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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Statistic analysis of annual total ozone extremes for the period 1964-1988

Annual extremes of total column amount of ozone (in the period 1964-1988) from a network of 29 Dobson stations have been examined using the extreme value analysis. The extremes have been calculated as the highest deviation of daily mean total ozone from its long-term monthly mean, normalized by the monthly standard deviations. The extremes have been selected from the direct-Sun total ozone observations only. The extremes resulting from abrupt changes in ozone (day to day changes greater than 20 percent) have not been considered. The ordered extremes (maxima in ascending way, minima in descending way) have been fitted to one of three forms of the Fisher-Tippet extreme value distribution by the nonlinear least square method (Levenberg-Marguard method). We have found that the ordered extremes from a majority of Dobson stations lie close to Fisher-Tippet type III. The extreme value analysis of the composite annual extremes (combined from averages of the annual extremes selected at individual stations) has shown that the composite maxima are fitted by the Fisher-Tippet type III and the composite minima by the Fisher-Tippet type I. The difference between the Fisher-Tippet types of the composite extremes seems to be related to the ozone downward trend. Extreme value prognoses for the period 1964-2014 (derived from the data taken at: all analyzed stations, the North American, and the European stations) have revealed that the prognostic extremes are close to the largest annual extremes in the period 1964-1988 and there are only small regional differences in the prognoses.

Krzyscin, Janusz W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Extreme value statistics analysis of fracture strengths of a sintered silicon nitride failing from pores

Statistical analysis and correlation between pore-size distribution and fracture strength distribution using the theory of extreme-value statistics is presented for a sintered silicon nitride. The pore-size distribution on a polished surface of this material was characterized, using an automatic optical image analyzer. The distribution measured on the two-dimensional plane surface was transformed to a population (volume) distribution, using the Schwartz-Saltykov diameter method. The population pore-size distribution and the distribution of the pore size at the fracture origin were correllated by extreme-value statistics. Fracture strength distribution was then predicted from the extreme-value pore-size distribution, usin a linear elastic fracture mechanics model of annular crack around pore and the fracture toughness of the ceramic. The predicted strength distribution was in good agreement with strength measurements in bending. In particular, the extreme-value statistics analysis explained the nonlinear trend in the linearized Weibull plot of measured strengths without postulating a lower-bound strength.

Chao, Luen-Yuan↗
NASA NTRS2015

Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

polar regions↗
NASA NTRS2004

GPS FOM Chimney Analysis using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Many a time an objective of a statistical analysis is to estimate a limit value like 3-sigma 95% confidence upper limit from a data sample. The generalized Extreme Value Distribution method can be profitably employed in many situations for such an estimate. . .. It is well known that according to the Central Limit theorem the mean value of a large data set is normally distributed irrespective of the distribution of the data from which the mean value is derived. In a somewhat similar fashion it is observed that many times the extreme value of a data set has a distribution that can be formulated with a Generalized Distribution. In space shuttle entry with 3-string GPS navigation the Figure Of Merit (FOM) value gives a measure of GPS navigated state accuracy. A GPS navigated state with FOM of 6 or higher is deemed unacceptable and is said to form a FOM 6 or higher chimney. A FOM chimney is a period of time during which the FOM value stays higher than 5. A longer period of FOM of value 6 or higher causes navigated state to accumulate more error for a lack of state update. For an acceptable landing it is imperative that the state error remains low and hence at low altitude during entry GPS data of FOM greater than 5 must not last more than 138 seconds. I To test the GPS performAnce many entry test cases were simulated at the Avionics Development Laboratory. Only high value FoM chimneys are consequential. The extreme value statistical technique is applied to analyze high value FOM chimneys. The Maximum likelihood method is used to determine parameters that characterize the GEV distribution, and then the limit value statistics are estimated.

Ott, Rick↗
NASA NTRS2013

Systems and methods for circuit lifetime evaluation

Systems and methods for estimating the lifetime of an electrical system in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes iteratively performing Worst Case Analysis (WCA) on a system design with respect to different system lifetimes using a computer to determine the lifetime at which the worst case performance of the system indicates the system will pass with zero margin or fail within a predetermined margin for error given the environment experienced by the system during its lifetime. In addition, performing WCA on a system with respect to a specific system lifetime includes identifying subcircuits within the system, performing Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) with respect to each subcircuit to determine whether the subcircuit fails EVA for the specific system lifetime, when the subcircuit passes EVA, determining that the subcircuit does not fail WCA for the specified system lifetime, when a subcircuit fails EVA performing at least one additional WCA process that provides a tighter bound on the WCA than EVA to determine whether the subcircuit fails WCA for the specified system lifetime, determining that the system passes WCA with respect to the specific system lifetime when all subcircuits pass WCA, and determining that the system fails WCA when at least one subcircuit fails WCA.

