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Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis: Thermal Quality Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis (GPFA-AB)

This collection of files are part of a larger dataset uploaded in support of Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB). Phase 1 of the GPFA-AB project identified potential Geothermal Play Fairways within the Appalachian basin of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New York. This was accomplished through analysis of 4 key criteria: thermal quality, natural reservoir productivity, risk of seismicity, and heat utilization. Each of these analyses represent a distinct project task, with the fifth task encompassing combination of the 4 risks factors. Supporting data for all five tasks has been uploaded into the Geothermal Data Repository node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). This submission comprises the data for Thermal Quality Analysis (project task 1) and includes all of the necessary shapefiles, rasters, datasets, code, and references to code repositories that were used to create the thermal resource and risk factor maps as part of the GPFA-AB project. The identified Geothermal Play Fairways are also provided with the larger dataset. Figures (.png) are provided as examples of the shapefiles and rasters. The regional standardized 1 square km grid used in the project is also provided as points (cell centers), polygons, and as a raster. Two ArcGIS toolboxes are available: 1) RegionalGridModels.tbx for creating resource and risk factor maps on the standardized grid, and 2) ThermalRiskFactorModels.tbx for use in making the thermal resource maps and cross sections. These toolboxes contain item description documentation for each model within the toolbox, and for the toolbox itself. This submission also contains three R scripts: 1) AddNewSeisFields.R to add seismic risk data to attribute tables of seismic risk, 2) StratifiedKrigingInterpolation.R for the interpolations used in the thermal resource analysis, and 3) LeaveOneOutCrossValidation.R for the cross validations used in the thermal interpolations. Some file descriptions make reference to various 'memos'. These are contained within the final report submitted October 16, 2015. Each zipped file in the submission contains an 'about' document describing the full Thermal Quality Analysis content available, along with key sources, authors, citation, use guidelines, and assumptions, with the specific file(s) contained within the .zip file highlighted. UPDATE: Newer version of the Thermal Quality Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/879 (Also linked below) Newer version of the Combined Risk Factor Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/880 (Also linked below)

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GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload

This submission contains information used to compute the risk factors for the GPFA-AB project (DE-EE0006726). The risk factors are natural reservoir quality, thermal resource quality, potential for induced seismicity, and utilization. The methods used to combine the risk factors included taking the product, sum, and minimum of the four risk factors. The files are divided into images, rasters, shapefiles, and supporting information. The image files show what the raster and shapefiles should look like. The raster files contain the input risk factors, calculation of the scaled risk factors, and calculation of the combined risk factors. The shapefiles include definition of the fairways, definition of the US Census Places, the center of the raster cells, and locations of industries. Supporting information contains details of the calculations or processing used in generating the files. An image of the raster will have the same name except *.png as the file ending instead of *.tif. Images with “fairways” or “industries” added to the name are composed of a raster with the relevant shapefile added. The file About_GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload.pdf contains information the citation, special use considerations, authorship, etc. More details on each file are given in the spreadsheet “list_of_contents.csv” in the folder “SupportingInfo”. Code used to calculate values is available at https://github.com/calvinwhealton/geothermal_pfa under the folder “combining_metrics”.

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Risk Factor Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB)

This submission contains information used to compute the risk factors for the GPFA-AB project. The risk factors are natural reservoir quality, thermal resource quality, potential for induced seismicity, and utilization. The methods used to combine the risk factors included taking the product, sum, and minimum of the four risk factors. The files are divided into images, rasters, shapefiles, and supporting information. The image files show what the raster and shapefiles should look like. The raster files contain the input risk factors, calculation of the scaled risk factors, and calculation of the combined risk factors. The shapefiles include definition of the fairways, definition of the US Census Places, the center of the raster cells, and locations of industries. Supporting information contains details of the calculations or processing used in generating the files. An image of the raster will have the same name except *.png as the file ending instead of *.tif. Images with 'fairways' or 'industries' added to the name are composed of a raster with the relevant shapefile added. The file About_GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload.pdf contains information the citation, special use considerations, authorship, etc. ***See 'GPFA-AB.zip' at bottom for compressed and organized version of the files associated with this submission*** **More details (including location) on each file are given in the spreadsheet 'list_of_contents.csv' in the folder 'SupportingInfo'** Code used to calculate values is available: https://github.com/calvinwhealton/geothermal_pfa under the folder 'combining_metrics' - *See link below*

