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Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

The maximum likelihood estimation is a general estimation procedure. It is often compared to estimation procedures like the ordinary least squares regression or generalized method of moments, to name a few. We discuss some basics about the maximum likelihood estimation, its advantages and disadvantages, and provide an example application to a gamma distribution function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

The maximum likelihood estimation is a general estimation procedure. It is often compared to estimation procedures like the ordinary least squares regression or generalized method of moments, to name a few. We discuss some basics about the maximum likelihood estimation, its advantages and disadvantages, and provide an example application to a gamma distribution function.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Switching kinetics in ferroelectric zinc magnesium oxide thin films

The switching kinetics of RF-magnetron reactively sputtered ~200 nm thick Zn 1-x Mg x O (ZMO) ferroelectric thin films with x = 0.41 and x = 0.27 prepared on Pt/Ti/SiO 2 /Si substrates were studied at applied fields near the coercive fields, ranging from 3.4 to 5.1 MV cm -1 , and at temperatures ranging from room temperature to 100 °C. Polarization reversal in ZMO followss the Kolmogorov-Avrami-Ishibashi kinetics model for nucleation and growth at applied fields near the coercive field, and obeys an individual column switching (ICS) model at higher applied fields required to switch most of the spontaneous polarization. Switching in the high-applied field regime can be described using either the Gaussian or inverse gamma distribution functions depending on the mole fraction of magnesium in the film. The switching current transients of the high-Mg content ZMO film (x = 0.41) are always bi-modal, whereas the low Mg composition film (x = 0.27) is described by the Gaussian distribution initially following wake-up, and becomes bimodal with continued cycling. Rayleigh-like behavior of the dielectric constant revealed a simultaneous increase of the irreversible and decrease of the reversible contributions to the dielectric constant, which was ascribed to an increase in the density of mobile domain walls with cycling and resulted in faster switching.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Transverse single-spin asymmetries in $γ$ SIDIS as a direct probe of quark-gluon-quark longitudinal momentum structure

Transverse single-spin asymmetries in the semi-inclusive deep-inelastic production of isolated photons ($\gamma$SIDIS), $A_{UT}^{\gamma {\rm SIDIS}}$, provide an unprecedented opportunity to extract the quark-gluon-quark correlators $F_{FT}(x,x')$ and $G_{FT}(x,x')$ point-by-point in their full support $x,x'$. We utilize realistic models for these functions, based on input from the Sivers transverse momentum dependent parton distribution function and imposing constraints from the $d_2$ matrix element calculated in lattice QCD, in order to provide numerical estimates for $A_{UT}^{\gamma {\rm SIDIS}}$ at the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). We thoroughly explore the EIC phase space in order to isolate in which regions the asymmetry can be sizable, finding it can be as much as $10\%$ or larger for certain kinematics. Given that $F_{FT}(x,x')$ and $G_{FT}(x,x')$ are basically unknown, $A_{UT}^{\gamma {\rm SIDIS}}$ will be an important future measurement to learn about multi-parton correlations in the nucleon.

Electron-Ion Collider

Multilabel proportion prediction and out-of-distribution detection on gamma spectra of short-lived fission products

In the machine learning problem of multilabel classification, the objective is to determine for each test instance which classes the instance belongs to. In this work, we consider an extension of multilabel classification, called multilabel proportion prediction, in the context of radioisotope identification (RIID) using gamma spectra data. We aim to not only predict radioisotope proportions, but also identify out-of-distribution (OOD) spectra. We achieve this goal by viewing gamma spectra as discrete probability distributions, and based on this perspective, we develop a custom semi-supervised loss function that combines a traditional supervised loss with an unsupervised reconstruction error function. Our approach was motivated by its application to the analysis of short-lived fission products from spent nuclear fuel. In particular, we demonstrate that a neural network model trained with our loss function can successfully predict the relative proportions of 37 radioisotopes simultaneously. The model trained with synthetic data was then applied to measurements taken by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to conduct analysis typically done by subject-matter experts. Here, we also extend our approach to successfully identify when measurements are OOD, and thus should not be trusted, whether due to the presence of a novel source or novel proportions.