Heaps, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using the VAHIRR Radar Algorithm to Investigate Lightning Cessation

Accurately determining the threat posed by lightning is a major area for improved operational forecasts. Most efforts have focused on the initiation of lightning within a storm, with far less effort spent investigating lightning cessation. Understanding both components, initiation and cessation, are vital to improving lightning safety. Few organizations actively forecast lightning onset or cessation. One such organization is the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45WS has identified that charged anvil clouds remain a major threat of continued lightning and can greatly extend the window of a potential lightning strike. Furthermore, no discernable trend of total lightning activity has been observed consistently for all storms. This highlights the need for more research to find a robust method of knowing when a storm will cease producing lightning. Previous lightning cessation work has primarily focused on forecasting the cessation of cloud-to -ground lightning only. A more recent, statistical study involved total lightning (both cloud-to-ground and intracloud). Each of these previous works has helped the 45WS take steps forward in creating improved and ultimately safer lightning cessation forecasts. Each study has either relied on radar data or recommended increased use of radar data to improve cessation forecasts. The reasoning is that radar data is able to either directly or by proxy infer more about dynamical environment leading to cloud electrification and eventually lightning cessation. The authors of this project are focusing on a two ]step approach to better incorporate radar data and total lightning to improve cessation forecasts. This project will utilize the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) algorithm originally developed during the Airborne Field Mill II (ABFM II) research project. During the project, the VAHIRR product showed a trend of increasing values with increases in the electric field magnitude above 3 kV/m. An extreme value analysis showed that VAHIRR values less than or equal to 10 dBZ-km showed that the probability of having an electric field magnitude larger than 3 kV/m was less than one in ten thousand. VAHIRR also was found to be sensitive at indicating anvil clouds that posed a threat of initiating a lightning flash. This project seeks to use VAHIRR to analyze its utility as a lightning cessation tool, particularly dealing with the threat posed by detached anvils. The results from this project will serve as a baseline effectiveness of radar ]based lightning cessation algorithms. This baseline will be used in the second, and concurrent work by the co ]author fs who are developing a lightning cessation algorithm based on dual ]polarimetric radar data. Ultimately, an accurate method for identifying lightning cessation can save money on lost manpower time as well as greatly improve lightning safety.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

global warming↗
NASA NTRS1950

The application of the statistical theory of extreme values to gust-load problems

An analysis is presented which indicates that the statistical theory of extreme values is applicable to the problems of predicting the frequency of encountering the larger gust loads and gust velocities for both specific test conditions as well as commercial transport operations. The extreme-value theory provides an analytic form for the distributions of maximum values of gust load and velocity. Methods of fitting the distribution are given along with a method of estimating the reliability of the predictions. The theory of extreme values is applied to available load data from commercial transport operations. The results indicate that the estimates of the frequency of encountering the larger loads are more consistent with the data and more reliable than those obtained in previous analyses. (author)

Press, Harry↗
NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of extreme wind shear

New methods utilizing extreme value statistical theory are applied in the analysis of the largest wind component shear in a wind profile as a function of shear layer thickness and season. Seasonal variability of extreme shear decreases as the shear layer thickness decreases. Wind profile measurement system smoothing and its effect upon extreme wind shear statistics is simulated by application of digital low-pass filters to Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, Stanley I.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Ascent structural wind loads for the National Space Transportation System (NSTS)

An aerospace vehicle must withstand the design ascent structural load or be within any flight constraint to safely reach orbit. For the NSTS an assessment for flight readiness is made for each mission. This assessment for ascent loads and performance parameters is stated in terms of launch probability derived from samples of Jimsphere wind profiles. For the day of launch operations an allowance is made for the ascent load variability due to the wind profile variability over a 3.5-hour period. This is the current time period required to obtain a Jimsphere measurement and perform a complete load simulation prior to launch time. The load variability is derived from a sample of 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind profile pairs. It is applied as a conditional percentile value given the wind load at 3.5 hours prior to launch time. Probability models are used for these analyses. Application of the univariate, bivariate and conditional forms of the extreme value (Gumbel) probability distribution to the analysis of extreme wind speeds, wind shears and vehicle loads is described.