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GPFA-AB_Phase1UtilizationTask4DataUpload

This submission of Utilization Analysis data to the Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS) is in support of Phase 1 Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (project DE-EE0006726). The submission includes data pertinent to the methods and results of an analysis of the Surface Levelized Cost of Heat (SLCOH) for US Census Bureau ‘Places’ within the study area. This was calculated using a modification of a program called GEOPHIRES, available at http://koenraadbeckers.net/geophires/index.php. The MATLAB modules used in conjunction with GEOPHIRES, the MATLAB data input file, the GEOPHIRES output data file, and an explanation of the software components have been provided. Results of the SLCOH analysis appear on 4 .png image files as mapped ‘risk’ of heat utilization. For each of the 4 image (.png) files, there is an accompanying georeferenced TIF (.tif) file by the same name. In addition to calculating SLCOH, this Task 4 also identified many sites that may be prospects for use of a geothermal district heating system, based on their size and industry, rather than on the SLCOH. An industry sorted listing of the sites (.xlsx) and a map of these sites plotted as a layer onto different iterations of maps combining the three geological risk factors (Thermal Quality, Natural Reservoir Quality, and Risk of Seismicity) has been provided. In addition to the 6 image (.png) files of the maps in this series, a shape (.shp) file and 7 associated files are included as well. Finally, supporting files (.pdf) describing the utilization analysis methodology and summarizing the anticipated permitting for a deep district heating system are supplied.

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GPFA-AB_Phase1ReservoirTask2DataUpload

This submission to the Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS) in support of Phase 1 Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin. The files included in this zip file contain all data pertinent to the methods and results of this task’s output, which is a cohesive multi-state map of all known potential geothermal reservoirs in our region, ranked by their potential favorability. Favorability is quantified using a new metric, Reservoir Productivity Index, as explained in the Reservoirs Methodology Memo (included in zip file). Shapefile and images of the Reservoir Productivity and Reservoir Uncertainty are included as well.

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Utilization Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB)

This submission of Utilization Analysis data to the Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS) is in support of Phase 1 Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin. The submission includes data pertinent to the methods and results of an analysis of the Surface Levelized Cost of Heat (SLCOH) for US Census Bureau Places within the study area. This was calculated using a modification of a program called GEOPHIRES, available at http://koenraadbeckers.net/geophires/index.php. The MATLAB modules used in conjunction with GEOPHIRES, the MATLAB data input file, the GEOPHIRES output data file, and an explanation of the software components have been provided. Results of the SLCOH analysis appear on 4 .png image files as mapped risk of heat utilization. For each of the 4 image (.png) files, there is an accompanying georeferenced TIF (.tif) file by the same name. In addition to calculating SLCOH, this Task 4 also identified many sites that may be prospects for use of a geothermal district heating system, based on their size and industry, rather than on the SLCOH. An industry sorted listing of the sites (.xlsx) and a map of these sites plotted as a layer onto different iterations of maps combining the three geological risk factors (Thermal Quality, Natural Reservoir Quality, and Risk of Seismicity) has been provided. In addition to the 6 image (.png) files of the maps in this series, a shape (.shp) file and 7 associated files are included as well. Finally, supporting files (.pdf) describing the utilization analysis methodology and summarizing the anticipated permitting for a deep district heating system are supplied. UPDATE: Newer version of the Utilization Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/878

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Appalachian Basin Temperature-Depth Maps and Structured Data in support of Feasibility Study of Direct District Heating for the Cornell Campus Utilizing Deep Geothermal Energy

This dataset contains shapefiles and rasters that summarize the results of a stochastic analysis of temperatures at depth in the Appalachian Basin states of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. This analysis provides an update to the temperature-at-depth maps provided in the Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB) Thermal Quality Analysis (GDR repository 879: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/879). This dataset improves upon the GPFA-AB dataset by considering several additional uncertainties in the temperature-at-depth calculations, including geologic properties and thermal properties. A Monte Carlo analysis of these uncertain properties and the GPFA-AB estimated surface heat flow was used to predict temperatures at depth using a 1-D heat conduction model. In this data submission, temperatures are provided for depths from 1-5 km in 0.5 km increments. The mean, standard deviation, and selected quantiles of temperatures at these depths are provided as shapefiles with attribute tables that contain the data. Rasters are provided for the mean and standard deviation data. Figures and maps that summarize the data are also provided. For the pixel corresponding to Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, a .csv file containing the 10,000 temperature-depth profiles estimated from the Monte Carlo analysis is provided. These data are summarized in a figure containing violin plots that illustrate the probability of obtaining certain temperatures at depths below Cornell.

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Geologic Reservoir Content Model from Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin

This dataset contains the known hydrocarbon reservoirs within the study area of the Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB) as part of Phase 1, Natural Reservoirs Quality Analysis. The final values for Reservoir Productivity Index (RPI) and uncertainty (in terms of coefficient of variation, CV) are included. RPI is in units of liters per MegaPascal-second (L/MPa-s), quantified using permeability, thickness of formation, and depth. A higher RPI is more optimal. Coefficient of Variation (CV) is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean RPI for each reservoir. A lower CV is more optimal. Details on these metrics can be found in the Reservoirs_Methodology_Memo.pdf uploaded in the associated "Natural Reservoir Analysis" dataset linked below.

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Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis: Revised 2016 Combined Risk Factor Analysis

This submission contains information used to compute the combined risk factors for deep geothermal energy opportunities in the Appalachian Basin, in the context of a the Play Fairway Analysis project. The risk factors are sedimentary rock reservoir quality, thermal resource quality, potential for induced seismicity, and utilization for direct-use heating of neighborhoods. The methods used to combine the risk factors included taking the average, the geometric mean, and the minimum of the four risk factors. Combined risk maps are provided for three different sedimentary rock reservoir metrics. Combined risk maps are also provided for the three geologic risk factors alone (thermal, reservoir, and seismic), and for the three risk factors that exclude reservoir quality (utilization, seismicity, and thermal qualities). The 2015 data submission should be visited to obtain associated shapefiles, which include: 1) definition of the High and Medium priority play fairways (Inner_Fairway, and Outer_Fairway), 2) definition of the US Census Places (usCensusPlaces), 3) places (cities) of interest in the region (Places_of_Interest) identified as geothermal play fairways, 4) the point centers of the raster cells (Raster_Center_Locations), and 5) locations of industries and special-use communities (e.g., colleges and military bases) identified as low temperature heat users (Industries). The 2015 submission also includes: 1) a methodology memo that explains how the risk factors were combined (GPFA-AB_combining_risk_factors.pdf), 2) the earthquake-based seismic risk map, and 3) supporting information with details of the calculations or processing used in generating these data files. More details on each file are given in the spreadsheet "list_of_contents.xlsx" in the folder "Supporting_Information". Code used to calculate values is available at https://github.com/calvinwhealton/geothermal_pfa under the folder "combining_metrics". Note that the 2016 code is currently under the branch named "combining_metrics_2016" in the folder called "combining_metrics". This branch may be merged with the master branch in the future. Many files contained within this submission update and replace the indicated files contained in: Cornell University. (2015). Risk Factor Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB) [data set]. Retrieved from https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/622. doi:10.15121/1261942

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Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis: Natural Sedimentary Reservoirs Data 2016 Revision

Tier 3 data for Appalachian Basin sectors of New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia used in a Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of opportunities for low-temperature direct-use applications of heat. It accompanies data and materials submitted as Geothermal Data Repository Submission "Natural Reservoir Analysis 2016 GPFA-AB" (linked below). Reservoir information are derived from oil and gas exploration and production data sets, or derived from those data based on further analysis. Data reported here encompass locations (horizontal and depth), geologic formation names, lithology, reservoir volume, porosity and permeability, and derived approximations of the quality of the reservoir. These differ from the linked 2015 data submission in that this file presents data for New York that are comparable to those in the other two states. In contrast, the 2015 data available measured differing attributes across the state boundaries.

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Feasibility of Deep Direct-Use Geothermal on the West Virginia University Campus-Morgantown, WV

In 2010, research completed by the Southern Methodist University (SMU) Geothermal Laboratory estimated temperatures at reasonable drilling depths in the state of West Virginia (WV) were in the temperature range desirable for district heating. This higher temperature region extends from north-central WV (Monongalia County) to southeastern WV (Greenbrier County). The Morgantown campus of West Virginia University (WVU) is located within the north-central region, and as part of the 2016 study on Low-temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB), Morgantown is identified as one of the priority locations for further analysis of the potential for deep direct-use (DDU) of geothermal energy. In this project, the feasibility of developing a Geothermal District Heating and Cooling (GDHC) system for the WVU campus in Morgantown, WV, to replace the current coal-fired steam heating and cooling system, is evaluated.

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Natural Reservoir Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin

The files included in this submission contain all data pertinent to the methods and results of this task's output, which is a cohesive multi-state map of all known potential geothermal reservoirs in our region, ranked by their potential favorability. Favorability is quantified using a new metric, Reservoir Productivity Index, as explained in the Reservoirs Methodology Memo (included in zip file). Shapefile and images of the Reservoir Productivity and Reservoir Uncertainty are included as well (hover over file display names to see actual file names in bottom-left corner of screen).

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Improvements in 2016 to Natural Reservoir Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin

*These files add to and replace same-named files found within Submission 559 (hover over file display names to see actual file names in bottom-left corner of screen)* The files included in this submission contain all data pertinent to the methods and results of a cohesive multi-state analysis of all known potential geothermal reservoirs in sedimentary rocks in the Appalachian Basin region, ranked by their potential favorability. Favorability is quantified using three metrics: Reservoir Productivity Index for water; Reservoir Productivity Index; Reservoir Flow Capacity. The metrics are explained in the Reservoirs Methodology Memo (included in zip file). The product represents a minimum spatial extent of potential sedimentary rock geothermal reservoirs. Only natural porosity and permeability were analyzed. Shapefile and images of the spatial distributions of these reservoir quality metrics and of the uncertainty on these metrics are included as well. UPDATE: Accompanying geologic reservoirs data may be found at: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/881 (linked below).

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Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis Analyses and Results

*This submission updates a 2015 submission for the utilization analysis (https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/623)* The files document the analysis of utilization potential in support of Phase 1 Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin. This 2016 submission includes data pertinent to the methods and results of an analysis of the Surface Levelized Cost of Heat (SLCOH) for US Census Bureau 'Places' within the study area. The SLCOHis was calculated using a modification of a program called GEOPHIRES, available at http://koenraadbeckers.net/geophires/index.php. In addition to calculating SLCOH, this task also identified many industrial sites that may be prospects for use of a geothermal district heating system, based on their size and industry, rather than on the SLCOH. An industry sorted listing and maps of the sites have been plotted as a layer onto different iterations of maps combining the three geologic risk factors (Thermal Quality, Natural Reservoir Quality, and Risk of Seismicity). In addition, a shapefile of the industrial sites is also included with 7 associated files. Supporting files are also supplied.

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Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis Thermal Risk Factor and Quality Analyses

*This submission revises the analysis and products for Thermal Quality Analysis for the northern half of the Appalachian Basin (https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/638)* This submission is one of five major parts of a Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis. Phase 1 of the project identified potential Geothermal Play Fairways within the Appalachian basin of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New York. This submission includes a subset of the necessary shapefiles, rasters, datasets, code, and references to code repositories that were used to create the thermal resource and risk factor maps as part of the project. This subset is those contents that were improved upon during calendar year 2016. Figures are provided as examples of some shapefiles and rasters. See also: Final Report: Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/899). The 2015 data submission should be visited to obtain: 1) the regional standardized 1 square km grid used in the project as points (cell centers), polygons, and as a raster, 2) the raw well data for the state well temperature databases, 3) the COSUNA section shapefile and formation thermal conductivities by state as *.xlsx files, 4) the sediment thickness map and 30 m Digital Elevation Model for the Appalachian Basin as GeoTIFF raster files, 5) the BHT correction sections shapefile and drilling fluid databases as *.csv files, 6) the unbuffered interpolation regions as shapefiles, 7) several 50 km buffered interpolation regions as shapefiles, 8) several gridded interpolation regions as raster files, 9) an R script for organizing the thermal data and running the local spatial outlier analysis, 10) shapefiles and rasters for the prediction, uncertainty, and cross validation of the temperature at 1.5 km, 2.5 km, and 3.5 km depth, 11) shapefiles and rasters for the prediction, uncertainty, and cross validation depth to 100 degrees C, 12) an ArcGIS toolbox for thermal risk factor models, 13) an ArcGIS model for extracting results specific to each county of interest, 14) thermal resource cross section plots, 15) the geothermal Play Fairways.

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Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis For The Appalachian Basin: Phase 1 Revised Report November 18, 2016

Geothermal energy is an attractive sustainable energy source. Yet project developers need confirmation of the resource base to warrant their time and financial resources. The Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of the Appalachian Basin evaluated risk metrics that communicate the favorability of potential low-temperature geothermal energy resources in reservoirs more than 1000 m below the surface. This analysis is focused on the direct use of the heat, rather than on electricity production. Four risk factors of concern for direct-use geothermal plays in the Appalachian Basin portions of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia are examined individually, and then in combination: 1) thermal resource quality, 2) natural reservoir quality, 3) induced seismicity, and 4) utilization opportunities. Uncertainty in the risk estimation is quantified. Based on these metrics, geothermal plays in the Appalachian Basin were identified as potentially viable for a variety of direct-use-heat applications. The methodologies developed in this project may be applied in other sedimentary basins as a foundation for low temperature (50-150 °C), direct use geothermal resource, risk, and uncertainty assessment. Three methods with which to combine the four risk factors were used. Among these, the averaging of the individual risk factors indicates the most favorable counties within the study area are the West Virginia counties of Monongalia, Harrison, Lewis (dubbed the Morgantown–Clarksburg play fairway), Putnam, and Kanawha (Charleston play fairway), the New York counties of Chemung and Steuben plus adjacent Bradford county in Pennsylvania (Corning–Ithaca play fairway), and the Pennsylvania counties of Mercer, Crawford, Erie, and Warren, and adjacent Chautauqua county in New York (together, the Meadville–Jamestown play fairway). These higher priority regions are surrounded by broader medium priority zones. Also worthy of additional exploration is a broad region near Pittsburgh Pennsylvania, for which the available geological data are insufficient to fully analyze the geological risks but yet the population is high. First, to assess the spatial variation in the depth to which one would need to drill to obtain geothermal temperatures that are useful to a future project, the project used bottom-hole temperature data from Appalachian Basin oil and gas exploration. These bottom hole temperature data are abundant but of low quality. Second, the project examined the potential for sufficient water flow rates through rocks to harvest heat from a geothermal well field, considering only natural reservoirs. This analysis provides a very incomplete picture of spatial variability of natural reservoirs because the oil and gas reservoir data lack key properties and are spatially biased toward those locations with profitable amounts of hydrocarbons in the rock pore spaces. Third, in light of the fact that earthquake activity has been induced in several states by subsurface work related to the oil and gas industry, this project examined the potential for similar activity in the Appalachian Basin. Acknowledging that data for such a task are insufficient, we utilized what was available: records of seismic activity, regional estimates of the orientations of stress in the rocks, and locations and orientations of zones of lateral change in rock properties at depths down to several kilometers below Earth’s surface. With these data, we created a first approximation of spatially variable risks for induced earthquakes. Because no data existed with which to test the reliability of these methods, the results have a high degree of uncertainty. Fourth, we examined the spatial variability of the above-the-ground factors that contribute to the economical viability of projects to tap low-temperature geothermal resources for direct-use. We worked principally with population density as a regionally known variable that would impact the cost of district heating. The resulting maps omit the costs of producing the hot water from the ground, because the below-ground costs are directly coupled to the thermal resource risk factor and natural reservoir risk factor – later analyses of those costs will be needed. The result of the district heating analysis is highly skewed: few census locations yielded a low estimated surface cost. The team also identified more than 165 prospects for high value direct-use geothermal energy opportunities such as industrial sites, university campuses, and federal facilities, among others. At the closure of this regional analysis, the most significant technical uncertainties are 1) reservoir distribution and capacities; 2) validity of thermal resource maps, and 3) the holistic estimation of Levelized Cost of Heat for favorable geological situations.

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