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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Discovery: Strategic Foresight – Helping Aviation Find Problems Worth Solving

Strategic foresight is used in the early stages of the CAS (Convergent Aeronautics Solutions) process. We discover trends, needs, and capabilities from interviews with diverse groups of people, data analytics tools, and from publications. These are analyzed in the context of future scenarios to uncover problem areas that have the highest possible impact on the broadest number of people while ensuring that we are prepared for the future.

Foresight Strategy Complex wicked↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Discovery: Strategic Foresight – Helping Aviation Find Problems Worth Solving

Foresight↗

NASA NTRS2015

Space Biotech: Hindsight, Insight, Foresight

Over the past forty years, microgravity has inspired and enabled applications in a wide range of sectors including medicine, materials, computers, communications, and national defense. Trends show that demand for high-tech solutions is increasing in these sectors, solutions that require higher resolution, greater precision, novel materials, innovative processes, and more sophisticated tools. These are areas where microgravity can offer unique capabilities for innovation. The Emerging Space Office (ESO) has engaged in multiple studies over the past year that have found that microgravity RD is one of the most promising technology areas for contributing to economic growth and to NASAs mission. The focus of these studies was on terrestrial markets rather than NASA applications, applied research rather than basic research, and commercial rather than academic investigators. There have been more success stories than are generally appreciated and there are significant areas of promising future potential. Many of the problems that have limited commercial microgravity development in the past are being solved. Microgravity research and development (RD) requires iteration and learning, as rapidly as possible. New technologies enable high throughput and rapid data collection in increasingly small payloads. The International Space Station is in orbit and provides a laboratory that is available 247 at least until 2024. Frequent flights by commercial space providers to and from the ISS now enable the fast learning cycles needed by high-tech industries. Launch costs are decreasing and the ability to return payloads to Earth is increasing. New commercial space laboratories, such as those being developed by SpaceX and Bigelow Aerospace, are in the final stages of development and testing. This ecosystem for microgravity RD has never been available before. These are game-changer conditions for attracting high-tech industries to space for terrestrial, as well as NASA, applications. However, few know that these capabilities are available or how to use them. In aggregate, the potential value for new applications from microgravity RD over the next ten years could add billions of dollars per year in terrestrial applications to the future economy, create new jobs, and generate a wide range of public benefits in medical advances, while broadening the customer base for the emerging space industry.

biotech↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and AgMIP Frameworks for Foresight

Agricultural systems are currently undergoing rapid shifts owing to socioeconomic development, technological change, population growth, economic opportunity, evolving demand for commodities, and the need for sustainability amid global environmental change. It is not sufficient to maintain current harvest levels; rather, there is a need to rapidly increase production in light of a population growing to nearly 10 billion by mid-century and to more than 11 billion by 2100 (FAO, 2016; UN, 2016; Popkin et al., 2012). Current and future agricultural systems are additionally burdened by human-caused climate change, the result of accumulating greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, ecological destruction, and land use changes that have altered the chemical composition of Earth’s atmosphere and trapped energy in the Earth system (IPCC, 2013; Porter et al., 2014). This increased energy has already raised average surface temperatures by approximately 1 degree Centigrade (GISTEMP Team, 2017; Hansen et al., 2010), leading early on to the term “global warming,” but this phenomenon is now more accurately referred to as “climate change” because it also modifies atmospheric circulation, adjusts regional and seasonal precipitation patterns, and shifts the distribution and characteristics of extreme events (Bindoff et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013). Food and health systems face increasing risk owing to progressive climate change now manifesting itself as more frequent, severe extreme weather events—heat waves, droughts, and floods (IPCC, 2013). Often without warning, weather-related shocks can have catastrophic and reverberating impacts on the increasingly exposed global food system—through production, processing, distribution, retail, disposal, and waste. Simultaneously, malnutrition and ill health are arising from lack of access to nutritious food, exacerbated in crises such as food price spikes or shortages. For some countries, particularly import-dependent low-income countries, weather shocks and price spikes can lead to social unrest, famine, and migration.

