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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Dependence of EMIC wave parameters during quiet, geomagnetic storm, and geomagnetic storm phase times

As electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves may play an important role in radiation belt dynamics, there has been a push to better include them into global simulations. How to best include EMIC wave effects is still an open question. Recently many studies have attempted to parameterize EMIC waves and their characteristics by geomagnetic indices. However, this does not fully take into account important physics related to the phase of a geomagnetic storm. In this paper we first consider how EMIC wave occurrence varies with the phase of a geomagnetic storm and the SYM-H, AE, and Kp indices. Here we show that the storm phase plays an important role in the occurrence probability of EMIC waves. The occurrence rates for a given value of a geomagnetic index change based on the geomagnetic condition. Then in this study we also describe the typical plasma and wave parameters observed in L and magnetic local time for quiet, storm, and storm phase. These results are given in a tabular format in the supporting information so that more accurate statistics of EMIC wave parameters can be incorporated into modeling efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Forecasting Geomagnetic Storms

We present a selection of attempts to infer geomagnetic storm properties from time series data. Initially, we unsuccessfully attempt to predict the duration of a geomagnetic storm based on data preceding the onset of a geomagnetic storm. Similar techniques are also used to attempt to predict the maximum depth of a geomagnetic storm. Additionally, we present a case study in Gaussian Process regression, where we are able to accurately interpolate between geomagnetic storm parameters, but are unable to predict future storm behavior. Lastly, we describe attempts at using random forest regression with sliding windows to infer geomagnetic storm behavior at future times. These results did not provide robust forecasts of geomagnetic storm behavior, but did occasionally correctly predict a storm within the margin of error. Techniques presented in this paper include machine learning classification and regression, Gaussian Process regression, and machine learning regression with sliding windows. Many of the attempts presented in this document did not result in meaningful predictions of geomagnetic storm behavior. We hope this document can be used as a guide for future readers attempting to predict geomagnetic storm properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Relativistic Electron Increase During Chorus Wave Activities on the 6–8 March 2016 Geomagnetic Storm

There was a geomagnetic storm on 6–8 March 2016, in which Van Allen Probes A and B separated by ~2.5 h measured increase of relativistic electrons with energies approximately several hundred keV to 1 MeV. Simultaneously, chorus waves were measured by both Van Allen Probes and Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. Some of the chorus elements were rising tones, possibly due to nonlinear effects. In this paper, these measurements are compared with a nonlinear theory of chorus waves incorporating the inhomogeneity ratio and the field equation. From this theory, a chorus wave profile in time and one-dimensional space is simulated. Test particle calculations are then performed in order to examine the energization rate of electrons. Some electrons are accelerated, although more electrons are decelerated. Finally, the measured time scale of the electron increase is inferred to be consistent with this nonlinear theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms

We report that past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms (Dst >₋50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The evolution of ring current ion energy density and energy content during geomagnetic storms based on Van Allen Probes measurements

Enabled by the comprehensive measurements from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS), Helium Oxygen Proton Electron mass spectrometer (HOPE), and Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE) instruments onboard Van Allen Probes in the heart of the radiation belt, the relative contributions of ions with different energies and species to the ring current energy density and their dependence on the phases of geomagnetic storms are quantified. The results show that lower energy (<50 keV) protons enhance much more often and also decay much faster than higher-energy protons. During the storm main phase, ions with energies <50 keV contribute more significantly to the ring current than those with higher energies; while the higher-energy protons dominate during the recovery phase and quiet times. The enhancements of higher-energy proton fluxes as well as energy content generally occur later than those of lower energy protons, which could be due to the inward radial diffusion. For the 29 March 2013 storm we investigated in detail that the contribution from O + is ~25% of the ring current energy content during the main phase and the majority of that comes from <50 keV O + . This indicates that even during moderate geomagnetic storms the ionosphere is still an important contributor to the ring current ions. Using the Dessler-Parker-Sckopke relation, the contributions of ring current particles to the magnetic field depression during this geomagnetic storm are also calculated. In conclusion, the results show that the measured ring current ions contribute about half of the Dst depression.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SUN-TO-EARTH CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS INTERACTING NEAR 1 AU: FORMATION OF A COMPLEX EJECTA AND GENERATION OF A TWO-STEP GEOMAGNETIC STORM