Anomaly detection

DASSH-F: Subchannel Based Thermal Analysis

The DASSH thermal analysis code is designed to rapidly allow a reactor design engineer to obtain flow rates requirements that satisfy peak temperature constraints in the domain. The advantage of using DASSH over a hand calculation is that it has a more rigorous treatment of the pin power distribution and coolant heat transfer within an assembly and between assemblies. The advantage of using DASSH over a conventional 3D subchannel code or a computational fluid dynamics code (CFD) is that it can obtain the desired solution in a matter of minutes in serial with minor computer memory needs. The DASSH methodology is virtually identical to SUPERENERGY-2 with additional functionalities taken from follow on work to SUPERENERGY-2 done at ANL in the 1980s. DASSH today is an integral component of the Argonne Fast Reactor analysis suite for reactor design work. DASSH obtains the power distribution from a coupled neutron-gamma heating calculation in GAMSOR (including DIF3D) at each time point of a companion fuel cycle analysis calculation with REBUS. The domain in DASSH assumes a hexagonal grid typical for fast reactors with much of the geometry information taken from the DIF3D model. DASSH assumes the assemblies that are loaded into each grid position are ducted to control the coolant flow. Considerable detail is given on the subchannel formulation of DASSH in this document. Much of the formulation and design of the code builds upon research done by previous authors with little new investigation. Thus the decisions made in developing the subchannel model used in DASSH have their origins over 50 years ago. Much of the heat transfer methodology in DASSH is built upon correlations for both the coolant mixing and heat transfer coefficients for pins and ducts. DASSH is thus not a rigorous treatment of a given problem, but a rapid assessment of the temperature field that has known limitations with respect to an experimental measurement or CFD calculation. The DASSH input and output are detailed along with usage of the software. The DASSH output provides tables of evaluated material properties and key coolant and pin temperature results. DASSH can create Python scripts that generate domain summary pictures. DASSH can also generate assembly temperature maps and VTK output files which allow the DASSH solution to be visualized. As the primary purpose of the DASSH software is to compute the coolant and fuel pin temperature distribution for a given model of a reactor, much of the output focus is giving the user quick summary tables needed to assess the performance of a given orifice flow specification. The present version of DASSH has a crude orifice search capability and an efficient orifice flow search capability. The flow search tries to meet user specified constraints for 1) peak 2-sigma clad midwall temperature, 2) peak coolant temperature, and 3) desired bulk outlet temperature. There are many development shortcomings in DASSH detailed in this document, but this version is functional for modern analysis needs. This document serves as the manual for the Fortran based DASSH software that was developed to replace the Python version of DASSH developed as part of the VTR program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Magnetic dipole γ-ray strength functions in the crossover from spherical to deformed neodymium isotopes

We calculate the magnetic dipole $\gamma$-ray strength functions in a chain of even-mass neodymium isotopes $^{144-152}$Nd in the framework of the configuration-interaction (CI) shell model. We infer the strength function by applying the maximum entropy method (MEM) to the exact imaginary-time response function calculated with the shell-model Monte Carlo (SMMC) method. The success of the MEM depends on the choice of a good strength function as a prior distribution. We investigate two choices for the prior strength function: the static path approximation (SPA) and the quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA). We find that the QRPA is a better approximation at low temperatures (i.e., near the ground state), while the SPA is a better choice at finite temperatures. We identify a low-energy enhancement (LEE) in the MEM deexcitation $M1$ strength functions of the even-mass neodymium isotopes and compare with recent experimental results for the total deexcitation $\gamma$-ray strength functions. The LEE is already seen in the SPA strength function but not in the QRPA strength function, indicating the importance of large-amplitude static fluctuations around the mean field in reproducing the LEE. Our method is currently the only one which can reproduce LEE in heavy open-shell nuclei where conventional CI shell model calculations are prohibited. With the onset of deformation as number of neutrons increases along the chain of neodymium isotopes, we observe that some of the LEE strength transfers to a low-energy excitation, which we interpret as a finite-temperature ``scissors'' mode. Here, we also observe a finite-temperature spin-flip mode.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

