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DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Spatial Resolution in a High-Fidelity Capacity Expansion Model: An ERCOT Case Study

Capacity expansion models are important tools in examining the evolution of the electric power sector. Embedded in these tools are many modeling choices with consequential impacts on computational burden and associated analysis. In this study, we adjust the spatial resolution of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to understand the implications of higher-fidelity modeling on energy system projections and model solve times. The native ReEDS regions capture the contiguous United States in 134 balancing areas whereas the regions in the higher-resolution version are defined by over 3,000 U.S. counties. Using both resolutions, we conduct a case study of the Texas Interconnection (The Electric Reliability Council of Texas [ERCOT]) to explore differences in model projections and to inform appropriate applications of high spatial resolution in a large-scale, applied capacity expansion model.

county↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atomistic Simulations of Thermal and Chemical Expansions of PrNi x Co 1‐x O 3‐δ Accelerated by Machine Learning Potentials

The electrodes and solid-state electrolytes in protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCECs) experience significant lattice expansions when exposed to high steam concentrations at elevated temperatures. In this paper, phonon calculations based on a new machine learning potential (MLP) are employed to elucidate the volume expansions of the proton-conducting PrNi x Co 1-x O 3-δ (PNC) lattices, manifested under a combined influence of oxygen vacancies (V$^{\cdot\cdot}_O$ ) and proton uptake (OH$^{\cdot}_O$ ) in the bulk at varying Ni/Co occupancies. It is revealed that the Ni/Co occupancy contributes to thermal and chemical expansions differently, where thermal expansions are related to Co occupancy. In contrast, chemical expansions are more closely associated with the Ni occupancy. Both V$^{\cdot\cdot}_O$ and OH$^{\cdot}_O$ lead to higher thermal expansions when compared to the pristine PNC. The temperature increase will negatively impact the hydration-induced chemical expansions. For combined thermal and chemical expansions, it is predicted that the strategies that boost the PCEC's electrochemical performance may harm the electrode–electrolyte interfacial stability, when the Ni occupancy is high, due to severe chemical expansions. Mitigating chemical expansions of the Ni-abundant PNC will benefit the interfacial stability. Finally, the presented computational methods for phonon calculations, based on emerging machine learning interatomic potential techniques are anticipated to have a lasting impact on future PCEC development.

computational prediction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shrub Expansion Can Counteract Carbon Losses From Warming Tundra

Arctic warming is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and tree-line expansion and densification. However, predicting the carbon trajectories of the changing Arctic is challenging due to interacting feedbacks between vegetation composition and structure, and surface characteristics. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the current-date to 2100 projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and CO 2 fluxes to different shrub expansion rates under future emission scenarios (intermediate—RCP4.5, and high—RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused configuration of E3SM Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), an upland tundra site in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing shrub densification and expansion. We find that shrub expansion did not significantly alter the modeled surface energy and water budgets. However, the carbon balance was sensitive to shrub expansion, which drove higher rates of carbon sequestration as a consequence of higher shrubification rates. Thus, at low shrub expansion rates, the site would become a carbon source, especially under RCP8.5, due to higher temperatures, which deepen the active layer and enhance soil respiration. At higher shrub expansion rates, TVC would become a net CO 2 sink under both Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios due to higher shrub productivity outweighing temperature-driven respiration increase. Our simulations highlight the effect of shrub expansion on Arctic ecosystem carbon fluxes and stocks. We predict that at TVC, shrubification rate would interact with climate change intensity to determine whether the site would become a carbon sink or source under projected future climate.

