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At least 19 records

CO₂ emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more—than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

WHERE ARE THE FOSSILS OF THE FIRST GALAXIES? II. TRUE FOSSILS, GHOST HALOS, AND THE MISSING BRIGHT SATELLITES

We use a new set of cold dark matter simulations of the local universe to investigate the distribution of fossils of primordial dwarf galaxies within and around the Milky Way. Throughout, we build upon previous results showing agreement between the observed stellar properties of a subset of the ultra-faint dwarfs and our simulated fossils. Here, we show that fossils of the first galaxies have galactocentric distributions and cumulative luminosity functions consistent with observations. In our model, we predict {approx}300 luminous satellites orbiting the Milky Way, 50%-70% of which are well-preserved fossils. Within the Milky Way virial radius, the majority of these fossils have luminosities L{sub V} < 10{sup 6} L{sub sun}. Despite our multidimensional agreement with observations at low masses and luminosities, the primordial model produces an overabundance of bright dwarf satellites (L{sub V} > 10{sup 4} L{sub sun}) with respect to observations where observations are nearly complete. The 'bright satellite problem' is most evident in the outer parts of the Milky Way. We estimate that, although relatively bright, the primordial stellar populations are very diffuse, producing a population with surface brightnesses below surveys' detection limits, and are easily stripped by tidal forces. Although we cannot yet present unmistakable evidence for the existence of the fossils of first galaxies in the Local Group, the results of our studies suggest observational strategies that may demonstrate their existence: (1) the detection of 'ghost halos' of primordial stars around isolated dwarfs would prove that stars formed in minihalos (M < 10{sup 8} M{sub sun}) before reionization and strongly suggest that at least a fraction of the ultra-faint dwarfs are fossils of the first galaxies; and (2) the existence of a yet unknown population of {approx}150 Milky Way ultra-faints with half-light radii r{sub hl} {approx} 100-1000 pc and luminosities L{sub V} < 10{sup 4} L{sub sun}, detectable by future deep surveys. These undetected dwarfs would have the mass-to-light ratios, stellar velocity dispersions, and metallicities predicted in this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Beyond fossil fuel–driven nitrogen transformations

Nitrogen is fundamental to all of life and many industrial processes. The interchange of nitrogen oxidation states in the industrial production of ammonia, nitric acid, and other commodity chemicals is largely powered by fossil fuels. Here, a key goal of contemporary research in the field of nitrogen chemistry is to minimize the use of fossil fuels by developing more efficient heterogeneous, homogeneous, photo-, and electrocatalytic processes or by adapting the enzymatic processes underlying the natural nitrogen cycle. These approaches, as well as the challenges involved, are discussed in this Review.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Wyoming CarbonSAFE: Advancing Commercialization of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in Fossil-Rich Wyoming

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin (PRB) is the most prolific coal producer and exporter in the United States and the State of Wyoming’s largest oil-producing basin. In addition to being a leading energy producer, the PRB is the site of research programs whose aim is to develop and integrate low-carbon technologies into existing fossil fuel energy industries. Much of the PRB’s low-carbon research is focused around Dry Fork Station (DFS), which is the newest coal-fired power station in the western US. Currently, DFS hosts five carbon capture projects, including pilot-scale capture projects that utilize different capture technologies and a full front-end engineering and design (FEED) study, a commercial CO 2 pipeline for nearby CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery industry, and is also co-located with the Wyoming Integrated Test Center, which is a host facility for unconventional carbon utilization research (i.e. flue gas carbon-to-products innovations). DFS is also the host site for the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project. Wyoming CarbonSAFE, funded by the Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory, is a multi-phased program (currently in Phase II) whose core objective is developing and validating storage sites within a complex capable of storing 50 million metric tonnes of CO 2 over a 30 year project period using carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). This paper will provide an overview of the project to-date, showing that CarbonSAFE goals are achievable with respect to geologic, environmental, regulatory, CO 2 source and economic conditions, and why the State of Wyoming offers one of the more favorable environments to advance the commercialization studies. In 2019, the project team designed and completed a ~10,000 foot stratigraphic test well just south of DFS. From this well, the team collected over 600 feet of core, fluid samples from target injection zones, and a full petrophysical log suite. In addition, legacy 2D seismic lines were acquired and a 3D seismic survey was acquired in the fall of 2020. The objective of these field activities has been to identify and characterize target storage reservoirs and associated caprock. This complex has several reservoirs that could meet commercial injection goals, and over 4000 feet of associated caprock. Simulations of site performance suggest that stacked injection provides the most effective storage strategy, and would necessitate several sites within the greater complex to meet final project injection goals. Other work within this project includes the development of a business-case around proximal fields with CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery potential and existing tax credits, assessment of regulatory conditions, including pore space ownership and Class VI injection well permitting requirements, implementation of a robust public outreach Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3821220 GHGT-15 McLaughlin 2 program, and surface site characterization activities that have focused on environmental factors. In the PRB and at DFS, the State of Wyoming and other entities have made carbon management a priority of its future energy industry by providing a regulatory and business framework that is favorable to advancing these technologies. These endeavors will become more realistic with the successful implementation of Wyoming CarbonSAFE, and its ability to secure and validate commercial-scale CCUS at the center of Wyoming’s premier low-carbon research efforts.