DASSH-F: Subchannel Based Thermal Analysis

The DASSH thermal analysis code is designed to rapidly allow a reactor design engineer to obtain flow rates requirements that satisfy peak temperature constraints in the domain. The advantage of using DASSH over a hand calculation is that it has a more rigorous treatment of the pin power distribution and coolant heat transfer within an assembly and between assemblies. The advantage of using DASSH over a conventional 3D subchannel code or a computational fluid dynamics code (CFD) is that it can obtain the desired solution in a matter of minutes in serial with minor computer memory needs. The DASSH methodology for pin lattice models is virtually identical to SUPERENERGY-2 with additional functionalities taken from follow on work to SUPERENERGY-2 done at ANL in the 1980s. DASSH today is an integral component of the Argonne Fast Reactor analysis suite for reactor design work. DASSH obtains the power distribution from a coupled neutron-gamma heating calculation in GAMSOR (including DIF3D) at each time point of a companion fuel cycle analysis calculation with REBUS. The domain in DASSH assumes a hexagonal grid typical for fast reactors with much of the geometry information taken from the DIF3D model. DASSH assumes the assemblies that are loaded into each grid position are ducted to control the coolant flow. The user can alternatively provide their own geometry and power profile instead of inheriting it from DIF3D. Considerable detail is given on the subchannel formulation of DASSH in this document. Much of the formulation and design of the code builds upon research done by previous authors with little new investigation. Thus the decisions made in developing the subchannel model used in DASSH have their origins over 50 years ago. Much of the heat transfer methodology in DASSH is built upon correlations for both the coolant mixing and heat transfer coefficients for pins and ducts. DASSH is thus not a rigorous treatment of a given problem, but a rapid assessment of the temperature field that has known limitations with respect to an experimental measurement or CFD calculation. The DASSH input and output are detailed along with usage of the software. The DASSH output provides tables of evaluated material properties and key coolant and pin temperature results. DASSH can create Python scripts that generate domain summary pictures. DASSH can also generate assembly temperature maps and VTK output files which allow the DASSH solution to be visualized. As the primary purpose of the DASSH software is to compute the coolant and fuel pin temperature distribution for a given model of a reactor, much of the output focus is giving the user quick summary tables needed to assess the performance of a given orifice flow specification. The present version of DASSH has a crude orifice search capability and a sufficient orifice flow search capability. The flow search tries to meet user specified constraints for 1) peak 2-sigma clad temperature, 2) peak coolant temperature, and 3) desired bulk outlet temperature. This document serves as the manual for the Fortran based DASSH software that was developed to replace the Python version of DASSH developed as part of the VTR program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

C 12 ( n , n 1 ′ γ ) partial γ -ray cross section measured using the GENESIS array

Improved neutron inelastic scattering cross sections have repeatedly been identified as a top priority nuclear data need, important for basic science and a range of applications in nuclear energy, stockpile stewardship, and proliferation detection. For the C 12 ( n , n ′ γ ) reaction in particular, recent measurements have unveiled some structural discrepancies, demonstrating incongruities among themselves and in relation to the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data evaluation. To help resolve these disagreements, a measurement was performed at the 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory using a broad-spectrum neutron beam and a 99.8% pure natural carbon target. The Gamma Energy Neutron Energy Spectrometer for Inelastic Scattering (GENESIS) was employed to measure energy-differential γ -ray emission spectra as a function of incident neutron energy in the energy range of 5.5 to 16.7 MeV. The C 12 partial γ -ray cross sections were extracted at 63 ∘ , 122 . 5 ∘ , and 150 ∘ with respect to the incoming neutron beam and integrated using angular distribution data available in the literature. The data show agreement with a recent literature measurement and evaluation from 11 to 15 MeV, but indicate a larger cross section for incident neutron energies between 5.5 and 8.5 MeV. The measured relative angular distributions are also reported and were found to agree with evaluation. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Gordon, J. M. (ORCID:0009000789886897)

$\gamma$-ray angular correlations, distributions and linear polarization in tracking arrays

With $\gamma $-ray tracking arrays, the angular correlation and, especially, the linear polarization of $\gamma $ rays can be measured with high precision. However, because of the complexity of these spectrometers, measuring angular distributions is more involved. The techniques and associated formalisms were developed and established in the 1950s. The experimental setups of that era were relatively simple when compared to the advanced $\gamma $-ray tracking arrays available today. This paper aims to review and refine these techniques, unify the nomenclatures and, specifically, adapt them for use with the newest tracking arrays. In addition, new methods for producing the required response functions for these arrays are introduced.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Expected Gamma-Ray Burst Detection Rates and Redshift Distributions for the BlackCAT CubeSat Mission

