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Water Observations of Flow/No-Flow for the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado (June-July 2025 and 2026)

This dataset provides multi-year, ground-truth visual observations of surface water flow/no-flow conditions within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado, collected during June and July of 2025 and 2026. In June and July 2025, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) campaign (further details are provided within the CHESS Project Description). We obtained 377 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. These ground-truth observations were collected to validate classification maps from remote sensing data and model results within the East-Taylor Watershed. In 2025, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using a field-based app for the CHESS Campaign (Zerion iForm). Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included information about visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, and beaver activity. For 2025 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2025_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2025_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg and .jpeg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2025_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2025_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). In June and July 2026, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function SFA project. We obtained 365 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. The 2026 observations focused on collecting repeat measurements at the 2025 flow/no-flow observation locations conducted as part of the CHESS campaign. These ground-truth observations were collected to understand differences in flow/no-flow in 2026, given the unprecedented 2026 drought in Colorado. In 2026, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) Survey123. Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included repeat information from the 2025 water observation effort, including visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, beaver activity, and a new metadata component of estimated stream depth (for select locations). For 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2026_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2026_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2026_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2026_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). For 2025 and 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a location metadata file (locations.csv); (6) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (7) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. 2026-09-02: This dataset was updated to include 2026 water observation measurements. The 2025 observation files were also updated to ensure a consistent file naming convention across water observation years.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation

Boundary Layer Analysis of Shock Tube Flows

Shock tubes offer a controlled environment to reproduce kinetic and radiative phenomena characteristic of atmospheric entry flows under ground-test conditions. The boundary layer developing behind the incident shock wave determines the available test time, influences particle residence times important for similarity scaling, and can affect radiative energy transport. In this study, we couple a quasi-1D space marcher with the compressible boundary-layer equations to numerically compute the post-shock flow in a shock frame of reference for various test gas mixtures representative of different planetary atmospheres. The solvers are individually verified against CFD simulations and analytical correlations available in the literature. Coupled solutions are computed for a finite-rate chemistry in the boundary layer and a non-catalytic isothermal wall. Results yield refined estimates of the maximum separation distance, as well as insights into concentration profiles of relevant species within the boundary layer.

Andrea Fagnani

CO2 Handling & Electrolyzer Efficiency Scaling Evaluator

CHEESE is an interactive dashboard tool for estimating the performance and material requirements of carbon dioxide electrolysis systems. It helps users evaluate how electrode area, current density, product selectivity, gas flow, cell voltage, and the number of cells in a stack affect system operation. The dashboard provides simple and advanced modes so it can be used for both quick estimates and more detailed engineering analysis. Users can estimate product output, carbon dioxide use, electrical power, electrode area, gas and liquid flow rates, energy efficiency, material cost per test, and the effect of scaling from a single cell to a multi cell stack. It also includes tools for examining carbon balance, equipment durability, component replacement, and changes in performance over time. This is intended to help both academia and industry researchers who are either getting into CO2 electrolysis on lab-scale or are trying to establish a larger footprint. CHEESE presents results through tables, charts, and simplified cell and stack diagrams. It is intended to support research planning, experimental design, comparison of operating conditions, and early stage scale up studies.

Prajapati, Aditya [Lawrence Livermore National Lab

Development of global/chemistry model for jet-fuel thermal stability based on observations from static and flowing experiments

Two global-chemistry models for oxidative deposition of jet fuels are evaluated by integrating them into a Computational Fluid Dynamics with Chemistry (CFDC) code. A previously developed two-step global-chemistry model was found to be insufficient to describe the thermal-oxidation and -deposition rates associated with a Jet-A fuel. A new global-chemistry model has been developed systematically based on observations from flowing and static experiments. The global-autoxidation reaction is modified such that the reaction rate becomes zeroth-order with respect to the dissolved oxygen concentration. The generation of deposit-forming precursor is coupled with the autoxidation reaction by introducing a radical species ROO. A formulation for the sticking probability has also been developed. Deposition profiles are well represented by this new model under a variety of temperature and flow conditions. The model correctly predicts the changes in magnitude and spatial location of the deposition peak due to changes in flow. The CFDC model, which is designed for flowing systems, has been extended to static experiments. The model incorporates a non-depleting species F(sub s) representing all non-oxygen compounds responsible for deposition. Static experiments were found to provide a useful and inexpensive method for estimating the concentration of F(sub s) in the fuel.

