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At least 19 records

Geospatial Framework for Estimating Household Electricity Demand for Urban Infrastructure Planning in Select African Countries

Power infrastructure planning in Sub-Saharan Africa requires accurate power demand estimates. However, these estimates are lacking in most countries which compounds the effects of unreliable electricity supply. This study utilizes a methodology that was used to forecast power demand in Uganda and extends it to other African countries of interest; Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. The goal of the study is to create spatial power demand maps that can be used for power infrastructure planning. The proposed approach utilizes a global population database at a fine resolution of 1 km2 as the foundational input data. The analysis indicates a deficit of about 22,630 MW (South Africa), 20,213 MW (Nigeria), 4,153 MW (Kenya), and 2,508 MW (Uganda) compared to the current installed capacity to meet the highest power demand scenario.

Kotikot, Susan M.↗

LandScan HD

Research in geographic information science and technology at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is addressing the need for improved human settlement detection and characterization at the world scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geographic Information Systems and Martian Data: Compatibility and Analysis

Planning future landed Mars missions depends on accurate, informed data. This research has created and used spatially referenced instrument data from NASA missions such as the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) on the Mars Odyssey Orbiter and the Mars Orbital Camera (MOC) on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Orbiter. Creating spatially referenced data enables its use in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) such as ArcGIS. It has then been possible to integrate this spatially referenced data with global base maps and build and populate location based databases that are easy to access.

Jones, Jennifer L.↗

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Database and Metrics Data of Global Surface Ozone Observations

In support of the first Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) a relational database of global surface ozone observations has been developed and populated with hourly measurement data and enhanced metadata. A comprehensive suite of ozone data products including standard statistics, health and vegetation impact metrics, and trend information, are made available through a common data portal and a web interface. These data form the basis of the TOAR analyses focusing on human health, vegetation, and climate relevant ozone issues, which are part of this special feature. Cooperation among many data centers and individual researchers worldwide made it possible to build the world's largest collection of in-situ hourly surface ozone data covering the period from 1970 to 2015. By combining the data from almost 10,000 measurement sites around the world with global metadata information, new analyses of surface ozone have become possible, such as the first globally consistent characterisations of measurement sites as either urban or rural/remote. Exploitation of these global metadata allows for new insights into the global distribution, and seasonal and long-term changes of tropospheric ozone and they enable TOAR to perform the first, globally consistent analysis of present-day ozone concentrations and recent ozone changes with relevance to health, agriculture, and climate. Considerable effort was made to harmonize and synthesize data formats and metadata information from various networks and individual data submissions. Extensive quality control was applied to identify questionable and erroneous data, including changes in apparent instrument offsets or calibrations. Such data were excluded from TOAR data products. Limitations of a posteriori data quality assurance are discussed. As a result of the work presented here, global coverage of surface ozone data for scientific analysis has been significantly extended. Yet, large gaps remain in the surface observation network both in terms of regions without monitoring, and in terms of regions that have monitoring programs but no public access to the data archive. Therefore future improvements to the database will require not only improved data harmonization, but also expanded data sharing and increased monitoring in data-sparse regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genomic analysis of Klebsiella aerogenes circulating in New Mexico

Klebsiella aerogenes is an opportunistic pathogen and a growing cause of healthcare-associated infections, characterized by multidrug resistance and the emergence of global high-risk clones. However, regional genomic surveillance data remain limited. Here, we sought to characterize the population structure, transmission dynamics and resistance mechanisms of clinical K. aerogenes in Albuquerque, New Mexico. We sequenced 177 clinical isolates collected between 2021 and 2023. We also developed a novel, species-specific PopPUNK database to facilitate rapid, high-resolution typing. The New Mexico K. aerogenes population was diverse but dominated by two global pandemic lineages, ST93 (47.5%) and ST4 (7.9%), which were significantly enriched for the virulence factors yersiniabactin and colibactin. Genomic evidence for recent local transmission was rare, with only four putative transmission pairs identified. The resistome was characterized by intrinsic and adaptive mutations. Nearly all isolates possessed gyrA mutations associated with decreased fluoroquinolone susceptibility. Mutations in the AmpC regulator AmpD and the outer membrane porin Omp36 were common, particularly within the dominant ST93 lineage. These mutations have been associated with increased AmpC-mediated carbapenem resistance. Our findings underscore the critical importance of genomic surveillance to monitor the transmission and evolution of adaptive resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical Cyclone Information System

