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DOE OSTI2025

popclass: A Python Package for Classifying Microlensing Events

popclass is a Python package that provides a flexible, probabilistic framework for classifying the lens of a gravitational microlensing event. Gravitational microlensing occurs when a massive foreground object (e.g., a star, white dwarf or black hole) passes in front of and lenses the light from a distant background source. This causes an apparent brightening, and shift in position, of the background source. In most cases, characteristics of the microlensing signal do not contain enough information to definitively identify the lens type. Different lens types lie in different but overlapping regions of the characteristics of the microlensing signal. For example, black holes tend to be more massive than stars and therefore cause microlensing signals that are longer. Current Galactic simulations enable us to predict where different lens types lie in the observational space and can therefore be used to classify events (e.g., Lam et al., 2020). popclass allows the user to match the characteristics of a microlensing signal with a simulation of the Galaxy to calculate lens type probabilities for the event (see Figure 1). Constraints on any microlensing signal properties and any Galactic model can be used. popclass comes with an interface to ArviZ (Kumar et al., 2019) and PyMultiNest (Buchner et al., 2014) for microlensing signal constraints, as well as pre-loaded Galactic models, plotting functionality, and methods to quantify the classification uncertainty. The probabilistic framework for popclass was developed in Perkins et al. (2024), used in Fardeen et al. (2024) and has been applied to classifying events in Kaczmarek et al. (2025).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the galaxy resulting from the deaths of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing, which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events, based on characteristics of their light curves, to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on small subsets of events. In this paper, we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on light-curve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing light-curve parameters, making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass Python package. We apply the classifier to ~10,000 microlensing events from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey and find 23 high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier, according to current Galactic models, and the allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NSs) might provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection will become available: astrometric microlensing. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We used dedicated Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. In addition to populations of stars, white dwarfs, and black holes, we simulated four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: v = (150, 250, 350, 450) km/s. For each simulation, we applied projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We found that the parameter space log10 t E –log 10 θ E , which will be accessible to Roman observations, is efficient for the classification of stellar remnants. We found a feature in this space that is characteristic of NSs; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman -like datasets. We describe the dependence of the observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest that more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NSs are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate that Roman will observe approximately 11 000 microlensing events, including ~100 with NS lenses, whose photometric and astrometric signals are detectable; the event yield decreases by 38% when gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The La Silla Schmidt Southern Survey

We present the La Silla Schmidt Southern Survey (LS4), a new wide-field, time-domain survey to be conducted with the 1 m ESO Schmidt telescope. The 268 megapixel LS4 camera mosaics 32 2k × 4k fully depleted CCDs, providing a ∼20 deg 2 field of view with 1″ pixel −1 resolution. The LS4 camera will have excellent performance at longer wavelengths: in a standard 45 s exposure the expected 5σ limiting magnitudes in g, i, z are ∼21.5, ∼20.9, and ∼20.3 mag (AB), respectively. The telescope design requires a novel filter holder that fixes different bandpasses over each quadrant of the detector. Two quadrants will have i band, while the other two will be g and z band with color information obtained by dithering targets across the different quadrants. The majority (90%) of the observing time will be used to conduct a public survey that monitors the extragalactic sky at both moderate (3 days) and high (1 day) cadence, as well as focused observations within the Galactic plane and bulge. Alerts from the public survey will be broadcast to the community via established alert brokers. LS4 will run concurrently with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The combination of LS4+LSST will enable detailed holistic monitoring of many nearby transients: high-cadence LS4 observations will resolve the initial rise and peak of the light curve while less-frequent but deeper observations by LSST will characterize the years before and after explosion. Here, we summarize the primary science objectives of LS4 including microlensing events in the Galaxy, extragalactic transients powered by massive black holes or stellar explosions, the search for electromagnetic counterparts to multi-messenger events, and supernova cosmology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phenomenology of bubble size distributions in a first-order phase transition

