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At least 19 records

Large 0/12 GMT Differences of US Vaisala RS80 Observations

The daily differences between the temperatures and heights taken at 0 GMT and 12 GMT by Vaisala RS80 rawinsondes have been calculated. The observations were obtained during selected months from 1998 - 2002 over North America, Europe and Australia. The daily differences are defined by the formula, Delta T = Delta T(sub 0) - 0.5(T(sub -12) - T(sub +12)) where AT is the 0/12 GMT difference, T(sub 0) is the 0 GMT observation and T(sub -12) and T(sub +12) are the 12 GMT observations taken just prior and after the 0 GMT synoptic time. If T(sub +12) is missing then Delta T = T(sub 0) - T(sub -12). A similar expression is used if T(sub -12) is missing. Monthly averages of the increments at each station that launch RS80 rawinsondes are then calculated. The results show positive systematic differences in the stratosphere with values as high as 5 K and 150 m at 10 hPa over the central United States. The values remain generally positive and gradually decrease as the levels descend into the upper troposphere but are still significant. In addition, the maximum at each level is just westward of 90 W at the highest levels and just eastward in the troposphere with smaller values along both coasts. In Canada as well as in Europe and Australia the differences are much smaller with no systematic patterns similar to those that exist over the contiguous United States. Time-series plots of the temperatures and heights at select stations in the United States show that the observed values taken at 0 GMT are consistently higher than those at 12 GMT. Over Canada the differences become much less apparent and some cases non-existent. The observations were obtained through National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) but were checked with data from other sources to verify that no modifications were made other than those at the stations. Since the data from outside the the United States exhibit no large systematic differences, the preliminary conclusion is that the large differences are artificial and probably originate from the post-processing software at the observing stations.

Redder, Chris↗

GMT: A deep learning approach to generalized multivariate translation for scientific data analysis and visualization

In scientific visualization, despite the significant advances of deep learning for data generation, researchers have not thoroughly investigated the issue of data translation. We present a new deep learning approach called generalized multivariate translation (GMT) for multivariate time-varying data analysis and visualization. Like V2V, GMT assumes a preprocessing step that selects suitable variables for translation. However, unlike V2V, which only handles one-to-one variable translation during training and inference, GMT enables one-to-many and many-to-many variable translation in the same framework. We leverage the recent StarGAN design from multi-domain image-to-image translation to achieve this generalization capability. We experiment with different loss functions and injection strategies to explore the best choices and leverage pre-training for performance improvement. We compare GMT with other state-of-the-art methods (i.e., Pix2Pix, V2V, StarGAN). Furthermore, the results demonstrate the overall advantage of GMT in translation quality and generalization ability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulations of muon imaging with the LANL GMT detector for spent nuclear fuel cask content verification

Atmospheric muons are typically high energy, highly penetrating charged particles. They interact with matter primarily through multiple Coulomb scatterings. Muon scattering intensities can be used to characterize the density and atomic number of the matter that they pass through. Previously, the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) muon tomography team performed muon imaging of the partially filled MC-10 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) cask at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This experiment demonstrated the feasibility of muon imaging for the verification of spent fuel container contents. That original effort used the mini muon tracker array, consisting of two arrays of drift tubes on either side of the SNF cask. The reconstructed image quality was limited by statistics, largely due to low muon flux at high zenith angles. A LANL led team will perform new measurements with a larger array, the Giant Muon Tracker (GMT), to improve data collection rates and statistics. In this work, simulations were performed with the GMT near the partially filled INL MC-10 cask. For more general fuel diversion detection, a full MC-10 cask and casks with a singular missing fuel bundle were also simulated. To understand minimum measurement times needed for missing bundle identification, 100 000 to millions of tracked muons (corresponding to 1.4 days to several weeks measurement time) were analyzed. Simulated images were then analyzed visually and numerically to explore techniques designed to minimize the collection time needed to identify the diversion of fuel in each scenario.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Large 0/12 GMT Differences of US Vaisala RS80 Observations

Large differences been observations taken at 0 and 12 GMT have been revealed during routine monitoring of observations at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). As a result, an investigation has been conducted to confirm the large differences and isolate its source. The data clearly shows that 0/12 GMT differences are largely artificial especially over the central US and that the differences largely originate in the post processing software at the observing stations. In particular, the release time of the rawinsonde balloon may be misspecified to be the synoptic time which would lead to the miscalculation of the bias correction that accounts for solar radiation effects on the thermistor.

