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Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Options for Meeting Data Center Demand in Virginia: Focus on GETs and Reconductoring [Slides]

Data center demand growth in Virginia will need to met with many options - GETs and/or reconductoring have the potential to be part of the solution suite in the short-term and medium-term. Almost all GETs and reconductoring technologies have more favorable economics than transmission wires investments considering relatively low levels of existing wide-scale deployment. Deployment of GETs and/or reconductoring is not a one size fits all - requires detailed analysis. The complementary nature of GETs and/or reconductoring impacts have the potential to be synergistic (more congestion relief, more transfer capability, more cost savings - when implemented together).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Advanced Transmission Technologies – GETs and HPCs Session 1: ATT Foundations and Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs)

The INL TADA GETs Cohort Session 1, held on November 4, 2025, convened experts to address the integration of advanced transmission technologies, including Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) and High Performance Conductors (HPCs), with a focus on digital assurance challenges. The session highlighted the growing importance of cybersecurity, supply chain transparency, reliability, and business risk management in deploying GETs, especially Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs). Participants examined how expanded attack surfaces, limited vendor pools, and new regulatory requirements—such as FERC Orders 881, 2023, and 1920—are influencing utilities and technology providers. The workshop underscored the need for cyber-informed engineering, secure-by-design principles, and practical risk management strategies, while fostering collaboration and knowledge sharing among industry peers. Technical discussions covered the evolution from static to dynamic line ratings, complexities of cloud-based architectures, and NERC CIP compliance challenges. The session concluded with a collaborative risk exercise and a preview of future workshops on advanced power flow control and transmission topology optimization, reinforcing the cohort’s commitment to advancing digital assurance in the energy sector.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as “hot-season-gets-hotter” phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1?K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advanced Transmission Technologies – GETs and HPCs Session 2: Advanced Power Flow Control and Transmission Topology Optimization

The INL TADA GETs Cohort Session 2, held on November 7, 2025, conducted in collaboration with ScottMadden, focused on two core Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs): Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC) and Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO). These technologies are pivotal in enhancing grid flexibility, reliability, and cybersecurity resilience. APFC, particularly through modular FACTS devices like Modular Static Synchronous Series Compensators (M-SSSCs), enables dynamic voltage injection to reroute power flows. The session highlighted the deployment benefits of APFC, such as rapid installation, minimal civil works, and re-deployability. Regulatory drivers like FERC Order 2023 mandate the inclusion of Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) in interconnection studies. Case studies from Central Hudson, CAISO, and National Grid (UK) demonstrated APFC’s effectiveness in congestion relief and cost savings. The session also addressed cybersecurity concerns, including firmware vulnerabilities, SCADA integration risks, and supply chain dependencies. Participants engaged in interactive exercises to rank cybersecurity and supply chain risks, emphasizing the need for robust digital assurance strategies. TTO involves software-based reconfiguration of transmission networks to optimize power flow without new infrastructure. The session showcased its operational value, with examples from SPP, PJM, and MISO showing significant congestion cost reductions. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities were discussed, particularly in API security and software supply chains, referencing incidents like SolarWinds and attacks on Danish utilities. Digital assurance exercises explored worst-case scenarios, attack paths, and mitigation responsibilities between vendors and utilities. Reliability challenges such as algorithm stability, vendor dependency, and operator trust were also examined. Cross-cutting themes emphasized the importance of digital assurance tools, including Software Bills of Materials (SBOMs) and hardware-in-loop testing. Human performance, training, and operational confidence were identified as critical enablers of technology adoption. The session concluded with a preview of Session 3, which will focus on High Performance Conductors (HPCs) and risk-based cybersecurity tools. Session 2 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Advanced Transmission Technologies –GETs and HPCs Session 3: HPCs and Building Actions Plans to Digital Assurance Risks

The third session of the Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) program, held on November 11, 2025, centered on High Performance Conductors (HPCs) and the formulation of action plans to address digital assurance risks associated with Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs). This session convened experts from utilities, vendors, and government agencies to examine the technical, operational, and cybersecurity aspects of HPC deployment. Discussions highlighted the benefits of HPCs, such as their ability to rapidly increase transmission capacity using existing corridors, improve grid resilience, reduce system losses, and align with FERC Orders 2023 and 1920. Participants evaluated supply chain and digital assurance risks, including reliance on imported materials, limited domestic manufacturing capacity, workforce shortages, and traceability issues. The session also emphasized the importance of digital trust, integration-layer cybersecurity, and unified risk frameworks, introducing tools like intrusion detection systems, encryption, zero trust networking, and firmware integrity. Recaps of earlier workshops on Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs), Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC), and Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO) underscored institutional barriers and integration challenges. Action plans were proposed to mitigate issues such as inconsistent cybersecurity practices, SBOM usage, supply chain visibility, operator trust, and misaligned incentives. Additionally, INL presented its supply chain risk management tools and Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles to support secure procurement and system design. The session concluded with a commitment to share key takeaways, incorporate cohort feedback into future policy development, and continue collaborative engagement through upcoming pilot activities. Session 3 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

