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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

Archaeological records document a significant expansion of populations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~23–19 ka) to the early Holocene (EH, ~9 ka) in Eurasia, which is often attributed to the influence of orbital-scale climate changes. Yet, information remains limited concerning the climatic factor(s) which were responsible for conditioning demographic patterns. Here, in this work, we present results from an improved Minimalist Terrestrial Resource Model (MTRM), forced by a transient climate simulation from the LGM to the EH. Simulated potential hunter-gatherer population densities and spatial distributions across Eurasia are supported by observed archaeological sites in Europe and China. In the low latitudes, potential population size change was predominantly controlled by precipitation and its strong influence on plant and animal resources. In the middle-high latitudes, temperature was the dominant driver in influencing potential population size change and animal resource availability. Different regional responses of potential populations to climate change across Eurasia - owing to variations in available food resources between the LGM and EH - provide a better understanding of human dispersal during the Late Pleistocene.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Different Spatiotemporal Patterns in Global Human Population and Built‐Up Land

Abstract Population concentration and built‐up land expansion are two prominent features of contemporary urbanization. Existing literature on the population aspect of urbanization has mostly focused on national and regional aggregates, and literature on the land development aspect has often relied on spatial case studies of individual cities or their meta‐analyses. Using newly‐available data, here we conduct the first global‐coverage, spatial analysis of the relationship between (changes in) population and built‐up land at multiple spatial scales, and compare to existing common beliefs about urbanization based on individual city studies. We find that population and built‐up land show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns (with a global correlation coefficient around 0.6). Contrary to common impressions, our results show that during recent decades, developed and developing regions across the world experienced comparable amounts of built‐up land expansion. While meta‐analyses have reported that built‐up land in urban areas expands globally on average twice as fast as population grows, our results show the global change rates of built‐up land and population are similar. Also, most global population, including what national statistics agencies call urban population, reside in areas with low land development levels (which are frequently less than 5% built up). These changes in perspective suggest that urbanization's potential large‐scale impacts may need to be re‐evaluated, and lead to best‐practice recommendations for urbanization modeling and analysis. Especially, the common practice in large‐scale earth system modeling of assuming demographically‐defined urban population resides in areas with medium to high built‐up land development levels should change.

Gao, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thirdhand tobacco smoke exposure increases the genetic background-dependent risk of pan-tumor development in Collaborative Cross mice

Increasing evidence has shown that thirdhand smoke (THS) exposure is likely to induce adverse health effects. An important knowledge gap remains in our understanding of THS exposure related to cancer risk in the human population. Population-based animal models are useful and powerful in investigating the interplay between host genetics and THS exposure on cancer risk. Here, we used the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse population-based model system, which recapitulates the genetic and phenotypic diversity observed in the human population, to assess cancer risk after a short period of exposure, between 4 and 9 weeks of age. Eight CC strains (CC001, CC019, CC026, CC036, CC037, CC041, CC042 and CC051) were included in our study. We quantified pan-tumor incidence, tumor burden per mouse, organ tumor spectrum and tumor-free survival until 18 months of age. At the population level, we observed a significantly increased pan-tumor incidence and tumor burden per mouse in THS-treated mice as compared to the control (p = 3.04E-06). Lung and liver tissues exhibited the largest risk of undergoing tumorigenesis after THS exposure. Tumor-free survival was significantly reduced in THS-treated mice compared to control (p = 0.044). At the individual strain level, we observed a large variation in tumor incidence across the 8 CC strains. CC036 and CC041 exhibited a significant increase in pan-tumor incidence (p = 0.0084 and p = 0.000066, respectively) after THS exposure compared to control. We conclude that early-life THS exposure increases tumor development in CC mice and that host genetic background plays an important role in individual susceptibility to THS-induced tumorigenesis. Genetic background is an important factor that should be taken into account when determining human cancer risk of THS exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interspecies Transmission from Pigs to Ferrets of Antigenically Distinct Swine H1 Influenza A Viruses with Reduced Reactivity to Candidate Vaccine Virus Antisera as Measures of Relative Zoonotic Risk