We report the results of an extensive set of simulations exploring the sensitivity of the BlackCAT CubeSat to long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). BlackCAT is a NASA APRA-funded CubeSat mission for the detection and real-time subarcminute localization of high-redshift (z ≳ 3.5) GRBs. Thanks to their luminous and long-lived afterglow emissions, GRBs are uniquely valuable probes of high-redshift star-forming galaxies and the intergalactic medium. In addition, each detected GRB with a known redshift serves to localize a region of high-redshift star formation in three dimensions, enabling deep follow-on searches for host galaxies and associated local and large-scale structures. We explore two distinct models for the GRB redshift distribution and luminosity function, both consistent with Swift observations. We find that, for either model, BlackCAT is expected to detect a mean of 42 bursts per year on orbit, with 6.7% to 10% of these at z > 3.5. BlackCAT bursts will be localized to an r 90 ≲ 55'' precision and reported to the community within seconds. Due to the mission orbit and pointing scheme, bursts will be located in the night sky and well placed for deep multiwavelength follow-up observations. BlackCAT is on schedule to achieve launch readiness in 2025.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Radiation Shielding

Safe and reliable use of scientific and engineering computer codes requires validation for the types of applications in which they will be used. An example in the nuclear reactor engineering and licensing field is radiation transport employed in shielding analyses. The validity of computer codes for shielding applications is demonstrated in this report for SCALE version 6.3.0. Representative benchmarks corresponding to shielding analyses are selected for the validation study. Typical measurement results analyzed from these benchmarks include neutron fluxes, detector count rates, detector energy response functions, neutron and gamma dose rates, neutron activation rates and activities, neutron leakage fluxes, and skyshine dose rates. Thousands of points of comparison between measurement and calculation are presented in this work. Other than rare outliers typically explained by either a lack of information or large uncertainties in the experiment conditions, material, or dimensions, the Monaco with Automated Variance Reduction using Importance Calculations (MAVRIC) radiation transport computer code with built-in variance reduction methods distributed with the SCALE computer code system agrees well with the measurement results. In selected benchmarks, MAVRIC is also compared to Monte Carlo N- Particle® (MCNP® ) 1 calculations. Both computer codes generally agree well within the estimated uncertainties. With the release of SCALE 6.3.0, Shift was integrated as an alternative transport solver in MAVRIC, denoted MAVRIC-Shift. Although the traditional MAVRIC using Monaco was used primarily in this validation study, many results have also been generated using MAVRIC-Shift. Agreement between MAVRIC-Monaco and MAVRIC-Shift is generally very good. The benchmarks presented in this report were obtained from reliable sources such as the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook, the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive & Database, and other shielding validation work found in the literature. Additional datapoints and benchmarks will be added to future versions of this report to expand the shielding validation suite.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY

GADRAS-DRF Validation for Safeguards and Custom Peak Fit Enhancements

In previous years, SGTech funded enhancements to the isotopics routine in the software called Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software-Detector Response Function (GADRAS-DRF), including the addition of peak fit customization capabilities. A project was also funded that focused on implementing a peak-based model fitting routine, allowing model fitting to be performed without dependence on export-controlled cross-sections. In FY25 significant improvements were made to the custom peak fitting interface, accompanied by several validation studies within GADRAS-DRF. These studies encompassed IsotopeID performance, distributed source analysis, isotopics validation, and activity estimation. Additionally, the peak-only model fitting option was validated using an HPGe measurement of a rotating drum with line sources.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation function

ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function of the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly $\alpha$) forest flux from high-z quasars probes the small-scale structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The thermal state of the IGM, determined by the physics of reionization, sets the small-scale power observed in the Ly $\alpha$ forest. To explore the sensitivity of the autocorrelation function to the IGM’s thermal state, we compute the autocorrelation function from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with an instantaneous reionization model and 135 post-processed thermal states. Using mock data sets of 20 quasars, we forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $\gamma$, which characterize the post-processed IGM thermal state, at $5.4 \le z \le 6$. While this model simplifies the IGM’s thermal state, it serves as a key first step in assessing future observational prospects. We also perform an inference test on mocks and re-weight out posterior distributions to guarantee that they exhibit statistically correct behaviour. At $z = 5.4$, we find that an idealized data set constrains $T_0$ to 59 per cent and $\gamma$ to 16 per cent at the 1$\sigma$ equivalent confidence level. To explore more realistic, non-instantaneous reionization scenarios, we analyse four models combining temperature and ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that mock data generated from a model with both temperature and UVB fluctuations can rule out a model with only temperature fluctuations at the $> 1\sigma$ level 73.9 per cent of the time.

