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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Boundary Element Model for Assessing Large‐Scale Pressurization in Faulted Geological Storage Systems

Assessing large-scale pressurization at the regional scale—a possible outcome of large subsurface storage applications such as wastewater injection and geological carbon sequestration—presents significant computational challenges. These challenges are particularly pronounced when accounting for complex geologic structures with multiple reservoir and caprock layers, fault zones, and wells. This study introduces a computationally efficient model that integrates single-phase semi-analytical solutions with a boundary element (BE) approach. The model simulates pressure propagation in multilayered 3D systems, including vertical faults, caprock, basement, and confining units. We apply this new model to a representative scenario involving CO 2 injection near a partially sealing fault with verification against an independent two-phase flow model. Results demonstrate that our model accurately captures far-field pressure responses and that, outside the CO 2 plume zone, pressure predictions from single-phase and two-phase models are nearly identical. This supports the use of single-phase models like ours for efficient estimation of far-field pressure changes. Additionally, we demonstrate its effectiveness at a large scale, incorporating multiple wells and faults. With its ability to represent multiple wells, fault zones, and geological heterogeneity, our model is well suited for assessments of basin-scale pressurization. Its computational efficiency also makes it a promising tool for integration with optimization frameworks aimed at designing and managing injection strategies in faulted storage systems.

Cihan, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seismicity-constrained fault detection and characterization with a multitask machine learning model

Geological fault detection and characterization are crucial for understanding subsurface dynamics across scales. While methods for fault delineation based on either seismicity location analysis or seismic image reflector discontinuity are well-established, a systematic approach that integrates both data types remains absent. We develop a novel machine learning model that unifies seismic reflector images and seismicity location information to automatically identify geological faults and characterize their geometrical properties. The model encodes a seismic image and a seismicity location image separately, and fuses the encoded features with a spatial-channel attention fusion module to improve the learning of important features in both inputs. We design an automated strategy to generate high-quality synthetic training data and labels. To improve the realism of the seismicity location image, we include random seismicity noise and missing seismicity location associated with some of the faults. We validate the model’s efficacy and accuracy using synthetic data examples and two field data examples. Moreover, we show that fine-tuning the trained model with a small, domain-specific dataset enhances its fidelity for field data applications. The results demonstrate that integrating seismicity location and seismic images into a unified framework allows the end-to-end neural network to achieve higher fidelity and accuracy in delineating subsurface faults and their geometrical properties compared with image-only fault detection methods. Our approach offers an adaptive data-driven tool for geological fault characterization and seismic hazard mitigation, bridging the gap between seismicity location and image-based fault detection methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factors controlling injection-induced rupture of intersecting faults during geological sequestration of CO 2

This study addresses coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics effects on potential fault activation associated with subsurface CO 2 injection around intersecting faults. An enhanced fault-representation model is used to capture geomechanical responses of two intersecting faults with finite length during CO 2 injection. The faults are embedded in a strike-slip stress regime of a caprock-reservoir-basement system with the faults represented by zero-thickness interfaces with adjacent finite-thickness damage zones. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effect of fault permeability, slip-weakening behavior, well location relative to the orientation of faults, and well placement (the number and location of injection wells). Five metrics (pressure, CO 2 plume, shear state on the fault, as well as shear displacement and stress path at selected fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO 2 migration and reactivation of intersecting faults. The results show that induced ruptures are favored by low permeability faults due to high pressure buildup and by slip-weakening behavior resulting from fault strength reduction. The location of one injection well relative to fault orientation determines the magnitude of changes in effective normal stress and shear stress, affecting the location of induced ruptures. Well placement (two injection wells used in the paper) dominates pressure diffusion around the intersection and tips of faults. This redistributes changes in effective normal stress caused by each injection well, influencing the spatial distribution of ruptures along faults. A larger injection volume induces far-field ruptures that are controlled by stress transfer within the injection layer. The findings presented here can provide valuable insights into engineering operations for a long-term, safe, and reliable geologic CO 2 storage.