During the last decade, endemic swine H1 influenza A viruses (IAV) from six different genetic clades of the hemagglutinin gene caused zoonotic infections in humans. The majority of zoonotic events with swine IAV were restricted to a single case with no subsequent transmission. However, repeated introduction of human-seasonal H1N1, continual reassortment between endemic swine IAV, and subsequent drift in the swine host resulted in highly diverse swine IAV with human-origin genes that may become a risk to the human population. To prepare for the potential of a future swine-origin IAV pandemic in humans, public health laboratories selected candidate vaccine viruses (CVV) for use as vaccine seed strains. To assess the pandemic risk of contemporary US swine H1N1 or H1N2 strains, we quantified the genetic diversity of swine H1 HA genes, and identified representative strains from each circulating clade. We then characterized the representative swine IAV against human seasonal vaccine and CVV strains using ferret antisera in hemagglutination inhibition assays (HI). HI assays revealed that 1A.3.3.2 (pdm09) and 1B.2.1 (delta-2) demonstrated strong cross reactivity to human seasonal vaccines or CVVs. However, swine IAV from three clades that represent more than 50% of the detected swine IAVs in the USA showed significant reduction in cross-reactivity compared to the closest CVV virus: 1A.1.1.3 (alpha-deletion), 1A.3.3.3-clade 3 (gamma), and 1B.2.2.1 (delta-1a). Representative viruses from these three clades were further characterized in a pig-to-ferret transmission model and shown to exhibit variable transmission efficiency. Our data prioritize specific genotypes of swine H1N1 and H1N2 to further investigate in the risk they pose to the human population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Deep Mutational Data and Machine Learning to Guide Outbreak and Pandemic Response

A significant fraction of pathogens known to infect humans originate in non-human (zoonotic) hosts (Taylor, Latham, and Woolhouse 2001), and new and emerging pathogens continue to spill over into the human population more frequently at an alarming rate (e.g., SARS, MERS, Cholera, etc.). The recent outbreaks of Ebola virus in West Africa and the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic demonstrate the need for rapid and reliable assessments of viral phenotype information to help inform scientists and policy makers how best to control the spread of disease. Further understanding of the virus pathogenic evolutionary space and potential trajectory could guide appropriate control measures to limit the spread of a new virus throughout the local and global human population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Global 30 Arcsecond Annual Global Gridded Population Datasets from 2000 to 2022

Abstract Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) annually develops the LandScan Global (LSG) dataset, a 30 arcsecond global gridded population dataset representing global ambient human population distribution. This multivariable dasymetric model disaggregates census counts within administrative boundaries using ancillary data. Each country’s distribution reflects cultural and socioeconomic patterns; manual validations yield a unique global dataset for assessing populations at risk. For over two decades, LSG has been a standard for estimating populations at risk, aiding U.S. federal government, academia and humanitarian organizations. During disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 Haiti earthquake and geopolitical crises such as the Syrian civil war and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, LSG supported scientific and operational communities in emergency response and recovery. In 2022, LSG datasets from 2000 onward were made publicly available through ORNL’s LandScan Portal. This data descriptor details our methodology and the application of geospatial science and machine learning to geographic and demographic data, highlighting uses in urban resiliency, emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on AIMS III Scenarios

This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what is known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. An emissions inventory represents who emits air pollutants, from where the pollutants are emitted, when, and how much of which air pollutants are emitted. With the assistance of the ASEAN Centre for Energy and leveraging the best available in-region public data sources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team compiled a detailed inventory of power plants in the ASEAN region, mapping their PM 2.5 , sulfur oxides (SOx), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. A new, first-of-its-kind, and user-friendly global air quality model, Global InMAP (Thakrar et al. 2022), is then used to transform the inventory of changes in emissions to changes in concentration of fine particulate matter. Global InMAP then maps the location of human populations in ASEAN countries to calculate humans' exposure to PM 2.5 and estimate excess PM 2.5 -caused mortality attributable to thermal generation sources, as modeled in the AIMS III scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The D614G mutation in Spike: increased infectivity and neutralizing Ab sensitivity and the underlying mechanism [Slides]