The JPL Tropical Cyclone Infor ma tion System (TCIS) is a Web portal (http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov) that provides researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane parameters together with large-scale and convection resolving model outputs. It provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution satellite (see figure), airborne, and in-situ observations in both image and data formats. Large-scale datasets depict the surrounding environmental parameters such as SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and aerosol loading. Model outputs and analysis tools are provided to evaluate model performance and compare observations from different platforms. The system pertains to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storm, the air-sea interaction processes, and the larger-scale environment as depicted by ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Currently, the TCIS is populated with satellite observations of all tropical cyclones observed globally during 2005. There is a plan to extend the database both forward in time till present as well as backward to 1998. The portal is powered by a MySQL database and an Apache/Tomcat Web server on a Linux system. The interactive graphic user interface is provided by Google Map.

Li, P. Peggy↗

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

Development of reliable source emission inventories is needed to advance the understanding of the origin of Arctic haze using chemical transport modeling. This paper develops a regional anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the Russian Federation, the largest country by land area in the Arctic Council. Activity data from combination of local Russia information and international resources, emission factors based on either Russian documents or adjusted values for local conditions, and other emission source data are used to approximate the BC emissions. Emissions are gridded at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and developed into a monthly temporal profile. Total anthropogenic BC emission of Russia in 2010 is estimated to be around 224 Gg. Gas flaring, a commonly ignored black carbon source, contributes a significant fraction of 36.2% to Russia's total anthropogenic BC emissions. Other sectors, i.e., residential, transportation, industry, and power plants, contribute 25.0%, 20.3%, 13.1%, and 5.4%, respectively. Three major BC hot spot regions are identified: the European part of Russia, the southern central part of Russia where human population densities are relatively high, and the Urals Federal District where Russia's major oil and gas fields are located but with sparse human population. BC simulations are conducted using the hemispheric version of Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model with emission inputs from a global emission database EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research)-HTAPv2 (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) and EDGAR-HTAPv2 with its Russian part replaced by the newly developed Russian BC emissions, respectively. The simulation using the new Russian BC emission inventory could improve 30–65% of absorption aerosol optical depth measured at the AERONET sites in Russia throughout the whole year as compared to that using the default HTAPv2 emissions. At the four ground monitoring sites (Zeppelin, Barrow, Alert, and Tiksi) in the Arctic Circle, surface BC simulations are improved the most during the Arctic haze periods (October–March). The poor performance of Arctic BC simulations in previous studies may be partly ascribed to the Russian BC emissions built on out-of-date and/or missing information, which could result in biases to both emission rates and the spatial distribution of emissions. Finally, this study highlights that the impact of Russian emissions on the Arctic haze has likely been underestimated, and its role in the Arctic climate system needs to be reassessed. The Russian black carbon emission source data generated in this study can be obtained via http://abci.ornl.gov/download.shtml or http://acs.engr.utk.edu/Data.php.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dispersal, habitat filtering, and eco-evolutionary dynamics as drivers of local and global wetland viral biogeography

Abstract Wetlands store 20–30% of the world’s soil carbon, and identifying the microbial controls on these carbon reserves is essential to predicting feedbacks to climate change. Although viral infections likely play important roles in wetland ecosystem dynamics, we lack a basic understanding of wetland viral ecology. Here 63 viral size-fraction metagenomes (viromes) and paired total metagenomes were generated from three time points in 2021 at seven fresh- and saltwater wetlands in the California Bodega Marine Reserve. We recovered 12,826 viral population genomic sequences (vOTUs), only 4.4% of which were detected at the same field site two years prior, indicating a small degree of population stability or recurrence. Viral communities differed most significantly among the seven wetland sites and were also structured by habitat (plant community composition and salinity). Read mapping to a new version of our reference database, PIGEONv2.0 (515,763 vOTUs), revealed 196 vOTUs present over large geographic distances, often reflecting shared habitat characteristics. Wetland vOTU microdiversity was significantly lower locally than globally and lower within than between time points, indicating greater divergence with increasing spatiotemporal distance. Viruses tended to have broad predicted host ranges via CRISPR spacer linkages to metagenome-assembled genomes, and increased SNP frequencies in CRISPR-targeted major tail protein genes suggest potential viral eco-evolutionary dynamics in response to both immune targeting and changes in host cell receptors involved in viral attachment. Together, these results highlight the importance of dispersal, environmental selection, and eco-evolutionary dynamics as drivers of local and global wetland viral biogeography.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The biostratigraphy and paleogeography of Maastrichtian inoceramids