Wolfson, Molly

The Psyche Gamma-Ray and Neutron Spectrometer

A Gamma-Ray and Neutron Spectrometer (GRNS) instrument has been developed as part of the science payload for NASA’s Discovery Program Psyche mission to the M-class asteroid (16) Psyche. The GRNS instrument is designed to measure the elemental composition of Psyche with the goal to understand the origin of this mysterious, potentially metal-rich planetary body. The GRNS will measure the near-surface abundances for the elements Ni, Fe, Si, K, S, Al, and Ca, as well as the spatial distribution of Psyche’s metal-to-silicate fraction (or metal fraction). These measurements address three of the five Psyche mission science objectives: determine if Psyche is a core; determine whether small metal bodies incorporate light elements into the metal phase; and determine whether Psyche was formed under reducing conditions. The Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) uses a cryocooled, high-purity Ge (HPGe) sensor to detect cosmic-ray generated gamma rays in the 60 to 9000-keV energy range. The HPGe sensor is surrounded by a borated plastic anticoincidence shield that provides three functions: active background rejection from charged particle interactions in the HPGe sensor; fast neutron measurements; and direct measurements of the incident galactic cosmic ray flux. The Neutron Spectrometer (NS) uses three 3 He gas proportional sensors, each with different material wraps to measure thermal (<0.4 eV), low-energy epithermal (0.4 eV to 1 keV), and high-energy epithermal (up to 100 keV) neutrons. This paper provides an overview of the Psyche GRNS, including: its science and measurement objectives; the design of the instrument hardware, software, and operation; pre-launch performance measurements and its initial performance in space; and an overview of its data products and expected operation for different Psyche mission phases.

Engineering - Instrumentation related to nuclear s

Investigation of irradiation damage and heat deposition: a comparative analysis for HEU-to-LEU conversion in HFIR

The planned conversion of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel requires detailed evaluation of experiment-relevant parameters to ensure continued performance for materials testing and isotope production. Here, this study presents the first comprehensive assessment of displacements per atom (dpa) and heat deposition rates in target materials within the HFIR flux trap with both HEU and candidate LEU core configurations. Seven analyses were conducted to evaluate key performance metrics, including fast neutron flux distribution, cross section response functions, cross section data, and local dpa and heat deposition rates using mesh- and cell-based tallies. Simulations employed Shift, Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP), and the HIFR Controller (HFIRCON) tool suite for high-fidelity transport and depletion modeling. The LEU designs—using U 3 Si 2 -Al dispersion fuel and operating at 95 MW—were compared to the current 85 MW HEU configuration. Results show that while the candidate LEU cores exhibit higher dpa rates due to a harder spectrum and extended cycle lengths, they also demonstrate reduced heat deposition rates in irradiation experiments, primarily due to increased gamma self-shielding from higher 238 U content in the core. These findings confirm that LEU conversion can maintain HFIR’s materials irradiation capabilities but may require redesigning existing experimental hardware.

HEU

Time-interval distributions in a digital gamma multi-channel analyzer at extreme input rates

Here, this study explores the relationship between experimentally observed inter-event time-interval distributions (TIDs) and measured dead times for pulses generated by a HPGe gamma detector and processed by a digital spectrometer. The system utilizes a fast and slow channel, pile-up rejector, trapezoid filtering, and flash analog-to-digital converter. The experimentally derived TIDs were compared with theory for validation. The results demonstrate that the theoretical model reliably describes measured TIDs up to 40% dead time. However, significant distortion effects become increasingly pronounced at higher input rates. It appears that the deviation between the measured and calculated time-interval distributions take the shape of higher-order convolutions of the TID, which represent the time difference between counts for more than two successive events. In this work, theoretical functions for the TID are expanded to reproduce measurements up to 90%. This refinement in the interpretation and treatment of the measured TIDs provides improved accuracy and precision in the prediction of the true event rate and measured dead time in the counter. Even though it reflects occasional count loss that is specific to the set-up, it is expected that a similar adjustment may be applicable to other detection systems as well.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND