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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Pristine survey – XX. GTC follow-up observations of extremely metal-poor stars identified from Pristine and LAMOST

Ultra-metal-poor stars (⁠[Fe/H] < –4.0⁠) are very rare, and finding them is a challenging task. Both narrow-band photometry and low-resolution spectroscopy have been useful tools for identifying candidates, and in this work, we combine both approaches. We cross-matched metallicity-sensitive photometry from the Pristine survey with the low-resolution spectroscopic Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) data base, and re-analyzed all LAMOST spectra with ⁠[Fe/H] Pristine < –2.5⁠. We find that ~1/3rd of this sample (selected without ⁠[Fe/H] Pristine quality cuts) also have spectroscopic ⁠[Fe/H] < –2.5⁠. From this sample, containing many low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) spectra, we selected 11 stars potentially having ⁠[Fe/H] < –4.0 or [Fe/H] < –3.0 with very high carbon abundances, and we performed higher S/N medium-resolution spectroscopic follow-up with the Optical System for Imaging and low Resolution Integrated Spectroscopy (OSIRIS) on the 10.4-m Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC). We confirm their extremely low metallicities, with a mean of [Fe/H] < –3.4⁠, and the most metal-poor star having [Fe/H] < –3.8⁠. Three of these are clearly carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars with +1.65 < [C/Fe] < +2.45⁠. The two most carbon-rich stars are either among the most metal-poor CEMP-s stars or the most carbon-rich CEMP-no stars known, the third is likely a CEMP-no star. We derived orbital properties for the OSIRIS sample and find that only one of our targets can be confidently associated with known substructures/accretion events, and that three out of four inner halo stars have prograde orbits. Large spectroscopic surveys may contain many hidden extremely and ultra-metal-poor stars, and adding additional information from e.g. photometry as in this work can uncover them more efficiently and confidently.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

GTC Follow-up Observations of Very Metal-poor Star Candidates from DESI

Abstract The observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will significantly increase the numbers of known extremely metal-poor stars by a factor of ∼10, improving the sample statistics to study the early chemical evolution of the Milky Way and the nature of the first stars. In this paper we report follow-up observations with high signal-to-noise ratio of nine metal-poor stars identified during the DESI commissioning with the Optical System for Imaging and Low-Resolution Integrated Spectroscopy (OSIRIS) instrument on the 10.4 m Gran Telescopio Canarias. The analysis of the data using a well-vetted methodology confirms the quality of the DESI spectra and the performance of the pipelines developed for the data reduction and analysis of DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The R -process Alliance: Fifth Data Release from the Search for R -process-enhanced Metal-poor Stars in the Galactic Halo with the GTC

Understanding the abundance pattern of metal-poor stars and the production of heavy elements through various nucleosynthesis processes offers crucial insights into the chemical evolution of the Milky Way, revealing primary sites and major sources of rapid neutron-capture process (r-process) material in the Universe. In this fifth data release from the R-Process Alliance (RPA), we present the detailed chemical abundances of 41 faint (down to V = 15.8) and extremely metal-poor (down to [Fe/H] = -3.3) halo stars selected from the RPA. We obtained high-resolution spectra for these objects with the HORuS spectrograph on the Gran Telescopio Canarias. We measure the abundances of light, α, Fe-peak, and neutron-capture elements. We report the discovery of five carbon-enhanced metal-poor, one limited-r, three r-I, and four r-II stars, and six Mg-poor stars. We also identify one star of a possible globular cluster origin at an extremely low metallicity at [Fe/H] = -3.0. This adds to the growing evidence of a lower-limit metallicity floor for globular cluster abundances. We use the abundances of Fe-peak elements and the α-elements to investigate the contributions from different nucleosynthesis channels in the progenitor supernovae. We find the distribution of [Mg/Eu] as a function of [Fe/H] to have different enrichment levels, indicating different possible pathways and sites of their production. We also reveal differences in the trends of the neutron-capture element abundances of Sr, Ba, and Eu of various r-I and r-II stars from the RPA data releases, which provide constraints on their nucleosynthesis sites and subsequent evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2 -products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the E LUC , S OCEAN and S LAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, E FOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr −1 ), E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr −1 ). Also, for 2024, G ATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 and S LAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr −1 , leaving a large negative B IM (−1.7 GtC yr −1 ), suggesting that the total sink or G ATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Partitioning of ocean and land uptake of CO2 as inferred by delta C-13 measurements from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network

Using delta C-13 measurements in atmospheric CO2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of delta C-13 measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and delta C-13 observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. Also, the discrimination against C-13 by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the simple biosphere (SiB) model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10(exp 15) gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.2 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15 deg N absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10 deg S and 10 deg N were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20 deg S, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in the northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35 deg N and 65 deg N were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30 deg N) appear to be a net source to the source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30 deg S-equator).

