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At least 19 records

Corn stover cannot simultaneously meet both the volume and GHG reduction requirements of the renewable fuel standard

Corn stover is expected to supply much of the cellulosic biomass required to meet the 61 billion liters per year target under the US Energy Independence and Security Act. The Act also requires that cellulosic biofuels achieve a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction of 60% compared to gasoline. If corn stover is harvested for biofuels, it can no longer help replenish soil organic matter, and net soil carbon emissions increase. So meeting the GHG reduction target is a concern. We studied the effect of stover removal on overall GHG emissions of corn stover ethanol systems in the 12-state Corn Belt region. Even at a stover removal rate of 66%, no more than 20 billion liters can be annually produced while simultaneously satisfying the 60% GHG reduction. Moreover, no GHG reduction relative to gasoline occurs in short time periods. The GHG benefits of corn stover ethanol only appear after longer time periods.

cellulosic biofuel, corn stover, ethanol, geospati↗

Estimate of Fuel Consumption and GHG Emission Impact on an Automated Mobility District: Preprint

This study estimates the range of fuel and emissions impact of an automated-vehicle (AV) based transit system that services campus-based developments, termed an automated mobility district (AMD). The study develops a framework to quantify the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts of a transit system comprised of AVs, taking into consideration average vehicle fleet composition, fuel consumption/GHG emission of vehicles within specific speed bins, and the average occupancy of passenger vehicles and transit vehicles. The framework is exercised using a previous mobility analysis of a personal rapid transit (PRT) system, a system which shares many attributes with envisioned AV-based transit systems. Total fuel consumption and GHG emissions with and without an AMD are estimated, providing a range of potential system impacts on sustainability. The results of a previous case study based of a proposed implementation of PRT on the Kansas State University (KSU) campus in Manhattan, Kansas, serves as the basis to estimate personal miles traveled supplanted by an AMD at varying levels of service. The results show that an AMD has the potential to reduce total system fuel consumption and GHG emissions, but the amount is largely dependent on operating and ridership assumptions. The study points to the need to better understand ride-sharing scenarios and calls for future research on sustainability benefits of an AMD system at both vehicle and system levels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electrification potential of U.S. industrial boilers and assessment of the GHG emissions impact

Electrification is a key strategy for decarbonizing the industrial sector. Industrial process heating, which still relies heavily on fossil fuel combustion and accounts for the majority of sector wide GHG emissions, is a particularly attractive electrification target. Electrifying industrial boilers represents a cross-cutting opportunity for GHG emissions reductions, given their widespread use in most manufacturing industries. Yet, there are gaps in the understanding of the current population of conventional industrial boilers in the United States that preclude a characterization of boiler electrification's technical potential to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions. In this study, we develop an up-to-date dataset of the industrial boiler population in the U.S. and quantify the county-level electricity requirements and net changes in fuel use and GHG emissions under the current electric grid and theoretical future grid scenarios. Our results show an increase of 105 MMmtCO 2 e and 73 MMmtCO 2 e in GHG emissions from boiler electrification, with and without the replacement of byproduct fuels, respectively, under the current electric grid, and a reduction of 19 MMmtCO2e and 7 MMmtCO2e in GHG emissions under a future high renewables electric grid. GHG emissions savings are currently possible only in certain regions of the U.S. unless future grids are decarbonized. We also provide discussion that could be useful for policy makers and manufacturing facilities for advancing the electrification of industrial boilers in locations and industries toward fuel savings and GHG emissions reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhanced Modeling of GHG Emissions and Mitigation in NEMS Component Design Report

The Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), together with OnLocation, has developed a custom version of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), “FECM-NEMS”, that includes additional representation of energy- and industry-sector GHG emissions and mitigation options beyond those represented in the U.S. EIA's NEMS. Compared with GHG emissions published by the EPA in their Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2021, FECM-NEMS endogenously represents 81% of gross U.S. GHG emissions; however, the remaining 19%, as well as LULUCF-sector emissions and removals, are still required to properly model net-zero GHG scenarios, which requires an accounting of all GHGs. Considering recent technological advances to mitigate CO 2 and non-CO 2 emissions, the Office of Carbon Management (OCM) within FECM had tasked OnLocation with creating this component design report (CDR) to address the gap in GHG representation. This report describes how FECM-NEMS could incorporate missing GHG emissions (including LULUCF-sector emissions and removals) and engineered processes for GHG mitigation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluating temporal controls on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in an Arctic tundra environment: An entropy-based approach

