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At least 19 records

History Matching and Performance Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope (ANS) is ongoing. After more than 2.5 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is economically attractive.

Wang, Xindan↗

A machine-learning inverse model framework for rapid forecasting and history matching in unconventional reservoirs

Model-based optimization for real-time forecasting in unconventional reser-voirs requires novel methods and work?ows since the strategies and work?ows used in conventional reservoirs are either inapplicable, or prohibitively expen-sive and time-consuming. Insu?cient site data and computational expense of high-?delity simulations mean that work?ows with high-?delity simulations are not ideal for usage in comprehensive uncertainty quanti?cation stud-ies that require 1000s of forward model runs. We present an alternative, novel work?ow for unconventional reservoirs, based on the interplay between reduced-order models and machine-learning. Our physics-informed machine-learning (PIML) work?ow addresses the challenges to real-time reservoir management in uncoventionals, namely lack of data (the time-frame for which the wells have been producing), and computational expense of high-?delity modeling. We use the machine-learning paradigm of transfer-learning to bind together fast but less accurate reduced-order models with slow, but accurate high-?delity models and circumvent the di?culties inherent in the current state-of-the-art for unconventionals. Such a PIML work?ow, grounded in physics, is a viable candidate for real-time history matching and production forecasting in a fractured shale gas reservoir. The signi?cance of our approach is that while it is developed for a particu-lar well and site in the Marcelus Shale gas reservoir of the Appalachian basin (MSEEL), it is not wedded to it. We expect the same work?ow can be ap-plied to other shale formations (e.g., Woodford, Barnett, Utica, EagleFord) should site-data become available, using the same set of machine-learning techniques from transfer learning. Some ?ne-tuning (or minimal retraining of the neural networks) will be required to transfer knowledge across shale gas sites/formations but it is a clearly superior alternative to developing a new machine-learning model altogether when considering a di?erent site.

Srinivasan, Shriram↗

Optimization of the gamma reaction history diagnostic for double-shell pusher areal density and reaction history measurements on the National Ignition Facility

The double-shell inertial confinement fusion campaign, which consists of an aluminum ablator, a foam cushion, a high-Z pusher (tungsten or molybdenum), and liquid deuterium–tritium (DT) fuel, aims for its first DT filled implosions on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in 2024. The high-Z, high density pusher does not allow x-rays to escape the double-shell capsule. Therefore, nuclear diagnostics such as the Gamma Reaction History (GRH) diagnostic on the NIF are crucial for understanding high-Z implosion performance. To optimize the GRH measurement of fusion reaction history and the pusher’s areal density, the MCNP6.3-based forward model of the detector was built. When calculating the neutron-induced inelastic gamma ray production, the interaction of neutrons with the compressed fuel was additionally included. By folding the calculated gamma ray spectrum output and the previously calibrated GRH detector responses, the optimum set of GRH energy thresholds for measuring the pusher areal density is determined to be 2.9 and 6.3 MeV for DT double-shell experiments. In addition, the effect of the down-scattering of neutrons on the gamma ray spectrum, the minimum required yield for measurements, and the attenuation of the gamma rays through the pusher are analyzed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Podcast commemorating Black History Month, LANL history Lab Historian talks with member of first Black family to live in Los Alamos

The Lab is commemorating Black History Month with events, stories, and this podcast conversation between Lab Historian Madeline Whitacre and Clayborne Carson Jr.Carson Jr. was a member of what is thought to be the first Black family to live in Los Alamos. He was a young boy when his father, Clayborne Carson Sr., accepted a job with the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) as a security inspector in December 1947. The Carson family moved to Los Alamos shortly thereafter. Later, as a teenager, Carson Jr. worked at the Lab during the summers.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A History of Hanford Tank Waste, Implications for Waste Treatment and Disposal

More than 40 years of plutonium processing have left almost 56 million gallons of mixed radioactive waste sequestered in 177 underground tanks on the Hanford Site. Three different processing technologies were employed for plutonium purification in addition to uranium scavenging and fission product removal from the tank waste. All of these chemical processes have contributed to a complex waste stream that varies from tank to tank that presents downstream processing challenges to render the waste into a safe form for long-term storage. The current disposition pathway for Hanford tank waste is vitrification. To maximize waste loading and minimize the number of high-level waste canisters stored in a geologic repository, pretreatment of the waste is required. Both pretreatment and vitrification operations are impacted by the waste composition.