Yazbeck, Theresia [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pion-nucleon scattering in baryon chiral perturbation theory combined with the 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansion

This work implements the combined baryon chiral perturbation theory (BChPT) and 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansions for pion-nucleon elastic scattering. The effective theory is based on the baryon sector dynamical spin-flavor 𝑆⁢𝑈⁡(4) symmetry emergent in the large 𝑁 𝑐 limit, whose breaking is controlled by the 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansion. The noncommutativity of the chiral and 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansions in unitarity corrections (loops) requires a linking of both expansions. As it was shown in the case of baryon masses and currents, the natural linking is the 𝜉 expansion, in which 𝒪⁡(𝑝) = 𝒪⁡(1/𝑁 𝑐 ) = 𝒪⁡(𝜉). The spin-flavor symmetry requires that the ground state baryons span an 𝑆⁢𝑈⁡(4) symmetric irreducible representation which implies that in particular 𝑁 and Δ are active degrees of freedom in the effective theory. The scattering amplitude is expanded to the next-to-next-to leading order in the 𝜉 expansion, corresponding to the one-loop contributions with the leading-order Lagrangian. The results are given for generic 𝑁 𝑐 in order to demonstrate the consistency of the framework. The spin-flavor symmetry plays a central role in maintaining the consistency of the effective theory with respect to the 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansion. This consistency manifests itself in an improvement in the convergence of the low energy expansion with respect to the case of the ordinary BChPT without an explicit dynamical Δ, which is known to be inconsistent with the constraints of 𝑁 𝑐 scaling. Fits to the 𝜋⁢𝑁 → 𝜋⁢𝑁, 𝑆, 𝑃, and 𝐷 partial wave amplitudes from the SAID data base are finally used to test the framework and to determine the energy range of its applicability.

Jayakodige, D. [Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA (United↗

DOE OSTI2026

Anomalous lattice expansion of bcc Ta in helium-loaded diamond anvil cells

Anomalous lattice expansion of bcc Ta is observed in helium-loaded diamond anvil cell (DAC) experiments near 6 GPa and above 400 K, while co-loaded W, Mo, and Au exhibit normal thermal expansion. The Ta volume expansion increases with temperature, reaching ~14% near 650 K before plateauing, and is largely retained after recovery to ambient conditions. Time-resolved measurements at 500 K reveal progressive expansion over several hours, consistent with gradual, thermally activated He incorporation. The largely retained expansion during subsequent cooling and holding at 400 K indicates that the incorporated He is predominantly kinetically trapped. The data reveal two distinct regimes: below ~550 K, modest and spatially uniform expansion consistent with interstitial He trapping at isolated, randomly distributed vacancies; above ~550 K, He-vacancy cluster growth producing dramatically larger expansion, peak broadening, and a core–shell microstructure revealed by micron-resolution X-ray diffraction mapping. These results demonstrate that He is not always a passive pressure medium in DAC experiments and reveal a previously unrecognized regime of He-mediated lattice modification in Ta, complementing conventional ion-implantation studies relevant to nuclear and fusion structural materials.

Diamond anvil cell↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-temperature structure, elasticity, and thermal expansion of ε-ZrH 1.8

Zirconium hydride is a promising candidate material for nuclear microreactor applications as a solid-state moderator component, owing to its favorable neutronics properties and good thermal stability over other metal hydrides. Here, in the present work, the crystal structure, thermal expansion, and elastic properties of the hydrogen-rich ε phase hydride were measured at elevated temperatures in the range 300–900 K. Samples were prepared by direct hydriding Zircaloy-4 metal – a nuclear-grade zirconium alloy. Room-temperature lattice parameters agree well with those reported from literature for unalloyed zirconium hydride and fall within an observed quadratic H-content dependence. The coefficients of thermal expansion, determined from lattice expansion and dilatometry, agree well within our work but were about 30 % lower than those reported by others for unalloyed hydrides. Density functional theory-based molecular dynamics simulations were used to compare with thermal expansion and elasticity measurements. Results showed lattice parameter temperature dependence and slope of thermal expansion align with those from measurements. Based on diffraction scans at select temperatures, ε phase remained stable in air up to at least 770 K. Likewise, dilatometry showed smooth thermal expansion up to the thermal decomposition temperature around 950 K. The precise decomposition temperature was not determined via diffraction due to sparse scanning. The complete elastic property measurements were gathered for ε-phase Ziracloy-4 hydride for the first time. Young's modulus was lower compared to the metal and δ hydride phases. High-temperature elasticity measurements were limited to <350 K due to acoustic dissipation effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Insights into the Thermal Expansion of Amorphous Polymers