V. R. Katta

Computing the Critical Temperature of the Affine-Transformed $D=3$ Ising Model Using Masked Autoregressive Flow

The simple Ising model provides a rich environment to build and study lattice field theories. As part of an ongoing project to construct a conformal field theory (CFT) on an arbitrarily curved manifold, in this work we develop methods to measure the critical temperature $β_c$ of the affine-transformed Ising model on the face-centered cubic (FCC) lattice. The main challenge in this endeavor is finding a computationally efficient and accurate method of interpolating and extrapolating Monte Carlo observables with respect to coupling coefficients and temperature. Herein, we compare two such methods. A traditional statistical approach uses the multiple histogram (MH) method, while a newer machine learning approach uses a masked autoregressive flow (MAF) to estimate the underlying probability density function of a set of observables. While the MH method is specifically designed to interpolate and extrapolate Monte Carlo observables, we find that MAF is a viable alternative for measuring $β_c$ with a computational cost that scales more favorably. Furthermore, we comment on additional advantages of MAF relevant to our work, such as extrapolating in system volume.

Svenson, Kai [Texas U.]

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Thermal Design

An essential phase of the Explorer XIII development was a thermal study and design to provide an acceptable temperature environment for the electronics components and external surfaces of the satellite during ascent and in orbit. It was necessary to establish by preflight analysis and tests that tolerable temperatures could be maintained in three regimes of flight. In the first regime (from launch until release of the heat shield) the satellite was subjected to radiative and conductive heat from the shield. In the second regime, after release of the shield at 350,000 feet, the satellite was heated by free molecular flow. In the third regime - the orbit phase - it was necessary that temperatures within limits for a 1-year lifetime be established. In addition to these three regimes, a study was made to investigate the effect of elevated rocket-motor temperatures during launch and after burnout. This chapter will deal with some pertinent preflight estimates and correlation of these estimates with flight data.

Explorer XIII Satellite

Artemis I Space Launch System Base Heat Shield Thermal Protection System Performance

The Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage base heat shield experienced the highest external heating environments on the entire launch vehicle during Artemis I ascent flight. This result was consistent with design predictions. The base heat shield experiences P50 cork combustion dynamics at low altitudes, plume-induced recirculation at moderate altitudes and then in-space base flow physics out to Main Engine Cut-Off (MECO). The base heat shield thermal protection system (TPS) is composed of a P50 cork ablator which is bonded to a substrate. The heat shield protects the gimbal actuation system, RS-25 turbomachinery systems and other aft section sensitive components during ascent. This paper estimates the base heat shield TPS performance from Artemis I using flight data from the NASA Langley Research Center’s Scientifically Calibrated In-Flight Imagery (SCIFLI) Airborne Multispectral Imager (SAMI), development flight instrumentation (DFI) and other TPS recession flight measurements. Predictions from computational and ground test-derived engineering ablation models and observations are also applied. Since no base heat shield substrate thermocouple data were obtained for Artemis I, an estimate of the TPS performance data is derived here. This data assesses thermal margin of the SLS Core Stage base heat shield and best informs the Artemis II Crewed mission to the moon.

aerothermodynamics

Nitrile/Buna N Material Failure Assessment for an O-Ring used on the Gaseous Hydrogen Flow Control Valve (FCV) of the Space Shuttle Main Engine

After the rollout of Space Shuttle Discovery in April 2005 in preparation for return-to-flight, there was a failure of the Orbiter (OV-103) helium signature leak test in the gaseous hydrogen (GH2) system. Leakage was attributed to the Flow Control Valve (FCV) in Main Engine 3. The FCV determined to be the source of the leak for OV-103 is designated as LV-58. The nitrile/Buna N rubber O-ring seal was removed from LV-58, and failure analysis indicated radial cracks providing leak paths in one quadrant. Cracks were eventually found in 6 of 9 FCV O-rings among the three Shuttle Orbiters, though none were as severe as those for LV-58, OV-103. Testing by EM10 at MSFC on all 9 FCV O- rings included: laser dimensional, Shore A hardness and properties from a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA) and an Instron tensile machine. The following test data was obtained on the cracked quadrant of the LV-58, OV-103 O-ring: (1) the estimated compression set was only 9.5%, compared to none for the rest of the O-ring; (2) Shore A hardness for the O.D. was higher by almost 4 durometer points than for the rest of the O-ring; and (3) DMA data showed that the storage/elastic modulus E was almost 25% lower than for the rest of the O-ring. Of the 8 FCV O-rings tested on an Instron, 4 yielded tensile strengths that were below the MIL spec requirement of 1350 psi-a likely influence of rubber cracking. Comparisons were made between values of modulus determined by DNA (elastic) and Instron (Young s). Each nitrile/Buna N O-ring used in the FCV conforms to the MIL-P-25732C specification. A number of such O-rings taken from shelf storage at MSFC and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) were used to generate a reference curve of DMA glass transition temperature (Tg) vs. shelf storage time ranging from 8 to 26 years. A similar reference curve of TGA onset temperature (of rubber weight loss) vs. shelf storage time was also generated. The DMA and TGA data for the used FCV O-rings were compared to the reference curves. Correlations were also made between the DMA modulus (at 22 C) and Shore A hardness for all 9 of the FCV O-rings used among the three Shuttle Orbiters. The radial cracking in the FCV O-rings was determined to be due to ozone attack, as nitrile/Buna N rubber is susceptible to such attack. Nitrile/Buna N material under MIL-P25732C should be used in a hydraulic fluid environment to help protect it from cracking. However, the FCV O-rings were used in an air only environment. The FCV design has as much as a 9-mil gap that allows the O.D. of the O-ring to be directly exposed to ozone, pressurized air and some elevated temperatures, accelerating the weathering process that leads to O-ring cracking. Space Shuttle flights will likely not continue past 2010. Therefore, Shuttle management decided to continue using the nitrile/Buna N material for the FCVs, but have each O-ring replaced after 3 years to minimize any chances for crack initiation.

Doug Wingard

From Exploration Flight Test-1 to Artemis II--A NASA Langley's Orion Aerosciences Overview

The Orion Aerosciences program at NASA Langley has played a central role in advancing the aerodynamic and aeroheating prediction capabilities required for the Orion crew vehicle’s return from deep space. This presentation provides a technical overview of aerosciences contributions spanning Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Artemis I, and the ongoing post-flight analysis of Artemis II. EFT-1 provided the first high-energy entry dataset for Orion, enabling critical validation of aerodynamic force and moment predictions, static and dynamic stability characteristics, and aeroheating environments at relevant flight Mach and Reynolds numbers. Flight-derived pressure data were used to refine the Flush Air Data System (FADS) methodology for atmospheric density reconstruction and to improve Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) solutions. The EFT-1 data also offered key insights into heat shield performance, including char layer recession, in-depth thermal response, and material retention behavior under flight conditions, informing updates to both thermal response models and uncertainty quantification practices. Building on EFT-1, Artemis I extended the database to true lunar-return conditions. Observations of heat shield performance, including localized char loss, bondline response, and recession variability, provided an unprecedented opportunity to reassess Thermal Protection System (TPS) and aeroheating modeling assumptions. Aerodynamic reconstruction efforts incorporated improved FADS calibration, enhanced atmospheric modeling, and refined force and moment databases to reduce trajectory and load uncertainties. Aeroheating comparisons between pre-flight predictions and flight data enabled targeted model updates, particularly in transitional flow environments and wake heating regions. For Artemis II, these lessons were systematically incorporated into the pre-flight prediction process. Updates included refined aerodynamic databases anchored to flight-validated corrections, improved density estimation and BET methodologies using enhanced database interpolation algorithm and FADS modeling, and revised aeroheating design environments informed by Artemis I material response observations. By the time of the workshop, Artemis II post-flight analysis will be underway, and preliminary findings will be presented where available, including early comparisons of aerodynamic reconstruction, atmospheric density estimation, and thermal protection system performance relative to updated predictions. Collectively, this body of work is a testament to the dedicated and multidisciplinary team whose sustained efforts have contributed to the program’s success and to the progressive maturation of Orion aerosciences modeling through numerical modeling, ground and flight data assimilation. The integrated advancement of aerodynamics, trajectory reconstruction, FADS-based density estimation, and aeroheating analysis has reduced predictive uncertainty and strengthened confidence for future crewed lunar and deep-space missions.