Separations, filtration, ion exchange↗

The Sporadic History of Rubidium and its Role in Corrosion of Steel Related to Nuclear Material Storage

The influence of rubidium (Rb), both in its metallic and oxidized states, on the corrosion resistance of steels has direct relevance to the storage of radioactive Kr-85 containing nuclear materials. Kr-85 undergoes a ß-decay to generate stable, metallic Rb. The literature to date is sparse, contained primarily in company reports and divisive as to whether Rb metal, or its oxides, can lead to corrosion of steel materials. In both the direct storage of Kr-85 and used nuclear fuel that will contain Kr-85, if Rb is corrosive then continual decay of the Kr-85 will generate an increasingly corrosive environment for the steel canister it is stored in. This review was written to consolidate the known data to date on Rb corrosion of steels to identify consistencies, contradictions and remaining gaps in our understanding of the Rb : steel system.

krypton, corrosion, steel, Rubidium↗

Forward Modeling of Gamma Reaction History Signatures From Anticipated Deuterium-Tritium Filled MagLIF Implosions on Sandia’s Z-Machine

Nuclear reaction history measurements provide a bang time and burn width of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) implosions and are essential for understanding implosion performance to constrain ICF capsule design. When fusion fuel contains Deuterium (D) and Tritium (T) gas, reaction history is informed by measuring the 16.75 MeV gamma rays generated from the D(T,γ) 5 He reaction. Such DT based reaction history measurements have not been made on the Magnetized Laser Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) platform on Sandia’s Z-Machine due to the lack of Tritium being used. The recent development of ICF implosions with tritiated fuel will open the possibility of measuring the gamma reaction history on the Z-Machine. A forward model of the Gamma Reaction History diagnostic on Z (GRH-Z) has been developed using the MCNP6.3 (Monte-Carlo N-Particle) radiation transport code. The model included the Z-Machine geometry of interest to characterize the impact of neutron induced gamma rays on the DT reaction history measurements. In addition, the impulse response functions of the GRH-Z diagnostic to understand the temporal response of the detector, and the minimum yields required to make a reaction history measurement were calculated. This approach also predicted that with T 2 gas doping of MagLIF implosions a reaction history may be made for high performance shots >8e12-2.4e13 depending on the chosen threshold for the detector, with a maximum signal to background ratio of 25%. It was found that for long duration ICF implosions that additional collimation will be needed to prevent the neutron induced gamma rays from modifying the shape of the measured DT reaction history curve.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Concentrations of dark haloes emerge from their merger histories

ABSTRACT The concentration parameter is a key characteristic of a dark matter halo that conveniently connects the halo’s present-day structure with its assembly history. Using ‘Dark Sky’, a suite of cosmological N-body simulations, we investigate how halo concentration evolves with time and emerges from the mass assembly history. We also explore the origin of the scatter in the relation between concentration and assembly history. We show that the evolution of halo concentration has two primary modes: (1) smooth increase due to pseudo-evolution; and (2) intense responses to physical merger events. Merger events induce lasting and substantial changes in halo structures, and we observe a universal response in the concentration parameter. We argue that merger events are a major contributor to the uncertainty in halo concentration at fixed halo mass and formation time. In fact, even haloes that are typically classified as having quiescent formation histories experience multiple minor mergers. These minor mergers drive small deviations from pseudo-evolution, which cause fluctuations in the concentration parameters and result in effectively irreducible scatter in the relation between concentration and assembly history. Hence, caution should be taken when using present-day halo concentration parameter as a proxy for the halo assembly history, especially if the recent merger history is unknown.

Wang, Kuan↗

Reinforcement learning based automated history matching for improved hydrocarbon production forecast

History matching aims to find a numerical reservoir model that can be used to predict the reservoir performance. An engineer and model calibration (data inversion) method are required to adjust various parameters/properties of the numerical model in order to match the reservoir production history. In this study, we develop deep neural networks within the reinforcement learning framework to achieve automated history matching that will reduce engineers’ efforts, human bias, automatically and intelligently explore the parameter space, and remove the need of large set of labeled training data. To that end, a fast-marching-based reservoir simulator is encapsulated as an environment for the proposed reinforcement learning. The deep neural-network-based learning agent interacts with the reservoir simulator within reinforcement learning framework to achieve the automated history matching. Reinforcement learning techniques, such as discrete Deep Q Network and continuous Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients, are used toth, used to train the learning agents. The continuous actions enable the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients to explore more states at each iteration in a a learning episode; consequently, a better history matching is achieved using this algorithm as compared to Deep Q Network. For simplified dual-target composite reservoir models, the best history-matching performances of the discrete and continuous learning methods in terms of normalized root mean square errors are 0.0447 and 0.0038, respectively. Furthermore, our study shows that continuous action space achieved by the deep deterministic policy gradient drastically outperforms deep Q network.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prevalence of Americans reporting a family history of cancer indicative of increased cancer risk: Estimates from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey

The collection and evaluation of family health history in a clinical setting presents an opportunity to discuss cancer risk, tailor cancer screening recommendations, and identify people with an increased risk of carrying a pathogenic variant who may benefit from referral to genetic counseling and testing. National recommendations for breast and colorectal cancer screening indicate that men and women who have a first-degree relative affected with these types of cancers may benefit from talking to a healthcare provider about starting screening at an earlier age and other options for cancer prevention. The prevalence of reporting a first-degree relative who had cancer was assessed among adult respondents of the 2015 National Health Interview Survey who had never had cancer themselves (n = 27,999). We found 35.6% of adults reported having at least one first-degree relative with cancer at any site. Significant differences in reporting a family history of cancer were observed by sex, age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and census region. Nearly 5% of women under age 50 and 2.5% of adults under age 50 had at least one first-degree relative with breast cancer or colorectal cancer, respectively. We estimated that 5.8% of women had a family history of breast or ovarian cancer that may indicate increased genetic risk. A third of U.S. adults who have never had cancer report a family history of cancer in a first-degree relative. Furthermore, this finding underscores the importance of using family history to inform discussions about cancer risk and screening options between healthcare providers and their patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Life history strategies among soil bacteria—dichotomy for few, continuum for many

Abstract Study of life history strategies may help predict the performance of microorganisms in nature by organizing the complexity of microbial communities into groups of organisms with similar strategies. Here, we tested the extent that one common application of life history theory, the copiotroph-oligotroph framework, could predict the relative population growth rate of bacterial taxa in soils from four different ecosystems. We measured the change of in situ relative growth rate to added glucose and ammonium using both 18O–H2O and 13C quantitative stable isotope probing to test whether bacterial taxa sorted into copiotrophic and oligotrophic groups. We saw considerable overlap in nutrient responses across most bacteria regardless of phyla, with many taxa growing slowly and few taxa that grew quickly. To define plausible life history boundaries based on in situ relative growth rates, we applied Gaussian mixture models to organisms’ joint 18O–13C signatures and found that across experimental replicates, few taxa could consistently be assigned as copiotrophs, despite their potential for fast growth. When life history classifications were assigned based on average relative growth rate at varying taxonomic levels, finer resolutions (e.g., genus level) were significantly more effective in capturing changes in nutrient response than broad taxonomic resolution (e.g., phylum level). Our results demonstrate the difficulty in generalizing bacterial life history strategies to broad lineages, and even to single organisms across a range of soils and experimental conditions. We conclude that there is a continued need for the direct measurement of microbial communities in soil to advance ecologically realistic frameworks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A note on thermal history kernel for unsteady heat transfer of a spherical particle

When a particle is subjected to an unsteady ambient flow, in terms of either time-dependent relative velocity or time-dependent temperature difference, the net heat transfer from the particle cannot be calculated based on the quasi-steady heat transfer correlation alone. Due to unsteady evolution of the thermal boundary layer, there is also a history contribution to heat transfer. The history contribution to heat transfer is expressed as a convolution integral of past evolution of temperature difference between the particle and the surrounding. While Basset history force and its finite Reynolds number extension have been well studied, similar understanding of unsteady heat transfer and thermal history kernel is lacking. Here, we use existing particle-resolved simulation results to develop a finite Peclet number thermal history kernel, which when used with the convolution integral is demonstrated to accurately predict unsteady heat transfer over a range of Peclet numbers and particle-to-fluid heat capacity ratio.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nondestructive geochemical characterization of fossil hominin taphonomy and burial history

