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Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (Life) I. Improved Exoplanet Detection Yield Estimates for A Large Mid-Infrared Space-Interferometer Mission

Context. One of the long-term goals of exoplanet science is the atmospheric characterization of dozens of small exoplanets in order to understand their diversity and search for habitable worlds and potential biosignatures. Achieving this goal requires a space mission of sufficient scale that can spatially separate the signals from exoplanets and their host stars and thus directly scrutinize the exoplanets and their atmospheres. Aims. We seek to quantify the exoplanet detection performance of a space-based mid-infrared (MIR) nulling interferometer that measures the thermal emission of exoplanets. We study the impact of various parameters and compare the performance with that of large single-aperture mission concepts detecting exoplanets in reflected light. Methods. We have developed an instrument simulator that considers all major astrophysical noise sources and coupled it with Monte Carlo of a synthetic exoplanet population around main-sequence stars within 20 pc. This allows us to quantify the number (and types) of exoplanets that our mission concept could detect over a certain time period. Two different scenarios to distribute the observing time among the stellar targets are discussed and different apertures sizes and wavelength ranges are considered. Results. An interferometer consisting of four 2 m apertures working in the 4–18.5 μ.m wavelength range with a total instrument throughput of 5% could detect up to ≈550 exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 6 R ⊕ with an integrated S/N ≥ 7. At least ≈160 of the detected exoplanets have radii ≤1.5 R ⊕ . Depending on the observing scenario, ≈25–45 rocky exoplanets (objects with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ ) orbiting within the empirical habitable zone (eHZ) of their host stars are among the detections. With four 3.5 m apertures, the total number of detections can increase to up to ≈770, including ≈60–80 rocky eHZ planets. With four times 1 m apertures, the maximum detection yield is ≈315 exoplanets, including ≤20 rocky eHZ planets. The vast majority of small, temperate exoplanets are detected around M dwarfs. The impact of changing the wavelength range to 3–20 μm or 6–17 μm on the detection yield is negligible. Conclusions. A large space-based MIR nulling interferometer will be able to directly detect hundreds of small, nearby exoplanets, tens of which would be habitable world candidates. In terms of predicted detection yield, such a mission can compete with large single-aperture reflected light missions. Given that we assumed only 2.5 years for the search phase, a significant sub-set of the detected exoplanets can be followed-up in a second mission phase to obtain high SNR thermal emission spectra, leveraging the superior diagnostic power of the MIR wavelength regime compared to shorter wavelengths.

planets and satellites: terrestrial planets

Speckle Observations of TESS Exoplanet Host Stars: Understanding the Binary Exoplanet Host Star Orbital Period Distribution

We present high-resolution speckle interferometric imaging observations of TESS exoplanet host stars using the NN-EXPLORE Exoplanet and Stellar Speckle Imager instrument at the 3.5 m WIYN telescope. Eight TESS objects of interest that were originally discovered by Kepler were previously observed using the Differential Speckle Survey Instrument. Speckle observations of 186 TESS stars were carried out, and 45 (24%) likely bound companions were detected. This is approximately the number of companions we would expect to observe given the established 46% binarity rate in exoplanet host stars. For the detected binaries, the distribution of stellar mass ratio is consistent with that of the standard Raghavan distribution and may show a decrease in high-q systems as the binary separation increases. The distribution of binary orbital periods, however, is not consistent with the standard Ragahavan model, and our observations support the premise that exoplanet-hosting stars with binary companions have, in general, wider orbital separations than field binaries. We find that exoplanet-hosting binary star systems show a distribution peaking near 100 au, higher than the 40–50 au peak that is observed for field binaries. This fact led to earlier suggestions that planet formation is suppressed in close binaries.

Stellar Speckle Imager

A Revised Exoplanet Yield from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has a goal of detecting small planets orbiting stars bright enough for mass determination via ground-based radial velocity observations. Here, we present estimates of how many exoplanets the TESS mission will detect, the physical properties of the detected planets, and the properties of the stars that those planets orbit. This work uses stars drawn from the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List and revises yields from prior studies that were based on Galactic models. We modeled the TESS observing strategy to select approximately 200,000 stars at 2-minute cadence, while the remaining stars are observed at 30-minute cadence in full-frame image data. We placed zero or more planets in orbit around each star, with physical properties following measured exoplanet occurrence rates, and used the TESS noise model to predict the derived properties of the detected exoplanets. In the TESS 2-minute cadence mode we estimate that TESS will find 1250 ± 70 exoplanets (90% confidence), including 250 smaller than 2 R(sub ⊕). Furthermore, we predict that an additional 3100 planets will be found in full-frame image data orbiting bright dwarf stars and more than 10,000 around fainter stars. We predict that TESS will find 500 planets orbiting M dwarfs, but the majority of planets will orbit stars larger than the Sun. Our simulated sample of planets contains hundreds of small planets amenable to radial velocity follow-up, potentially more than tripling the number of planets smaller than 4 R(sub ⊕) with mass measurements. This sample of simulated planets is available for use in planning follow-up observations and analyses.

Barclay, Thomas

Exoplanet Community Report on Direct Infrared Imaging of Exoplanets

Direct infrared imaging and spectroscopy of exoplanets will allow for detailed characterization of the atmospheric constituents of more than 200 nearby Earth-like planets, more than is possible with any other method under consideration. A flagship mission based on larger passively cooled infrared telescopes and formation flying technologies would have the highest angular resolution of any concept under consideration. The 2008 Exoplanet Forum committee on Direct Infrared Imaging of Exoplanets recommends: (1) a vigorous technology program including component development, integrated testbeds, and end-to-end modeling in the areas of formation flying and mid-infrared nulling; (2) a probe-scale mission based on a passively cooled structurally connected interferometer to be started within the next two to five years, for exoplanetary system characterization that is not accessible from the ground, and which would provide transformative science and lay the engineering groundwork for the flagship mission with formation flying elements. Such a mission would enable a complete exozodiacal dust survey (<1 solar system zodi) in the habitable zone of all nearby stars. This information will allow for a more efficient strategy of spectral characterization of Earth-sized planets for the flagship missions, and also will allow for optimization of the search strategy of an astrometric mission if such a mission were delayed due to cost or technology reasons. (3) Both the flagship and probe missions should be pursued with international partners if possible. Fruitful collaboration with international partners on mission concepts and relevant technology should be continued. (4) Research and Analysis (R&A) should be supported for the development of preliminary science and mission designs. Ongoing efforts to characterize the the typical level of exozodiacal light around Sun-like stars with ground-based nulling technology should be continued.

Danchi, William C.

Categorization of planets and exoplanets for Astrobiology.

Introduction: The number of exoplanets detected is astounding –and was not predicted. Note that Bo-rucki’s foundational paper for the Kepler mission in 1984 predicted:“...a detection rate of one planet per year of observation appears possible.”[1]. Even more astounding is the enormous diversity of exoplanets [2,3]. It is already clear from the data, that our Solar System does not bound the diversity and the range of processes seen in the exoplanets [2,3,4]. As telescopes improve it is certain that the number of exoplanets will become astronomical and the diversity will increase apace. The search for habitable locations and for evidence of life is a central part of the approach and excitement of exoplanet research [5,6]. Based on our experience to date we can expect that there will be enormous diversity in the types of habitability and life on exoplanets and that the Earth and our Solar System do not bound the possibilities for either habitability and life, and may not even provide a definite guide to selecting c and i-dates for detailed study from the enormous lists of exoplanets that will emerge. How can we develop a system for categorizing exoplanets in a way that allows for selection and prioritization in the search for diverse habitats and for diverse lifeforms?The short answer is we have no idea. In this short abstract I will venture some suggested approach-es. (see also[7]). To date, our solar system provides three classes for a habitable world:1) Earth. Water worlds, represented, of course, by Earth, and Earth-like worlds Venus and Mars. 2) Europa. Ice-covered worlds represented by Europa and including Enceladus and others, and 3) Titan. Cryogenic liquid covered worlds, represented by Titan. Earth and Europa world simply life made from carbon compounds in a water medium. Interest in these“ water worlds” is rooted in our understanding of life on Earth–the only example of life we have. The primary difference between Earth and Europa worlds is access to sunlight as an energy source on Earth. Titan represents the concept of carbon-based life in a cryogenic liquid such as CH4or C2H6 [8-13]. It is unlikely that Earth, Europa, and Titan represent the full range of possible classes of habitability for the many exoplanets that have been, or will be, discovered. It is also unlikely that life as we know it on Earth represents the full range of possible life on exoplanets. I am suggesting here that we start with these three classes (Earth, Europa, Titan) for exoplanet characterization and add others based on predicted types, such as “Hycean” worlds, a hypothetical type of planet with a hot, water-covered surface with a hydrogen dominated atmosphere [14] and the many examples considered in [15,16] and even imagined habitability and life forms [7] such as Sarr -a small, hot (500°C) rocky planet with an atmosphere over liquid sulfur. And that hosts only sulfur-based life. We are probably safe in the assumption that the richness and diversity of the exoplanets will exceed that of our collective imaginations.