We report that there is significant spatial and temporal variability associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in high-latitude Arctic tundra environments. The objectives of this study are to investigate temporal variability in CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes at Barrow, AK and to determine the factors causing this variability using a novel entropy-based classification scheme. In particular, we analyzed which geomorphic, soil, vegetation and climatic properties most explained the variability in GHG fluxes (opaque chamber measurements) during the growing season over three successive years. Results indicate that multi-year variability in CO 2 fluxes was primarily associated with soil temperature variability as well as vegetation dynamics during the early and late growing season. Temporal variability in CH 4 fluxes was primarily associated with changes in vegetation during the growing season and its interactions with primary controls like seasonal thaw. Polygonal ground features, which are common to Arctic regions, also demonstrated significant multi-year variability in GHG fluxes. Our results can be used to prioritize field sampling strategies, with an emphasis on measurements collected at locations and times that explain the most variability in GHG fluxes. For example, we found that sampling primary environmental controls at the centers of high centered polygons in the month of September (when freeze-back period begins) can provide significant constraints on GHG flux variability – a requirement for accurately predicting future changes to GHG fluxes. In conclusion, entropy results document the impact of changing environmental conditions (e.g., warming, growing season length) on GHG fluxes, thus providing clues concerning the manner in which ecosystem properties may be shifted regionally in a future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigating life cycle GHG emissions of roads to be built through 2030: Case study of a Chinese province

We report the expansion of road networks in emerging economies such as China causes significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This development is conflicting with China's commitment to achieve carbon neutrality. Thus, there is a need to better understand life cycle emissions of road infrastructure and opportunities to mitigate these emissions. Existing impact studies of roads in developing countries do not address recycled materials, improved pavement maintenance, or pavement-vehicle interaction and electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Combining firsthand information from Chinese road construction engineers with publicly available data, this paper estimates a comprehensive account of GHG emissions of the road pavement network to be constructed in the next ten years in the Shandong province in Northern China. Further, we estimate the potential of GHG emission reductions achievable under three scenario sets: maintenance optimization, alternative pavement material replacement, and EV adoption. Results show that the life cycle GHG emissions of highways and Class 1–4 roads to be constructed in the next 10 years amount to 147 Mt CO2-eq. Considering the use phase in our model reveals that it is the dominant stage in terms of emissions, largely due to pavement-vehicle interaction. Vehicle electrification can only moderately mitigate these emissions. Other stages, such as materials production and road maintenance and rehabilitation, contribute substantially to GHG emissions as well, highlighting the importance of optimizing the management of these stages. Surprisingly, longer, not shorter maintenance intervals, yield significant emission reductions. Another counter-intuitive finding is that thicker and more material-intensive pavement surfaces cause lower emissions overall. Taken together, optimal maintenance and rehabilitation schedules, alternative material use, and vehicle electrification provide GHG reduction potentials of 11%, 4%–16% and 2%–6%, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying policy gaps for achieving the net-zero GHG emissions target in the U.S. light-duty vehicle market through electrification