The global distribution of Maastrichtian inoceramids is now known in enough detail that the patterns of disappearance can be used to place first-order constraints on paleoceanographic changes that may have occurred during that age. The Inoceramidae is an excellent group to focus on in a study of Maastrichtian events for the following reasons: (1) they were globally distributed in the early Maastrichtian; (2) they did not survive the age (i.e., they undergo change during the interval); and (3) they have left a rich microfossil and macrofossil record. Some inoceramids grew to be very large; however, even the largest often passively disaggregated and are preserved as hundreds of millions of characteristic, columnar, polygonal prisms of calcite approximately 100 microns across. This taphonomic process has greatly increased the inoceramid fossil record and provides a means of objectively estimating changes in their standing population. In addition, because these prisms commonly occur in Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) cores, it is relatively easy to generate a truly global database. The existing macrofossil record of inoceramids has less temporal and spacial resolution but greater taxonomic resolution than the microfossil record. In concert the microfossil and macrofossil records of inoceramids demonstrate that important changes occurred during the Maastrichtian. These changes are distinct from the KT boundary catastrophe but are part of the larger KT transition.

Macleod, K. G.↗

SPACEWAY: Providing affordable and versatile communication solutions

By the end of this decade, Hughes' SPACEWAY network will provide the first interactive 'bandwidth on demand' communication services for a variety of applications. High quality digital voice, interactive video, global access to multimedia databases, and transborder workgroup computing will make SPACEWAY an essential component of the computer-based workplace of the 21st century. With relatively few satellites to construct, insure, and launch -- plus extensive use of cost-effective, tightly focused spot beams on the world's most populated areas -- the high capacity SPACEWAY system can pass its significant cost savings onto its customers. The SPACEWAY network is different from other proposed global networks in that its geostationary orbit location makes it a truly market driven system: each satellite will make available extensive telecom services to hundreds of millions of people within the continuous view of that satellite, providing immediate capacity within a specific region of the world.

Fitzpatrick, E. J.↗

Assessing Non-CO2 Climate-Forcing Emissions and Mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

There are few direct measurements of anthropogenic climate-forcing emissions in Africa, making it difficult to accurately assess current emissions and to anticipate changes in future emissions. Emissions databases suggest that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), home to less than 15 of the world's population, is responsible for 11 of anthropogenic methane (CH4) and 18 of anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions globally, though this includes substantial emissions from biomass burning that would occur in the absence of contemporary anthropogenic activity, and which may be over-estimated. SSA is also an important source of precursors to the greenhouse gas tropospheric ozone, and of mineral dust, which has a range of impacts on climate. Eliminating food insecurity and poverty is likely to take priority over greenhouse gas mitigation in the region, so innovations in mitigation must focus on ways to reduce emissions as an ancillary benefit of improving livelihoods.

Africa↗

Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods

Flooding affects more people than any other environmental hazard and hinders sustainable development. Investing in flood adaptation strategies may reduce the loss of life and livelihood caused by floods. Where and how floods occur and who is exposed are changing as a result of rapid urbanization4, flood mitigation infrastructure and increasing settlements in floodplains6. Previous estimates of the global flood-exposed population have been limited by a lack of observational data, relying instead on models, which have high uncertainty. Here we use daily satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018. We determine a total inundation area of 2.23 million square kilometres, with 255–290 million people directly affected by floods. We estimate that the total population in locations with satellite-observed inundation grew by 58–86 million from 2000 to 2015. This represents an increase of 20 to 24 per cent in the proportion of the global population exposed to floods, ten times higher than previous estimates. Climate change projections for 2030 indicate that the proportion of the population exposed to floods will increase further. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the satellite observations will improve our understanding of where floods are changing and how best to adapt. The global flood database generated from these observations will help to improve vulnerability assessments, the accuracy of global and local flood models, the efficacy of adaptation interventions and our understanding of the interactions between landcover change, climate and floods.