McLaughlin, Fred↗

Development of an Innovative Inspection Tool for Superheater Tubes in Fossil Fuel Power Plants

Fossil fuel power plants are complex systems containing multiple components that require periodic health monitoring. Failures in these systems can lead to increased downtime for the plant, reduction of power, and significant cost for repairs. Inspections of the plant’s superheater tubes are typically manual, laborious, and extremely time-consuming. This is due to their small diameter size (between 1.3 and 7.6 cm) and the coiled structure of the tubing. In addition, the tubes are often stacked close to each other, limiting access for external inspection. This paper presents the development and testing of an electrically powered pipe crawler that can navigate inside 5 cm diameter tubes and provide an assessment of their health. The crawler utilizes peristaltic motion within the tubes via interconnected modules for gripping and extending. The modular nature of the system allows it to traverse through straight sections and multiple 90° and 180° bends. Additional modules in the system include an ultrasonic sensor for tube thickness measurements, as well as environmental sensors, a light detecting and ranging (LiDAR) sensor, and camera. Furthermore, these modules utilize a gear system that allows for 360° rotation and provides a means to inspect the entire internal circumference of the tubes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hierarchical biota-level and taxonomic controls on the chemistry of fossil melanosomes revealed using synchrotron X-ray fluorescence

Fossil melanosomes, micron-sized granules rich in melanin in vivo, provide key information for investigations of the original coloration, taxonomy and internal anatomy of fossil vertebrates. Such studies rely, in part, on analysis of the inorganic chemistry of preserved melanosomes and an understanding of melanosome chemical taphonomy. The extent to which the preserved chemistry of fossil melanosomes is biased by biotic and abiotic factors is, however, unknown. Here we report the discovery of hierarchical controls on the inorganic chemistry of melanosomes from fossil vertebrates from nine biotas. The chemical data are dominated by a strong biota-level signal, indicating that the primary taphonomic control is the diagenetic history of the host sediment. This extrinsic control is superimposed by a biological, tissue-level control; tissue-specific chemical variation is most likely to survive in fossils where the inorganic chemistry of preserved melanosomes is distinct from that of the host sediment. Comparative analysis of our data for fossil and modern amphibians reveals that most fossil specimens show tissue-specific melanosome chemistries that differ from those of extant analogues, strongly suggesting alteration of original melanosome chemistry. Collectively, these findings form a predictive tool for the identification of fossil deposits with well-preserved melanosomes amenable to studies of fossil colour and anatomy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Cheshire Cat gravitational lens: The formation of a massive fossil group

The Cheshire Cat is a relatively poor group of galaxies dominated by two luminous elliptical galaxies surrounded by at least four arcs from gravitationally lensed background galaxies that give the system a humorous appearance. Our combined optical/X-ray study of this system reveals that it is experiencing a line of sight merger between two groups with a roughly equal mass ratio with a relative velocity of ∼1350 km s{sup −1}. One group was most likely a low-mass fossil group, while the other group would have almost fit the classical definition of a fossil group. The collision manifests itself in a bimodal galaxy velocity distribution, an elevated central X-ray temperature and luminosity indicative of a shock, and gravitational arc centers that do not coincide with either large elliptical galaxy. One of the luminous elliptical galaxies has a double nucleus embedded off-center in the stellar halo. The luminous ellipticals should merge in less than a Gyr, after which observers will see a massive 1.2–1.5 × 10{sup 14} M{sub ⊙} fossil group with an M{sub r}=−24.0 brightest group galaxy at its center. Thus, the Cheshire Cat offers us the first opportunity to study a fossil group progenitor. We discuss the limitations of the classical definition of a fossil group in terms of magnitude gaps between the member galaxies. We also suggest that if the merging of fossil (or near-fossil) groups is a common avenue for creating present-day fossil groups, the time lag between the final galactic merging of the system and the onset of cooling in the shock-heated core could account for the observed lack of well-developed cool cores in some fossil groups.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Clumped isotope thermometry of modern and fossil snail shells from the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau: Implications for paleoclimate and paleoelevation reconstructions