To date, only three Homo habilis specimens have been discovered that have associated craniodental and postcranial elements, providing a limited fossil record of the ontogeny and morphology of early members of the genus Homo. Recently, a nearly complete dentition, likely attributable to H. habilis, was discovered and excavated from early Pleistocene-age fluvial-lacustrine sediments of the upper Burgi Member of the Koobi Fora Formation at site F25787 in Area 13, near Ileret, Kenya. On the surface less than 15 m away, at site F25966, postcranial elements were found, which, if from the same individual as the nearby dentition, would represent the fourth associated craniodental and postcranial assemblage of this species. We developed a geochemical taphonomic history of these ca. 2 Ma hominin fossils using nondestructive X-ray based microanalytical tools (synchrotron and benchtop X-ray fluorescence chemical imaging and micro- and nano-computed tomography volumetric reconstruction), bulk analyses of sediments and paleosols at the excavation sites, and sedimentologic and stratigraphic observations. We integrate the chemical and physical taphonomic histories to test whether teeth (excavated in situ) and postcranial bones (eroded onto the outcrop surface) derive from a single individual. Minor differences in taphonomic history are attributable to the different biomineral properties of the dental and osseous components and to differences in physical damage during early post-mortem scavenging, dispersal, and burial in adjacent depositional settings. Microscale geochemical mapping enabled the temporal ordination of chemical and physical events in the specimens’ chemical taphonomic histories. Specifically, authigenic Fe- and K-bearing clays and Y, U, and Sr uptake occurred in post-burial fractures in bones and were also incorporated pervasively throughout dentin in teeth. Barite mineralization occurred along the latest fractures in both materials, and as a coating on tooth roots. The stratigraphic, taphonomic, and geochemical evidence supports the interpretation that the hominin fossils represent a single individual. Finally, successful application of these nondestructive sample characterization methods demonstrates capabilities for thorough interrogation of the taphonomic histories of other potential hominin fossil associations, enabling more robust and accurate palaeontologic constraints using those relationships.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Life history strategies of soil bacterial communities across global terrestrial biomes

The life history strategies of soil microbes determine their metabolic potential and their response to environmental changes. Yet these strategies remain poorly understood. Here we use shotgun metagenomes from terrestrial biomes to characterize overarching covariations of the genomic traits that capture dominant life history strategies in bacterial communities. The emerging patterns show a triangle of life history strategies shaped by two trait dimensions, supporting previous theoretical and isolate-based studies. The first dimension ranges from streamlined genomes with simple metabolisms to larger genomes and expanded metabolic capacities. As metabolic capacities expand, bacterial communities increasingly differentiate along a second dimension that reflects a trade-off between increasing capacities for environmental responsiveness or for nutrient recycling. Random forest analyses show that soil pH, C:N ratio and precipitation patterns together drive the dominant life history strategy of soil bacterial communities and their biogeographic distribution. Finally, our findings provide a trait-based framework to compare life history strategies of soil bacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine-Learning-Based Multiscale Methods for 3D Modelling of Granular Materials by Incorporating History-Dependent State Variables

Over the past decades, the prevalence of machine learning (ML) methods has made the development of ML-based constitutive models for granular materials undoubtedly a popular subject. Numerous studies have been made to feature the loading path or history-dependent stress-strain response of granular media using neural networks. In this work, a novel finite element method (FEM)–ML multiscale approach was developed by incorporating internal variables to improve the simulation accuracy of 3D history-dependent granular materials for the first time. To this end, a surrogate constitutive model based on the single-step-based multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network was used to replace representative volume element (RVE) simulations conducted by the discrete element method (DEM) in the multiscale FEM–DEM approach. Although the prediction principle of the MLP aligns with the FEM algorithm, artificially added internal variables are required to differentiate the loading history. To address this issue, history variables associated with the Frobenius norm are proposed to be fed into the MLP coupled with the strain tensor to extract the history-dependent behaviour of granular assemblies. The developed FEM–ML approach was demonstrated in 3D conventional triaxial compression (CTC) simulations. Compared to the multiscale FEM–DEM approach, the proposed FEM–ML method exhibits a significantly improved computational efficiency.