Evidence is presented that there are now more SARS-CoV-2 viruses circulating in the human population globally that have the G614 form that was originally identified from the first human cases in Wuhan, China. Follow-up studies show that patients infected with G614 shed more viral nucleic avid compared with those with D614 and G614-bearing viruses show significantly higher infectious titers in vitro than their D614 counterparts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A unified catalog of 204,938 reference genomes from the human gut microbiome

Comprehensive, high-quality reference genomes are required for functional characterization and taxonomic assignment of the human gut microbiota. We present the Unified Human Gastrointestinal Genome (UHGG) collection, comprising 204,938 nonredundant genomes from 4,644 gut prokaryotes. These genomes encode >170 million protein sequences, which we collated in the Unified Human Gastrointestinal Protein (UHGP) catalog. The UHGP more than doubles the number of gut proteins in comparison to those present in the Integrated Gene Catalog. More than 70% of the UHGG species lack cultured representatives, and 40% of the UHGP lack functional annotations. Intraspecies genomic variation analyses revealed a large reservoir of accessory genes and single-nucleotide variants, many of which are specific to individual human populations. The UHGG and UHGP collections will enable studies linking genotypes to phenotypes in the human gut microbiome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous dissection of grain carotenoid levels and kernel color in biparental maize populations with yellow-to-orange grain

Maize enriched in provitamin A carotenoids could be key in combatting vitamin A deficiency in human populations relying on maize as a food staple. Consumer studies indicate that orange maize may be regarded as novel and preferred. This study identifies genes of relevance for grain carotenoid concentrations and kernel color, through simultaneous dissection of these traits in 10 families of the US maize nested association mapping panel that have yellow to orange grain. Quantitative trait loci were identified via joint-linkage analysis, with phenotypic variation explained for individual kernel color quantitative trait loci ranging from 2.4% to 17.5%. These quantitative trait loci were cross-analyzed with significant marker-trait associations in a genome-wide association study that utilized ~27 million variants. Nine genes were identified: four encoding activities upstream of the core carotenoid pathway, one at the pathway branchpoint, three within the α- or β-pathway branches, and one encoding a carotenoid cleavage dioxygenase. Of these, three exhibited significant pleiotropy between kernel color and one or more carotenoid traits. Kernel color exhibited moderate positive correlations with β-branch and total carotenoids and negligible correlations with α-branch carotenoids. These findings can be leveraged to simultaneously achieve desirable kernel color phenotypes and increase concentrations of provitamin A and other priority carotenoids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Persistence of viral RNA in North American elk experimentally infected with an ancestral strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Abstract White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have emerged as a reservoir host for SARS-CoV-2 given their susceptibility to infection and demonstrated high rates of seroprevalence and infection across the United States. As SARS-CoV-2 circulates within free-ranging white-tailed deer populations, there is the risk of transmission to other wildlife species and even back to the human population. The goal of this study was to determine the susceptibility, shedding, and immune response of North American elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) to experimental infection with SARS-CoV-2, to determine if another wide-ranging cervid species could potentially serve as a reservoir host for the virus. Here we demonstrate that while North American elk do not develop clinical signs of disease, they do develop a neutralizing antibody response to infection, suggesting the virus is capable of replicating in this mammalian host. Additionally, we demonstrate SARS-CoV-2 RNA presence in the medial retropharyngeal lymph nodes of infected elk three weeks after experimental infection. Consistent with previous observations in humans, these data may highlight a mechanism of viral persistence for SARS-CoV-2 in elk.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