B.Tellman↗

The updated ITPA global H-mode confinement database: description and analysis

The multi-machine ITPA Global H-mode Confinement Database has been upgraded with new data from JET with the ITER-like wall and ASDEX Upgrade with the full tungsten wall. This paper describes the new database and presents results of regression analysis to estimate the global energy confinement scaling in H-mode plasmas using a standard power law. Various subsets of the database are considered, focusing on type of wall and divertor materials, confinement regime (all H-modes, ELMy H or ELM-free) and ITER-like constraints. Apart from ordinary least squares, two other, robust regression techniques are applied, which take into account uncertainty on all variables. Regression on data from individual devices shows that, generally, the confinement dependence on density and the power degradation are weakest in the fully metallic devices. Using the multi-machine scalings, predictions are made of the confinement time in a standard ELMy H-mode scenario in ITER. The uncertainty on the scaling parameters is discussed with a view to practically useful error bars on the parameters and predictions. One of the derived scalings for ELMy H-modes on an ITER-like subset is studied in particular and compared to the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling in engineering and dimensionless form. Transformation of this new scaling from engineering variables to dimensionless quantities is shown to result in large error bars on the dimensionless scaling. Regression analysis in the space of dimensionless variables is therefore proposed as an alternative, yielding acceptable estimates for the dimensionless scaling. The new scaling, which is dimensionally correct within the uncertainties, suggests that some dependencies of confinement in the multi- machine database can be reconciled with parameter scans in individual devices. This includes vanishingly small dependence of confinement on line-averaged density and normalized plasma pressure (β), as well as a noticeable, positive dependence on effective atomic mass and plasma triangularity. Extrapolation of this scaling to ITER yields a somewhat lower confinement time compared to the IPB98(y, 2) prediction, possibly related to the considerably weaker dependence on major radius in the new scaling (slightly above linear). Further studies are needed to compare more flexible regression models with the power law used here. In addition, data from more devices concerning possible ‘hidden variables’ could help to determine their influence on confinement, while adding data in sparsely populated areas of the parameter space may contribute to further disentangling some of the global confinement dependencies in tokamak plasmas.

Database↗

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling Atmospheric Science Knowledge from Research Publications

NASA Earth Science Data Centers contain enormous amounts of remote sensing digital data. It is often a significant challenge for users to find data suitable for their research topic in these vast archives. One of the approaches is the usage-driven dataset discovery, where users seek publications on projects similar to their intended study. For this approach to be effective, users need a clear connection between the underlying data in the publications and the study objectives; this is not often apparent to non-expert users. Tools and methodologies that can help facilitate and organize these connections are therefore valuable for creating improved knowledge mappings, which can be further used by search engines to suggest data or publications best tailored to a user’s specific research goal. As an illustration of these challenges, in this work we focus on the atmospheric chemistry processes related to Earth environmental impacts such as ozone depletion, aerosols, smog formation, acid rain, and radiative forcing. We further limit our study to publications that use data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument flown on the Aura Earth Observing System. To create knowledge representations of science carried out in these publications, we use existing ontologies such as the Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) and Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Terminology (SWEET). These ontologies together encompass term dictionaries that include measured variables, names of molecules or radicals, mission and instrument names, locations, action words, among many others. Based on these terms acknowledge graph database was populated with the terms retrieved from scientific publications that study atmospheric chemistry. These databases can be used to further enhance the automation of knowledge discovery and facilitate machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms or applications. These tools and methods can also be extended to apply to content from other related Earth science domains.