Ciais, Philippe↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, E FOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for a total anthropogenic CO 2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO 2 ). Also, for 2021, G ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 , with a B IM of −0.6 GtC yr −1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Pierre Friedlingstein↗
DOE OSTI2024

Linear gyrokinetic simulations of toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes in the Mega-Amp Spherical Tokamak

Linear gyrokinetic (GK) simulations using the Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code (GTC) have been performed to investigate Toroidicity-driven Alfvén Eigenmodes (TAEs) driven by the neutral beam injection (NBI) induced fast ions in the Mega-Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST) to identify the non-perturbative and kinetic effects of thermal plasma. A specific TAE in MAST discharge 26887, with an on-axis NBI power of approximately 1.5 MW and plasma current around 800 kA, exhibited frequency chirping, and the tangential soft x-ray camera array resolved the radial mode structure peaked near |q|=1.5. Various excitation methods were used in the GTC linear simulations, illustrating this code's capability to realistically represent the mechanisms and behaviors of fast ion-driven TAEs in spherical tokamaks. The radial structures from these GK simulations closely match measurements and calculations performed using the NOVA ideal MHD code, though with the frequencies approximately 10 kHz lower, likely due to various kinetic and non-perturbative effects. The simulations measured the damping rates due to continuum damping, radiative damping, and ion Landau damping, revealing that ion Landau damping has the most significant contribution to the total damping rate of the TAE. A comparison of growth rates of TAEs excited by fast ion Maxwellian and slowing-down distributions shows that the TAEs excited by a fast ion anisotropic pitch distribution (as part of the slowing-down distributions) are more unstable compared to those excited by a Maxwellian distribution with an equivalent fast ion beta. This shows that the use of fast ion anisotropy alters the number of fast ions to be in shear Alfvén resonance, and hence, it can greatly affect the stability of TAEs. These tests can be performed with the GTC but impossible with ideal MHD simulations, highlighting the necessity of kinetic simulations such as the GTC for a precise prediction of the TAE stability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

GeoThermalCloud for EGS – An Open-source, User-friendly, Scalable AI Workflow for Modeling Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) offer a vast potential to expand the use of geothermal energy. Heat is extracted from this engineered system by injecting relatively cold water into subsurface fractures, which are in contact with hot dry rock, and brought back to surface through production wells. Creating EGS requires improving the natural permeability of hot crystalline rocks. In this short conference paper, we present a reproducible workflow for modeling EGS. Our workflow called the GeoThermalCloud (GTC) for EGS, leverages recent advances in machine learning, deep learning, and high-performance computing. This GTC framework is currently being made open-source, user-friendly, and reproducible through python scripts as well as Google Colab/Jupyter Notebooks. This GTC for EGS modeling scripts are made available at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS and will constantly be updated to cater for geothermal community. Current GTC framework provides scripts to train deep learning (DL) models for techno-economics and data worth analysis. The Geothermal Design Tool (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast and simplified multi-physics solver, is used to develop a database for training DL models. This short paper provides details on the scripts to curate, process, and train DL models. The scripts can easily be modified to train on databases generated by other popular open-source simulators such as PFLOTRAN, STOMP, TOUGH, and GEOSX or commercial software such as ResFrac and COMSOL.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico

Geothermal energy is considered an essential renewable resource to generate flexible electricity. Geothermal resource assessments conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey showed that the southwestern basins in the U.S. have a significant geothermal potential for meeting domestic electricity demand. Within these southwestern basins, play fairway analysis (PFA), funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office, identified that the Tularosa Basin in New Mexico has significant geothermal potential. This short communication paper presents a machine learning (ML) methodology for curating and analyzing the PFA data from the DOE’s geothermal data repository. The proposed approach to identify potential geothermal sites in the Tularosa Basin is based on an unsupervised ML method called non-negative matrix factorization with custom k-means clustering. This methodology is available in our open-source ML framework, GeoThermalCloud (GTC). Using this GTC framework, we discover prospective geothermal locations and find key parameters defining these prospects. Our ML analysis found that these prospects are consistent with the existing Tularosa Basin’s PFA studies. This instills confidence in our GTC framework to accelerate geothermal exploration and resource development, which is generally time-consuming.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning for Modeling Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) offer a vast potential to expand the use of geothermal energy. Heat is extracted from this engineered system by injecting cold water into a subsurface fractures, which are in contact with the hot dry rock, and pulled through the production wells. Creating EGS requires improving the natural permeability of hot crystalline rocks. To develop economically viable EGS reservoirs, significant technical barriers (e.g., better stimulation technologies without adequate water and/or permeability) and non-technical barriers (e.g., land access and permitting) must be overcome. In this short conference paper, we present a workflow to address a part of this challenge – “How to develop economically viable EGS using existing technologies?”. Our workflow called the GeoThermalCloud (GTC) for EGS, leverages recent advances in machine learning, deep learning, and cloud computing. This GTC framework is open-source and available at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl. The GTC framework provides trained deep learning (DL) models to estimate the net present value of a given EGS design scenario. The Geothermal Design Tool (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast and simplified multi-physics solver, is used to develop a database for training DL models. The database consists of EGS design parameters (inputs to DL model) and their net present value (output of DL model) in uncertain geologic systems. The EGS design parameters for constructing this training database are based on Utah FORGE but include the options of more wells and deeper depths. The DL models are trained by ingesting the EGS design parameters and estimating the corresponding net present value. Such an emulation allows us to screen various EGS designs quickly and identify good development strategies by coupling them with optimization techniques. Our preliminary results show promise in DL emulation of net present value. However, a lot more work is needed to improve the predictive capability of DL models (i.e., extensive hyperparameter tuning is necessary). This will be the primary focus of our future work.