Atlas, Robert↗

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. Here this study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (~15°S - 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A solar plasma stream measured by DRVID and dual-frequency range and Doppler radio metric data

S- and X-band DRVID, S- and X-band dual-frequency range (SX(p)), and Doppler (SX(p)) measured a 15-fold increase in the line-of-sight electron content of the solar plasma above the normal plasma background. A general increase in the plasma electron content continued for nearly 50 hours: it started about 12:00 (GMT) on 12 March 1976 and continued to grow until 17:00 (GMT) on 14 March. For the next 55 hours, between 17:00 (GMT) on 14 March to 00:54 (GMT) on 17 March, the plasma level diminished as the background level was approached. Not only were the temporal changes and absolute level of the plasma content measured but the measurements were also used to ascertain the mean-plasma-concentration location: it was estimated to be 4.1 light minutes from earth.

Winn, F. B.↗

Scaling Irregular Applications through Data Aggregation and Software Multithreading

Bioinformatics, data analytics, semantic databases, knowledge discovery are emerging high performance application areas that exploit dynamic, linked data structures such as graphs, unbalanced trees or unstructured grids. These data structures usually are very large, requiring significantly more memory than available on single shared memory systems. Additionally, these data structures are difficult to partition on distributed memory systems. They also present poor spatial and temporal locality, thus generating unpredictable memory and network accesses. The Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) programming model seems suitable for these applications, because it allows using a shared memory abstraction across distributed-memory clusters. However, current PGAS languages and libraries are built to target regular remote data accesses and block transfers. Furthermore, they usually rely on the Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) parallel control model, which is not well suited to the fine grained, dynamic and unbalanced parallelism of irregular applications. In this paper we present {\bf GMT} (Global Memory and Threading library), a custom runtime library that enables efficient execution of irregular applications on commodity clusters. GMT integrates a PGAS data substrate with simple fork/join parallelism and provides automatic load balancing on a per node basis. It implements multi-level aggregation and lightweight multithreading to maximize memory and network bandwidth with fine-grained data accesses and tolerate long data access latencies. A key innovation in the GMT runtime is its thread specialization (workers, helpers and communication threads) that realize the overall functionality. We compare our approach with other PGAS models, such as UPC running using GASNet, and hand-optimized MPI code on a set of typical large-scale irregular applications, demonstrating speedups of an order of magnitude.

Aggregation↗

Machine learning–based extreme event attribution

The observed increase in extreme weather has prompted recent methodological advances in extreme event attribution. We propose a machine learning–based approach that uses convolutional neural networks to create dynamically consistent counterfactual versions of historical extreme events under different levels of global mean temperature (GMT). We apply this technique to one recent extreme heat event (southcentral North America 2023) and several historical events that have been previously analyzed using established attribution methods. We estimate that temperatures during the southcentral North America event were 1.18° to 1.42°C warmer because of global warming and that similar events will occur 0.14 to 0.60 times per year at 2.0°C above preindustrial levels of GMT. Additionally, we find that the learned relationships between daily temperature and GMT are influenced by the seasonality of the forced temperature response and the daily meteorological conditions. Our results broadly agree with other attribution techniques, suggesting that machine learning can be used to perform rapid, low-cost attribution of extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AVE-SEASAME 5: 25-mb sounding data

The rewinsonde sounding program for the AVE-SESAME 5 experiment is described and tubulated data at 25 mb intervals are presented for the 23 National Weather Service stations and 20 special stations participating in the experiment. Soundings were taken at 3-hr intervals beginning at 1200 GMT on May 20, 1979, and ending at 1200 GMT on may 21, 1979 (nine sounding times). A tenth sounding was teken at many special stations between 2100 and 0000 GMT on May 20. The method of processing is discussed, estimates of the rms errors in the data are presented, and an example of contact data is given. Reasons are given for the termination of soundings below 100 mb, and soundings with abnormal characteristics are listed.

