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Exploring the Effects of Environmental Radiation on Superconducting Qubit Coherence (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Previous experiments at MIT have shown that ionizing radiation reduces the average coherence of superconducting qubit coherence. Recently, others have observed spatiotemporally correlated errors in superconducting qubit arrays and suggested ionizing radiation as the source of these error events. The spatiotemporally correlated errors observed in superconducting qubit arrays have been speculated to originate from ionizing radiation, but it has not been shown that ionizing radiation is the source of these events. During the past year of our research under program DE-SC0021181 we demonstrated that ionizing radiation is a source of spatiotemporally correlated qubit relaxation events.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 16, No. 2, March-April 1975]

Nuclear Safety covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. The scope is limited to topics relevant to the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, safety considerations in regard to the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 127 Quality Assurance in the Construction of Nuclear Power Plants by Sidney A. Bernsen, 141 1974 ANS Topical Meeting on Fast Reactor Safety by M. H. Fontana; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 150 GBR-4 Protection Systems: Failures and Their Consequences by Peter Burgsmüller, J. J. Dekais, Albert Krähe, Raffaello Pignatelli, and Gottfried Vieider, 162 Standby Emergency Power Systems. Part 2—The Later Plants by E. W. Hagen; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 180 Radiotoxic Hazard Measure for Buried Solid Radioactive Waste by J. Hamstra, 190 The Thirteenth AEC Air-Cleaning Conference by D. W. Moeller, D. W. Underhill, and M. W. First, 203 Book Review: Nuclear Criticality Safety; CONSEQUENCES OF EFFLUENT RELEASE: 204 Environmental Radiation Effects of Nuclear Facilities in New York State by M. S. Terpilak and B. L. Jorgensen, 222 Book Review: Thermal Ecology; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 223 Set-Point Drift in Nuclear Power-Plant Safety-Related Instrumentation Adapted by the Nuclear Safety Staff, 224 Diesel-Generator Operating Experience at Nuclear Power Plants, 227 Summary of Operating U. S. Power Reactors as of Jan. 1, 1975, 232 Selected Safety-Related Occurrences Reported in November and December 1974 Compiled by William R. Casto, 235 Recent Occurrences at Nuclear Reactors and Their Causes Compiled by William R. Casto; CURRENT EVENTS: 243 General Administrative Activities Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 251 Action on Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Regulatory Review or Consideration Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 266 Action on Nonreactor Projects Undergoing Regulatory Review or Consideration Compiled by Wm. B Cottrell, 268 Proposed Rule Changes as of Jan. 1, 1975; MISCELLANY: 149 Course in Italy on High-Energy Radiation Dosimetry and Protection (Announcement), 250 Course at Northwestern on Safety of Light-Water-Cooled Nuclear Power Plants (Announcement), 266 Symposium of the Combined Effects on the Environment of Radioactive, Chemical, and Thermal Releases from the Nuclear Industry (Announcement), 271 Short Course on Engineering for Extreme Winds and Tornadoes (Announcement), 272 Three 1-Week Courses at MIT on Nuclear Power-Reactor Safety (Announcement), 272 Harvard University Short Courses (Announcement).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 29, No. 1, January-March 1988]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 Core History and Nuclide Inventory of the Chernobyl Core at the Time of Accident by Gerald Kirchner and Cornelius C. Noack; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 6 Nonprescriptive Nuclear Safety Regulation: The Example of Loss of Offsite Power by M. W. Golay, V. P. Manno, and C. Vlahoplus, Jr., 20 Nuclear Power Safety Goals in Light of the Chernobyl Accident by C. Whipple and C. Starr; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 29 Containment Loads from Severe Accidents—U.S. Program by W. Kerr and M. K. Dey; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 36 Safety Characteristics of Modern High-Temperature Reactors: Focus on German Designs by W. Kröger, H. Nickel, and R. Schulten; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 49 Radiation Hormesis and Nuclear Safety by C. C. Congdon; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 58 Evaluation of Nonradiological Water Chemistry at Power Reactors by Harvey Zibulsky, James J. Kottan, Walter J. Pasciak, Mary Ann Castrogivanni, and Sujit Banerjee, 64 Reactor Shutdown Experience Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 67 Operating U.S. Power Reactors Compiled by E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 85 General Administrative Activities Compiled by E. G. Silver, 94 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides by D. S. Queener, 100 Status of Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Licensing Review Compiled by E. G. Silver, 103 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30, 1987; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 5 Northwestern University Short Course on Radiation Safety, 28 International Approach to Nuclear Safety (After Three-Mile Island and Chernobyl), 57 RPI Short Course on Modern Developments in Boiling Heat Transfer and Two-Phase Flow, 107 20th DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning Conference, 110 Third International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Power Plant Thermal Hydraulics and Operations, 108 The Authors, 111 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 28.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 29, No. 1, January-March 1988]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 Core History and Nuclide Inventory of the Chernobyl Core at the Time of Accident by Gerald Kirchner and Cornelius C. Noack; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 6 Nonprescriptive Nuclear Safety Regulation: The Example of Loss of Offsite Power by M. W. Golay, V. P. Manno, and C. Vlahoplus, Jr., 20 Nuclear Power Safety Goals in Light of the Chernobyl Accident by C. Whipple and C. Starr; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 29 Containment Loads from Severe Accidents—U.S. Program by W. Kerr and M. K. Dey; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 36 Safety Characteristics of Modern High-Temperature Reactors: Focus on German Designs by W. Kröger, H. Nickel, and R. Schulten; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 49 Radiation Hormesis and Nuclear Safety by C. C. Congdon; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 58 Evaluation of Nonradiological Water Chemistry at Power Reactors by Harvey Zibulsky, James J. Kottan, Walter J. Pasciak, Mary Ann Castrogivanni, and Sujit Banerjee, 64 Reactor Shutdown Experience Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 67 Operating U.S. Power Reactors Compiled by E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 85 General Administrative Activities Compiled by E. G. Silver, 94 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides by D. S. Queener, 100 Status of Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Licensing Review Compiled by E. G. Silver, 103 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30, 1987; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 5 Northwestern University Short Course on Radiation Safety, 28 International Approach to Nuclear Safety (After Three-Mile Island and Chernobyl), 57 RPI Short Course on Modern Developments in Boiling Heat Transfer and Two-Phase Flow, 107 20th DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning Conference, 110 Third International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Power Plant Thermal Hydraulics and Operations, 108 The Authors, 111 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 28.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Generation of Synthetic Data for a Radiation Detection Algorithm Competition

This paper details the generation of synthetic radiation data using large-scale Monte Carlo transport models to evaluate radiation search detection algorithms. Modular 3-D Monte Carlo models spanning multiple city blocks were constructed, loosely based on downtown Knoxville, TN, containing buildings composed of multiple materials (brick, granite, and concrete), sidewalks, a four-lane road, side streets, parking lots, and grassy fields. Background and simulated source detector response calculations from these models were used to create synthetic list mode data sets for a 2"×4"×16" NaI(Tl) detector moving through a city street at a constant speed. For the background simulations, major isotopes were computed individually so that background composition and variability could be computed efficiently outside Monte Carlo. The source detector response included six simulated sources placed at 15 source locations. Detector response was developed to be periodic through the city street so that a detector path could begin at one end of the model and wrap around to the other. This framework allowed for the creation of diverse data sets, each with its own unique background and simulated source detector response. Synthetic data allows for high-quality labels, which are useful in developing data-driven radiation detection algorithms. This methodology was used to create synthetic data sets which were released as part of a public data competition to spur the development of new radiation detection algorithms for radiological search applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Correlations Between Panoramic Imagery and Gamma-Ray Background in an Urban Area

When searching for radiological sources in an urban area, a vehicle-borne detector system will often measure complex, varying backgrounds primarily from natural gamma-ray sources. Much work has been focused on developing spectral algorithms that retain sensitivity and minimize the false-positive rate even in the presence of such spectral and temporal variability. However, information about the environment surrounding the detector system might also provide useful clues about the expected background, which if incorporated into an algorithm, could improve performance. Recent work has focused on extensive measuring and modeling of urban areas with the goal of understanding how these complex backgrounds arise. This work presents an analysis of panoramic video images and gamma-ray background data collected in Oakland, California, by the radiological multisensor analysis platform (RadMAP) vehicle. Features were extracted from the panoramic images by semantically labeling the images and then convolving the labeled regions with the detector response. A linear model was used to relate the image-derived features to gamma-ray spectral features obtained using nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) under different regularizations. Here we find some gamma-ray background features correlate strongly with image-derived features that measure the response-adjusted solid angle subtended by sky and buildings, and we discuss the implications for the development of future, contextually aware detection algorithms.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Total Effective Dose from Radiologic Emissions from INL Facilities for Calculation of Population Dose for the INL 2024 Annual Site Environmental Report