Orion

Online Prediction of Battery Discharge and Estimation of Parasitic Loads for an Electric Aircraft

Predicting whether or not vehicle batteries contain sufficient charge to support operations over the remainder of a given flight plan is critical for electric aircraft. This paper describes an approach for identifying upper and lower uncertainty bounds on predictions that aircraft batteries will continue to meet output power and voltage requirements over the remainder of a flight plan. Battery discharge prediction is considered here in terms of the following components; (i) online battery state of charge estimation; (ii) prediction of future battery power demand as a function of an aircraft flight plan; (iii) online estimation of additional parasitic battery loads; and finally, (iv) estimation of flight plan safety. Substantial uncertainty is considered to be an irremovable part of the battery discharge prediction problem. However, high-confidence estimates of flight plan safety or lack of safety are shown to be generated from even highly uncertain prognostic predictions.

Battery Discharge Prediction

Methods for Validation of Random Uncertainty Estimates and Their Applications to Ozone Profiles From Limb-Viewing Satellite Instruments

For satellite measurements of atmospheric composition, the random uncertainty estimates provided by retrieval algorithms might be imperfect due to various approximations used in the retrievals or the presence of unknown error sources. This paper presents an overview of the methods used for the validation of random uncertainty estimates. All methods discussed in this study are categorized, and assumptions and limitations of each method are discussed. This overview evaluates these methods in application to ozone profile measurements from limb and occultation satellite instruments and provides practical illustrations of random uncertainty validation.

Viktoria F Sofieva

Estimating the Size of Huffman Code Preambles

Data compression via block-adaptive Huffman coding is considered. The compressor consecutively processes blocks of N data symbols, estimates source statistics by computing the relative frequencies of each source symbol in the block, and then synthesizes a Huffman code based on these estimates. In order to let the decompressor know which Huffman code is being used, the compressor must begin the transmission of each compressed block with a short preamble or header file. This file is an encoding of the list n = (n 1 , n 2 ....,n m ), where n i is the length of the Hufffman codeword associated with the ith source symbol. A simple method of doing this encoding is to individually encode each n i into a fixed-length binary word of length log 2 l, where l is an a priori upper bound on the codeword length. This method produces a maximum preamble length of mlog 2 l bits. The object is to show that, in most cases, no substantially shorter header of any kind is possible.

R J McEliece

PERSIANN-Unet: A Global Deep Learning Framework for Near-Real-Time Precipitation Estimation Using Infrared Data