Sienkiewicz, M. E.↗

A numerical evaluation of TIROS-N and NOAA-6 analyses in a high resolution limited area model

Vertical temperature profiles derived from TIROS-N and NOAA-6 radiance measurements were used to create separate analyses for the period 0000 GMT 6 January to 0000 GMT 7 January 1980. The 0000 GMT 6 January satellite analyses and a conventional analysis were used to initialize and run the University of Wisconsin's version of the Australian Region Primitive Equations model. Forecasts based on conventional analyses were used to evaluate the forecasts based only on satellite upper air data. The forecasts based only on TIROS-N or NOAA-6 data did reasonably well in locating the main trough and ridge positions. The satellite initial analyses and forecasts revealed errors correlated to the synoptic situation. The trough in both TIROS-N and NOAA-6 forecasts which was initially too warm remained too warm as it propagated eastward during the forecast period. Thus, it is unlikely that the operational satellite data will improve forecasts in a data dense region. However, in regions of poor data coverage, the satellite data should have a beneficial effect on numerical forecasts.

Derber, J. C.↗

AVE/VAS 3: 25-mb sounding data

The rawinsonde sounding program for the AVE/VAS 3 experiment is described. Tabulated data are presented at 25-mb intervals for the 24 National Weather Service stations and 14 special stations participating in the experiment. Soundings were taken at 3-hr intervals, beginning at 1200 GMT on March 27, 1982, and ending at 0600 GMT on March 28, 1982 (7 sounding times). An additional sounding was taken at the National Weather Service stations at 1200 GMT on March 28, 1982, at the normal synoptic observation time. The method of processing soundings is briefly discussed, estimates of the RMS errors in the data are presented, and an example of contact data is given. Termination pressures of soundings taken in the mesos-beta-scale network are tabulated, as are observations of ground temperature at a depth of 2 cm.

Sienkiewicz, M. E.↗

An analysis of the LFM-11 simulations of the Presidents' Day Cyclone, February 18-19, 1979

The performance of the LFM-11 model is considered for the Presidents' Day Cyclone of 1979, noting particularly the model's forecast of upper and lower level jets. Model data are presented for three periods prior to cyclogenesis: (1) 0000 GMT 18 Feb. 1979; (2) 1200 GMT 18 Feb. 1979; and (3) 0000 GMT 19 Feb. 1979. The results show tha the model did not accurately simulate an indirect circulation for the noticeably supergeostrophic STJ on 18 February in response to the confluent PFJ located in the northeast. Future work will examine to what extent the model's poor performance is a function of poor boundary layer representation or poor jet streak simulation with respect to the STJ and LLJ.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

Overshooting cloud top, variation of tropopause and severe storm formation

The development of severe multicell thunderstorms leading to the touchdown of six tornados near Pampa, TX, on May 19-20, 1982, is characterized in detail on the basis of weather maps, rawinsonde data, and radar summaries, and the results are compared with GOES rapid-scan IR images. The multicell storm cloud is shown to have formed beginning at 1945 GMT at the point of highest horizontal moisture convergence and lowest tropopause height and to have penetrated the tropopause at 2130 GMT, reaching a maximum altitude and a cloud-top black-body temperature 9 C lower than the tropopause temperature at 2245 GMT and collapsing about 20 min, when the firt tornado touched down. The value of the real-time vertical profiles provided by satellite images in predicting which severe storms will produce tornados or other violent phenomena is stressed.

Hung, R. J.↗

Impact of the initial specification of moisture and vertical motion on precipitation forecasts with a mesoscale model Implications for a satellite mesoscale data base

Using a numerical mesoscale model, four simulations were performed to determine the effects of suppressing the initial mesoscale information in the moisture and wind fields on the precipitation forecasts. The simulations included a control forecast 12-h simulation that began at 1200 GMT March 1982 and three experiment simulations with modifications to the moisture and vertical motion fields incorporated at 1800 GMT. The forecasts from 1800 GMT were compared to the second half of the control forecast. It was found that, compared to the control forecast, suppression of the moisture and/or wind initial field(s) produces a drier forecast. However, the characteristics of the precipitation forecasts of the experiments were not different enough to conclude that either mesoscale moisture or mesoscale vertical velocity at the initial time are more important for producing a forecast closer to that of the control.