Here, we investigated the thermal expansion of amorphous polystyrene (PS) and poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) homopolymers using the temperature dependence of spatial electron-density correlations. The strong and broad X-ray interference maxima arising from inter- and intramolecular correlation distances were distinct, maintaining their shape during the heating of the samples to 250 °C. Three maxima characteristic of electron density correlations between the backbones, substituents along the chain, and repeat-units were observed. A remarkable temperature dependence was identified in the largest correlation distances arising from the intermolecular interactions. Based on the temperature dependence of the correlation distances, the coefficients of molecular expansion were very close to the coefficients of thermal expansion. This study provides a simple yet accurate way to correlate macroscopic volume expansions with the molecular expansion obtained from wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lithium Growth on Alloying Substrates and Effect on Volumetric Expansion

The widespread implementation of next-generation Li metal anodes is limited, in part, due to the formation of dendritic and/or mossy electrodeposits during cycling. These morphologies can lead to battery failure due to the formation of short circuits and significant volumetric expansion at the anode. One strategy to control the electrodeposition of Li metal is to use lithiophilic materials at the anode. Here, we evaluate the impact of Ag and Au on the early stages of Li metal electrodeposition and cycling. The alloying substrates decrease the voltage for Li reduction and improve Li wetting/adhesion. We probe volumetric expansion directly through dilatometry measurements and find that the degree of volumetric expansion is less when lithium is cycled on an alloying substrate compared to a non-alloying substrate (Cu). Dilatometry experiments reveal that Au has the least amount of volumetric expansion and coin cell cycling experiments indicate that Ag yields more stable cycling compared to Au or Cu. The evaluation of in situ cross-sectional images of cycled coin cells shows that Ag has the lowest volumetric expansion in a coin cell format.

alloys↗

DOE OSTI2025

Classical eikonal from Magnus expansion

In a classical scattering problem, the classical eikonal is defined as the generator of the canonical transformation that maps in-states to out-states. It can be regarded as the classical limit of the log of the quantum S-matrix. In a classical analog of the Born approximation in quantum mechanics, the classical eikonal admits an expansion in oriented tree graphs, where oriented edges denote retarded/advanced worldline propagators. The Magnus expansion, which takes the log of a time-ordered exponential integral, offers an efficient method to compute the coefficients of the tree graphs to all orders. We exploit a Hopf algebra structure behind the Magnus expansion to develop a fast algorithm which can compute the tree coefficients up to the 12th order (over half a million trees) in less than an hour. In a relativistic setting, our methods can be applied to the post-Minkowskian (PM) expansion for gravitational binaries in the worldline formalism. We demonstrate the methods by computing the 3PM eikonal and find agreement with previous results based on amplitude methods. Importantly, the Magnus expansion yields a finite eikonal, while the naïve eikonal based on the time-symmetric propagator is infrared-divergent from 3PM on.

Black Holes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing Hydrogen-Bond Anharmonicity in Cocrystals with Colossal Thermal Expansion

Organic cocrystals with sizable anisotropic thermal expansion (TE) are attractive building blocks for thermally responsive soft actuators. Such materials often display intermolecular H-bonding, whose thermal strength fluctuations are frequently overlooked if displacements and/or conformational changes are visible during TE. In this work, we employed variable-temperature single-crystal synchrotron diffraction to investigate the linear expansion coefficients of two organic cocrystals, 1 and 2, which exhibit colossal thermal expansivity exceeding 140 MK –1 . Despite such pronounced TE, solid-state 2 H and 13 C NMR experiments show no evidence of fast internal reorientations or large-amplitude molecular displacement during expansion. Although nondirectional π–π stacking dominates the colossal TE, our results indicate that hydrogen bonds play a non-negligible role in the anisotropic response. Molecular dynamics simulations reveal a temperature-dependent broadening of H-bond length distributions, which arises from the increased thermal sampling of an anharmonic potential energy surface. Our data support an expansion mechanism based on cooperativity in π-π interactions, accompanied by thermal softening and fluctuation-driven stretching of directional hydrogen bonds in these molecular solids. This mechanism underscores the significance of directional interactions in organic cocrystals, which is a key factor in the design of organic thermoresponsive crystalline materials.

