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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monthly Mean DNI and GTI Derived from Monthly Mean GHI and DHI Using Two Methods: Comparisons with the BSRN Data and the Results Derived from the CERES Hourly Data

Monthly mean Global Horizontal Irradiances (GHI) and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiances (DHI) are more widely available than monthly mean Direct Normal Irradiances (DNI) and Global Tilted Irradiances (GTI). Empirical methods have been developed to derive monthly mean DNI and GTI from monthly mean GHI or from GHI and DHI. In this paper, we evaluate two such methods. The first one was the Whitlock Method developed by Charles H. Whitlock (2005) for the NASA POWER project by means of regression of the BSRN data. The method expresses the monthly mean DHI-to-GHI ratio as polynomial functions of monthly mean clearness index, sunset hour angle and noon solar elevation angle on the monthly-average-day. The monthly mean DNI is calculated by dividing the monthly mean GHI-DHI difference, or DirHI, by the cosine of the solar zenith angle at the mid-time between sunrise and solar noon on the monthly-average-day. The second method is the LJCR Method developed by Liu and Jorden (1960) and Collares-Pereira and Rabl (1979), and this method empirically splits monthly mean GHI and DHI into hourly means on the monthly-average-day, and the resulting hourly mean GHI and DHI and their difference, DirHI, can then be used to compute the monthly mean DNI, GTI and the global solar tracker irradiance (GTrI). This method is also used by RETScreen. We recently produced a set of hourly DNI and DHI by bias-correcting the CERES hourly DNI and DHI, and computed hourly GTI and GTrI as well. The data span twenty plus years from March 2000 to near present on a 1 by 1 grid system. The monthly mean CERES GHI and the corrected DHI are used as inputs to the above two methods to compute monthly mean DNI, GTI and GTrI. Through comparisons with the BSRN data, it is found that the Whitlock Method, with slight modification, and the LJCR Method can produce results that are nearly as good as the results derived from the CERES hourly data.

Taiping Zhang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Hourly GHI, DHI and DNI: Intercomparison of the CERES-Based Data and the NSRDB Data through Comparison with the Ground-Based BSRN Data

The NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) SYN1deg(Ed4.1) provides hourly global horizontal irradiance (GHI), diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and direct horizontal irradiance (DirHI) at 1-degree latitude by 1-degree longitude resolution, and the time span is from March 2000 to near present. While the GHI agrees well with the ground-based Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) data, the DHI and DirHI are, respectively, positively and negatively biased against the BSRN data, and so is the direct normal irradiance (DNI) derived simply by dividing the DirHI by the cosine of the hourly solar zenith angle (SZA). We found that the biases tend to be well-defined functions of cos(SZA) and the cloud fraction (CLFR). We thus performed a bias-correction on the hourly DHI and DNI in the latitude-cos(SZA)-CLFR phase space, and therefrom, we derived the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI) at a number of tilt angles using the isotropic diffuse irradiance model, and the results agree well with the GTI derived from the original BSRN near-instantaneous records. Meanwhile, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has produced the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) with finer spatiotemporal resolution using its Physical Solar Model (PSM) and surface-based measured data, model results and satellite-based data as inputs. Now the NSRDB data covers not only the United States and its neighboring regions, but Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceania. The available temporal resolutions are 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and the spatial resolutions are 2, 4 and 10 km, depending on the selected region. In this presentation, we compare both the CERES-based and NSRDB GHI, DHI and DNI with their BSRN counterparts and show how finer spatial resolution may give us an advantage in data accuracy and usability.

Taiping Zhang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Use of the BSRN Data as A Benchmark for the POWER Hourly DHI and DNI and In Validating Derived Hourly GTI

