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At least 19 records

Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants, targets were less well-defined, but while all three scenarios were able to make significant reductions in ROG, NOx and PM2.5 both statewide and in the two regional air basins, they may nonetheless fall short of what will be required by future federal standards. Specifically, in Scenario 1, regional NOx emissions are approximately three times the estimated targets for both 2023 and 2032, and in Scenarios 2 and 3, NOx emissions are approximately twice the estimated targets. Further work is required in this area, including detailed regional air quality modeling, in order to determine likely pathways for attaining these stringent targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Industry Partnerships & Their Role In Reducing Natural Gas Supply Chain Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Phase 2

This analysis is the product of collaboration between Our Nation’s Energy Future (ONE Future) and the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). This analysis is an update to Phase 1 of the collaboration between ONE Future and NETL. Phase 1 had three objectives: 1. Calculate a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profile representative of ONE Future’s supply chain, including methane (CH 4 ) emission rates. 2. Compare ONE Future’s emission profile to the emission profile for the U.S. natural gas supply chain. 3. Evaluate specific emission reduction opportunities. Phase 2 has two key enhancements over Phase 1: 1. The reporting year of the data is updated from 2016 to 2017. 2. The emission profiles and the specific emission reduction opportunities are regionalized for the ONE Future supply chain. The ONE Future supply chain is based on data provided by ONE Future members for all their U.S. onshore assets. ONE Future’s data are mostly representative of their participation in the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and is supplemented by ONE Future facilities that are not required to report to GHGRP. The U.S. scenario is based on NETL’s life cycle analysis (LCA) of natural gas extraction and power generation, which also uses data from the GHGRP (but does not include non-GHGRP facilities). In addition to the data from these sources, NETL accounted for uncertainty due to data variability, data limitations, and variability in liquids unloading frequency and event duration. This report is a re-issue of the 2020 study (published on July 28, 2020). It revises the device count in the mitigation strategy “pipeline pump-down before maintenance” in the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Analysis section of the report (Section 7). Please see the addendum for more details on this revision and resultant changes. This revision does not change most of our conclusions and recommendations. It only changes the total methane reduced from all the mitigation opportunities (low cost and high cost) from 6.5 Bcf CH 4 /yr to 4.8 Bcf CH 4 /yr.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Land management change greatly impacts biofuels’ greenhouse gas emissions

Harvesting corn stover for biofuel production may decrease soil organic carbon (SOC) and increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adding additional organic matter into soil or reducing tillage intensity, however, could potentially offset this SOC loss. Here, by using SOC and life cycle analysis (LCA) models, we evaluated the impacts of land management change (LMC), i.e., stover removal, organic matter addition, and tillage on spatially explicit SOC level and biofuels’ overall life-cycle GHG emissions in U.S. corn-soybean production systems. Results indicate that under conventional tillage (CT), 30% stover removal (dry weight) may reduce SOC by 0.04 t C ha-1yr-1 over a 30-year simulation period. Growing a cover crop during the fallow season or applying manure, on the other hand, could add to SOC and further reduce biofuels’ life-cycle GHG emissions. With 30% stover removal in a CT system, cover crop and manure application can increase SOC at the national level by about 0.06 and 0.02 t C ha-1yr-1, respectively, compared to cases without such measures. With contributions from this SOC increase, the life-cycle GHG emissions for stover ethanol are more than 80% lower than those of gasoline, exceeding the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard mandate of 60% emissions reduction for cellulosic biofuels. Reducing tillage intensity while removing stover could also limit SOC loss or lead to SOC gain, which would lower stover ethanol life-cycle GHG emissions to near or under the mandated 60% reduction. Without these organic matter inputs or reduced tillage intensity, however, the emissions will not meet this mandate. More efforts are still required to further identify key practical LMCs, improve SOC modeling, and accounting for LMCs in biofuel LCAs that incorporate stover removal.

Qin, Zhangcai↗

Industry Partnerships and Their Role in Reducing Natural Gas Supply Chain Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This analysis is the product of collaboration between Our Nation’s Energy Future (ONE Future) and the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). This analysis has three objectives: 1. Calculate a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profile representative of ONE Future’s supply chain, including methane (CH4) emission rates. 2. Compare ONE Future’s emission profile to the emission profile for the average U.S. natural gas supply chain. 3. Evaluate specific emission reduction opportunities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Industry Partnerships & Their Role In Reducing Natural Gas Supply Chain Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Phase 2

Our Nation’s Energy Future (ONE Future) is a natural gas industry partnership dedicated to improving the efficiency of the natural gas supply chain. The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is a United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) laboratory with world-class capabilities in energy research and analysis. This analysis is a collaboration between ONE Future and NETL, with the goal of characterizing methane (CH 4 ) and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ONE Future’s operations.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn kernel fiber ethanol

Corn kernel fiber ethanol that can be produced concurrently with corn starch ethanol has recently been approved as cellulosic biofuel in the USA, suggesting that fiber ethanol could be eligible for a higher credit price than conventional starch ethanol due to its anticipated lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A life-cycle analysis was conducted to quantify ethanol's GHG emissions. Here we show that fiber ethanol's life-cycle GHG emissions (36-39 g CO(2)e MJ(-1)) are close to meeting the US cellulosic biofuel's legislative mandate of 60% GHG emissions reduction relative to gasoline (similar to 94 g CO(2)e MJ(-1)), with slightly lower emissions under the nth plant mature fiber technology than under the state of technology (SOT). The co-product, distiller's grain with solubles (DGS), can notably affect fiber ethanol's GHG emissions, and this impact may need to be further examined when evidence of DGS market impacts becomes available. (c) 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

biofuel↗

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025–2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300–350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25–$1.00/mi depending on timeframe and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60–90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Cradle-to-grave↗

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