granular materials↗

Reconstruction of the Room D, B, G, and Q Closure Histories at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Experimental measurements of room closure in salt repositories are valuable for understanding the evolution of the underground and for validating geomechanical models. Room closure was measured during a number of experiments at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) during the 1980's and 1990's. Most rooms were excavated using a multi-pass mining sequence, where each pass necessarily destroyed some of the mining sequence closure measurement points. These destroyed points were promptly reinstalled to capture the closure after the mining pass. After the room was complete, the mining sequence closure measurement stations were supplemented with remotely read closure measurement stations. Although many aspects of these experiments were thoroughly documented, the digital copies of the closure data were inadvertently destroyed, the non-trivial process of zeroing and shifting the raw closure measurements after each mining pass was not precisely described, the various closure measurements within a given room were not directly compared on the same plot, and the measurements were collected for several years longer than previously reported. Consequently, the hand-written mining sequence closure measurements for Rooms D, B, G, and Q were located in the WIPP archives, digitized, and reanalyzed for this report. The process of reconstructing the mining sequence closure histories was documented in detail and the raw data can be found in the appendices. Within the mid-section of a given room, the reconstructed closure histories were largely consistent with other mining sequence and remotely read closure histories, which builds confidence in the experiments and suggests that plane strain is an appropriate modeling assumption. The reconstructed closure histories were also reasonably consistent with previously published results, except in one notable case: the reconstructed Room Q closure histories 30 days after excavation were about 45 % less than the corresponding closures reported in Munson's 1997 capstone paper.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The History of MCNP and about 20 Related Programs

The history of the MCNP code is a long and complicated one that touches a huge number of other software packages over the decades. This document will attempt to place the direct lineage of the MCNP code into a single document and track the people who worked on and around the software. This report is necessarily incomplete. The author only has access to the LANL archives, which have gaps in key areas. Speculation will be used to fill gaps where necessary. It is hoped that future revisions will have more detail than this report, especially as others come forward with their knowledge. The history will be broken into a few segments. Sec. 1 will go through the low-energy history from MCS to MCNP version 4. In Sec. 2, the history of high-energy physics from Oak Ridge’s NTC to MCNP version 6 will be discussed. Sec. 3 will go through some important notes to complete this history. Finally, Sec. 4 contains a chart of the lineage of the code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nuclear history, politics, and futures from (A)toms-to(Z)oom: Design and deployment of a remote-learning special-topics course for nuclear engineering education

To address the lack of familiarity with nuclear history common among nuclear engineers and physicists, we outline the design and deployment of a special-topics course entitled “NE290: Nuclear History, Politics, and Futures” throughout which we contextualize the importance of the field at its inception, in current affairs, and in future endeavors. We argue that understanding this history is paramount in internalizing a sense of respect for the scientific, technical, and sociological ramifications of an unlocked atom—as well as its perils. We begin by outlining the gaps in secondary educational offerings for nuclear history and their importance in consideration with nontechnical engineering guidelines. We then outline a number of ABET specifications as pedagogical goals for NE290 from which we derive a list of target student learning objectives. Next, we outline the NE290 syllabus in terms of assignments and an overview of course content in the form of a class timeline. We provide an extensive description of the materials and teaching methodologies for the four units of NE290: Twentieth-Century Physics, Physics in WWII, the Early Cold War, and the Late Cold War and Modern Era. We detail the sequence of lectures across the course and historical timelines leading up to a showcasing of NE290 final projects which mirror in creativity the novelty of course offering. Because NE290 was first offered during Spring 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, additional measures in the form of new tools were used to augment the mandate of remote learning. In particular, we leveraged the newfound ubiquity of videoconferencing technology to recruit geographically diverse guest lecturers and used the MIRO tool for virtual whiteboarding. Lastly, we provide an accounting of course outcomes drawn from student feedback which—in tandem with the complete distribution of course material—facilitates the integration of nuclear history into the curriculum for the wider nuclear engineering and physics communities.

Berliner, Aaron J.↗