Carbonate clumped isotope thermometry has been applied to fossil mollusk shells from Tibet to reconstruct the paleoclimate and paleoelevation of the region. However, inferred paleoelevation and climatic conditions from this proxy are inconsistent with paleontological evidence. Here, we report new clumped isotope data from both modern and fossil (5–4 Ma) freshwater mollusk shells with the results of X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of fossil shells from the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau. Although all of the fossil shells analyzed in this study appeared pristine based on visual inspection, XRD data reveal that more than half of these apparently “pristine” fossil shells contain trace amounts of calcite. Clumped isotope temperatures derived from the fossil shells display a large range of variation (>22 °C). Among the fossil shells analyzed, those containing traces of calcite have yielded temperatures that are on average ~10 °C lower than those with no detectable calcite from the same strata. These observations suggest that clumped isotope alteration can occur in aragonite shells in low-temperature environments and even in shells with no visible signs of alteration that contain only traces of calcite. The temperatures derived from fossil shells with no detectable calcite are on average 4 °C higher than those derived from modern shells, indicating that southwest Tibet was warmer 4–5 Ma than today. After accounting for temperature change due to global cooling, the difference in clumped isotope temperatures between pristine fossil shells and modern shells suggests that the paleoelevation of the southwestern Tibetan Plateau in the Pliocene was similar to its present-day elevation.

Geology↗

Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC)–U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources

The EERC teamed with the DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory to conduct complementary research and development under the Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources (Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC26-08NT43291). This 10-year program merged two previous 10-year agreements—DE-FC26-98FT40320 and DE-FC26-98FT40321—into a single follow-on agreement. The Fossil Energy cooperative agreement between DOE and the EERC was initiated in 1983 when the EERC was defederalized. This dynamic 35-year partnership has evolved to further research in areas that address DOE Office of Fossil Energy program goals while serving the missions and exploiting the strengths of both organizations through this agreement and a new 5-year Fossil Energy-Related Resources cooperative agreement established in 2015. As the 10-year program has ended, the purpose of this report is to summarize the activity and significant outcomes that were accomplished by the EERC. This program is an excellent model for research, development, demonstration, and commercialization partnerships between government, industry, and the applied science and engineering communities to bring cutting-edge science closer to commercial application. The overarching goal was to support DOE Fossil Energy goals by advancing the scientific knowledge and technical development essential to ensuring future sustainable supplies of affordable energy and clean water, protecting and restoring the environment, and reducing dependence on foreign energy sources, thereby increasing U.S. energy security. The strategic objective was to advance continued use of domestic fossil fuels as a mainstay of U.S. energy production by making fossil energy systems nonpolluting and more efficient, capturing and sequestering greenhouse gases, and integrating the use of fossil and renewable energy sources into the energy mix. The research achievements from this partnership have exceeded the goals and objectives by contributing substantially to the development of science-based energy and environmental policy, educational foundations for science and technology, and commercialization and international marketing of energy technologies. The program comprised 75 individual projects, which included basic/applied fossil energy research projects involving no cost share and development, demonstration, and commercialization projects (many derived from applied research projects) that included nonfederal cost share of approximately 40% (the contractually required minimum level of cumulative nonfederal cost share was 29%). In all, 32,798,698 of federal funding was leveraged with industry cash and in-kind cost share of 21,697,129 from 80 nonfederal partners for a total of 54,495,827 of funded research that 1) advanced the development of unconventional tight oil resources in the Bakken Formation; 2) demonstrated the application of CO 2 Storage and EOR in tight oil formations; 3) developed advanced carbon capture technology; 4) addressed key application and infrastructure concerns for commercial deployment of CO 2 ; 5) demonstrated innovative, integrated water management strategies for energy development projects; 6) developed novel pollution control technologies for mercury and hazardous air pollutants; and 7) performed world-class outreach and dissemination of research results to industry partners and other stakeholders. These outcomes speak to the valuable return on the substantial investment in this program.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Role of non-fossil energy in meeting China's energy and climate target for 2020