OpenCSP Step-by-Step: Getting Started Guide for Windows (V.1.0)

This document provides a step-by-step tutorial on how to set up OpenCSP for both users and developers. It is meant to support novice users and does not require software engineering experience. It is a detailed extension of the OpenCSP getting started on-line documentation, found here: https://opencsp.readthedocs.io/en/main/contributing.html#getting-started. For an overview of OpenCSP overall, see the OpenCSP website: https://opencsp.sandia.gov. For details on OpenCSP components and algorithm, see the references.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Getting allometry right at the Oak Ridge free‐air CO 2 enrichment experiment: Old problems and new opportunities for global change experiments

Societal Impact Statement Free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiments provide essential data on forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 for evaluations of climate change impacts on humanity. Understanding and reducing the uncertainty in the experimental results is critical to ensure scientific and public confidence in the models and policy initiatives that derive therefrom. One source of uncertainty is the estimation of tree biomass using mathematical relationships between biomass and easily obtained and non‐destructive measurements (allometry). We evaluated the robustness of the allometric relationships established at the beginning of a FACE experiment and discuss the challenges and opportunities for the new generation of FACE experiments. Summary Long‐term field experiments to elucidate forest responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration require allometric equations to estimate tree biomass from non‐destructive measurements of tree size. We analyzed whether the allometric equations established at the beginning of a free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in a Liquidambar styraciflua plantation were still valid at the end of the 12 year experiment. Aboveground woody biomass was initially predicted by an equation that included bole diameter, taper, and height, assuming that including taper and height as predictors would accommodate changes in tree structure that might occur over time and in response to elevated CO 2 . At the conclusion of the FACE experiment, we harvested 23 trees, measured dimensions and dry mass of boles and branches, and extracted and measured the woody root mass of 10 trees. Although 10 of the harvested trees were larger than the trees used to establish the allometric relationship, measured aboveground woody biomass was well predicted by the original allometry. The initial linear equation between bole basal area and woody root biomass underestimated final root biomass by 28%, but root biomass was just 21% of total wood mass, and errors in aboveground and belowground estimates were offsetting. The allometry established at the beginning of the experiment provided valid predictions of tree biomass throughout the experiment. New allometric approaches using terrestrial laser scanning should reduce an important source of uncertainty in decade‐long forest experiments and in assessments of centuries‐long forest biomass accretion used in evaluating carbon offsets and climate mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Getting to the root of the problem: Soil carbon and microbial responses to root inputs within a buried paleosol along an eroding hillslope in southwestern Nebraska, USA

Large quantities of soil carbon (C) can persist within paleosols for millennia due to burial and subsequent isolation from plant-derived inputs, atmospheric conditions, and microbial activity at the modern surface. Erosion exposes buried soils to modern root-derived C influx via root exudation and root turnover, thus stimulating microbial activity leading to SOC decomposition and accumulation through organo-mineral stabilization of modern C. With this study we aim to quantify how modern root-derived C inputs impact paleosol C decomposition and stabilization across varying degrees of isolation from modern surface conditions in southwestern Nebraska, USA, where hillslope erosion is bringing a buried Late-Pleistocene-early Holocene paleosol (the “Brady Soil”) closer to the modern surface. We collected Brady Soil samples from 0.2m, 0.4m, and 1.2m below the modern surface and conducted two lab-based incubations. Soils were amended with either (1) a lab-synthesized mixture of low molecular weight compounds (12 atom% 13 C), or (2) 13 C enriched root residues (92 atom% 13 C), in 30-day and 240-day incubation experiments, respectively. Here we determined microbial responses to synthetic root exudates and residues by partitioning the 13 C label from Brady Soil C, including measurements of total, root, and primed C respiration, microbial biomass C (MBC), microbial C use efficiency (CUE). To assess the capacity of isolated paleosols to accrue modern plant C, we used Nano-scale Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry imaging. We found that: (1) adding root-derived C inputs primed Brady Soil C across all depths, and was mediated by depth and composition of root additions; (2) root-derived C inputs stimulated microbial biomass C (MBC) growth similarly across depths, but the magnitude of CUE and MBC varied by chemistry of root-derived additions; (3) new particulate organic matter was incorporated into mineral-associated pools over time; (4) material from the added root residues was found in association with bacterial cells and fungal hyphae as well as with soil aggregate and mineral surfaces. Our study shows that paleosols defy expectations of C content and reactivity with depth, and changes in land cover and climate will expose buried paleosols to modern surface conditions, increasing respired C. This work highlights the importance of evaluating the role resurfacing buried soils through landscape change plays in C cycle feedbacks to the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Let’s Get Real: Are Wearable Plant Sensors Ready for Crop Monitoring?

