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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1∕8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

extreme climate index↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applied Uses of MERRA Reanalyses: Current and Future Prospects

During the initial planning of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the project was envisioned to become a tool for applied sciences and decision makers, as well as weather and climate research. MERRA was the first reanalysis to provide data at 1 hourly frequencies. After discussions with wind energy users, 50m above the surface winds were included in the data collection to begin to represent the environment at the turbine height. MERRA-2 was the first reanalysis to include interactive and assimilated aerosols. From these, PM 1, 2.5 and 10 records have been computed and contribute to the climate and health sector. The US Center for Disease Control is accessing MERRA-2 data for comparison along with their health data. MERRA-2 Extreme Indices have been computed from the high frequency data (e.g. precipitation maxima, heat waves and fire weather). These have been used to characterize the changing extremes in the United States and around the globe as well as the weather associated with the extremes. The next-generation, MERRA-21C, includes increased resolution (25km) and continues to provide innovative Earth system data. For example, a boundary layer collection will provide constant height level data starting at 100m, continuing up to 4000m. This will provide detailed information about the boundary layer processes that greatly affect the biosphere. Chemical tracers for constituents are included in the system. The ensemble data assimilation is run with 32 members, and the variance for critical variables are stored. We will explore the use of this variance as one measure of uncertainty relevant for applied uses, which has not been included in any MERRA reanalysis. We will discuss use case scenarios developed to engage with the energy and financial sectors, to better understand their needs for climate data. Prospects for further downscaling of reanalyses will also be explored.

Michael Bosilovich↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dynamics of exploding magma chambers: Implications for K-T volcanism and mass extinctions

Although it is well known that unconfined chemical explosives may yield pressures to several megabars on detonation in air, the explosive literature has yet to be accessed by some contributors to the volcanological literature who've indicated that pressures in excess of the overburden and/or tensile cannot be obtained. Idealized ballistic assessments of pressures internal to volcanoes yield pressures in the hundreds of kilobar range upon correction by addition of friction, etc. Previous assessments of exploding magma chamber pressure have been made from the characteristics of the Mt. St. Helens explosion. A variety of methods yield pressures of similar value: at least hundreds of kilobars. Such results are consistent with free energy requirements for quench supersaturation explosion, a process occurring in solidifying industrial melts. Several reviews of geochemical literature emphasize the carbon event at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary as being an indicator of a massive dump of CO2 derived from the mantle and entering the atmosphere by extensive global volcanism. Oxygen isotope data indicates extreme warming at the end of the Cretaceous which is consistent with a greenhouse effect attending the CO2 event. Reaction rate equations for the quench supersaturation explosion mechanism indicated, are consistent with the rise in pressure to 30 kbar on solidification of magmatic melts, these pressures limited by the strength of the experimental apparatus.

Rice, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗
NASA NTRS1965

Ground testing at MSFC

The large-scale field collection of acoustic data and their analysis are described in this review. The entire sound-field program has the purpose of solving complex problems of excessive noise propagation associated with the static test firing of large space-booster powerplants. The site of data collection has been Mississippi Test Facility (MTF), where far-field sound-propagation and correlated meteorological measurements were initiated in 1962. The statistical evaluation of sound-measurement data shows that the polar distribution of sound in the springtime (at MTF) is determined mainly by the temperature field of the atmosphere. Greater deformation of sound-intensity polar distribution occurs in the autumn as a result of the influence of the wind field. The data on sound attenuation as a function of distance from its source revealed attenuation in excess of the expected magnitude. The excess was mainly between 1 and 10 kilometers from the source, with maximum attenuation (17 to 18 decibels) near 6 kilometers. Excess sound attenuation was compared with calculated sound dispersion. For all sound frequencies in all seasons the deviation between reference and empirical attenuation values formed a bell-shaped distribution on a semilogarithmic plot. The physical causes for the sound- attenuation behavior are considered to be atmospheric diffraction and scattering effects. Statistical analysis of sod-intensity extremes indicated amplification of the sound signals by focusing which could be expected along selected azimuths. Empirical amplification values showed the maximum occurring in winter (50 decibels at 22 kilometers). For the analysis of correlation between empirical sound data and local atmospheric sound- propagation conditions, #e concept of analytical classification of sound-velocity profiles has been developed. Examination of over a quarter-million individual sound-velocity profiles indicates that 33 profile types for heights up to 3 kilometers constitute the empirical possibilities of sound-propagation conditions in southeastern United States. Since the focusing qualities of each sound- velocity profile can be determined as a class characteristic, the overall probabilities of focusing occurrence can he obtained. The severity of focusing, as based upon lateral spread of focusing areas, has been determined. The data for MTF indicate focusing is most severe in winter, with the direction toward east being most affected. Sound propagation is a fluctuating phenomenon because atmospheric conditions vary continuously. A measuring system for analyzing the nonstationary sound-propagation phenomena has been established. The analysis of the acoustic fluctuation data is sup- posed to provide "dynamic” perturbation functions of sound, which are to be superimposed on the related characteristic sound-velocity-profile type. The ultimate result of the program will be the establishment of reliable contingency tables showing the relationship between atmospheric parameters and far-field sound intensities. These data will be the basis for more accurate sound-propagation forecasting for static firing tests.