China is the largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter in the world. The Chinese government faces growing challenges of ensuring energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To address these two issues, the Chinese government has announced two ambitious domestic indicative autonomous mitigation targets for 2020: increasing the ratio of non-fossil energy to 15% and reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45% from 2005 levels. To explore the role of non-fossil energy in achieving these two targets, this paper first provides an overview of current status of non-fossil energy development in China; then gives a brief review of GDP and primary energy consumption; next assesses in detail the role of the non fossil energy in 2020, including the installed capacity and electricity generation of non-fossil energy sources, the share and role of non-fossil energy in the electricity structure, emissions reduction resulting from the shift to non-fossil energy, and challenges for accomplishing the mitigation targets in 2020 ; finally, conclusions and policy measures for non-fossil energy development are proposed.

non-fossil energy, low carbon energy, emission red↗

THE XMM CLUSTER SURVEY: THE STELLAR MASS ASSEMBLY OF FOSSIL GALAXIES

This paper presents both the result of a search for fossil systems (FSs) within the XMM Cluster Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the results of a study of the stellar mass assembly and stellar populations of their fossil galaxies. In total, 17 groups and clusters are identified at z < 0.25 with large magnitude gaps between the first and fourth brightest galaxies. All the information necessary to classify these systems as fossils is provided. For both groups and clusters, the total and fractional luminosity of the brightest galaxy is positively correlated with the magnitude gap. The brightest galaxies in FSs (called fossil galaxies) have stellar populations and star formation histories which are similar to normal brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). However, at fixed group/cluster mass, the stellar masses of the fossil galaxies are larger compared to normal BCGs, a fact that holds true over a wide range of group/cluster masses. Moreover, the fossil galaxies are found to contain a significant fraction of the total optical luminosity of the group/cluster within 0.5 R{sub 200}, as much as 85%, compared to the non-fossils, which can have as little as 10%. Our results suggest that FSs formed early and in the highest density regions of the universe and that fossil galaxies represent the end products of galaxy mergers in groups and clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

WHERE ARE THE FOSSILS OF THE FIRST GALAXIES? I. LOCAL VOLUME MAPS AND PROPERTIES OF THE UNDETECTED DWARFS

We present a new method for generating initial conditions for {Lambda}CDM N-body simulations which provides the dynamical range necessary to follow the evolution and distribution of the fossils of the first galaxies on Local Volume, 5-10 Mpc, scales. The initial distribution of particles represents the position, velocity, and mass distribution of the dark and luminous halos extracted from pre-reionization simulations. We confirm previous results that ultra-faint dwarfs have properties compatible with being well-preserved fossils of the first galaxies. However, because the brightest pre-reionization dwarfs form preferentially in biased regions, they most likely merge into non-fossil halos with circular velocities >20-30 km s{sup -1}. Hence, we find that the maximum luminosity of true fossils in the Milky Way is L{sub V} < 10{sup 6} L{sub sun}, casting doubts on the interpretation that some classical dSphs are true fossils. In addition, we argue that most ultra-faints at small galactocentric distance, R < 50 kpc, had their stellar properties modified by tides, while a large population of fossils is still undetected due to their extremely low surface brightness log ({Sigma}{sub V}) < -1.4. We estimate that the region outside R{sub 50} ({approx}400 kpc) up to 1 Mpc from the Milky Way contains about a hundred true fossils of the first galaxies with V-band luminosity 10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} L{sub sun} and half-light radii, r{sub hl} {approx} 100-1000 pc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using Macro- and Microscale Preservation in Vertebrate Fossils as Predictors for Molecular Preservation in Fluvial Environments