Hernández-Morales, Ernesto A. [Univ. Nacional Auto↗

DOE OSTI2024

Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion

Abstract One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km 2 each, or 400 km 2 in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases.

Abolt, C. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surviving nanoscale interfacial stability in extreme thermal expansion contrast Zn(CN) 2 -epoxy resin matrix composites

Here, we report the remarkable stability at the nanoscale matrix-filler interface in a series of overall low coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) zinc cyanide (ZC)/epoxy resin composites. These interfaces demonstrate the stability of highly contrasting materials. These composites are designed to optimize the properties of both materials: epoxy resins are valued for their high strength, superb chemical resistance, low dielectric properties, and adhesive abilities. ZC, a model flexible framework, exhibits negative thermal expansion (NTE) behavior and compensates for the epoxy resin’s detrimentally large thermal expansion values. Filled resins minimize the native 65 ppm/°C CTE values to 19 ppm/° C over a wide temperature range while maintaining linearity, yielding composites compatible with typical metal and ceramic substrates’—commonly bonded to the resin— 0–20 ppm/° C CTE values. Additionally, with significant intrinsic differences in the materials, we use wide-angle X-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy to elucidate thermal movement. The ZC/epoxy interface is surprisingly resilient over 1,000 cycles between -55° C and 75° C, extremes typical to aerospace applications. Further, we show that the resin viscosity remains less than 21 Pa*s at up to 30 vol% ZC, an important consideration for workability. We also discuss settling distribution, glass transition temperature, flexural strength, and longevity. All results point favorably towards practical implementation in low thermal expansion application needs: filling the gap in component design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Accelerated First-Principles Molecular Dynamics Explains Anomalous Lattice Thermal Expansion in BaZr 0.78 Y 0.22 O 3-δ

Fuel cells are a vital clean energy technology that converts chemical energy directly into electricity with high efficiency, making them a cornerstone of a sustainable energy future. Herein we investigate the thermal and chemical lattice expansion behavior of hydrated BaZr 0.78 Y 0.22 O 3-δ using machine learning-accelerated ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. Here, our results reproduce the experimentally observed non-monotonic and anomalous temperature dependence of lattice expansion, which we attribute to the competing effects of thermal expansion and dehydration—two mechanisms that influence the lattice expansion in opposite directions. The importance of this work lies in its detailed demonstration of how advanced computational techniques can accurately capture complex environmental effects, providing a valuable framework for modeling similar phenomena in a variety of material systems and applications.

Proton conducting fuel cell↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anharmonic phonons, thermal expansion, and nuclear quantum effects in Zn

The anharmonic behavior of phonons and thermal expansion of hexagonal zinc were studied from 15 to 690 K by inelastic neutron scattering (INS) and ab initio simulations. Phonon spectra were measured for Q-points covering the full Brillouin zone, giving the phonon density of states (DOS) and dispersions along high-symmetry directions. The dispersions were sharp at 15 K, but diffuse intensity was observed at energies above them. The dispersions broadened with temperature T and the diffuse intensity became stronger. This diffuse intensity appeared in all INS measurements and simulations, except for classical molecular dynamics at 15 K. The temperature-dependent effective potential (TDEP) method, which included the nuclear quantum effect from zero-point vibrational dynamics, was used to calculate the free energy and thermal expansion. For T < 100 K nuclear quantum effects were important for obtaining the correct negative thermal expansion, and path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) was particularly effective for obtaining the negative thermal expansion in the basal plane. A Heisenberg-Langevin model for interacting phonons coupled to a thermal bath was able to reproduce the shape and intensity of the diffuse spectral features.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating system responses to electric vehicle charging infrastructure expansion through data-driven simulation