artificial neural networks, geothermal↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing understanding and predictive capability for fast-ion driven instabilities and associated anomalous transport in NSTX-U

This project advanced predictive capability for the spherical tokamak (ST) by (a) experimental validation of physics models in GTC for simulating fast-ion driven instabilities and their fast-ion and energy transport in the ST, and (b) verification of GTC with linear theory and validation using experimental measurements in the high frequency regime in the ST.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Carbon Flux Response to Atmospheric Aridity and Water Storage Deficit During the 2015–2016 El Niño Compromised Carbon Balance Recovery in Tropical South America

During the 2015–2016 El Niño, the Amazon basin released almost one gigaton of carbon (GtC) into the atmosphere due to extreme temperatures and drought. The link between the drought impact and recovery of the total carbon pools and its biogeochemical drivers is still unknown. With satellite-constrained net carbon exchange and its component fluxes including gross primary production and fire emissions, we show that the total carbon loss caused by the 2015–2016 El Niño had not recovered by the end of 2018. Forest ecosystems over the Northeastern (NE) Amazon suffered a cumulative total carbon loss of ~0.6 GtC through December 2018, driven primarily by a suppression of photosynthesis whereas southeastern savannah carbon loss was driven in part by fire. We attribute the slow recovery to the unexpected large carbon loss caused by the severe atmospheric aridity coupled with a water storage deficit during drought. We show the attenuation of carbon uptake is three times higher than expected from the pre-drought sensitivity to atmospheric aridity and ground water supply. Our study fills an important knowledge gap in our understanding of the unexpectedly enhanced response of carbon fluxes to atmospheric aridity and water storage deficit and its impact on regional post-drought recovery as a function of the vegetation types and climate perturbations. Our results suggest that the disproportionate impact of water supply and demand could compromise resiliency of the Amazonian carbon balance to future increases in extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stellar populations with MEGARA: The inner regions of NGC 7025

This paper aims to determine the capabilities of the MEGARA spectrograph at the Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC), which is an optical integral-field unit, for studying stellar populations. We also aim to exploit its combination of high spectral (R ~ 6000, 12 000 and 20 000) and spatial (0.62") resolution within its 12".5 × 11"​​.3 field of view. We do this by analysing the commissioning data of the nearby S0a galaxy NGC 7025. We establish a systematic method through which we can determine the properties of the stellar populations in the observations made with MEGARA, more specifically, within the MEGADES legacy project. For this paper in particular, we determine the properties of the stellar populations of NGC 7025. We used MEGARA observations of galaxy NGC 7025 that were taken during the commissioning phase of the instrument. We applied different approaches to estimate the properties of the stellar populations with the highest possible certainty. In addition to the specific study of NGC 7025 and in the context of the MEGADES survey, we have carried out a number of tests to determine the expected errors (including potential biases) in these star formation history (SFH) derivations as a function of these parameters, namely spectral setup, signal-to-noise ratio, σ, and the SFH itself. All the studies we conduct (both full spectral fitting and absorption line indices) of the stellar populations of NGC 7025 indicate that the stars that form its bulge have supersolar metallicity and considerably old ages (~10 Gyr) in general. Using three different combinations of MEGARA spectral setups, we determined that the bulge of NGC 7025 has smild negative mass-weighted age gradient. For the more detailed SFH, our results indicate that in addition to a rather constant star formation at early epochs, a peak in the formation history of the stars in the bulge is also found 3.5–4.5 Gyr ago. This partly explains the mass-weighted age gradients we measured. The scenario presented in NGC 7025 is that of an isolated galaxy under secular evolution that about 3.5–4.5 Gyr ago likely experienced a minor merger (mass ratio 1/10) that induced an increase in star formation and also perturbed the morphology of its outer disc. In addition to these specific results for NGC 7025, we report different lessons learned for the ongoing exploitation of the MEGADES survey with the GTC, such as the need to obtain combined observations in the LR-B + LR-V setups and a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 20 per Å.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