Irina Gerasimov↗

Global Properties of Local Star Forming Galaxies (ADP 2000)

We performed an archival study of the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope (HUT) Astro-2 database. Nineteen spectra of star-forming regions and starburst galaxies were retrieved, reprocessed, and analyzed. The spectra cover the wavelength region 912- 1800 A, providing access to the domain of peak luminosity from a young stellar population. We created an atlas of galaxy spectra documenting the continuum and line properties with an emphasis on the relatively unexplored spectral region below 1200 A. The dust obscuration law was derived from a comparison of the HUT spectra with synthetic population models. The law is similar to the commonly adopted starburst reddening curve at longer wavelengths and approaches the Milky Way law near the Lyman break. A simple power-law parameterization is given, which allows users to express the reddening law in terms of the stellar or nebular color excess at ultraviolet or optical wavelengths. We studied the effect of time-dependent dust obscuration on synthetic ultraviolet line profiles of a young stellar population. If the youngest and most massive stars are more obscured than the older, less massive stars, the C IV 1550 and other stellar wind lines are significantly diluted with respect to a simple foreground screen model for the dust. We propose to use stellar wind lines as a probe of the dust-obscuration model instead of the previously employed nebular emission lines. Since purely stellar diagnostics are utilized, uncertain assumptions on the nebular properties are unnecessary. Photoionization models demonstrate that the C IV 1550 emission is typically dominated by stellar winds and nebular contamination is negligible. A first comparison with the galaxy sample observed with the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope favors a dust geometry affecting ionizing and nonionizing stars equally. We point out the need for higher quality data for a more rigorous comparison. The Hubble Space Telescope is capable of obtaining such data in the future.

Leitherer, Claus↗

Passive Microwave Signatures and Retrieval of High-Latitude Snowfall Over Open Oceans and Sea Ice: Insights From Coincidences of GPM and CloudSat Satellites

This article studies changes in microwave signals of oceanic snowfall in response to the formation of snow-covered sea ice using active and passive coincident data from the radar and radiometer onboard the CloudSat and the global precipitation measurement satellites. Using reanalysis data of liquid and ice water path as well as satellite retrievals of sea ice snow-cover depth, spectral regions are determined over which the snowfall signatures are likely to be obscured or falsely detected. Relying on an a priori database populated with the active–passive coincidences, a Bayesian snowfall retrieval algorithm is presented that links a k -nearest neighbor matching with the inverse Gaussian estimator used in the Goddard profiling algorithm. Without relying on any ancillary data of air temperature, the results demonstrate that over open oceans (sea ice), we can passively retrieve the CloudSat active snowfalls with a true positive rate of 92 (85%) and the root mean squared error of 0.24 (0.15) mm per h.

Sajad Vahedizade↗

MCNP6 Study of Spatial Fidelity Required for ROC Curve Convergence

The detection of special nuclear material at ports and borders is one of the primary missions of the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO). In support of this mission a large-scale modeling and simulation effort has been undertaken with the goal of providing a comprehensive tool-kit that addresses the complexity of problems involved with developing and maintaining technologies deployed to global nuclear detection architecture (GNDA) nodes. An important objective of DNDO's mission is to characterize detector system performance before deployment. In the effort to support this mission, the latest version of MCNP has been used to perform detectability studies of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to populate a database that will be used for the tool-kit. The characterization method used in the implementation of the database is the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). A ROC curve shows the limits of detectability of a given system as well as an overall metric of the efficacy of a detection system. This is accomplished by comparing total detector count distributions to the count distribution produced by background alone. For an in-depth explanation of the theory behind the MCNP production of ROC curves please refer to the paper, 'How To Use The Receiver Operating Characteristic Tally Option in MCNP6'. Building a useful database requires an expansive parameter space. The current tool-kit use nine parameters, which if varied with just 5 options each, results in nearly two million simulations to run. Depending on the set of parameters these simulations can take a few hours or a few weeks to complete. This computational cost necessitates the use of scaling algorithms to interpolate between the data contained in the database. The tool-kit employs a discrete event method to simulate the movement and detector response of special nuclear material (SNM) through a GNDA node. Given the nature of a discrete event simulation, constant motion of SNM must be split up in to discrete spatial detection points. The fidelity required of the spatial splitting to achieve a properly converged answer is investigated here for a neutron detection system. The detector used was a SNAP-3 neutron detector in front of a sphere of SNM in the presence of background radiation. A parameter study has been performed to determine the spatial fidelity required for ROC curve convergence for moving objects in a discrete event simulator. It appears that 5 points is the minimum number of detection points with 7 points needed for one of the parameter sets. The convergence worsens with increases to detection length but appears to improve with increasing detector distance. These results will help future work involving quantifying the accuracy based on given tolerances and parameters. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