STATIC TESTING↗
NASA NTRS1976

Surface slope probabilities from the spectra of weak radar echoes - Application to Mars

A method is described for stabilizing the inversion of the power spectra of comparatively weak radar echoes from Mars. It is noted that such stabilization is necessary for echoes with S/N power-spectral densities of order unity as well as for those with broad spectral distributions. The method is applied to the Martian surface, using two data sets obtained with radars of approximately 12.5-cm wavelength. The resulting slope probabilities are interpreted in terms of diffuse and quasi-specular scatter, and values of rms slope are calculated. The results for a sample of Martian locations clearly indicate extreme variations in the local nature of the surface and yield evidence for an apparent planetwide distribution of roughness that may be due to extreme slopes, surface or subsurface rock populations, or a combination of these.

Lipa, B.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Mechanical properties of several nickel alloys in hydrogen at elevated temperatures

Tests were performed to determine low cycle fatigue and crack growth rate properties of one iron-base and two forms of one cast nickel-base alloy. The alloys were tested in various forms and/or heat-treat conditions that are proposed for use in a high-pressure hydrogen or a hydrogen-water vapor environment. Some general conclusions can be made comparing the results of tests in a hydrogen environment with those in a hydrogen-water vapor environment. The hydrogen-water vapor environment caused a 50 percent average reduction in fatigue life, indicating extreme degradation when compared with tests conducted in air, for Incoloy 903 at 1033 K (1400 F). Crack growth rates increased significantly for all materials with increasing test temperature. A very significant increase (three orders of magnitude) in crack growth rate occurred for Incoloy 903 tested in the hydrogen-water vapor environment when compared with testing done in hydrogen along at 922 K (1200 F).

Warren, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Design, fabrication and testing of porous tungsten vaporizers for mercury ion thrusters

The dispersions in the characteristics, performance and reliability of vaporizers for early model 30-cm thrusters were investigated. The purpose of the paper is to explore the findings and to discuss the approaches that were taken to reduce the observed dispersion and present the results of a program which validated those approaches. The information that is presented includes porous tungsten materials specifications, a discussion of assembly procedures, and a description of a test program which screens both material and fabrication processes. There are five appendices providing additional detail in the areas of vaporizer contamination, nitrogen flow testing, bubble testing, porosimeter testing, and mercury purity. Four neutralizers, seven cathodes and five main vaporizers were successfully fabricated, tested, and operated on thrusters. Performance data from those devices is presented and indicates extremely repeatable results from using the design and fabrication procedures.