Exceptionally preserved fossils retain soft tissues and often the biomolecules that were present in an animal during its life. The majority of terrestrial vertebrate fossils are not traditionally considered exceptionally preserved, with fossils falling on a spectrum ranging from very well-preserved to poorly preserved when considering completeness, morphology and the presence of microstructures. Within this variability of anatomical preservation, high-quality macro-scale preservation (e.g., articulated skeletons) may not be reflected in molecular-scale preservation (i.e., biomolecules). Excavation of the Hayden Quarry (HQ; Chinle Formation, Ghost Ranch, NM, USA) has resulted in the recovery of thousands of fossilized vertebrate specimens. This has contributed greatly to our knowledge of early dinosaur evolution and paleoenvironmental conditions during the Late Triassic Period (~212 Ma). The number of specimens, completeness of skeletons and fidelity of osteohistological microstructures preserved in the bone all demonstrate the remarkable quality of the fossils preserved at this locality. Because the Hayden Quarry is an excellent example of good preservation in a fluvial environment, we have tested different fossil types (i.e., bone, tooth, coprolite) to examine the molecular preservation and overall taphonomy of the HQ to determine how different scales of preservation vary within a single locality. We used multiple high-resolution mass spectrometry techniques (TOF-SIMS, GC-MS, FT-ICR MS) to compare the fossils to unaltered bone from extant vertebrates, experimentally matured bone, and younger dinosaurian skeletal material from other fluvial environments. FT-ICR MS provides detailed molecular information about complex mixtures, and TOF-SIMS has high elemental spatial sensitivity. Using these techniques, we did not find convincing evidence of a molecular signal that can be confidently interpreted as endogenous, indicating that very good macro- and microscale preservation are not necessarily good predictors of molecular preservation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate.

McCollum, David↗

Preservation of erniettomorph fossils in clay-rich siliciclastic deposits from the Ediacaran Wood Canyon Formation, Nevada

Three-dimensionally preserved Ediacaran fossils occur globally within sandstone beds. Sandy siliciclastic deposits of the Ediacaran Wood Canyon Formation (WCF) in the Montgomery Mountains, Nevada, contain two fossil morphologies with similar shapes and sizes: one exhibits mm-scale ridges and a distinct lower boundary and the other is devoid of these diagnostic features. We interpret these as taphomorphs of erniettomorphs, soft-bodied organisms with uncertain taxonomic affinities. We explore the cast-and-mould preservation of both taphomorphs by petrography, Raman spectroscopy, X-ray fluorescence microprobe and X-ray diffraction. All fossils and the surrounding sedimentary matrix contain quartz grains, iron-rich chlorite and muscovite. The ridged fossils contain about 70% larger quartz grains compared to the ridgeless taphomorph, indicating a lower abundance of clay minerals in the ridged fossil. Chlorite and muscovite likely originated from smectite and kaolinite precursors that underwent lower greenschist facies metamorphism. Kaolinite and smectite are inferred to have been abundant in sediments around the ridged fossil, which enabled the preservation of a continuous, distinct, clay- and kerogen-rich bottom boundary. The prevalence of quartz in the ridged fossils of the WCF and in erniettomorphs from other localities also suggests a role for this mineral in three-dimensional preservation of erniettomorphs in sandstone and siltstone deposits.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Are Fossil Groups Early-forming Galaxy Systems?

Using the Illustris cosmological simulation, we investigate the origin of fossil groups in the M{sub 200}=10{sup 13}--10{sup 13.5} M{sub ⊙} h{sup −1} mass regime. We examine the formation of the two primary features of fossil groups: the large magnitude gap between their two brightest galaxies and their exceptionally luminous brightest group galaxy (BGG). For fossils and nonfossils identified at z = 0, we find no difference in their halo mass assembly histories at early times, departing from previous studies. However, we do find a significant difference in the recent accretion history of fossil and nonfossil halos; in particular, fossil groups show a lack of recent accretion and have in majority assembled 80% of their M{sub 200}(z=0) mass before z∼0.4. For fossils, massive satellite galaxies accreted during this period have enough time to merge with the BGG by the present day, producing a more massive central galaxy. In addition, the lack of recent group accretion prevents replenishment of the bright satellite population, allowing for a large magnitude gap to develop within the past few Gyr. We thus find that the origin of the magnitude gap and overmassive BGG of fossils in Illustris depends on the recent accretion history of the groups and merger history of the BGGs after their collapse at z∼1. This indicates that selecting galaxy groups by their magnitude gap does not guarantee obtaining either early-forming galaxy systems or undisturbed central galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion

This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores 5 our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e. maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions 10 from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10% uncertainty (95% 15 confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50 %. The information discussed in this manuscript synthesizes global, regional and national fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions, their distributions, their transport, and the associated uncertainties.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