On 2012 September 30-October 1 the Earth underwent a two-step geomagnetic storm. We examine the Sun-to-Earth characteristics of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the geomagnetic storm with combined heliospheric imaging and in situ observations. The first CME, which occurred on 2012 September 25, is a slow event and shows an acceleration followed by a nearly invariant speed in the whole Sun-Earth space. The second event, launched from the Sun on 2012 September 27, exhibits a quick acceleration, then a rapid deceleration, and finally a nearly constant speed, a typical Sun-to-Earth propagation profile for fast CMEs. These two CMEs interacted near 1 AU as predicted by the heliospheric imaging observations and formed a complex ejecta observed at Wind, with a shock inside that enhanced the pre-existing southward magnetic field. Reconstruction of the complex ejecta with the in situ data indicates an overall left-handed flux-rope-like configuration with an embedded concave-outward shock front, a maximum magnetic field strength deviating from the flux rope axis, and convex-outward field lines ahead of the shock. While the reconstruction results are consistent with the picture of CME-CME interactions, a magnetic cloud-like structure without clear signs of CME interactions is anticipated when the merging process is finished.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electron Dropout Events and Flux Enhancements Associated With Geomagnetic Storms Observed by PROBA-V/Energetic Particle Telescope From 2013 to 2019

Electron flux variations for E > 500 keV during geomagnetic storms are investigated using the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT). This detector launched in May 2013 on board the satellite PROBA-V at an altitude of 820 km was designed to provide uncontaminated spectra of electrons, protons, and alpha particles. Electron flux dropout events are observed during the main phase of each storm and even during substorms: a rapid reduction of the electron flux is noted throughout the outer electron radiation belt at all energies above about 0.5 MeV on timescales of a few hours. The electron spectrograms measured by the EPT between 2013 and 2019 show that after each geomagnetic storm, dropout events are followed by a flux enhancement starting first at low L values, and reaching the slot or even the inner belt for the strongest storms. We determine the link between Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) and the minimum value of the L-shell where the dropouts deplete the outer belt, as well as the nonlinear relation between Dst and the minimum L-shell where the flux penetrates in the slot region or even the inner belt during the storms. Dropouts appear at all energies measured by EPT and penetrate down to $\textit{L}$~3.5 for the strongest events. Dropouts are observed at Low Earth Orbit each time Dst has an inverted peak < –40 nT. Flux enhancements appear at lower L only for big storm events with Dst < –50 nT. They penetrate down to an impenetrable barrier with a minimum L-shell related to Dst and to the energy. For E > 1 MeV, this limit is also linked to the plasmapause position.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geomagnetic Storm Effects on Ionospheric Irregularities: Insights from SuperDARN, Madrigal GPS TEC, and ISR Data [Slides]

Geomagnetic disturbances trigger an influx of electrons from the magnetosphere, leading to an increase electron density (even in lower altitudes), amplified ionospheric currents, and subsequently, increased conductance. A surge in the AE index, indicating heightened auroral currents, correlates with a rise in precipitated charged particles, including electrons, into the polar ionosphere. This correlation is detectable through increased parameter values measured by SuperDARN. The downward flow of electron density towards lower altitudes, as observed in PFISR data, potentially obstructs the transmission frequency from radar stations passing through the PFISR location (just like we saw in the KOD station). During the geomagnetic storm, there is increased backscatter power (increased amount of ionospheric irregularities), and the plasma flow draws closer to the radar, suggesting a possible southward shift in the auroral oval as a result of the heightened auroral activity. Increased geomagnetic activity correlates with an elevation in average TEC and induces the occurrence of SED (Storm Enhanced Density).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The High Latitude Ionospheric Response to the Major May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm: A Synoptic View

Abstract The high latitude ionospheric evolution of the May 10‐11, 2024, geomagnetic storm is investigated in terms of Total Electron Content and contextualized with Incoherent Scatter Radar and ionosonde observations. Substantial plasma lifting is observed within the initial Storm Enhanced Density plume with ionospheric peak heights increasing by 150–300 km, reaching levels of up to 630 km. Scintillation is observed within the cusp during the initial expansion phase of the storm, spreading across the auroral oval thereafter. Patch transport into the polar cap produces broad regions of scintillation that are rapidly cleared from the region after a strong Interplanetary Magnetic Field reversal at 2230UT. Strong heating and composition changes result in the complete absence of the F2‐layer on the eleventh, suffocating high latitude convection from dense plasma necessary for Tongue of Ionization and patch formation, ultimately resulting in a suppression of polar cap scintillation on the eleventh.