Zavesky, R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Conjecture about a hurricane system in the Jovian atmosphere

Arguments are presented in support of the hypothesis that the Great Red Spot (GRS) of Jupiter is a giant hurricane, and that the same decription might apply to the smaller vortices such as the white and brown ovals (barges) on the surface of Jupiter. Estimates of the spin-down times constants for the white and brown oval vortices, indicate that the motions must be sustained by the continued release of internal energy. In analogy with the CISK mechanism for terrestrial hurricanes, transport of water vapor is identified as a possible latent energy source. On the basis of the large size and long life time of the GRS, (indicating extreme depth), it is suggested that the hurricane GRS hurricane may have been induced by meteor impact. Voyager 1 images of the GRS are provided.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Oscillating airfoil velocity field during large amplitude dynamic stall

The leading edge flowfield of an airfoil executing a sinusoidal oscillatory motion and experiencing dynamic stall under compressibility conditions has been studied using a two component LDV system. Phase averaged mean velocity measurements and some flow quantities derived from it are presented and discussed. The results indicate extremely large accelerations of the flow are present around the leading edge with mean velocity values 60 percent higher than and instantaneous velocities as large as 1.75 times the free stream velocity. The velocity profiles at certain locations over the airfoil resemble that of a wake.

Chandrasekhara, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Evaluation of a Neural Adaptive Flight Controller

The objective of this paper is to present results from the evaluation of a direct adaptive tracking controller. The control architecture employs both pre-trained and an on-line neural networks to represent the non-linear aircraft dynamics in the model inversion portion of the controller. The aircraft model used for this evaluation is representative of the F-15 Advanced Control Technology for Integrated Vehicles (ACTIVE) aircraft. The controller was evaluated for three cases: (1) nominal conditions; (2) loss of control power; and (3) loss of control power in the presence of atmospheric turbulence. The results were compared with the existing F-15 ACTIVE conventional mode controller in all cases. The results indicate extremely desirable airframe stabilization characteristics for case (1) that do not degrade significantly for case (2) or (3) as does the conventional mode controller. It was concluded that this controller exhibits both stable and robust adaptive characteristics when subjected to mild and extreme loss of control power conditions. Integration of this neural adaptive flight controller into the full non-linear six degree-of-freedom F-15 ACTIVE simulation is recommended for evaluation in a real-time high fidelity piloted simulation environment.

Totah, Joseph J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Phoenix - the First Mars Scout Mission

As the first of the new Mars Scouts missions, the Phoenix project was selected by NASA in August of 2003. Four years later, almost to the day, Phoenix was launched from Cape Canaveral Air Station and successfully injected into an interplanetary trajectory on its way to Mars. This paper will highlight some of the key changes since the 2006 IEEE paper of the same name, as well as activities, challenges and problems encountered on the way to the launch pad. Phoenix Follows the water responding directly to the recently published data from Dr. William Boynton, PI (and Phoenix co-I) of the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS). GRS data indicate extremely large quantities of water ice (up to 50% by mass) within the upper 50 cm of the northern polar regolith. Phoenix will land within the north polar region at 68.2 N, 233.4 W identified by GRS to harbor near surface water ice and provide in-situ confirmation of this extraordinary find. Our mission will investigate water in all its phases, and will investigate the history of water as evidenced in the soil characteristics that will be carefully examined by the powerful suite of onboard instrumentation. Access to the critical subsurface region expected to contain this information is made possible by a third generation robotic arm capable of excavating the expected Martian regolith to a depth of 1m. Phoenix has four primary science objectives: 1) Determine the polar climate and weather, interaction with the surface, and composition of the lower atmosphere around 70 N for at least 90 sols focusing on water, ice, dust, noble gases, and CO2. Determine the atmospheric characteristics during descent through the atmosphere. 2) Characterize the geomorphology and active processes shaping the northern plains and the physical properties of the near surface regolith focusing on the role of water. 3) Determine the aqueous mineralogy and chemistry as well as the adsorbed gases and organic content of the regolith. Verify the Odyssey discovery of near-surface ice. 4) Characterize the history of water, ice, and the polar 1 1-4244-1488-1/08/$25.00 2008 IEEE 2 IEEEAC paper#1579, Version 1, Updated 2008:01:09 climate. Determine the past and present biological potential of the surface and subsurface environments.