Ruane, Alex C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Strategy for Technology Development through Smart Innovation and Foresight

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Erica Rodgers↗

NASA NTRS2021

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy and advocacy at the agency, enabling future missions and advancing U.S. economic competitiveness. Specifically, OCT coordinates and uses inputs from abroad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OCT develops the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OCT has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OCT as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗

NASA NTRS2023

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (recently separated into the new Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate and Space Operations Mission Directorate). The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) provides strategic advice, supported by independent assessments and rigorous analysis, to inform NASA senior leadership on key areas to align mission and agency-level activities. OTPS serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy at the agency to enable future missions. Specifically, OTPS coordinates and uses inputs from a broad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OTPS develops and maintains the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OTPS has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OTPS as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗

NASA NTRS2003

Government and Industry Issues for Expanding Commercial Markets into Space

In 2002, the Foresight and Governance Project at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C, organized a "Global Foresight Workshop" in partnership with NASA and in cooperation with other Federal Agencies to provide integrated consideration of broad challenges for the 2lst century. Many long-range goals for the nation were discussed and selected, among them were space related goals of interest to NASA. During much of the Agency's history, NASA advanced studies have focused consistently on the challenges of science-driven space exploration and operations. However, workshop findings indicate little interest in these goals unless they can also solve national and global issues. Many technologies and space development studies indicate great potential to enable new, important commercial markets in space that could address the many global challenges facing America in this century. But communication of these ideas are lacking. In conclusion, it appears that the commercial development of space could have broad implications on many impending problems, including energy resources, environmental impact, and climate changes. The challenge will be to develop a consistent coordinated effort among the many industries and Agencies that should be involved in opening this new frontier for these new commercial markets.

Smitherman, David V., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Differences Between ERBE and CERES Tropical Means Fluxes: ENSO, Climate Change of Calibration?

Verner E. Soumi was the father of radiation budget measurements from space. He directed the team at the University of Wisconsin that developed the first radiation budget measurements on the Iota (Explorer VII) coverage) spacecraft in 1959. The first data published was from hand calculations of night-time long-wave fluxes, with absolute accuracy estimated as better than 10 percent, and the data shown as hand drawn maps with lines of equal "long-wave radiation loss, in Langleys per minute X 10(exp -3) (isolangleys)". The first comparisons of the new radiation data with nephanalyses showed that clouds dominated the radiation patterns. Soumi immediately proposed using the radiation fields to help understand the atmospheric heat sources necessary to drive the atmospheric circulation. This early work already pointed to the relationship between the outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere and the vertical flux divergence of infrared radiation within the atmosphere. In the next 30 years, global satellite observations of the radiation balance of the planet have advanced both in accuracy, stability, and in their ability to address cause and effect in the climate system. The purpose of the present paper is to examine early results of the new Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data on Tropical Rainfall Measuring System (TRMM) which started data collection in January, 1998. CERES is a direct descendant of the legacy of Soumi's foresight on understanding the global energetics using satellite observations of broadband radiation.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Fuzzy Control Hardware for Segmented Mirror Phasing Algorithm

This paper presents a possible implementation of a control model developed to phase a system of segmented mirrors, with a PAMELA configuration, using analog fuzzy hardware. Presently, the model is designed for piston control only, but with the foresight that the parameters of tip and tilt will be integrated eventually. The proposed controller uses analog circuits to exhibit a voltage-mode singleton fuzzifier, a mixed-mode inference engine, and a current-mode defuzzifier. The inference engine exhibits multiplication circuits that perform the algebraic product composition through the use of operational transconductance amplifiers rather than the typical min-max circuits. Additionally, the knowledge base, containing exemplar data gained a priori through simulation, interacts via a digital interface.

Roth, Elizabeth↗

NASA NTRS2003

Wilbur and Orville Wright: A Reissue of a Chronology Commemorating the Hundredth Anniversary of the Birth of Orville Wright, August 19, 1871

During the year 2003, hundreds of events will mark the one-hundredth anniversary of the Wright brothers historic first flights at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. The centennial year will witness exhibitions, lectures, television documentaries, films, air shows, flight recreations of Wright aircraft, the issuing of postage stamps and medals, the publication of dozens of new books and articles, and numerous other commemorative activities. One of these events, although not likely to make the evening news, is among the most important of all in terms of a lasting contribution to the observance of this ultimate aviation milestone: the reprinting of Arthur G. Renstrom WIlbur & Orville Wrght: A Chronology Commemorating the Hundredth Anniversary of the Birth of Orville Wright, August 19, 1871. Since its appearance in 1975, Wilbur end Orville Wright: A Chronology has become indispensable to students and authors concerned with the life and work of the famous brothers. No doubt every book on the subject published in the last quarter century, including three of my own, was written with this treasure close at hand. This volume is far more than a simple compilation of dates and facts. Renstrom was a master reference librarian and bibliographer with a passion for aviation and the Wright brothers. He brought his considerable research skills to bear on the topic, and the result is a richly detailed, ever-informative, often entertaining walk through the lives and achievements of these two extraordinary individuals. Renstrom was not content to offer a date with a one-line tidbit. His entries are brimming with information. This is a highly readable reference work that, believe it or not, can be enjoyably read from cover to cover. The project was clearly a labor of love by a talented professional. During most of the last twenty years, I have been privileged to be the curator of the 1903 Wright Flyer at the Smithsonian Institution s National Air and Space Museum. The position brings a steady stream of inquiries about the Wright airplane and the endlessly fascinating brothers who created it. I do not know how I would have done this job without Renstrom s superb volume on my bookshelf. It is the first place I go to check anything on the Wright brothers, and I typically find what I am looking for in its pages. Arthur Renstrom also published two other classic reference works on the Wright brothers: Wilbur & Orville Wright: A Bibliography Commemorating the Hundredth Anniversary of the Birth of Wilbur Wright, April 16, 1867, in 1968 (an updated revision was published by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in 2002) and Wilbur & Orville Wright, Pictorial Materials: A Documentary Guide in 1982, completing a series of research tools for which there are few peers on any subject. He was also part of the team that produced the landmark two-volume compilation of the Wrights letters, notebooks, and diaries in 1953, The Papers of Wilbur and Orville Wright, edited by Marvin W. McFarland. Renstrom s contribution to the documentation and preservation of the Wright story is a lasting legacy that will serve researchers, students, and general enthusiasts for generations to come. In this busy, high-profile anniversary year, the reprinting of a nearly thirty-year-old reference book may seem a mundane and quiet contribution to the celebration surrounding the Wright brothers world-changing achievement, but it is perhaps one of the most important. The U.S. Centennial of Flight Commission and NASA are to be commended for their foresight.

Renstrom, Arthur George↗

NASA NTRS2005

Differences between ERBE and CERES Tropical Mean Fluxes: ENSO, Climate Change or Calibration?

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Commercial-Off-The-Shelf Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) Flow-Measurement Probes Fabricated And Assembled

As an alternative to conventional tubing instrumentation for measuring airflow, designers and technicians at the NASA Glenn Research Center have been fabricating packaging components and assembling a set of unique probes using commercial-off-the-shelf microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) integrated circuits (computer chips). Using MEMS as an alternative has some compelling advantages over standard measurement devices. Sensor technologies have matured through high-production usage in industries such as automotive and aircraft manufacturers. Currently, MEMS are the choice in applications such as tire pressure monitors, altimeters, pneumatic controls, cable leak detectors, and consumer appliances. Conventional instrumentation uses tubing buried in the model aerodynamic surfaces or wind tunnel walls. The measurements are made when pressure is introduced at the tube opening. The pressure then must travel the tubing for lengths ranging from 20 to hundreds of feet before reaching an electronic signal conditioner. This condition causes a considerable amount of damping and requires measurements to be made only after the test rig has reached steady-state operation. The electronic MEMS pressure sensor is able to take readings continuously under dynamic states in nearly real time. The use of stainless steel tubing for pressure measurements requires many tubes to be cleaned, cut to length, carefully installed, and delicately deburred and spliced for use. A cluster of a few hundred 1/16-in.- (0.0625-in.-) diameter tubes (not uncommon in research testing facilities) can be several inches in diameter and may weigh enough to require two men to handle. Replacing hard tubing with electronic chips can eliminate much of the bulk. Each sensor would fit on the tip of the 1/16-in. tubing with room to spare. The P592 piezoresistive silicon pressure sensor (Lucas NovaSensor, Fremont, CA) was chosen for this project because of its cost, availability, and tolerance to extreme ambient conditions. The chip is 1 mm square by 0.6 mm thick (0.039 by 0.023 in.) with 0.12-mm (0.005-in.) wire connection tabs. Three MEMS chips were used to build the first type of flow-angularity probe. This MEMS probe will be demonstrated as an alternative to a standard tube type "Cobra Probe" now used routinely in wind tunnel and aeronautical hardware applications. The response time and accuracy would allow the probe to be translated on an actuator across a flow field, yielding precision dynamic measurements not possible with conventional instrumentation. The low profile, the minimal power requirement, the rugged construction, and the moderate cost all contribute to making MEMS sensors the enticing choice instrument in future research measurement needs. The MEMS probe efforts are a continuation of work initiated by Brian Willis, without whose foresight and efforts this project would never have been realized. This task was funded through cooperation with the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Redding, Chip↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lighting the Way for Quicker, Safer Healing

Who's to say that a little light can t go a long way? Tiny light-emitting diode (LED) chips used to grow plants in space are lighting the way for cancer treatment, wound healing, and chronic pain alleviation on Earth. In 1993, Quantum Devices, Inc. (QDI), of Barneveld, Wisconsin, began developing the HEALS (High Emissivity Aluminiferous Light-emitting Substrate) technology to provide high-intensity, solid-state LED lighting systems for NASA Space Shuttle plant growth experiments. The company evolved out of cooperative efforts with the Wisconsin Center for Space Automation and Robotics (WCSAR) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison a NASA center for the Commercial Development of Space. Ronald W. Ignatius, QDI s president and chairman, represented one of WCSAR s industrial partners at the time. WCSAR was conducting research on light sources for promoting food growth within closed environments where humans would be present for a long duration, such as the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. With the support of WCSAR, Ignatius experimented with LEDs, which provide high-energy efficiency and virtually no heat, despite releasing waves of light 10 times brighter than the Sun. Ignatius admits that some scientists involved in the project were skeptical at first, thinking that the idea of using LEDs to promote plant growth was far-fetched. The experiments, however, demonstrated that red LED wavelengths could boost the energy metabolism of cells to advance plant growth and photosynthesis. This finding prompted Ignatius to develop a line of LED products that emit the exact wavelength of light that plants use in photosynthesis. Our company gives credit to Dr. Ray Bula, the director of WCSAR, for having the foresight to go against the prevailing dogma of the time and design the first plant experiment using monochromatic light to grow lettuce plants, Ignatius proclaims. In 1989, Ignatius formed QDI to bring the salt grain-sized LEDs to market, and in October 1995, the light sources made their Space Shuttle flight debut on the second U.S. Microgravity Laboratory Spacelab mission (STS-73, Columbia)

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2011

Scotty, I Need More Power - The Fission System Gateway to Abundant Power for Exploration