Themens, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nonlinearity in chorus waves during a geomagnetic storm on 1 November 2012

In this study, we investigate the possibility of nonlinearity in chorus waves during a geomagnetic storm on 1 November 2012. The data we use were measured by the Van Allen Probe B. Wave data and plasma sheet electron data are analyzed. Chorus waves were frequently measured in the morning side during the main phase of this storm. Large–amplitude chorus waves were seen of the order of ~0.6 nT and >7 mV/m, which are similar to or larger than the typical ULF waves. The waves quite often consist of rising tones during the burst sampling. Since the rising tone is known as a signature of nonlinearity, a large portion of the waves are regarded as nonlinear at least during the burst sampling periods. These results underline the importance of nonlinearity in the dynamics of chorus waves. We further compare the measurement and the nonlinear theories, based on the inhomogeneity ratio, our own calculation derived from the field equation and the backward wave oscillator model. The wave quantities examined are frequency, amplitude, frequency drift rate, and duration. Furthermore, this type of study is useful to more deeply understand wave-particle interactions and hence may lead to predicting the generation and loss of radiation belt electrons in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Ring current electron dynamics during geomagnetic storms based on the Van Allen Probes measurements: Ring Current Electrons

Based on comprehensive measurements from Helium, Oxygen, Proton, and Electron Mass Spectrometer Ion Spectrometer, Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope, and Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment instruments on the Van Allen Probes, comparative studies of ring current electrons and ions are performed and the role of energetic electrons in the ring current dynamics is investigated. The deep injections of tens to hundreds of keV electrons and tens of keV protons into the inner magnetosphere occur frequently; after the injections the electrons decay slowly in the inner belt but protons in the low L region decay very fast. Intriguing similarities between lower energy protons and higher-energy electrons are also found. The evolution of ring current electron and ion energy densities and energy content are examined in detail during two geomagnetic storms, one moderate and one intense. Here, the results show that the contribution of ring current electrons to the ring current energy content is much smaller than that of ring current ions (up to ~12% for the moderate storm and ~7% for the intense storm), and <35 keV electrons dominate the ring current electron energy content at the storm main phases. Though the electron energy content is usually much smaller than that of ions, the enhancement of ring current electron energy content during the moderate storm can get to ~30% of that of ring current ions, indicating a more dynamic feature of ring current electrons and important role of electrons in the ring current buildup. Lastly, the ring current electron energy density is also shown to be higher at midnight and dawn while lower at noon and dusk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

On the Relative Strength of Electric and Magnetic ULF Wave Radial Diffusion During the March 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

In this paper, we study electron radial diffusion coefficients derived from Pc4-Pc5 ultralow frequency (ULF) wave power during the intense geomagnetic storm on 17–18 March 2015. During this storm the population of highly relativistic electrons was depleted within 2 hr of the storm commencement. This radial diffusion, depending upon the availability of source populations, can cause outward radial diffusion of particles and their loss to the magnetosheath, or inward transport and acceleration. Analysis of electromagnetic field measurements from Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES), Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) satellite, and ground-based magnetometers shows that the main phase storm-specific radial diffusion coefficients do not correspond to statistical estimates. Specifically, during the main phase, the electric diffusion ($D^{E}_{LL}$) is reduced, and the magnetic diffusion ($D^{B}_{LL}$) is increased, compared to empirical models based on Kp . Contrary to prior results, the main phase magnetic radial diffusion cannot be neglected. The largest discrepancies, and periods of dominance of $D^{B}_{LL}$ over $D^{E}_{LL}$, occur during intervals of strongly southward IMF. However, during storm recovery, both magnetic and electric diffusion rates are consistent with empirical estimates. Here, we further verify observationally, for the first time, an energy coherence for both $D^{B}_{LL}$ and $D^{E}_{LL}$ where diffusion coefficients do not depend on energy. We show that, at least for this storm, properly characterizing main phase radial diffusion, potentially associated with enhanced ULF wave magnetopause shadowing losses, cannot be done with standard empirical models. Modifications, associated especially with southward IMF, which enhance the effects of $D^{B}_{LL}$ and introduce larger main phase outward transport losses, are needed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Temporal evolution of ion spectral structures during a geomagnetic storm: Observations and modeling

Using the Van Allen Probes/Helium, Oxygen, Proton, and Electron (HOPE) mass spectrometer, we perform a case study of the temporal evolution of ion spectral structures observed in the energy range of 1- ~50 keV throughout the geomagnetic storm of 2 October 2013. The ion spectral features are observed near the inner edge of the plasma sheet and are signatures of fresh transport from the plasma sheet into the inner magnetosphere. We find that the characteristics of the ion structures are determined by the intensity of the convection electric field. Prior to the beginning of the storm, the plasma sheet inner edge exhibits narrow nose spectral structures that vary little in energy across L values. Ion access to the inner magnetosphere during these times is limited to the nose energy bands. As convection is enhanced and large amounts of plasma are injected from the plasma sheet during the main phase of the storm, ion access occurs at a wide energy range, as no nose structures are observed. Here, as the magnetosphere recovers from the storm, single noses and then multiple noses are observed once again. Lastly, we use a model of ion drift and losses due to charge exchange to simulate the ion spectra and gain insight into the main observed features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of the 8–10 March 2012 Geomagnetic Storm on Inner Zone Protons as Measured by Van Allen Probes

The Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope (REPT) instrument on the Van Allen Probes observed a double-peaked inner zone proton population throughout the 7 year lifetime of the mission. M. Hudson et al. (2023) showed that a strong SEP event accompanied by a CME-shock in early March 2012 provided the Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) source for the higher L trapped proton population, which then diffused radially inward to be observed by REPT at L = 2. The study followed trajectories of SEP protons launched isotropically from a sphere at 7 Re for 2.5 hr in fields calculated by the LFM-RCM global MHD model, which includes electric fields needed to model the transport and trapping of the protons by the shock, and then a radial diffusion simulation was run for 2 years using the result from the test-particle simulation as the initial condition. The simulation result was compared with REPT measurement in November 2013 and showed reasonable agreement. However, the simulation overestimated the Phase Space Density by a factor of four due to lack of field line curvature scattering during the storm in the model. In this study, a test-particle simulation is performed for 2 days following the injection and trapping of protons in March 2012 using TS05 fields to simulate the field line curvature scattering of the trapped SEP due to the buildup of the ring current during the geomagnetic storm. The resulting sample distribution was then weighted using the flux at the end of the two-hour MHD-test particle simulation. A radial diffusion simulation is then run using the initial profile that included the loss effect, with improved comparison with REPT measurements after 2 years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Ionospheric Impact of an ICME-Driven Sheath Region Over Indian and American Sectors in the Absence of a Typical Geomagnetic Storm

On 13 April 2013, the ACE spacecraft detected arrival of an interplanetary shock at 2250 UT, which is followed by the passage of the sheath region of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) for a prolonged (18-hr) period. The polarity of interplanetary magnetic field Bz was northward inside the magnetic cloud region of the ICME. The ring current (SYM-H) index did not go below -7 nT during this event suggesting the absence of a typical geomagnetic storm. In this paper, the responses of the global ionospheric electric field associated with the passage of the ICME sheath region have been investigated using incoherent scatter radar measurements of Jicamarca and Arecibo (postmidnight sector) along with the variations of equatorial electrojet strength over India (day sector). It is found that westward and eastward prompt penetration (PP) electric fields affected ionosphere over Jicamarca/Arecibo and Indian sectors, respectively, during 0545–0800 UT. The polarities of the PP electric field perturbations over the day/night sectors are consistent with model predictions. In fact, DP2-type electric field perturbations with ~40-min periodicity are found to affect the ionosphere over both the sectors for about 2.25 hr during the passage of the ICME sheath region. Finally, this result shows that SYM-H index may not capture the full geoeffectivenss of the ICME sheath-driven storms and suggests that the PP electric field perturbations should be evaluated for geoeffectiveness of ICME when the polarity of interplanetary magnetic field Bz is northward inside the magnetic cloud region of the ICME.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Global Statistical Response of the Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms

Using the total radiation belt electron content calculated from Van Allen Probe phase space density, the time-dependent and global response of the outer radiation belt during storms is statistically studied. Using phase space density reduces the impacts of adiabatic changes in the main phase, allowing a separation of adiabatic and nonadiabatic effects and revealing a clear modality and repeatable sequence of events in storm time radiation belt electron dynamics. This sequence exhibits an important first adiabatic invariant (μ)-dependent behavior in the seed (150 MeV/G), relativistic (1,000 MeV/G), and ultrarelativistic (4,000 MeV/G) populations. The outer radiation belt statistically shows an initial phase dominated by loss followed by a second phase of rapid acceleration, while the seed population shows little loss and immediate enhancement. Lastly, the time sequence of the transition to the acceleration is also strongly μ dependent and occurs at low μ first, appearing to be repeatable from storm to storm.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The latitudinal variation of geoelectromagnetic disturbances during large ( Dst ≤ ₋100 nT) geomagnetic storms

Geoelectromagnetic disturbances (GMDs) are an important consequence of space weather that can directly impact many types of terrestrial infrastructure. In this paper, we analyze 30 years of SuperMAG magnetometer data from the range of magnetic latitudes 20°≤λ≤75° to derive characteristic latitudinal profiles for median GMD amplitudes. Based on this data, we obtain a parameterization of these latitudinal profiles of different types of GMDs, providing an analytical fit with Dst-dependent parameters. Finally, we also obtain probabilistic estimates for the magnitudes of “100 year” GMDs, finding that $\dot{_B}$ = 6.9 (3.60–12.9) nT/s should be expected at 45°≤λ< 50°, exceeding the 5 nT/s threshold for dangerous inductive heating.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