The satellite-based CERES SYN1deg hourly data is the source data of the POWER GIS solar data that covers 2001 to near present. The SYN1deg(Ed4.1) hourly GHI agrees well with the BSRN data, but the hourly DHI and DirHI (Direct Horizontal Irradiance) are positively and negatively, respectively, biased with appreciable magnitudes. The hourly DNI, derived by dividing the DirHI by cos(SZA), or the cosine of the solar zenith angle, is therefore negatively biased. Based on the statistics of comparisons with the BSRN data, we performed bias corrections on the hourly DHI and DNI. The corrections were executed in the 3-D phase space of latitude, cos(SZA), and cloud fraction (CLFR). The isotropic model is then used to derive the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI). For validation purpose, we applied the isotropic model to the BSRN data at the original 1-, 2-, 3- or 5-minute interval. The satellite-based hourly GTI shows good agreement with their BSRN counterpart. We also examined two monthly-mean-based methods that empirically derive monthly mean GTI and DNI from monthly mean GHI and from both monthly mean GHI and DHI. The monthly-mean-based results compare favorably with the hourly-mean-based results. The GEWEX SRB (V4-IP) provides POWER with daily mean GHI for the years before the CERES era, and the data were corrected using quantile mapping by referencing the CERES SYN1deg data. We used the Kolmogorov -Smirnov test (K-S test) and Cramer-von Mises test to examine how well the results agree with the BSRN data. We found that if we set the lower limit for the daily mean GHI to 30 W m-2, the data can pass the K-S test at 0.01 significance level and the Cramer-von Mises test at 0.001 significance level. If no lower limit is set on the daily means, the data fail both tests. The satellite-based CERES SYN1deg hourly data is the source data of the POWER GIS solar data that covers 2001 to near present. The SYN1deg(Ed4.1) hourly GHI agrees well with the BSRN data, but the hourly DHI and DirHI (Direct Horizontal Irradiance) are positively and negatively, respectively, biased with appreciable magnitudes. The hourly DNI, derived by dividing the DirHI by cos(SZA), or the cosine of the solar zenith angle, is therefore negatively biased. Based on the statistics of comparisons with the BSRN data, we performed bias corrections on the hourly DHI and DNI. The corrections were executed in the 3-D phase space of latitude, cos(SZA), and cloud fraction (CLFR). The isotropic model is then used to derive the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI). For validation purpose, we applied the isotropic model to the BSRN data at the original 1-, 2-, 3- or 5-minute interval. The satellite-based hourly GTI shows good agreement with their BSRN counterpart. We also examined two monthly-mean-based methods that empirically derive monthly mean GTI and DNI from monthly mean GHI and from both monthly mean GHI and DHI. The monthly-mean-based results compare favorably with the hourly-mean-based results. The GEWEX SRB (V4-IP) provides POWER with daily mean GHI for the years before the CERES era, and the data were corrected using quantile mapping by referencing the CERES SYN1deg data. We used the Kolmogorov -Smirnov test (K-S test) and Cramer-von Mises test to examine how well the results agree with the BSRN data. We found that if we set the lower limit for the daily mean GHI to 30 W m-2, the data can pass the K-S test at 0.01 significance level and the Cramer-von Mises test at 0.001 significance level. If no lower limit is set on the daily means, the data fail both tests.

Taiping Zhang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an Erythema-Weighted UV Model Using Broadband Solar Irradiance Measurements From Eleven U.S. Sites: Preprint

Erythema-weighted UV solar irradiance (UV-E) has a potential impact on human health if the recommended maximum exposure times are exceeded. In spite of this, it is not measured at most sites that measure Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). However, since UV-E is highly correlated with GHI and total ozone content it can be estimated from this information with sufficient accuracy to assisst in public health recommendations. The Power Model (PM) provides a simple method to estimate the erythema-weighted UV irradiance (UV-E) from measured GHI, total ozone column and air mass. In this work, the performance of the PM method is assessed using high-quality data from 11 sites in the continental U.S. (part of SURFRAD and SOLRAD networks) and total ozone estimates publicly available from the MERRA-2 re-analysis database. A three year period (2021- 2023) at 1-minute frequency is considered. The results (for time aggregations of 5 and 60 minutes) show a high Pearson's correlations (> 0.99), consistently positive mean bias deviations (below 13%) and dispersions in the 8-19% range at all sites. Relative values are expressed in terms of the corresponding measurement mean. The performance indicators remain consistent across time resolutions (5 or 60 minutes), suggesting that the model's performance is robust and not significantly affected by short-term variability (which is captured by GHI). Spatial patterns reveal higher biases and RMSD in northern and eastern locations. These values represent a significant improvement over widely used satellite-based global UV-E estimates and open the possibility of using the PM with satellite-based GHI estimates for operational UV-E mapping over the contiguous U.S. territory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating UV-B, UV-Erithemic, and UV-A Irradiances From Global Horizontal Irradiance and MERRA-2 Ozone Column Information

The ground ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation is relevant due to its impacts on plastics degradation (mainly UVA) and on human health (UVB and erithemic UV (UVE)). UV ground measurements are not as ubiquitous as the relatively common global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements. Three simple models that estimate the UVA, UVB, and UVE components of solar irradiance from GHI and ozone column information are locally adjusted and validated. Five one-minute datasets from three sites in southeastern South America and two in the United States are used for simultaneous solar irradiance and UV data. All sites correspond to temperate mid-latitude regions. Simultaneous atmospheric total ozone column information is obtained from the reanalysis modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA-2) database for each site. Aside from locally adjusted models, average models with a single set of coefficients are also evaluated. For instance, the best average model is able to estimate UVE with a typical uncertainty below 12% and mean biases between +-3%, relative to the average of the measurements. Similar results are reported for the UVB and UVA components. These results, which can be useful in regions with similar climate and geography, provide a simple way to estimate UV irradiance under all-sky conditions with known uncertainty. This is an alternative to global satellite-based UV estimates, which can have high uncertainties at specific locations. Because MERRA-2 information has a global coverage, when coupled with good satellite-based estimates for GHI, UV irradiances can be estimated by this method over a large territory.