Smith, O. E.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Regression Bias in using Solar Wind Measurements

Simultaneous solar wind measurements from the solar wind monitors, WIND and ACE, differ due to the spatial and temporal structure of the solar wind. Correlation studies that use these measurements as input may infer an incorrect correlation due to uncertainties arising from this spatial and temporal structure, especially at extreme and rare solar wind values. In particular, regression analysis will lead to a regression function whose slope is biased towards the mean value of the measurement parameter. This article demonstrates this regression bias by comparing simultaneous ACE and WIND solar wind measurements. A non-linear regression analysis between them leads to a perception of underestimation of extreme values of one measurement on average over the other. Using numerical experiments, we show that popular regression analysis techniques such as linear least-squares, orthogonal least-squares, and non-linear regression are not immune to this bias. Hence while using solar wind parameters as an independent variable in a correlation or regression analysis, random uncertainty in the independent variable can create unintended biases in the response of the dependent variable. More generally, the regression to the mean effect can impact both event-based, statistical studies of magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing.

magnetosphere↗
NASA NTRS1988

Winds aloft statistical analysis in support of day of launch Shuttle systems evaluation

In connection with the development of the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) for utilization by the Launch Systems Evaluation Advisory Team (LSEAT), requirements have been established to expand the pre-launch analysis of winds aloft for the Space Shuttle. Statistical analyses developed for the system include: comparison of pre-launch wind component profiles to wind component extremes at each altitude calculated from launch site historical data; conditional probability ellipses for wind vectors at a future time given the wind vector at an initial time; comparison of observed extreme wind shear and associated wind speed with launch site historical data utilizing the bivariate extreme value (Gumbel) distribution; estimation of extremes of wind speed or wind shear at a future time given the extremes of either variable at an initial time, utilizing the conditional extreme value distribution; power spectrum analysis for tracking wind perturbation energy in sequential pre-launch Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

Fischer, Gerd M.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Estimating maximum instantaneous distortion from inlet total pressure rms and PSD measurements

An inexpensive method is developed to determine the extreme values of instantaneous inlet distortion. This method also provides insight into the basic mechanics of unsteady inlet flow and the associated engine reaction. The analysis is based on fundamental fluid dynamics and statistical methods to provide an understanding of the turbulent inlet flow and quantitatively relate the rms level and power spectral density (PSD) function of the measured time variant total pressure fluctuations to the strength and size of the low pressure regions. The most probable extreme value of the instantaneous distortion is then synthesized from this information in conjunction with the steady state distortion. Results of the analysis show the extreme values to be dependent upon the steady state distortion, the measured turbulence rms level and PSD function, the time on point, and the engine response characteristics. Analytical projections of instantaneous distortion are presented and compared with data obtained by a conventional, highly time correlated, 40 probe instantaneous pressure measurement system.

Melick, H. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A study of environmental characterization of conventional and advanced aluminum alloys for selection and design. Phase 2: The breaking load test method

A technique is demonstrated for accelerated stress corrosion testing of high strength aluminum alloys. The method offers better precision and shorter exposure times than traditional pass fail procedures. The approach uses data from tension tests performed on replicate groups of smooth specimens after various lengths of exposure to static stress. The breaking strength measures degradation in the test specimen load carrying ability due to the environmental attack. Analysis of breaking load data by extreme value statistics enables the calculation of survival probabilities and a statistically defined threshold stress applicable to the specific test conditions. A fracture mechanics model is given which quantifies depth of attack in the stress corroded specimen by an effective flaw size calculated from the breaking stress and the material strength and fracture toughness properties. Comparisons are made with experimental results from three tempers of 7075 alloy plate tested by the breaking load method and by traditional tests of statistically loaded smooth tension bars and conventional precracked specimens.

Sprowls, D. O.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Comparison of Extreme Value Distributions for Electrostatic Discharge Magnitudes in Spacecraft Charging Tests

Electrostatic Discharge (ESD) induced by the accumulation of charge in the space environment is known to cause spacecraft anomalies and failures. While it is critical to estimate the worst-case expected ESD, sensitive radar instruments can be impacted by high rates of occurrence of very small ESD. To estimate the correct extreme behavior, it is important to select the correct extreme value distribution for extrapolation of test results limited in time and sensitivity. Quantile-quantile (Q-Q) analysis is used to compare electron beam-induced ESD test data to several statistical distributions used in the published literature. The best-fit distribution is shown to vary from between tests on different materials; however, it is clear that power law distributions are not good approximations for low amplitude events. Q-Q analysis is a convenient graphical method for evaluating multiple theoretical extreme-value distributions simultaneously.

Kim, Wousik↗
NASA NTRS1980

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Sidik, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Matrix Perturbation Techniques in Structural Dynamics

Matrix perturbation are developed techniques which can be used in the dynamical analysis of structures where the range of numerical values in the matrices extreme or where the nature of the damping matrix requires that complex valued eigenvalues and eigenvectors be used. The techniques can be advantageously used in a variety of fields such as earthquake engineering, ocean engineering, aerospace engineering and other fields concerned with the dynamical analysis of large complex structures or systems of second order differential equations. A number of simple examples are included to illustrate the techniques.

Caughey, T. K.↗