The U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) industry, a major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector, is embracing decarbonization. Considering only electrification pathways, this study uses publicly-available tools – MA3T and VISION on vehicle market penetration, fleet accounting and life-cycle analysis to quantify the policy gaps for LDVs to achieve the net-zero GHG emissions target in nine vehicle penetration cases under two electricity mix scenarios, including the U.S. administration's decarbonization strategy – 100% clean electricity by 2035. The MA3T model is a multinomial discrete choice model for market share projection by vehicle technology, and the VISION is a vehicle stocks and GHG emissions projection model by using vehicle and travel characteristics. This study projects the impacts of technology and policy enforcement on shaping the dynamics and decarbonization of the LDV market. Additionally, achieving the expected improvement of battery technology and charging infrastructure is critical but can only reduce the 2050 GHG emissions to 48–54% of the 2020 level under the electricity renewable mix scenario. It is almost impossible to achieve a 100% battery electric vehicle stock by 2050 and the 2050 net-zero target in the LDV industry unless ban of internal combustion engine technology is implemented starting in 2035 and under the 2035 100% clean electricity scenario. These extreme conditions also sacrifice most from the consumer welfare perspective. A greater policy forcing intensity accelerates plug-in electric vehicle penetration, while with declining marginal effect and reduced consumer welfare. Among the investigated policy scenarios, the policy forcing intensity equivalent to a fuel tax of $1–2 per gasoline gallon reduces the most GHG emissions while keeping a positive consumer welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Understanding Variability To Reduce the Energy and GHG Footprints of U.S. Ethylene Production

Recent growth in U.S. ethylene production due to the shale gas boom is affecting the U.S. chemical industry's energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions footprints. To evaluate these effects, a systematic, first-principles model of the cradle-to-gate ethylene production system was developed and applied. The variances associated with estimating the energy consumption and GHG emission intensities of U.S. ethylene production, both from conventional natural gas,and from shale gas, are explicitly analyzed. A sensitivity analysis illustrates that the large variances in energy intensity are due to process parameters (e.g., compressor efficiency), and that large variances in GHG emissions intensity are due to fugitive emissions from upstream natural gas production. On the basis of these results, the opportunities with the greatest leverage for reducing the energy and GHG footprints are presented. The model and analysis provide energy analysts and policy makers with a better understanding of the drivers of energy use and GHG emissions associated with U.S. ethylene production. They also constitute a rich data resource that can be used to evaluate options for managing the industry's footprints moving forward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Minimum GHG emissions and energy consumption of U.S. PET and polyolefin packaging supply chains in a circular economy

There is a wide agreement on the urgency of transforming linear management of plastics towards a circular economy model. However, no clear pathways exist as to required recycling technologies involved and system-wide environmental impacts. This study explores such pathways in the U.S. for the most commonly used packaging plastics through a combination of mechanical and emerging advanced recycling technologies. A system optimization model aimed at minimizing environmental impacts was developed to determine optimal end-of-life (EOL) management and locations of existing and emerging U.S. recycling infrastructures. Our study includes material flows from virgin resin production through semi-manufacturing processes to existing EOL disposal and recycling processes. An optimized circular plastics packaging system achieved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings of up to 28% and cumulative energy demand (CED) savings of up to 46%, compared to the linear economy. Moreover, these savings of GHG emissions and CED impacts represent a reduction of 0.16% and 0.49% compared to annual U.S. GHG emissions and energy consumption in 2022, respectively. The optimal recycling rates and systems-level circularity ranged from 78–99% and 57–75%, respectively. Increased energy savings led to increased GHG emissions showing a potential trade-off between GHG emissions and energy. Analysis of 40 scenarios showed the importance of material collection distances, blend limit of mechanically recycled resins, process yields, and mandated recycling rates for achieving a sustainable circular economy of plastics.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Long-term integrated soil-crop management improves soil microbial community structure to reduce GHG emission and increase yield

Integrated soil-crop management (ISCM) has been shown as an effective strategy to increase efficiency and yield while its soil microbial community structure and function remain unclear. We evaluated changes in soil physicochemical factors, bacterial community structure responses, and the contributions of soil properties and bacterial communities to summer maize-winter wheat yield and GHG emissions through an ISCM experiment [T1 (local smallholder farmers practice system), T2 (improved management system), T3 (high–yield production system), and T4 (optimized management system)], which could provide scientific guidance for sustainable development of soil in summer maize-winter wheat rotation system. The results showed that the optimized ISCM could improve the soil quality, which significantly changed the soil bacterial community structure to reduce GHG emissions and increase yield. The co-occurrence network density of T3 was increased significantly. The Acidobacteria (class) and OM190 (class) were enriched in T2 and T4. The Frankiales (order) and Gaiellales (order) were enriched in T3. However, the changes in different crop growth stages were different. At the wheat jointing stage and maize mature stage, T4 could enhance carbon-related functional groups, such as aromatic hydrocarbon degradation and hydrocarbon degradation, to increase the soil organic carbon content. And at the maize tasseling stage, T4 could enhance nitrogen-related functional groups. And soil bacteria structure and function indirectly affected annual yield and GHG emission. T2 and T4 exhibited a similar soil microbial community. However, the yield and nitrogen use efficiency of T2 were reduced compared to those of T4. The yield of T3 was the highest, but the GHG emission increased and soil pH and nitrogen use efficiency decreased significantly. Therefore, T4 was a suitable management system to improve soil quality and soil bacterial community structure and function to decrease GHG emissions and increase the yield of the summer maize-winter wheat rotation system.