Christopher P Mckay

Predicted Yield of Transits of Known Radial Velocity Exoplanets from the TESS Primary and Extended Missions

Radial velocity (RV) surveys have detected hundreds of exoplanets through their gravitational interactions with their host stars. Some will be transiting, but most lack sufficient follow-up observations to confidently detect (or rule out) transits. We use published stellar, orbital, and planetary parameters to estimate the transit probabilities for nearly all exoplanets that have been discovered via the RV method. From these probabilities, we predict that 25.5 (sup +0.7, sub -0.7) of the known RV exoplanets should transit their host stars. 'This prediction is more than double the amount of RV exoplanets that are currently known to transit The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) presents a valuable opportunity to explore the transiting nature of many of the known RV exoplanet systems. Based on the anticipated pointing of TESS during its two-year primary mission, we identify the known RV exoplanets that it will observe and predict that 11.7 (sup +0.3, sub -0.3) of them will have transits detected by TESS. However, we only expect the discovery of transits for ~3 of these exoplanets to be novel (i.e., not previously known). We predict that the TESS photometry will yield dispositive null results for the transits of ~ 125 RV exoplanets. This will represent a substantial increase in the effort to refine ephemerides of known RV exoplanets. We demonstrate that these results are robust to changes in the ecliptic longitudes of future TESS observing sectors. Finally, we consider how several potential TESS extended mission scenarios affect the number of transiting RV exoplanets we expect TESS to observe.

Thomas Barclay

HOMES: Holographic Method for Exoplanet Spectroscopy

The search for habitable exoplanets in the "neighborhood," that is within 10 parsecs (pc),invites new observational techniques, because telescopes available today have significant limitations. For example, gravitational micro-lensing is a deep field method that has little or no utility within 10 pc. Photometry of transits reduces the availability of exoplanets to a probability of approximately a 1%, and fewer than 1 out of 100 earth twins would ever be seen. For the 1% of exoplanets seen in transit, spectra of albedos cannot be taken.Even more limiting, Doppler shift studies are indirect and cannot characterize exoplanets other than by their orbits and masses through stellar radial velocity (RV). Moreover, RV by Doppler shift cannot detect planets in orbits on a plane perpendicular to our line of sight. Astrometry can be used to measure stellar orbital wobble for those exoplanetary systems in the plane perpendicular to our line of sight, as was contemplated for the cancelled NASA SIM mission 1 and rests now with ESA's GAIA2. In either case, the exoplanets detected by stellar RV or astrometry would not be directly observed, so the assumption that the three phases of water could exist does not answer a key question of habitability. Is there water on the exoplanet? Moreover, the discovery of water on an exoplanet in the habitable zone, exciting though it would be, is insufficient to determine just how habitable the exoplanet might possibly be. Like Goldilocks' porridge - there are many other ingredients beyond water alone in a life-sustaining soup.We propose a new species of optical telescope that has as one of its capabilities the high resolution spectrographic characterization of exoplanets on stars within 10 pc of the observatory. To achieve this performance specification, we propose to break with convention by taking advantage of an optical technology unknown until relatively recent times: the hologram. In this Report we show how holograms used in primary and secondary can extract spectrograms from exoplanets at distances reaching 33 light years from our solar system. We describe a notional space telescope using these novel optics that could make its observations in a space deployment scenario.

Ditto, Thomas

Constraining Stellar Photospheres as an Essential Step for Transmission Spectroscopy of Small Exoplanets

Transiting exoplanets offer a unique opportunity to study the atmospheres of terrestrial worlds in other systems in the coming decade. By absorbing and scattering starlight, exoplanet atmospheres produce spectroscopic transit depth variations that allow us to probe their physical structures and chemical compositions. These same variations, however, can be introduced by the photospheric heterogeneity of the host star (i.e., the transit light source effect). Recent modeling efforts and increasingly precise observations are revealing that our understanding of transmission1spectra of the smallest transiting exoplanets will likely be limited by our knowledge of host star photospheres. Here we outline promising scientific opportunities for the next decade that can provide useful constraints on stellar photospheres and inform interpretations of transmission spectra of the smallest(R < 4R) exoplanets. We identify and discuss four primary opportunities: (1) refining stellar magnetic active region properties through exoplanet crossing events; (2) spectral decomposition of active exoplanet host stars; (3) joint retrievals of stellar photospheric and planetary atmospheric properties with studies of transmission spectra; and (4) continued visual transmission spectroscopy studies to complement longer-wavelength studies from JWST. In this context, we make four recommendations to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Committee:(1) identify the transit light source (TLS) effect as a challenge to precise exoplanet transmission spectroscopy and an opportunity ripe for scientific advancement in the coming decade; (2) include characterization of host star photospheric heterogeneity as part of a comprehensive research strategy for studying transiting exoplanets; (3) support the construction of ground-based extremely large telescopes (ELTs); (4) support multi-disciplinary research teams that bring together the heliophysics, stellar physics, and exoplanet communities to further exploit transiting exoplanets as spatial probes of stellar photospheres; and (5) support visual transmission spectroscopy efforts as complements to longer-wavelength observational campaigns with JWST.

Rackham, Benjamin V.

Constraining Stellar Photospheres as an Essential Step for Transmission Spectroscopy of Small Exoplanets

Transiting exoplanets offer a unique opportunity to study the atmospheres of terrestrial worlds in other systems in the coming decade. By absorbing and scattering starlight, exoplanet atmospheres produce spectroscopic transit depth variations that allow us to probe their physical structures and chemical compositions. These same variations, however, can be introduced by the photospheric heterogeneity of the host star (i.e., the transit light source effect). Recent modeling efforts and increasingly precise observations are revealing that our understanding of transmission spectra of the smallest transiting exoplanets will likely be limited by our knowledge of host star photospheres. Here we outline promising scientific opportunities for the next decade that can provide useful constraints on stellar photospheres and inform interpretations of transmission spectra of the smallest (R < 4R ) exoplanets. We identify and discuss four primary opportunities: (1) refining stellar magnetic active region properties through exoplanet crossing events; (2) spectral decomposition of active exoplanet host stars; (3) joint retrievals of stellar photospheric and planetary atmospheric properties with studies of transmission spectra; and (4) continued visual transmission spectroscopy studies to complement longer-wavelength studies from JWST. In this context, we make four recommendations to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Committee: (1) identify the transit light source (TLS) effect as a challenge to precise exoplanet transmission spectroscopy and an opportunity ripe for scientific advancement in the coming decade; (2) include characterization of host star photospheric heterogeneity as part of a comprehensive research strategy for studying transiting exoplanets; (3) support the construction of ground-based extremely large telescopes (ELTs); (4) support multi-disciplinary research teams that bring together the heliophysics, stellar physics, and exoplanet communities to further exploit transiting exoplanets as spatial probes of stellar photospheres; and (5) support visual transmission spectroscopy efforts as complements to longer-wavelength observational campaigns with JWST.

Benjamin V. Rackham

Dark Matter halo parameters from overheated exoplanets via Bayesian hierarchical inference

Dark Matter (DM) can become captured, deposit annihilation energy, and hence increase the heat flow in exoplanets and brown dwarfs. Detecting such a DM-induced heating in a population of exoplanets in the inner kpc of the Milky Way thus provides potential sensitivity to the galactic DM halo parameters. We develop a Bayesian Hierarchical Model to investigate the feasibility of DM discovery with exoplanets and examine future prospects to recover the spatial distribution of DM in the Milky Way. We reconstruct from mock exoplanet datasets observable parameters such as exoplanet age, temperature, mass, and location, together with DM halo parameters, for representative choices of measurement uncertainty and the number of exoplanets detected. We find that detection of O(100) exoplanets in the inner Galaxy can yield quantitative information on the galactic DM density profile, under the assumption of 10% measurement uncertainty. Even as few as O(10) exoplanets can deliver meaningful sensitivities if the DM density and inner slope are sufficiently large.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Exoplanet Classification and Yield Estimates for Direct Imaging Missions

Future NASA concept missions that are currently under study, like the Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx) and the Large Ultra-violet Optical Infra Red Surveyor (UVOIR), could discover a large diversity of exoplanets. We propose here a classification scheme that distinguishes exoplanets into different categories based on their size and incident stellar flux, for the purpose of providing the expected number of exoplanets observed (yield) with direct imaging missions. The boundaries of this classification can be computed using the known chemical behavior of gases and condensates at different pressures and temperatures in a planetary atmosphere. In this study, we initially focus on condensation curves for sphalerite ZnS, H2O, CO2, and CH4. The order in which these species condense in a planetary atmosphere define the boundaries between different classes of planets. Broadly, the planets are divided into rocky planets (0.5-1.0 solar radius), super-Earths (1.0-1.75 solar radius), sub-Neptunes (1.75-3.5 solar radius), sub-Jovians (3.5-6.0 solar radius), and Jovians (6-14.3 solar radius) based on their planet sizes, and "hot," "warm," and "cold" based on the incident stellar flux. We then calculate planet occurrence rates within these boundaries for different kinds of exoplanets, eta (sub planet) [i.e. exoplanet], using the community coordinated results of NASA's Exoplanet Program Analysis Group's Science Analysis Group-13 (SAG-13). These occurrence rate estimates are in turn used to estimate the expected exoplanet yields for direct imaging missions of different telescope diameters.

Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar

The Future of Exoplanet Direct Detection

Diffraction fundamentally limits our ability to image and characterize exoplanets. Currant and planned coronagraphic searches for exoplanets are making incredible strides but are fundamentally limited by the inner working angle of a few λ/D. Some crucial topics, such as demographics of exoplanets within the first 50 Myr and the infrared characterization of terrestrial planets, are beyond the reach of the single aperture angular resolution for the foreseeable future. Interferometry offers some advantages in exoplanet detection and characterization and we explore in this white paper some of the potential scientific breakthroughs possible. We demonstrate here that investments in "exoplanet interferometry" could open up new possibilities for speckle suppression through spatial coherence, a giant boost in astrometric precision for determining exoplanet orbits, ability to take a census of young giant exoplanets (clusters <50 Myr age), and an unrivaled potential for infrared nulling from space to detect terrestrial planets and search for atmospheric biomarkers. All signs point to an exciting future for exoplanets and interferometers, albeit a promise that will take decades to fulfill.

John Monnier

Beyond Kepler: Direct Imaging of Exoplanets

The exoplanets field has been revolutionizing astronomy over the past 20+ years and shows no signs of stopping. The next big wave of exoplanet science may come from direct imaging of exoplanets. Several (non-habitable) exoplanets have already been imaged from the ground and NASA is planning an instrument for its 2020s flagship mission (WFIRST) to directly image large exoplanets. One of the key goals of the field is the detection and characterization of "Earth 2.0", i.e. a rocky planet with an atmosphere capable of supporting life. This appears possible with several potential instruments in the late 2020s such as WFIRST with a starshade, Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs) from the ground, or one of NASA possible flagship missions in the 2030s (HabEx or LUVOIR). Also, if an Earth-like planet exists around Alpha Centauri (A or B), it may be possible to directly image it in the next approx. 5 years with a small space mission such as the Alpha Centauri Exoplanet Satellite (ACESat). I will describe the current challenges and opportunities in this exciting field, as well as the work we are doing at the Exoplanet Technologies group to enable this exciting science.

exoplanet

Spectroscopy of Exoplanet Atmospheres with the FINESSE Explorer

FINESSE (Fast INfrared Exoplanet Spectroscopic Survey Explorer) will provide uniquely detailed information on the growing number of newly discovered planets by characterizing their atmospheric composition and temperature structure. This NASA Explorer mission, selected for a competitive Phase A study, is unique in its breath and scope thanks to broad instantaneous spectroscopy from the optical to the mid-IR (0.7 - 5 micron), with a survey of exoplanets measured in a consistent, uniform way. For 200 transiting exoplanets ranging from Terrestrial to Jovians, FINESSE will measure the chemical composition and temperature structure of their atmospheres and trace changes over time with exoplanet longitude. The mission will do so by measuring the spectroscopic time series for a primary and secondary eclipse over the exoplanet orbital phase curve. With spectrophotometric precision being a key enabling aspect for combined light exoplanet characterization, FINESSE is designed to produce spectrophotometric precision of better than 100 parts-per-million per spectral channel without the need for decorrelation. The exceptional stability of FINESSE will even allow the mission to characterize non-transiting planets, potentially as part of FINESSE's Participating Scientist Program. In this paper, we discuss the flow down from the target availability to observations and scheduling to the analysis and calibration of the data and how it enables FINESSE to be the mission that will truly expand the new field of comparative exoplanetology.

chemical abundance

EarthShine: Observing Our World as an Exoplanet from the Surface of the Moon

NASA’s return to the Moon coincides with explosive growth in exoplanet discovery. Missions are being formulated to search for habitable planets orbiting other stars, making this the ideal time to deploy an instrument suite to the lunar surface to help us recognize a habitable exoplanet when we see it. We present EarthShine, a technically mature, three-instrument suite to observe the whole Earth from the Moon as an exoplanet proxy. Earth Shine data will validate and improve models critical for designing missions to image and characterize exoplanets, thus informing observing strategies for flagship missions to directly image exoplanets. EarthShine will answer interconnected questions in Earth and lunar science, exoplanets, and astrobiology, related to the credo“ follow the water.” Earth Shine can take advantage of current NASA programs to conduct science from the Moon with low-cost, mature space hardware to reduce risk and assure success. Like the 1968 Apollo Earthrise image of our home planet, lonely in the black sky, the appeal of Earth Shine to a multidisciplinary array of researchers in Earth Science, Planetary Science, and astrophysics will maximize both its scientific impact and its impact on the general public.

EarthShine