environmental UV radiation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and simulating the weather forecast uncertainty for advanced building control

Weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable despite technological advancements. Accurately quantifying and modelling this uncertainty is essential for developing and comparing advanced building controllers. In this study, we present a structured approach using a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)) to model uncertainty in ambient temperature and global solar irradiation (GHI) forecasts. We analyzed weather data from four cities and employed Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) to evaluate the similarity between synthetic and actual forecast errors. The average JSD values for temperature are 0.027 (Berkeley), 0.021 (Leuven), 0.018 (Berlin), and 0.008 (Oslo), and for GHI, the average JSD values are 0.016 (Berkeley), 0.058 (Leuven), and 0.013 (Berlin). The low JSD values indicate a high similarity between the synthetic and real forecast error distributions. Further, our approach successfully generates synthetic weather forecasts that mirror the statistical properties of actual forecasts. The implementation of our method for uncertain forecast generation is being added to the BOPTEST framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of A High-Resolution Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Studies

High-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for characterizing the variability of solar energy resources and for informing strategies that ensure grid reliability and resilience in grid systems with high levels of solar energy integration. We present the development of a new 4-km, hourly Earth system dataset for the contiguous United States (CONUS), using a statistical downscaling approach that integrates the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) with regional Earth system model projections. The new high-resolution Earth system dataset includes key variables - GHI, DNI, DHI, surface air temperature, and wind speed - under two future scenarios. Preliminary results show a reasonable agreement with NSRDB observations, with nBias less than 1% for GHI across CONUS. The dataset is expected to support in-depth analyses of extreme weather impacts and provide input to resource adequacy for future energy systems with diverse generation sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Infrared Spectroscopy of Matrix-Isolated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Cations

Gaseous, ionized polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are thought to be responsible for a very common family of interstellar infrared emission bands. Here the near- and mid-infrared spectra of the cations of the five most thermodynamically favored PAHs up to coronene: phenanthrene, pyrene, benzo(e)pyrene, benzo-(ghi)perylene, and coronene, are presented to test this hypothesis. For those molecules that have been studied previously (pyrene, pyrene-d(sub 10), and coronene), band positions and relative intensities are in agreement. In all of these cases we report additional features. Absolute integrated absorbance values are given for the phenanthrene, perdeuteriophenanthrene, pyrene, benzo(ghi]perylene, and coronene cations. With the exception of coronene, the cation bands corresponding to the CC modes are typically 2-5 times more intense than those of the CH out-of-plane bending vibrations. For the cations, the CC stretching and CH in-plane bending modes give rise to bands that are an order of magnitude stronger than those of the neutral species, and the CH out-of-plane bends produce bands that are 5-20 times weaker than those of the neutral species. This behavior is similar to that found in most other PAH cations studied to date. The astronomical implications of these PAH cation spectra are also discussed.

Hudgins, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Infrared Spectroscopy of Matrix-Isolated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Cations: The Members of the Thermodynamically Most Favorable Series through Coronene - Part 2

Gaseous, ionized polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHS) are thought to be responsible for a very common family of interstellar infrared emission bands. Here the near- and mid-infrared spectra of the cations of the five most thermodynamically favored PAHs up to coronene: phenanthrene, pyrene, benzo[e]pyrene, benzo-[ghi]perylene, and coronene, are presented to test this hypothesis. For those molecules that have been studied previously (pyrene, pyrene-d(sub 10), and coronene), band positions and relative intensities are in agreement. In all of these cases we report additional features. Absolute integrated absorbance values are given for the phenanthrene, perdeuteriophenanthrene, pyrene, benzo[ghi]perylene, and coronene cations. With the exception of coronene, the cation bands corresponding to the CC modes are typically 2-5 times more intense than those of the CH out-of-plane bending vibrations. For the cations, the CC stretching and CH in-plane bending modes give rise to bands that are an order of magnitude stronger than those of the neutral species, and the CH out-of-plane bends produce bands that are 5-20 times weaker than those of the neutral species. This behavior is similar to that found in most other PAH cations studied to date. The astronomical implications of these PAH cation spectra are also discussed.

Hudgins, D. M.↗