How the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought spread heat extremes around the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract Extraordinary heat extremes occurred in the 1930s in areas of the Northern Hemisphere far from the record setting heat over the US associated with the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought. A climate model sensitivity experiment is used to identify a new mechanism involving a warm season circumglobal atmospheric teleconnection pattern that spread heat extremes over far-flung areas of the Northern Hemisphere arising from the intense heating over the desiccated Great Plains themselves. It has only been in the twenty-first century that human populations in these regions of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced heat extremes comparable to the 1930s. This demonstrates that humans influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature and heat extremes through disastrous and unprecedented regional land use practices over the Great Plains, and points to the possibility that future intense regional droughts could affect heat extremes on hemispheric scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfires increasingly threaten oil and gas wells in the western United States with disproportionate impacts on marginalized populations

The western United States is home to most of the nation’s oil and gas production and, increasingly, wildfires. Here, we examined historical threats of wildfires for oil and gas wells, the extent to which wildfires are projected to threaten wells as climate change progresses, and exposure of human populations to these wells. From 1984 to 2019, we found that, cumulatively, 102,882 wells were located in wildfire burn areas, and 348,853 people were exposed (resided within ≤ 1 km). During this period, we observed a 5-fold increase in the number of wells in wildfire burn areas and a doubling of the population within 1 km of these wells. These trends are projected to increase by late century, likely threatening human health. Approximately 2.9 million people reside within 1 km of wells in areas with high wildfire risk, and Black, Hispanic, and Native American people have disproportionately high exposure to wildfire-threatened wells.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

AeDES: a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for environmental suitability of Aedes-borne disease transmission

Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endemic regions by travelers, who can become new sources of mosquito infection upon their return home if the exposed population is susceptible to the disease, and if suitable environmental conditions for the mosquitoes and the virus are present. Since the susceptibility of the human population can be determined via periodic monitoring campaigns, the environmental suitability for the presence of mosquitoes and viruses becomes one of the most important pieces of information for decision makers in the health sector. We present a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for Aedes-borne diseases’ environmental suitability (AeDES) of transmission in the conterminous United States and transboundary regions, using calibrated ento-epidemiological models, climate models and temperature observations. After analyzing the seasonal predictive skill of AeDES, we briefly consider the recent Zika epidemic, and the compound effects of the current Central American dengue outbreak happening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to illustrate how a combination of tailored deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can inform key prevention and control strategies .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beneficiaries, equity, and trade-offs in estuarine and coastal ecosystem services

Estuarine and coastal ecosystems support human populations in myriad ways. Traditionally, researchers have focused on the biophysical processes that underlie these benefits and their economic values. In the decade since the 1st Treatise, the literature on cultural ecosystem services, human health benefits, and the equitable distribution of societal benefits and burdens has grown tremendously. In this chapter we outline three dimensions of equity as they relate to estuarine and coastal ecosystems: procedural, recognitional, and distributional equity. We then apply the dimensions of equity to a suite of provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. Finally, we explore trade-offs and beneficiaries of these ecosystem services using three case studies that consider equity in a variety of estuarine and coastal management decisions.

beneficiaries↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scanning the RBD-ACE2 molecular interactions in Omicron variant

The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants poses a threat to the human population where it is difficult to assess the severity of a particular variant of the virus. Spike protein and specifically its receptor binding domain (RBD) which makes direct interaction with the ACE2 receptor of the human has shown prominent amino acid substitutions in most of the Variants of Concern. Here, in this work, by using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations we compare the interaction of Wild-type RBD/ACE2 receptor complex with that of the latest Omicron variant of the virus. We observed a very interesting diversification of the charge, dynamics and energetics of the protein complex formed upon mutations. These results would help us in understanding the molecular basis of binding of the Omicron variant with that of SARS-CoV-2 Wild-type.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human‐induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