In recent years, the number of publications describing new and exciting developments in wearable plant sensors (WPSs) has skyrocketed. These small, lightweight sensors hold promise to assist precision agriculture and may thus help reduce crop losses, increase resource use efficiency, and automate crop production. However, WPSs are often not adequately tested in environments relevant for crop growth, and the majority of experimental WPS studies reveal a glaring lack of basic knowledge of plant biology. This review aims to bridge the communication gap between WPS developers and the wider plant research community by (1) providing essential physiological and environmental background information for engineers in relation to WPS sensing capabilities, (2) offering a step-by-step guide to conduct sensor tests on plants correctly, and (3) highlighting potential challenges and suggesting WPS applications in the open field, greenhouses, and vertical farming systems. We hope this review facilitates the development of WPSs and guides them to be truly “ready for the world”.

crop monitoring

Ultrathin liquid sheets: water gets in shape for VUV absorption

We present absorption spectra of thin, free-flowing liquid sheets in the vacuum ultraviolet energy range using a gas-squeezed liquid jet. Compared to liquid flow cells, operation without transmission windows eliminates restrictions on the energy range. The temperature of the water sheet is estimated at 0 ± 3 °C, at the verge of the supercooled regime. By adjusting flow conditions in situ, we recorded absorption spectra at water sheet thicknesses ranging from 20 to 50 nm. We show that the absorption spectra of thin jets contain significant contributions from interference effects that need to be deconvoluted from spectral contributions due to the electronic structure. We employ a Fresnel propagation model to model the spectral changes and understand the impact of thickness variations and thin film interference. This opens the door for the investigation of solvation, interface, and similar effects by recording valence band spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Will cities keep getting hotter? The interplay of urban expansion and greening reshapes future urban heat trajectories

Urban heat islands (UHIs) pose growing risks to public health, infrastructure, and resilience. While often assumed to intensify with urban growth, dynamic changes in urban expansion and vegetation greenness complicate UHI trajectories, which remain poorly understood. This study investigated the interplay of urban expansion and greenness change on UHI spatial profile across 36 Chinese megacities during 2003–2018 using multiple satellite products. We introduce a framework that classifies urban areas into four dynamic development pathways based on impervious surface area (ISA) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) trends: urbanized-greening, urbanized-browning, urbanizing-greening (UingG), and urbanizing-browning (UingB). While most urbanized centers exhibited greening driven by targeted initiatives and urbanizing suburbs showed browning due to vegetation loss, about 30% urban areas showed the reverse pattern, revealing overlooked complexity in urban development. Urban expansion and browning strengthened UHI in suburban areas, whereas greening initiatives mitigated UHI in urban center and mitigated UHI enhancement in suburban areas. Slowed warming in urban centers together with accelerated warming in suburban areas flattened the temperature gradient between urban centers and suburbs. This dynamic expanded the spatial extent of elevated temperatures and reshaped the classic urban-to-rural UHI profile into a flatter form. In UingB areas, UHI intensification was jointly driven by increase in ISA, vegetation loss, and their interaction, while in UingG areas, EVI increases and a negative interaction together offset over half of the warming driven by urban expansion. These findings reveal that UHI evolution is not unidirectional but depends on localized urbanization and greening dynamics, offering pathways for strategic heat mitigation.

greening initiative

Getting to the bottom of it: do laser-driven coils really work? (Final Technical Report)

Since claims of ultra-high (up to ~ 1.5 kiloTesla) magnetic fields appeared in the scientific literature, it became necessary to conduct controlled experiments to determine the validity of these claims and assess the real capability of laser-driven coils (LDCs) to produce high B-field to be used in HEDP (high energy density physics) experiments. This project assessed the viability of generating magnetic fields using LDCs. This was accomplished with a thorough analysis of several focused experiments on the OMEGA EP laser at LLE designed to measure the magnetic field inside LDCs. We demonstrated how problems with prior diagnostic analyses have led to overestimations of the magnetic fields generated from LDCs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Producing Dollars from Produced Water: How we Get There and Why we Should

Recent studies have shown that produced water and drill cuttings from the development of unconventional shale in Appalachia has a significant source of valuable critical minerals, including lithium, putting Pennsylvania in a unique position to capitalize. This session presents how we capitalize on this opportunity to produce dollars from produced water, the opportunities, and the challenges.

critical minerals, lithium, rare earth elements

Getting Started with Evaluations with Means and Uncertainties (EMU 3.0)

One of the most fundamental quantities in nuclear physics is the reaction cross section. A cross section represents the probability that a nuclear reaction will resolve through a given channel given a target nucleus and a projectile with a certain energy. A nuclear evaluation is a set of discrete data and interpolation rules to convert those discrete nuclear reaction data—such as the cross section—into a continuous function at arbitrary energies. Evaluated nuclear data files that can appear in Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF) and Generalized Nuclear Data Structure (GNDS) formats, storing a “most-complete” discretized representation of nuclear data, based on both experimental measurements and theory models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS