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Methodology and Application of Physical Security Effectiveness Based on Dynamic Force-on-Force Modeling

This report describes the research and development being performed at INL towards a dynamic modeling and simulation framework to enable physical security optimization at commercial nuclear power plants. The framework is based on the dynamic modeling tool EMRALD and is demonstrated for applications that can result in physical security optimization. Two main applications are presented: 1. Integrating FLEX portable equipment performance with FOF models of a plant’s physical security posture, and 2. Location optimization of bullet resistant enclosure. The generic framework for modeling FLEX portable equipment is described in detail, followed by a case study modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical PWR. Two distinct FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial FOF tool, AVERT, are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. Thermal-hydraulic analysis of FLEX performance is performed in RELAP5 and integrated with the EMRALD simulations to provide more realistic timelines in the models. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security. The objective of location optimization of BRE is to determine the best location in the plant for a new BRE being planned by the plant to enhance their physical security effectiveness. The plant physical security FOF model is integrated with EMRALD that performs Monte Carlo simulation to run different attack scenarios and a discrete set of potential BRE locations. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the most effective location for the BRE. The optimization approach can be extended to wide applications such as location optimization of remotely operated weapons and other strategic fixed assets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The HectoMAP Cluster Survey: Spectroscopically Identified Clusters and their Brightest Cluster Galaxies (BCGs)

We apply a friends-of-friends (FoF) algorithm to identify galaxy clusters and we use the catalog to explore the evolutionary synergy between brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) and their host clusters. We base the cluster catalog on the dense HectoMAP redshift survey (2000 redshifts deg -2 ). The HectoMAP FoF catalog includes 346 clusters with 10 or more spectroscopic members within the range 0.05 < z < 0.55 and with a median z = 0.29. We list these clusters and their members. We also include central velocity dispersions (σ*, BCG ) for the FoF cluster BCGs, a distinctive feature of the HectoMAP FoF catalog. HectoMAP clusters with higher galaxy number density (80 systems) are all genuine clusters with a strong concentration and a prominent BCG in Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam images. The phase-space diagrams show the expected elongation along the line of sight. Lower-density systems include some low reliability systems. We establish a connection between BCGs and their host clusters by demonstrating that σ*, BCG /σ cl decreases as a function of cluster velocity dispersion (σ cl ), in contrast, numerical simulations predict a constant σ*, BCG /σ cl . Sets of clusters at two different redshifts show that BCG evolution in massive systems is slow over the redshift range z < 0.4. The data strongly suggest that minor mergers may play an important role in BCG evolution in clusters with σ cl ≳ 300 km s -1 . For lower mass systems (σ cl < 300 km s -1 ), major mergers may play a significant role. The coordinated evolution of BCGs and their host clusters provides an interesting test of simulations in high-density regions of the universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Physical Security of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize the security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD is leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions, including dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios are modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures are modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Testing dark matter halo properties using self-similarity

ABSTRACT We use self-similarity in N-body simulations of scale-free models to test for resolution dependence in the mass function and two-point correlation functions of dark matter haloes. We use 10243 particle simulations performed with abacus , and compare results obtained with two halo finders: friends-of-friends (fof ), and rockstar . The fof mass functions show a systematic deviation from self-similarity which is explained by resolution dependence of the fof mass assignment previously reported in the literature. Weak evidence for convergence is observed only starting from haloes of several thousand particles, and mass functions are overestimated by at least as much as $20-25{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for haloes of 50 particles. The mass function of the default rockstar halo catalogue (with bound virial spherical overdensity mass), on the other hand, shows good convergence of the order of 50 to 100 particles per halo, with no detectable evidence at the few percent level of any systematic dependence for larger particle number. Tests show that the mass unbinding procedure in rockstar is the key factor in obtaining this much improved resolution. Applying the same analysis to the halo–halo two point correlation function, we find again strong evidence for convergence only for rockstar haloes, at separations sufficiently large so that haloes do not overlap. At these separations, we can exclude dependence on resolution at the $5-10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ level once haloes have of the order of 50 to 100 particles. At smaller separations results are not converged even at significantly larger particle number, and bigger simulations would be required to establish the resolution required for convergence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Optimization of Physical Security Posture of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes an ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD was leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions including the dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios were modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION OF PHYSICAL SECURITY EFFECTIVENESS BASED ON DYNAMIC FORCE-ON-FORCE MODELING

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants (NPPs). It reviews the conservatisms in conventional physical security posture and regulations. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). The dynamic assessment methodology leverages EMRALD to process results of force-on-force (FOF) simulations and crediting safety mitigation actions from probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models as well as diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) mitigation strategies. Timing information from these simulations are compared against the available time to perform mitigations obtained from Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5) simulations. To illustrate the methodology, a station blackout (SBO) attack scenario was modeled in commercially available FOF simulation tools. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes and as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD, and were dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. RELAP5 simulations incorporating human and hardware uncertainties were performed to estimate the distribution of time-to-core damage. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, plant mitigation strategies provide significantly high-likelihood of preventing radiological release. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Water-Soluble Flexible Organic Frameworks That Include and Deliver Proteins

Four water-soluble hydrazone-based three-dimensional (3D) flexible organic frameworks FOF-1-4 have been synthesized from a semirigid tetracationic tetraaldehyde and four flexible dihydrazides. 1 H NMR spectroscopy indicated the quantitative formation of FOF-1-4 in D 2 O, while dynamic light scattering experiments revealed that, depending on the concentration, these porous frameworks display hydrodynamic diameters ranging from 50 to 120 nm. The porosity of the frameworks is confirmed by ethanol vapor adsorption experiments of the solid samples as well as the high loading capacity for a 2.3 nm porphyrin guest in water. The new water-soluble frameworks exhibit low cytotoxicity and form inherent pores with diameters of 5.3 or 6.7 nm, allowing rapid inclusion of proteins such as bovine serum albumin and green and orange fluorescent proteins, and efficient delivery of the proteins into normal and cancer cells. Flow cytometric analysis reveals percentages of the delivered cells up to 99.8%.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High mass and halo resolution from fast low resolution simulations

Generating mocks for future sky surveys requires large volumes and high resolutions, which is computationally expensive even for fast simulations. Here we try to develop numerical schemes to calibrate various halo and matter statistics in fast low resolution simulations compared to high resolution N-body and hydrodynamic simulations. For the halos, we improve the initial condition resolution and develop a halo finder "relaxed-FoF", where we allow different linking lengths for different halo mass and velocity dispersions. We show that our relaxed-FoF halo finder improves the common statistics, such as halo bias, halo mass function, halo auto power spectrum, cross correlation coefficient with the reference halo catalog, and halo-matter cross power spectrum. We also calibrate small-scale velocities of small halos to improve the power spectrum in redshift space. For the matter statistics, we incorporate the potential gradient descent (PGD) method into fast simulations to improve the matter distribution at nonlinear scales. By building a lightcone output, we show that the PGD method significantly improves the weak lensing convergence tomographic power spectrum. With these improvements FastPM is comparable to the high resolution full N-body simulation of the same mass resolution, with two orders of magnitude fewer time steps. These techniques can be used to improve the halo and matter statistics of FastPM simulations for mock catalogs of future surveys such as DESI and LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

sOPTICS: a modified density-based algorithm for identifying galaxy groups/clusters and brightest cluster galaxies

A direct approach to studying the galaxy–halo connection is to analyse groups and clusters of galaxies that trace the underlying dark matter haloes, emphasizing the importance of identifying galaxy clusters and their associated brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). In this work, we test and propose a robust density-based clustering algorithm that outperforms the traditional Friends-of-Friends (FoF) algorithm in the currently available galaxy group/cluster catalogues. Our new approach is a modified version of the Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm, which accounts for line-of-sight positional uncertainties due to redshift space distortions by incorporating a scaling factor, and is thereby referred to as sOPTICS. When tested on both a galaxy group catalogue based on semi-analytic galaxy formation simulations and observational data, our algorithm demonstrated robustness to outliers and relative insensitivity to hyperparameter choices. In total, we compared the results of eight clustering algorithms. The proposed density-based clustering method, sOPTICS, outperforms FoF in accurately identifying giant galaxy clusters and their associated BCGs in various environments with higher purity and recovery rate, also successfully recovering 115 BCGs out of 118 reliable BCGs from a large galaxy sample. Furthermore, when applied to an independent observational catalogue without extensive re-tuning, sOPTICS maintains high recovery efficiency, confirming its flexibility and effectiveness for large-scale astronomical surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Technical and Regulatory Aspects of Integrating Safety and Security at Nuclear Power Plants

This paper provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. It describes how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with safety mitigation actions in EMRALD, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as MAAP. The work performed in this paper is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are presented for dissemination. No plant’s sensitive information is included in this paper. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the proposed methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fossil group origins

Aims: We analyse the large-scale structure out to 100 Mpc around a sample of 16 confirmed fossil systems using spectroscopic information from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16. Methods: We computed the distance between our fossil groups (FGs) and the centres of filaments and nodes from the literature. We also studied the density of bright galaxies, since this parameter is thought to be a good mass tracers, as well as the projected over-densities of galaxies. Finally, we applied a friends-of-friends (FoF) algorithm to detect virialised structures around our FGs and obtain an estimate of the mass available in their surroundings. Results: We find that FGs are mainly located close to filaments, with a mean distance of 3.7 ± 1.1 R 200 and a minimum distance of 0.05 R 200 . On the other hand, none of our FGs were found close to intersections, with a mean and minimum distance of 19.3 ± 3.6 and 6.1 R 200 , respectively. There is a correlation that indicates FGs at higher redshifts are found in denser regions, when we use bright galaxies as tracers of the mass. At the same time, FGs with the largest magnitude gaps (Δm 12 > 2.5) are found in less dense environments and tend to host (on average) smaller central galaxies. Conclusions: Our results suggest that FGs formed in a peculiar position within the cosmic web, close to filaments and far from nodes, whereby their interaction with the cosmic web itself may be limited. We deduce that FGs with brightest central galaxies (BCGs) that are relatively faint, high values of Δm 12 , and low redshifts could, in fact, be systems that are at the very last stage of their evolution. Moreover, we confirm theoretical predictions that systems with the largest magnitude gap are not massive.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermo-Mechanical Properties of Super Sylramic SiC Fibers

Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) reinforced by Sic fibers, such as SiC/SiC, are targeted for application in hot-section components of advanced engines for aerospace propulsion and for electrical power generation. Two Super Sylramic Sic fiber types recently developed at NASA using the Sylramic fiber from COI Ceramics are candidates fof providing these components with improved thermal capability and improved performance. This paper reports on the state-of-the-art ability of these new fiber types to meet the key fiber requirements of these applications: high strength, high creep-rupture resistance, high environmental resistance, and high thermal conductivity. For example, creep-rupture tests performed at from 1350 to 1500 C under various environments to simulate CMC fabrication and service conditions show creep resistance in air improved -20 and -7 times in comparison to current Sylramic and Sylramic-iBN fiber types, respectively. This in turn resulted in an increase in fiber rupture life by up to two orders of magnitude. TEM and AES microscopic observations are presented to indicate that these improvements can be correlated with the replacement of weak grain boundary phases with stronger phases that hinder grain boundary sliding more effectively. SiC/SiC composite results are also provided to show the advantages of the Super Sylramic fiber types both for CMC fabrication and high temperature application.

Yun, H. M.↗

Testing First-Order Logic Axioms in AutoCert

AutoCert [2] is a formal verification tool for machine generated code in safety critical domains, such as aerospace control code generated from MathWorks Real-Time Workshop. AutoCert uses Automated Theorem Provers (ATPs) [5] based on First-Order Logic (FOL) to formally verify safety and functional correctness properties of the code. These ATPs try to build proofs based on user provided domain-specific axioms, which can be arbitrary First-Order Formulas (FOFs). These axioms are the most crucial part of the trusted base, since proofs can be submitted to a proof checker removing the need to trust the prover and AutoCert itself plays the part of checking the code generator. However, formulating axioms correctly (i.e. precisely as the user had really intended) is non-trivial in practice. The challenge of axiomatization arise from several dimensions. First, the domain knowledge has its own complexity. AutoCert has been used to verify mathematical requirements on navigation software that carries out various geometric coordinate transformations involving matrices and quaternions. Axiomatic theories for such constructs are complex enough that mistakes are not uncommon. Second, adjusting axioms for ATPs can add even more complexity. The axioms frequently need to be modified in order to have them in a form suitable for use with ATPs. Such modifications tend to obscure the axioms further. Thirdly, speculating validity of the axioms from the output of existing ATPs is very hard since theorem provers typically do not give any examples or counterexamples.

Ahn, Ki Yung↗

Revisiting Theoretical Predictions of the Motion and Direction of FTE's

Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) are magnetopause signatures that result from the passage of flux ropes produced by transient bursts of reconnection. They exhibit bipolar signatures in the component of the magnetic field normal to the magnetopause and transient increases or crater-like structures in the magnetic field strength. We use the bipolar magnetic field signatures and magnetic field strength variations observed by all four Cluster spacecrafts during the years of 2002 and 2003 to determine the velocity and direction fof FTE motion for comparison with predictions for the motion of FTEs generated by the component and anti-parallel reconnection models.

Collado-Vega, Y. M.↗