Fault permeability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subsurface Energy Systems Mapping Inquiry Tool (MapIT)

The Subsurface Energy Systems Mapping Inquiry Tool (MapIT) is an online web mapping tool designed to help users discover available public-sourced data to facilitate data exploration for subsurface energy exploration and characterization efforts for resource identification (e.g. critical minerals, hydrocarbons, geothermal) as well as injection of geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide (e.g. enhanced oil recovery, saline storage, etc.). Modules within the tool curate data related to geology, faults, fractures, injection and confining zones, hydrologic information, groundwater, groundwater wells, geomechanical and petrophysical data, and geochemical data. User documentation on how to use the tool is also provided. Data have been collected from authoritative national, state, and local sources and made available in this tool. The data is also available as a data catalog and Esri Geodatabase at: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/mapit-database Disclaimer: There is no guarantee of completeness or appropriateness for individual user’s requirements. Use of this tool is solely at the discretion of the user. See full Federal Disclaimer for further information (https://netl.doe.gov/home/disclaimer). This project was funded by the United States Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, in part, through a site support contract. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor the support contractor, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. https://www.netl.doe.gov/home/disclaimer

Carbon Sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗
DOE OSTI2026

A robust framework for frictional fault contact in geological formations using a stabilized augmented Lagrangian approach

Numerical simulations are essential to evaluate the performance and safety of engineered subsurface systems such as geological carbon storage sites, enhanced geothermal fields, and oil and gas reservoirs. A key challenge lies in accurately modeling the frictional contact behavior along fault surfaces. This problem involves inequality constraints that arise from the physics of frictional slip, requiring specialized numerical methods to handle the resulting highly nonlinear and path-dependent behavior. Here, in this work, we address this challenge using an Augmented Lagrangian Method (ALM) implemented via the Uzawa algorithm. The formulation employs mixed finite element spaces, combining low-order piecewise linear displacements within the 3D domain cells with piecewise constant tractions defined on the fault surfaces. Furthermore, to ensure stability and satisfy the inf-sup condition, the discrete displacement space is enriched with face bubble functions on both sides of the contact interfaces. This approach offers several advantages over other stabilization techniques that rely on additional terms, and it integrates naturally in the Uzawa framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying recharge sources and their impacts on a North Central New Mexico shallow aquifer using unsupervised machine learning

In this article, shallow aquifers are important but highly variable resources in arid to semi-arid regions. Limited shallow aquifer volume results in high sensitivity to recharge fluctuations, which can impact the local fauna and flora, and transport of contaminants in the aquifer or vadose zone. Aquifer response to external forcing (e.g., precipitation) is usually solved by estimating aquifer parameters and running physics-based models to match known fluctuations of hydraulic head. However, this technique is time and computationally expensive. Furthermore, high aquifer complexity decreases precision in physics-based models. Alternatively supervised machine learning is used to predict aquifer dynamics. However, these techniques rely on input data and struggle to interpret aquifer response for missing sources (i.e., snowpack data). To counter these problems, we propose an unsupervised machine learning technique (NMFk) to estimate the impact of different sources on aquifer recharge. NMFk is used to understand the influence of external forcing on shallow aquifer recharge in the Pajarito Plateau (Los Alamos, NM, USA). The results show how NMFk can be used to reduce the data dimension in a complex field dataset to three recharge signals that cause fluctuations within the field data. Here, the source signals are interpreted as rainfall, snowmelt, and a delayed aquifer response to the previous two signals. These results evidence how heterogeneous aquifers delimited by canyons incised into the Pajarito Plateau respond in similar ways to the source signals identified by NMFk. Furthermore, results show the importance of the local geology where faults act as sinks, and anthropogenic disturbances can facilitate infiltration amplifying the interpreted signal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MRCI Subtask 2.2: Precambrian Basement Structure, Faulting, and Stress Final Technical Summary Report

Subtask 2.2 was largely focused on compiling information about the Precambrian basement rock that underlies the MRCI region. Understanding the nature and extent of the basement rock is important in order to mitigate certain risks associated with CO2 injection. For example, this information will provide a resource for defining areas where a storage reservoir is in direct contact with the Precambrian or indirectly via a fault. Also, an understanding of the stress field in addition to fault orientations will help determine which faults may be subject to reactivation under increased pore pressures.