In a cosmological first-order phase transition (FOPT), the true and false vacuum bubble radius distributions are not expected to be monochromatic, as is usually assumed. Consequently, Fermi balls (FBs) and primordial black holes (PBHs) produced in a dark FOPT will have extended mass distributions. We show how gravitational wave (GW), microlensing and Hawking evaporation signals for extended bubble radius/mass distributions deviate from the case of monochromatic distributions. The peak of the GW spectrum is shifted to lower frequencies, and the spectrum is broadened at frequencies below the peak frequency. Thus, the radius distribution of true vacuum bubbles introduces another uncertainty in the evaluation of the GW spectrum from a FOPT. The extragalactic gamma-ray signal at AMEGO-X/e-ASTROGAM from PBH evaporation may evince a break in the power-law spectrum between 5 MeV and 10 MeV for an extended PBH mass distribution. Optical microlensing surveys may observe PBH mass distributions with average masses below 10 -10 M ⊙ , which is not possible for monochromatic mass distributions. This expands the FOPT parameter space that can be explored with microlensing.

Marfatia, Danny [Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolul↗

DOE OSTI2025

Primordial black holes from first-order phase transition in the singlet-extended SM

Supercooled first-order phase transition (FOPT) can lead to the formation of primordial black holes (PBHs). This scenario imposes stringent requirements on the profile of the effective potential. In this work, we use the singlet extended Standard Model (xSM) as a benchmark model to investigate this possibility at the electroweak scale. The PBHs formed during a supercooled FOPT have a narrow mass distribution around the mass of Earth. This distribution is closely tied to the temperature at which the PBHs form, corresponding to the FOPT at the electroweak scale. This scenario can be probed with microlensing experiments, space-based gravitational wave detectors, and collider experiments. Remarkably, the future space-based gravitational wave detector LISA will hold the potential to either confirm this scenario that leads to PBH formation across the observable Universe in the xSM or completely rule it out. Interestingly, our findings suggest that PBHs within the xSM framework may align with observations of the six ultrashort timescale events reported by the OGLE microlensing experiment. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Gonçalves, Dorival (ORCID:0000000342234238)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Primordial black holes and magnetic fields in conformal neutrino mass models

Sufficiently strong and long-lasting first-order phase transitions can produce primordial black holes (PBHs) that contribute substantially to the dark matter abundance of the Universe, and can produce large-scale primordial magnetic fields. Here, we study these mechanisms in a generic class of conformal U(1)' models that also explain active neutrino oscillation data via the type-I seesaw mechanism. We find that phase transitions that occur at seesaw scales between 10 4 GeV and 10 11 GeV produce gravitational wave signals (from the dynamics of the phase transition and from the decay of cosmic string loops) at LISA/ET that can be correlated with microlensing signals of PBHs at the Roman Space Telescope, while scales near 10 11 GeV can be correlated with Hawking evaporation signals at future gamma-ray telescopes. LISA can probe the entire range of PBH masses between 1 × 10 -16 M ⊙ and 8 × 10 -11 M ⊙ if PBHs fully account for the dark matter abundance. For Z' masses between 40 TeV and 10 4 TeV, and 10 TeV right-handed neutrinos, helical magnetic fields can be produced with magnitudes ≳ 0.5 pG and coherence lengths ≳ 0.008 Mpc, above current blazar lower bounds.

cosmological phase transitions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identification of more than 40 gravitationally magnified stars in a galaxy at redshift 0.725

Strong gravitational magnification enables the detection of faint background sources and allows researchers to resolve their internal structures and even identify individual stars in distant galaxies. Highly magnified individual stars are useful in various applications, including studies of stellar populations in distant galaxies and constraining dark matter structures in the lensing plane. However, these applications have been hampered by the small number of individual stars observed, as typically one or a few stars are identified from each distant galaxy. Here, we report the discovery of more than 40 microlensed stars in a single galaxy behind Abell 370 at redshift of 0.725 (dubbed ‘the Dragon arc’) when the Universe was half of its current age, using James Webb Space Telescope observations with the time-domain technique. These events were found near the expected lensing critical curves, suggesting that these are magnified stars that appear as transients from intracluster stellar microlenses. Through multi-wavelength photometry, we constrained their stellar types and found that many of them are consistent with red giants or supergiants magnified by factors of hundreds. Furthermore, this finding reveals a high occurrence of microlensing events in the Dragon arc and demonstrates that time-domain observations by the James Webb Space Telescope could lead to the possibility of conducting statistical studies of high-redshift stars.

Early universe↗