Understanding the system responses to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure expansion, including vehicle charging needs, station utilization, and energy consumption, is critical for effective planning to meet growing charging demand without unnecessary resource investment. This study evaluates the system responses to EV charging infrastructure expansion, focusing on charging needs, station utilization, and energy consumption. Using trip data from the National Household Travel Survey and origin–destination patterns, we simulated trip chains in downtown Atlanta with 10 % EV penetration. We assessed 32 scenarios involving different charging port power levels and siting strategies. Furthermore, we found that higher-power ports were more sensitive to placement, with concentrated expansion boosting station utilization more than uniform expansion. Adding high-power ports did not always increase peak energy consumption; in some cases, a few 400 kW ports reduced overall consumption compared to 150 kW ports by enabling faster charging and higher vehicle turnover.

Electric vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2026

Particle production by time-varying dark energy and the end of cosmic expansion

We consider various possible consequences of time-varying dark energy due to a quintessence scalar field whose energy density is partially converted to particles as the field evolves down its potential. This particle production acts as a source of thermal friction on the field that can make it difficult to distinguish whether dark energy is due to a radiating field rolling down a steep potential, a purely self-interacting field moving down a flatter potential, or a cosmological constant. By reducing the acceleration of the scalar field, thermal friction increases the amount of accelerated expansion and can cause a sizable bump in the quintessence equation of state. We take special interest in the case where a steep potential rapidly changes from positive to negative as the field evolves, resulting in the end of cosmic expansion and the beginning of contraction. Even in this case, we find that thermal friction lengthens the period of accelerated expansion and consequently delays the end of cosmic expansion, making it challenging to detect the impending transition to contraction using conventional cosmological tests. However, particle production can also provide alternative avenues for detection by generating a background of thermal dark radiation, partly comprised of neutrinos or other particles, whose energy density exceeds the remnant photon energy density.

cosmological neutrinos↗

DOE OSTI2026

Will cities keep getting hotter? The interplay of urban expansion and greening reshapes future urban heat trajectories

Urban heat islands (UHIs) pose growing risks to public health, infrastructure, and resilience. While often assumed to intensify with urban growth, dynamic changes in urban expansion and vegetation greenness complicate UHI trajectories, which remain poorly understood. This study investigated the interplay of urban expansion and greenness change on UHI spatial profile across 36 Chinese megacities during 2003–2018 using multiple satellite products. We introduce a framework that classifies urban areas into four dynamic development pathways based on impervious surface area (ISA) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) trends: urbanized-greening, urbanized-browning, urbanizing-greening (UingG), and urbanizing-browning (UingB). While most urbanized centers exhibited greening driven by targeted initiatives and urbanizing suburbs showed browning due to vegetation loss, about 30% urban areas showed the reverse pattern, revealing overlooked complexity in urban development. Urban expansion and browning strengthened UHI in suburban areas, whereas greening initiatives mitigated UHI in urban center and mitigated UHI enhancement in suburban areas. Slowed warming in urban centers together with accelerated warming in suburban areas flattened the temperature gradient between urban centers and suburbs. This dynamic expanded the spatial extent of elevated temperatures and reshaped the classic urban-to-rural UHI profile into a flatter form. In UingB areas, UHI intensification was jointly driven by increase in ISA, vegetation loss, and their interaction, while in UingG areas, EVI increases and a negative interaction together offset over half of the warming driven by urban expansion. These findings reveal that UHI evolution is not unidirectional but depends on localized urbanization and greening dynamics, offering pathways for strategic heat mitigation.

greening initiative↗