Yu, Ningning↗

Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $\$181$ Mg –1 CO 2 e to more than $\$444$ Mg –1 CO 2 e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Furthermore, our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Implementation of waste-to-energy options in landfill-dominated countries: Economic evaluation and GHG impact

Highlights: • Replacing landfilling with WtE schemes in landfill-dominated European countries. • WtE schemes provide GHG reduction potential compared with landfilling. • Gasification schemes compare favorably with incineration. • Gasification with engine is the best option for GHG emissions and profitability. • Gate fee is the main factor affecting profitability in WtE schemes. - Abstract: The economic and environmental impact of several waste-to-energy (WtE) schemes to produce electricity from municipal solid waste (MSW) refuse is evaluated and compared with landfill disposal. Both incineration and gasification alternatives are considered. The gasification option includes three different configurations: (1) a fluidized bed gasifier (FBG) with internal combustion engine (ICE), (2) a FBG with organic Rankine cycle (ORC) and (3) a grate gasifier with steam Rankine cycle (SRC). The study is primarily applied to regions where the management system is based on Mechanical Biological Treatment (MBT) plants, generating a large share of refuse (>70%), which is currently landfilled. The specific case of Andalusia, a region in the south of Spain with 23 MBT plants distributed over a region of 87.000 km{sup 2}, where about 80% of municipal solid waste (MSW) is currently landfilled, is taken as main reference; thereafter, the study is further extended to preliminary assess other regions of some European landfill-dominated countries with similar characteristics. The results show that both incineration and gasification improve landfill disposal, contributing favorably to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and fulfilling EU environmental regulations, although the three gasification options analyzed yield lower GHG emissions than incineration. In addition, gasification enables better integration of WtE into existing MBT plants, especially in the particular case of Andalusia, where MBT plants are widespread on the region, making it a more promising option than incineration, which is mainly based on large centralized plants, and less socially accepted. From the options analyzed, the WtE scheme based on FBG with ICE gives the highest profitability for a given gate fee, due to much higher electrical efficiency. However, FBG with ORC seems to be a better option in the short-term for landfill-dominated countries, due to its higher technical reliability and the low gate fee currently available in these countries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Temporal Variability in Reservoir Surface Area Is an Important Source of Uncertainty in GHG Emission Estimates

Ebullitive methane (CH 4 ) emissions in lentic ecosystems tend to concentrate at river-lake interfaces and within shallow littoral zones. However, inconsistent definitions of the littoral zone and static representations of the lake or reservoir surface area contribute to major uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates, particularly in reservoirs with large water-level fluctuations. This study examines temporal variation in littoral and total surface areas of US reservoirs and demonstrates how different methods and data sources lead to discrepencies in reservoir GHG emissions at large scales and over time. We also explore variability in remotely sensed water occurrence according to maximum surface area, reservoir purposes, and hydrologic regions. Notably, the largest relative variability in surface area is exhibited by small reservoirs with a maximum surface area <1 km 2 and non-hydroelectric reservoirs. Additionally, we use a case study of measured CH 4 emissions from the southeastern United States (Douglas Reservoir) to illustrate the effects of varying surface area on reservoir-wide GHG estimates. Upscaled CH 4 emissions in Douglas Reservoir differed by nearly two-fold depending on the source of total surface area data and whether estimates accounted for seasonal fluctuations in surface area. During seasonal drawdown in Douglas Reservoir, relative littoral area varies non-linearly; periods of lower pool elevation (and thus larger relative littoral area) likely contribute disproportionately high CH 4 emission rates compared to the commonly sampled summer season when water levels are at full-pool elevation. Improved GHG monitoring and upscaling techniques require accounting for temporal variability in reservoir surface extent and littoral area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating energy consumption and GHG emissions in the U.S. food supply chain for net-zero

