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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The security implications of global climate change. Workshop summary

The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled, “The Security Implications of Global Climate Change” on January 5-7, 2021, convened virtually due to the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic. The workshop included participants from scientific/technical, defense, diplomacy, advocacy, and academic communities in the United States as well as from U.S. allies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Representation of Global Climate Change in Performance Assessment Models for Disposal of Radioactive Waste - 17183

Evolving concepts of global climate change that include impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gases require reassessment of conventional conservative approaches in performance assessment studies that assume cold and wet future glacial climates. Global paleo-climate data for the Quaternary (past 2 million years) show saw-tooth patterns (temperature/proxy temperature data versus time) of glacial and interglacial intervals accompanied by cyclical changes in the atmospheric content of CO{sub 2} (low contents during glacial cycles and higher contents during interglacial cycles). These cycles are correlated with changes in the earth's orbital configurations (Milankovitch cycles) but require nonlinear linkages with additional climate-forcing components to reproduce past glacial and interglacial transitions. The earth is currently in an interglacial period and the timing of the inception of the next glacial period is critically important for forecasting future climate states. Climate modeling studies coupling Milankovitch cycles with variable atmospheric CO{sub 2} content demonstrate conclusively that the earth is very unlikely to return to a glacial state when CO{sub 2} concentrations remain above pre-industrial levels (∼ 280 parts per million; current levels exceed 400 parts per million). A return to pre-industrial concentrations will likely require > 50,000 years and may require hundreds of thousands of years even if current emissions were to drop dramatically. The most likely scenario for the future global climate is persistence of the current interglacial period with variable but progressively increasing temperatures. Performance assessments need to revise site-specific evaluations of future climate assuming global warming within a prolonged interglacial period with increased probability of extreme weather events. Four radioactive waste disposal sites are illustrated that currently incorporate or will incorporate revised current climate concepts in modeling studies for performance assessments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Salish Sea Response to Global Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Future Nutrient Loads

Given annual occurrences of hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and evidence of coastal acidification, the potential impacts of climate change on water quality are of increasing concern in the U.S. Pacific Northwest estuaries such as the Salish Sea. While large-scale global climate projections are well documented, our understanding of the nearshore estuarine-scale response is not as well developed. In this study, the future response within the Salish Sea fjord-like environment was examined using the Salish Sea Model driven by downscaled outputs from the NCAR climate model CESM. We simulated a single projection of 95-year change under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results indicate that higher temperatures, lower pH, and decreased dissolved oxygen levels in the upwelled shelf waters in the future would propagate into the Salish Sea. Results point to potential changes in average Salish Sea temperature (≈+1.51°C), dissolved oxygen (≈-0.77 mg/L), and pH (acidification -0.18 units) in the Y2095 relative to historical Y2000. The algal biomass in the Salish Sea could increase by ≈23% with a potential species shift from diatoms towards dinoflagellates. The region of annually recurring hypoxia could increase from <1% today to ≈16% in the future. Finally, the results suggest that the future response in the Salish Sea is less severe relative to the change predicted near the continental shelf boundary. This resilience of the Salish Sea may be attributed to the existence of strong vertical circulation cells that provide mitigation and serve as a physical buffer, thus keeping waters cooler, more oxygenated, and less acidic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km 2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km 2 considering sea level rise alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions between land use, fires, and dust as drivers of global climate change (Final Technical Report)

This award to UC Irvine and Cornell University led to the publication of 18 papers, three of which are highly cited. According to ISI Web of Science, the body of work from this grant has been cited over 476 times by May 2025. Several additional publications remain in review. This grant contributed to several significant science advances, including an improved understanding of the influence of fire aerosols on global photosynthesis (Xu et al., 2021), dust-driven teleconnections between Africa and South America (Li et al., 2021), the role of fire aerosols in triggering phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic (Ardyna et al., 2022), and wildfire responses to heat waves (Li et al., in review). Several other studies are being written up for publication, and will acknowledge funding support. These efforts include an analysis in which the magnitude of tropical fire emissions from land use change is constrained by comparing E3SMv3 simulations with atmospheric observations. This work has revealed that carbon cycle model estimates of land use change may considerably overestimate the global tropical deforestation flux. The project also contributed to several technical advances, including a new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models (Leung et al., 2023), an improved representation of dust and its influence on radiation in E3SM (Feng et al., 2022), an improved representation of the dust parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (Li et al., 2022), and an improved coupling of wildfires with atmospheric chemistry in E3SM v3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Energy and Global Climate Change: The Road from Paris to Denver