Mars exploration↗
NASA NTRS2002

Extreme Lightning Flash Rates as an Early Indicator of Severe Storms

Extreme lightning flash rates are proving to be an early indicator of intensifying storms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. Most of this lightning is in the cloud, where the naked eye can not see it. Recent global observations of thunderstorms from space indicate that giant electrical storms (supercells and convective complexes) with flash rates on the order of 1 flash per second are most common over the land masses of the America sub-tropics and equatorial Congo Basin. Within the United States, the average tornado warning lead time on a national basis is about 11 min. The real-time observation of extreme flash rates and the rapid increase in the in-cloud flash rate, signalling the intensification of the storm updraft, may provide as much as a 50% increase in severe storm warning lead time.

Goodman, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Data Science for Weather Impacts on Crop Yield

Private businesses in sectors, such as food, energy, and retail, as well as public sector and federal agencies are interested in the predictive understanding of weather impacts on crop yield, which is an important aspect of food security. Scientific literature has mainly examined how crop yield is impacted by growing season-averaged weather indices. Although a few studies did consider weather extremes in their analysis, their scope was either restricted to measuring their conditional relationship with yield or the extreme event types considered were limited. Selection of regression models, whether the more commonly used linear approaches or nonlinear methods, have not been appropriately justified in this context. Here, we develop data-driven methods to examine two inter-related hypotheses for improved scientific understanding and enhanced predictive modeling. The first hypothesis, that extreme weather indices have a statistically significant information content in them is found to be valid based on linear and nonlinear methods for pairwise dependence. The second hypothesis, examines the value addition of nonlinear regression methods, and suggests that linear approaches may not alone be adequate. The results of this study can inform scientific understanding, generation and relevance of indices and end-to-end risk assessment systems in the context of climate impacts on crop yield. An immediate application may be in the context of NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) which facilitates the generation and dissemination of impacts relevant weather data and indices using a multitude of satellite-derived data sets and model outputs.

Data mining, food security, weather impacts↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evolvable, reconfigurable hardware for future space systems

This paper overviews Evolvable Hardware (EHW) technology, examining its potential for enhancing survivability and flexibility of future space systems. EHW refers to selfconfiguration of electronic hardware by evolutionary/genetic search mechanisms. Evolvable Hardware can maintain existing functionality in the presence of faults and degradations due to aging, temperature and radiation. It can also configure itself for new functionality when required for mission changes or encountered opportunities. The paper illustrates hardware evolution in silicon using a JPL-designed programmable device reconfigurable at transistor level as the platform and a genetic algorithm running on a DSP as the reconfiguration mechanism. Rapid reconfiguration allows convergence to circuit solutions in the order of seconds. The experiments demonstrate functional recovery from faults as well as from degradation at extreme temperatures indicating the possibility of expanding the operational range of extreme electronics through evolved circuit solutions.

Evolvable Hardware EHW↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating and Exploring Extreme Precipitation in CHIRPS3, CHIMES, and the Climate Hazards Station Database

Between 2015 and 2019, the impacts and losses associated with droughts, floods, and hurricanes surged through the interaction of increasing exposure and more extreme weather and climate (Funk 2021). In 2020, the Aon-Benfield Reinsurance Company reported that cyclones, floods, and droughts resulted in $165 billion (USD) in losses. For 2020, EM-DAT lists 363 flood, landslide, storm, and drought events impacting some 98 million people. As hazards mount, models indicate more variable precipitation, and observations indicate increasing extremes in humid regions, yet the small number of available gauge observations is declining. In this talk we briefly introduce two new resources: version 3 of the 1981-near present Climate Hazards center Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS3) archive, and the 2000-near present Climate Hazards IMErg with Stations archive (CHIMES). The satellite-only CHIRP3 and CHIME components are based, respectively, on geostationary thermal infrared Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) values and the NASA GPM IMERGlate product. These archives benefit from thousands of station observations. In addition to standard global sources, the Climate Hazards station database includes about 5,000 additional stations in humid tropical and sub-tropical areas associated with likely increases in extreme rainfall. While effectively monitoring extreme precipitation is important to humanitarian agencies like FEWS NET, and to hydrologic modeling applications (a, b), evaluations of the widely used CHIRPS2 product indicate a propensity to underestimate extremes. Here, we explain the source of this problem. Then, focusing on pentad totals in 12 well-gauged regions, we use the high-quality gauge-based REGEN dataset to show that CHIRP3 and CHIME perform substantially better than CHIRP2. We examine trends in extremes in these validation regions, comparing REGEN results with values from the satellite-only CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME and the gauge-enhanced CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME. Trends in dry and humid regions are contrasted and compared. We conclude with global evaluations of the pentad CHIRP3, CHIRPS3, CHIME, CHIMES, and Climate Hazards station database products. How does the performance of the shorter period of record CHIME compare with CHIRP3? We anticipate that the sophisticated microwave-based IMERGlate inputs into CHIME will perform better. Where do we see the largest increases in extremes in these products? How well might CHIRPS3 and CHIMES perform in the context of humanitarian assistance efforts?