Battelle,CCS,CCUS,Carbon storage,MRCI,Midwest Regi↗
DOE OSTI2024

RGM: Random Geological Model Generation Package

This Fortran code is to accompany a manuscript to be submitted to Computers & Geosciences, a high-impact, peer-reviewed journal in computer methods for geosciences research. This Fortran code focuses on generation of synthetic geological models using a multi-randomization strategy. Generating high-fidelity synthetic geological models, including realistic seismic reflector migration images, faults, salt bodies, and relative geological time images, is the key for many supervised machine learning methods that aim to delineate faults and other geological properties of interest from seismic migration images. Our package contains two major functionalities: generating 2D synthetic random geological models and generating 3D synthetic random geological models. In each step of the generation process, we set random values for key properties of a geological model to improve the fidelity of the resulting geological model. The package also includes example codes on how to use the random geological model generation subroutines. We name this package RGM – Random Geological Model generation package.

Gao, Kai↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D Geologic Framework Modelling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Site and Pajarito Plateau: Integrating a realistic 3D fault network and modelling subsurface relationships in a sparsely sampled and complex geologic region

The subsurface geology beneath the Pajarito Plateau is critical to understanding the seismic hazard of the Pajarito Fault System, yet our understanding of this geology is relatively poor. While previous 3D geologic framework models of the area have been created for the purposes of understanding hydrogeologic flow, they are inadequate for the purposes of understanding the Pajarito Fault System. The specific challenges of using oil and gas software for this purpose include: (1) the geologic complexities resulting from volcanism and tectonism; (2) a need for a high level of stratigraphic detail over a large area; (3) a near complete lack of seismic data; and (4) sparse wellbore data. Presented here is a workflow that handles these challenges of adapting commercially available software used by the oil and gas industries to this seismic hazard problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled geomechanical investigation of depletion-induced fault reactivation

Fault reactivation during subsurface fluid production pose significant challenges to safe and sustainable resource extraction. Here, this study presents a three-dimensional coupled geomechanical framework to investigate the processes driving fault reactivation, capturing the interactions between reservoir dynamics and geomechanical responses. Verification against theoretical estimations based on linear poroelasticity confirms the model's capacity in representing reservoir background stress responses. However, the study reveals that relying solely on background stress states can underestimate or overestimate fault reactivation potential, emphasizing the importance of including localized stress perturbations such as differential compaction and stress redistribution. Applied to a fault (M1) inspired by the geological characteristics of the Groningen field, the model shows slip initiation at 2965 m depth with 16.0 MPa depletion, aligning with field observations where seismicity occurred at approximately 3 km depth after 15.8 MPa depletion. Parametric studies reveal: (1) inelastic reservoir compaction delays fault reactivation and mitigates fault slip by reducing stress concentration, (2) higher intermediate in-situ stress magnitudes decrease the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) increase rate and reduce fault slip, (3) larger fault offsets amplify shear stress near the offset zone, promoting earlier reactivation and longer rupture propagation, and (4) fault permeability significantly influences pressure diffusion, with low-permeability faults leading to sharper stress changes and earlier fault destabilization. These insights highlight the critical role of geological and mechanical parameters in fault reactivation and provide a predictive framework for mitigating induced seismicity risks.

Coupled geomechanical modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generation of random geological models using multi-randomization for machine learning

Generating high-fidelity geological models is essential for advancing machine learning (ML) methods in automated seismic interpretation. For instance, seismic images paired with corresponding fault labels are foundational for ML-based fault detection from seismic migration sections. While several open-access datasets of random geological models exist, open-source tools specifically designed to produce large volumes of such models for ML applications remain scarce. To address this gap, we present RGM (Random Geological Model), an open-source software package for efficiently generating 2D and 3D synthetic geological models tailored for ML workflows. RGM supports the creation of diverse model components, including medium property distributions (P-/S-wave velocities and density), seismic reflectivity images (i.e., synthetic migration sections), relative geological time, and discrete fault attributes such as probability, dip, strike, rake, and displacement. It also accommodates the creation of complex geological features such as salt bodies and unconformities. The model generation algorithm employs a multi-randomization strategy, yielding an effectively infinite-dimensional model space that encompasses a wide range of geological scenarios and associated seismic features. Furthermore, RGM incorporates a method to generate synthetic elastic migration images using analytical elastic reflection coefficients combined with frequency-dependent scaling. This functionality enables the creation of training datasets for ML models that leverage elastic seismic images. RGM is implemented in modern object-oriented Fortran, allowing users to flexibly control statistical parameters governing model variability. We demonstrate the capability, performance, and geological realism of the package through comprehensive 2D and 3D examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

DeFault: DEep‐Learning‐Based FAULT Delineation Using the IBDP Passive Seismic Data at the Decatur CO2 Storage Site