This presentation provides an overview of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory; a snapshot of U.S. power sector transformation; a brief history of climate negotiations; an overview of the Paris Agreement; and what the Paris Agreement means for Colorado and beyond.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm- season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Finally, we highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy: CAM engineering in trees

We know that global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour–pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. One approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO 2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAMmembers of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. Moreover, the introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Changes in the Shadow: The Shifting Role of Shaded Leaves in Global Carbon and Water Cycles Under Climate Change

Globally shaded leaves contribute to more than a half of the total increase in gross primary production (GPP; 7.6 Pg C) for 1982–2016. During 1982–2016, the fraction of shaded GPP increases by 1.1% (p < 0.01) in tropical forests and decreases by 1.4% (p < 0.01) and 1.8% (p < 0.01) in evergreen needleleaf and deciduous needleleaf boreal forests, respectively, suggesting an ecological niche of certain canopy structure for ecosystems to achieve maximum GPP. Unlike transpiration from sunlit leaves that has a turning point in the trend in 2003, global transpiration from shaded leaves steadily increased at the rate of 34 km 3 /year (p < 0.0001) during 1982–2016. Our study therefore suggests that shaded leaves have an increasing role in buffering the adverse impact of climate change and extremes. Further studies are still needed to reduce the uncertainties in reported trends arisen from climate forcing data, leaf area index, and land cover and land change products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

This paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. The analysis is conducted using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expenditures decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.

Climate change impacts↗
DOE OSTI2017

An Overview of Literature Topics Related to Current Concepts, Methods, Tools, and Applications for Cumulative Risk Assessment (2007–2016)

Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) address combined risks from exposures to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors and may focus on vulnerable communities or populations. Significant contributions have been made to the development of concepts, methods, and applications for CRA over the past decade. Work in both human health and ecological cumulative risk has advanced in two different contexts. The first context is the effects of chemical mixtures that share common modes of action, or that cause common adverse outcomes. In this context two primary models are used for predicting mixture effects, dose addition or response addition. The second context is evaluating the combined effects of chemical and nonchemical (e.g., radiation, biological, nutritional, economic, psychological, habitat alteration, land-use change, global climate change, and natural disasters) stressors. CRA can be adapted to address risk in many contexts, and this adaptability is reflected in the range in disciplinary perspectives in the published literature. This article presents the results of a literature search and discusses a range of selected work with the intention to give a broad overview of relevant topics and provide a starting point for researchers interested in CRA applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assumptions and advantages of diagnosing climate change at global warming levels

Scientists increasingly assess climate changes at specific levels of global warming rather than at specific times in the future. This has numerous advantages over other methods of diagnosing future climate changes and allows for a more direct connection with various climate mitigation targets like the 1.5° or 2°C Paris agreement goals. A key assumption inherent to global warming levels (GWLs) is that all climate models and all future experiments that cross a given global temperature change threshold can be averaged together – that the response of the climate at a given GWL is largely independent of the emissions scenario or the sensitivity to carbon dioxide in the models comprising the average. This assumption has not been systematically vetted in the literature. Here we mine the entire CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives to determine the extent to which the climate response of several extreme climate indices at various GWLs is sensitive to the future emissions scenario and to the models’ climate sensitivities. We quantify this sensitivity to see whether using GWLs as a control in climate projections is justified. This information will be valuable for establishing the extent to which constraints on climate sensitivity can have tangible benefits for regional climate resiliency planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981–2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. In conclusion, this disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs' responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