C Funk↗
NASA NTRS1976

Radar characteristics of Viking 1 landing sites

Radar observations of Mars at centimeter wavelengths in May, June, and July 1976 provided estimates of surface roughness and reflectivity in three potential landing areas for Viking 1. Surface roughness is characterized by the distribution of surface landing slopes or tilts on lateral scales of the order of 1 to 10 meters; measurements of surface reflectivity are indicators of bulk surface density in the uppermost few centimeters. By these measures, the landing site at 47.5 deg W, 22.4 deg N is rougher than the Martian average, although it may be near the average for elevations accessible to Viking, and is estimated to be near the Mars average in reflectivity. The site at the center of Chryse Planitia, 43.5 deg W, 23.4 deg N, may be an area of anomalous radar characteristics, indicative of extreme, small-scale roughness, very low surface density, or a combination of these two characteristics. Observations of the original Chryse site at 34 deg W, 19.5 deg N indicate that that area is at least twice as rough as the Mars average.

Tyler, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Towards Simulating a Realistic Planetary Seismic Wavefield: The Contribution of the Megaregolith and Low-Velocity Waveguides

Lunar seismograms are distinctly different from their terrestrial counterparts. The Apollo lunar seismometers recorded moonquakes without distinct P- or S-wave arrivals; instead waves arrive as a diffuse coda that decays over several hours making the identification of body waves difficult. The unusual character of the lunar seismic wavefield is generally tied to properties of the megaregolith: it consists of highly fractured and broken crustal rock, the result of extensive bombardment of the Moon. The megaregolith extends several kilometers into the lunar crust, possibly into the mantle in some regions, and is covered by a thin coating of fine-scale dust. These materials possess very low seismic velocities that strongly scatter the seismic wavefield at high frequencies. Directly modeling the effects of the megaregolith to simulate an accurate lunar seismic wavefield is a challenging computational problem, owing to the inherent 3-D nature of the problem and the high frequencies (greater than 1 Hz) required. Here we focus on modeling the long duration code, studying the effects of the low velocities found in the megaregolith. We produce synthetic seismograms using 1-D slowness integration methodologies, GEMINI and reflectivity, and a 3-D Cartesian finite difference code, Wave Propagation Program, to study the effect of thin layers of low velocity on the surface of a planet. These codes allow us generate seismograms with dominant frequencies of approximately 1 Hz. For background lunar seismic structure we explore several models, including the recent model of Weber et al., Science, 2011. We also investigate variations in megaregolithic thickness, velocity, attenuation, and seismogram frequency content. Our results are compared to the Apollo seismic dataset, using both a cross correlation technique and integrated envelope approach to investigate coda decay. We find our new high frequency results strongly support the hypothesis that the long duration of the lunar seismic codes is generated by the presence of the low velocity megaregolith, and that the diffuse arrivals are a combination of scattered energy and multiple reverberations within this layer. The 3-D modeling indicates the extreme surface topography of the Moon adds only a small contribution to scattering effects, though local geology may play a larger role. We also study the effects of the megaregolith on core reflected and converted phases and other body waves. Our analysis indicates detection of core interacting arrivals with a polarization filter technique is robust and lends the possibility of detecting other body waves from the Moon.

Schmerr, Nicholas C.↗