In planning and in crisis, electrical power has been a key consideration when humans venture into space. Since the 1950's, nuclear fission (splitting of atoms) power has been a logical alternative in both fact and fiction, due to its ability to provide abundant power with high energy density, reliability, and immunity to severe environments. Bringing space fission power to a state of readiness for exploration has depended on clearing the hurdle of technology readiness demonstration. Due to the happy coincidence of heritage from prior space fission development efforts such as the Prometheus program, foresight from NASA's Exploration Mission Systems Directorate in the mid-2000's, and relative budget stability through the late 2000's, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Department of Energy (DOE), with their industry partners, are poised to push through to this objective. Hardware for a 12 kWe non-nuclear Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit is being fabricated now on a schedule that will enable a low-cost demonstration of technology readiness in the mid-2010s, with testing beginning as early as 2012. With space fission power system technology demonstrated, exploration mission planners will have the flexibility to respond to a broad variety of missions and will be able to provide abundant power so that future explorers will, in planning or crisis, have the power they need when they most need it.

Palac, Donald T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

System Safety and the Unintended Consequence

The analysis and identification of risks often result in design changes or modification of operational steps. This paper identifies the potential of unintended consequences as an over-looked result of these changes. Examples of societal changes such as prohibition, regulatory changes including mandating lifeboats on passenger ships, and engineering proposals or design changes to automobiles and spaceflight hardware are used to demonstrate that the System Safety Engineer must be cognizant of the potential for unintended consequences as a result of an analysis. Conclusions of the report indicate the need for additional foresight and consideration of the potential effects of analysis-driven design, processing changes, and/or operational modifications.

Watson, Clifford↗

NASA NTRS2012

Bridging the Gap: Use of Spaceflight Technologies for Earth-Based Problems

Spaceflight is colloquially deemed, the final frontier, or the last area which humans have not yet explored in great depth. While this is true, there are still many regions on Earth that remain isolated from the urban, socially and electronically connected world. Because travelling to space requires a great deal of foresight, engineers are required to think creatively in order to invent technologies that are durable enough to withstand the rigors of the unique and often treacherous environment of outer space. The innovations that are a result of spaceflight designs can often be applied to life on Earth, particularly in the rural, isolated communities found throughout the world. The NASA Human Health and Performance Center (NHHPC) is a collaborative, virtual forum that connects businesses, non-profit organizations, academia, and government agencies to allow for better distribution of ideas and technology between these entities (http://www.nasa.gov/offices/NHHPC). There are many technologies that have been developed for spaceflight that can be readily applied to rural communities on Earth. For example, water filtration systems designed for spaceflight must be robust and easily repaired; therefore, a system with these qualifications may be used in rural areas on Earth. This particular initiative seeks to connect established, non-profit organizations working in isolated communities throughout the world with NASA technologies devised for spaceflight. These technologies could include water purification systems, solar power generators, or telemedicine techniques. Applying innovative, spaceflight technologies to isolated communities on Earth provides greater benefits from the same research dollars, thus fulfilling the Space Life Science motto at Johnson Space Center: Exploring Space and Enhancing Life. This paper will discuss this NHHPC global outreach initiative and give examples based on the recent work of the organization.

Brinley, Alaina↗

NASA NTRS2013

Small Launch Vehicle Trade Space Definition: Development of a Zero Level Mass Estimation Tool with Trajectory Validation

Recent high level interest in the capability of small launch vehicles has placed significant demand on determining the trade space these vehicles occupy. This has led to the development of a zero level analysis tool that can quickly determine the minimum expected vehicle gross liftoff weight (GLOW) in terms of vehicle stage specific impulse (Isp) and propellant mass fraction (pmf) for any given payload value. Utilizing an extensive background in Earth to orbit trajectory experience a total necessary delta v the vehicle must achieve can be estimated including relevant loss terms. This foresight into expected losses allows for more specific assumptions relating to the initial estimates of thrust to weight values for each stage. This tool was further validated against a trajectory model, in this case the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), to determine if the initial sizing delta v was adequate to meet payload expectations. Presented here is a description of how the tool is setup and the approach the analyst must take when using the tool. Also, expected outputs which are dependent on the type of small launch vehicle being sized will be displayed. The method of validation will be discussed as well as where the sizing tool fits into the vehicle design process.

Waters, Eric D.↗