Access to high-quality, high-resolution, near-real-time precipitation data is essential for hydrological and meteorological research and disaster mitigation. Traditional tools such as rain gauges and radar networks, though effective, have limitations, including sparse coverage in remote areas and high operational costs. Satellite data, with its global coverage and high spatial and temporal resolutions, mitigates limitations in coverage. Satellite precipitation products like Hydro Estimator (HE), Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) utilize both geosynchronous thermal infrared (IR) and passive microwave (PMW) data in their operation. PMW sensors offer detailed atmospheric profiles but suffer from higher latency, whereas IR sensors provide lower latency but only capture cloud-top information. Despite this constraint, IR data remains attractive for low-latency precipitation estimation. Recent advances in deep learning, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have further improved satellite precipitation retrievals. This study introduces PERSIANN-Unet (PUnet or PERSIANN V3), a quasi-global algorithm covering 60°N–60°S that combines IR data, monthly climatology, and the UNet architecture to produce half-hourly precipitation estimates at 0.04° resolution. The product is evaluated against HE, IMERG, and PDIR-Now for 2022–2023. Results show that PUnet closely matches its training target, IMERG V07 Final, at the global scale, and performance is further evaluated against Stage IV as a reference over CONUS. Training PUnet on IMERG (2016–2021) leverages a high-quality, integrated PMW IR-gauge precipitation product while developing an IR-based framework not reliant on PMW availability. By operating on a single global image, PUnet avoids tile partitioning and blending steps, reducing edge discontinuities, and produces more spatially consistent precipitation fields across hemispheres.

Phu Nguyen

Improved constraints on hematite refractive index for estimating climatic effects of dust aerosols

Abstract Uncertainty in desert dust composition poses a big challenge to understanding Earth’s climate across different epochs. Of particular concern is hematite, an iron-oxide mineral dominating the solar absorption by dust particles, for which current estimates of absorption capacity vary by over two orders of magnitude. Here, we show that laboratory measurements of dust composition, absorption, and scattering provide valuable constraints on the absorption potential of hematite, substantially narrowing its range of plausible values. The success of this constraint is supported by results from an atmospheric transport model compared with station-based measurements. Additionally, we identify substantial bias in simulating hematite abundance in dust aerosols with current soil mineralogy descriptions, underscoring the necessity for improved data sources. Encouragingly, the next-generation imaging spectroscopy remote sensing data hold promise for capturing the spatial variability of hematite. These insights have implications for enhancing dust modeling, thus contributing to efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

A quality-agnostic combinatoric cost estimation model for large-format directed energy deposition metal additive manufacturing

Directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM) processes are amenable to synergistic combination into multi-process AM systems due to similar requirements for automation and energy sources. This work analyzes the economic performance of such DED AM systems from a quality-agnostic combinatoric standpoint with a model that calculates lowest-cost system combinations based on part geometry and process performance metrics. Common DED AM systems research focuses on a single process and does not consider the process, system, and application in the context of all possible system combinations (e.g., the combined set of process selection(s), motion system(s), and process hardware), leading to limited applicability of the resulting DED AM systems to cost-sensitive components such as those found in energy generation applications. The model developed herein incorporates the capital, material, and energy costs associated with DED AM system combinations into a predictive tool for estimating part and system cost, the output of which is intended to guide deployment of finite research and development resources towards DED AM system combinations with the lowest costs and greatest likelihood of economic impact. The DED AM systems identified by this framework may enable domestic production of the large conventionally cast and forged components necessary for energy generation.

Shanafield, Alexandra [ORNL]

Lunar Nuclear Reactor Neutron Fluence and Gamma Dose Estimates

NASA aims to deploy a fission reactor on the lunar surface by 2030 to generate 100 kWe of power for at least 10 years without maintenance or refueling. To assess system and subsystem survivability according to those requirements, a model of the reactor pallet was created in the radiation transport code MCNP to determine the neutron fluences and gamma doses that the materials and systems would be exposed to. The model was based on the 2025 government design. The model indicated that the control drum motors, Brayton cycle engines, and pipes and valves would be exposed to neutron fluences of 1×10 15 – 1×10 16 n/cm 2 per year and gamma doses ranging from 10 to 500 Mrad per year. The electronics box housing the instrumentation and control elements is expected to receive 1×10 14 – 1×10 15 n/cm 2 per year and gamma doses in the range of 1–5 Mrad per year. These doses necessitate that the control drum motors, Brayton cycle engines, valve components, control electronics, and other components be radiation-hardened (>10 16 n/cm 2 and >10 Mrad gamma dose) or additionally shielded to survive the 10-year lunar mission.

Radiation-Hardened Materials