This work provides a database of the U.S. food system’s energy consumption and GHG emissions at the national and state levels by food supply chain (FSC) stage, fuel type, and food commodity. We estimate that the U.S. FSC consumed a total 4660 TBTU (4900 PJ) of site energy, 7130 TBTU (7500 PJ) of primary energy, and generated 970 MMT of GHG emissions in 2016. Among all the stages, on-farm production is the largest energy consumer (31% primary energy) and GHG emissions contributor (70%), largely due to raising animals. Optimizing distribution can reduce the stage’s energy consumption and GHG emissions and increase products’ shelf-life. Reducing food loss and waste is another good option, as it decreases the amount of food necessary to grow, thus impacting the overall FSC. The database can help stakeholders identify stage- and region-specific strategies and measures to curtail the environmental footprint of the U.S. food system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data for Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $181 Mg−1 CO2e to more than $444 Mg−1 CO2e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region. Note: Column V in TableS7_DayCentSimulatedYield.csv should be labelled Corn Stover CoSo-NT-50% Max.

Geospatial↗

CORSIA: The first internationally adopted approach to calculate life-cycle GHG emissions for aviation fuels

The aviation sector has grown at a significant pace in recent years, and despite improvements in aircraft efficiency, the sector's impact on climate change is a growing concern. To address this concern, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) to help reduce aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents a methodology agreed by the 193 ICAO member states to evaluate the life-cycle GHG emissions of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), in the CORSIA system. The core life-cycle assessment and induced land use change values of SAFs are presented to determine the GHG savings of certified pathways. The paper aims to present that a number of SAFs can yield significant life-cycle emission reductions compared to petroleum-derived jet fuel. This implies the potentially major role of SAFs in reducing aviation's carbon footprint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of biofuel life-cycle GHG emissions assessment tools: The case studies of ethanol produced from sugarcane, corn, and wheat

The use of alternative fuels, particularly bio-based fuels, has been an important strategy to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions compared to petroleum-based fuels. However, discrepancies between results obtained by using different attributional life-cycle assessment (LCA) tools have challenged the credibility of the individual assessments, and as result, the progress towards or compliance with GHG mitigation targets. The objective of this study was to identify the main differences and commonalities in methodological structures, calculation procedures, and assumptions for the major commercial biofuel, ethanol, across three public LCA tools, BioGrace (EU), GHGenius (Canada), and GREET (U.S.), and a research-oriented fourth, the Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery (VSB), a Brazilian platform for sugarcane ethanol assessments. The calculated emissions across models ranged from 16 to 45 for sugarcane, 43-62 for corn, and 45-68 g CO 2 eq MJ -1 for wheat ethanol. Harmonizing the three public models with VSB assumptions for sugarcane ethanol produced in Brazil, the range was reduced to 16-17 g CO 2 eq MJ -1 for sugarcane ethanol. Agricultural production (e.g., N 2 O emissions from fertilizers; energy and fuel use; straw field-burning; and limestone application) and ethanol shipping were found to be the major causes for variations for differences calculated for sugarcane ethanol. Similarly, harmonizing BioGrace and GHGenius calculations using GREET assumptions for U.S. corn ethanol generated nearly identical results (models varied within a 3% range). The coproduct treatment method was found to be the most influential parameter in the variations calculated for both corn and wheat ethanol. The application of the tools as part of GHG emissions accounting requirements is often defined via regulations and differences and/or conflicting assumptions set-forth in these models lead to most differences observed. Our study provides recommendations for promoting transparency in LCA calculations and assumptions across the tools used in research and development or for regulatory tools regarding biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