Mlynczak, Pamela E.↗

Comparison of Southern Hemisphere radiosonde and LIMS temperatures at 100 mb

Radiosonde (RS)and satellite-derived (Nimbus-7 LIMS) 100-mb temperatures over New Zealand at 12 GMT are compared for the 1978-79 summer. The colocated LIMS temperature information consists of synoptically mapped values (for 12 GMT), as well as the primary nighttime orbital retrievals valid at about 1030 GMT. The RS time series of temperature is dominated by temporal fluctuations associated mainly with the eastward passage of waves which have characteristic periods of 4-5 and 11-12 days and peak-to-peak amplitudes of 10-15 K. The LIMS temperatures and the corresponding temperature time series are also found to exhibit quite close agreement (in terms of temporal phase for the latter) with the RS data. However, the LIMS-mapped temperature fluctuations suffer from a noticeable attenuation in amplitude (approaching 50 percent for higher-frequency fluctuations), which will affect the accuracy of LIMS-derived estimates of dynamical quantities such as wind velocity and relative vorticity in the lower stratosphere.

Miles, T.↗

Sonic Booms on Big Structures (SonicBOBS) Phase I Database; NASA Dryden Sensors

This DVD contains 13 channels of microphone and up to 22 channels of pressure transducer data collected in September, 2009 around several buildings located at Edwards Air Force Base. These data were recorded by NASA Dryden. Not included are data taken by NASA Langley and Gulfstream. Each day's data is in a separate folder and each pass is in a file beginning with "SonicBOBS_" (for microphone data) or "SonicBOBSBB_" (for BADS and BASS data) followed by the month, day, year as two digits each, followed by the hour, minute, sec after midnight GMT. The filename time given is for the END time of the raw recording file. In the case of the microphone data, this time may be several minutes after the sonic boom, and is according to the PC's uncalibrated clock. The Matlab data files have the actual time as provided by a GPS-based IRIG-B signal recorded concurrently with the data. Microphone data is given for 5 seconds prior to 20 seconds after the sonic boom. BADS and BASS data is given for the full recording, 6 seconds for the BADS and 10 seconds for the BASS. As an example of the naming convention, file "SonicBOBS_091209154618.mat" is from September 12, 2009 at 15:46:18 GMT. Note that data taken on September 12, 2009 prior to 01:00:00 GMT was of the Space Shuttle Discovery (a sonic boom of opportunity), which was on September 11, 2009 in local Pacific Daylight Time.

Haering, Edward A., Jr.↗

International Space Station Columbus Payload SoLACES Degradation Assessment

SOLAR is a European Space Agency (ESA) payload deployed on the International Space Station (ISS) and located on the Columbus Laboratory. It is located on the Columbus External Payload Facility in a zenith location. The objective of the SOLAR payload is to study the Sun. The SOLAR payload consists of three instruments that allow for measurement of virtually the entire electromagnetic spectrum (17 nm to 100 um). The three payload instruments are SOVIM (SOlar Variable and Irradiance Monitor), SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECctral Irradiance measurements), and SolACES (SOLar Auto‐Calibrating Extreme UV/UV Spectrophotometers). The SolACES payload includes a set of 4 spectrometers that measure the solar EUV flux from 17 nm to 220 nm. One of these 4 spectrometers failed early on (before deployment). EUV data is important in understanding the solar dynamo. Also, EUV flux is the source of most of the ionization that produces the ionosphere plasma. Plasma production is important in understanding the ionosphere environment. The ionosphere conditions affect many subjects including spacecraft charging, dynamo processes, instabilities, and communications. The 3 remaining spectrometers have collected valuable data during the historically low solar cycle 24. Some of this data will be presented. A significant trend in degradation of the remaining SolACES spectrometers was observed towards the end of CY2010 (GMT 310) through mid CY 2011 (GMT 132). The Principle Investigators of SolACES initiated a Mission Evaluation Room (MER) Chit to request an investigation of the degradation in CY 2011 (GMT 230). The Boeing Space Environments team was asked to respond to the ESA initiated MER Chit request to investigate the cause of the degradation. This paper will discuss the findings of that investigation.

Harman, William↗

Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: -0.03 to -0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by -2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