Abstract The carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) framework is an essential component in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with its success hinging on the comprehensive knowledge of subsurface geology and geomechanics. Passive seismic event relocation and fault detection offer vital insights into subsurface structures and the ability to monitor fluid migration pathways. Accurate identification and localization of seismic events, however, face significant challenges, including the necessity for high‐quality seismic data and advanced computational methods. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel deep learning method, , specifically designed for passive seismic source relocation and fault delineating for passive seismic monitoring projects. By leveraging data domain‐adaptation, allows us to train a neural network with labeled synthetic data and apply it directly to field data. Using , the passive seismic sources are automatically clustered based on their recording time and spatial locations, and subsequently, faults and fractures are delineated accordingly. We demonstrate the efficacy of on a field case study involving injection related microseismic data from Decatur, Illinois area. Our approach accurately and efficiently relocated passive seismic events, identified faults and could aid in potential damage induced by seismicity. Our results highlight the potential of as a valuable tool for passive seismic monitoring, emphasizing its role in ensuring CCUS project safety. This research bolsters the understanding of subsurface characterization in CCUS, illustrating machine learning’s capacity to refine these methods. Ultimately, our work has significant implications for CCUS technology deployment, an essential strategy in combating climate change. Plain Language Summary In our quest to tackle climate change, we use a strategy known as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. This strategy relies heavily on our ability to understand what's happening deep under the earth's surface. To make sure we store super critical safely, we need to accurately map out the geological structure, especially faults, but this is tough without high‐quality data and complex computer programs. We've developed a new tool called “DeFault,” which uses advanced machine learning to improve how we find and map these underground features. “DeFault” is smart enough to learn from numerically simulated data and then apply what it’s learned to real‐world situations. It groups together seismic activity—tiny tremors and shifts in the earth—based on when and where they happen, which helps us spot where there might be cracks or faults. We tested “DeFault” in Illinois, where CO 2 is injected underground, and it successfully pinpointed where these tremors occurred and mapped out the faults, helping to prevent accidents accurately in the future. Our study shows that “DeFault” will be a powerful ally in making CCUS safer and more effective, especially for the Illinois Basin Decatur Project. Key Points Faults and fractures introduced by carbon storage can be monitored by passive seismicity DeFault algorithm enables an automatic process for accurate and efficient passive seismic event locating and clustering

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling supercritical CO2 injection induced rupture of a minor fault embedded in a poroelastic layered reservoir-caprock system

CO2 injection for geologic carbon sequestration involves hydromechanical processes that lead to changes in fluid pressure and stresses that can activate existing faults. This paper presents a new method and workflow of modeling fault activation considering more complex three-dimensional geometry of natural faults using the TOUGH-FLAC multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator. In this method and workflow, FLAC3D mechanical interfaces and TOUGH3 finite volume elements are discretized using computer aided design and gridding software along with a tailored mesh translation routine. The method and workflow are demonstrated with a model of a curved minor fault embedded in a poro-elastic layered reservoir-caprock system. The model is used for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of fault responses to fault length, injection mass rate, injection schedule, well-fault distance, and well locations versus fault location. Four metrics (CO2 plume, shear state of fault, pressure and stress path at fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO2 migration, pressure change, and the reactivation of faults. The results reveal that CO2 can bypass around the tip of the minor impermeable fault, building up pressure and poro-elastic stress on both sides that tends to impede fault rupture. Our study shows the benefit of carefully designing the injection to achieve the targeted final storage volume, starting at a relatively low rate for considerable time, and then ramping up the injection rate to the full rate of injection. The initial low injection has two distinct benefits: (1) it allows for the formation of an extensive CO2 plume with a much higher mobility through a low viscosity that will result in a lower pressure for a given injection rate, and (2) it allows for gradual build-up of horizontal poro-elastic stress within the reservoir that will tend to impede activation of steeply dipping faults. The injection scenario starting at a low injection rate, denoted here as conservative injection, can significantly reduce the risk of fault activation as high fluid mobility and reservoir strengthening poro-elastic stress has been established long before reaching the peak injection rates. Moreover, simultaneous injection in two injection wells on both sides of fault can provide further reservoir strengthening through poro-elastic stress buildup acting on a fault under normal faulting stress regime. The findings presented in the paper can provide practical and effective guidance on long-term, safe, and reliable geological CO2 storage.

Cao, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