Total effective radiation dose from airborne releases was calculated using air dispersion modeling performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Idaho Falls Office using their HYSPLIT computer model (Stein et al. 2015; Draxler et al. 2013), and the Dose Multi-Media (DOSEMM) dose assessment model (Rood 2019) . The objective of these calculations was to provide a grid of total effective dose across a model domain that encompasses a 50-mile (80-km) radius from any Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site source. In addition to INL Site sources, releases from the Radiological and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (RESL) (IF-683) and IF-603 located at the INL Research Center (IRC) within the Idaho Falls city limits were also included. Due to tracking limitations, radionuclides released from IF-611 and IF-603 are modeled as released from IF-603. The dose results will be combined with GIS software to compute a total population dose for the calendar year (CY) 2024 and will be reported in the INL Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER). This report does not cover the population dose calculation and only documents generation of the gridded dose file.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Initial development of a method for correlating indentation test results to damage accumulation in high temperature structural materials

This report describes an experimental approach based on microindentation creep or relaxation tests for assessing the remaining creep life of a sample material. The objective for this experimental program is to complement the development of passively loaded in situ surveillance specimens. These surveillance specimens could be placed in future advanced reactors to assess the degradation of structural properties, primary creep and creep-fatigue life, when the material is exposed to actual reactor operating conditions. The specimens and the corresponding indentation test protocol could form the basis of a structural health monitoring program designed to ensure the safe continued operation of the component given the relatively unknown effect of the reactor coolant chemistry, radiation exposure, and other environmental effects on the material properties of the constituent structural materials.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

TRACER-Uncrewed Aircraft System (TRACER-UAS) Field Campaign Report

Convective processes drive the development of clouds across a variety of scales, thereby playing a central role in governing weather and climate globally. These processes help to set the stage for circulations that redistribute heat and moisture throughout the lower atmosphere, and simultaneously develop storms that supply precipitation to regions that depend on such rain events for supporting a variety of societal needs. At the same time, extreme precipitation events can result in localized flooding of low-lying areas, posing hazards to transportation and regional inhabitants, and potentially damaging structures and infrastructure. As a result, there is an inherent need to better understand the drivers and modulators of clouds and precipitation and leverage such understanding to make projections of how these important systems may evolve with a changing climate. With nearly three billion of Earth’s human inhabitants living within 200 km of a shoreline, development of such understanding is particularly important in coastal regimes. Central drivers of convective cloud development and life cycle in coastal environments include synoptic forcing, local meso- and microscale circulation regimes, microphysical evolution, and aerosol properties. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development and its evolution can help drive the formation and organization of convective clouds, which then impart their own controls through dynamic processes related to latent heating and cooling (including cold-pool formation and propagation), three-dimensional radiative effects, and background environmental conditions (Fan et al. 2016). Such clouds have been contributing to record precipitation events in southeast Texas in recent years, relative to the last several decades of data from regional precipitation gauges (Fagnant et al. 2020). The greater Houston urban area has experienced particularly large increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, with enhanced intensity of extreme events (stretching of distribution tails) having potentially significant implications for watershed floodplain planning and mapping in greater Houston and Harris County. While the most extreme precipitation events were associated with tropical cyclones (e.g., Tropical Storm Allison and Hurricane Harvey; Blood 2014, Kao et al. 2019), strong thunderstorms can also deliver large amounts of precipitation over the area over relatively short periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Radiative Effects on MJO Development in DYNAMO

Observed Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events are examined with the aid of regional model simulations to understand the role of cloud radiative effects in the MJO development. The importance of this role is demonstrated by the absence of MJO in the model simulations that contain no cloud radiative effects. Comparisons of model simulations with and without the cloud radiative effects and observation help identify the major processes arising from those effects. Those processes develop essentially from heating in the upper-troposphere due to shortwave absorption within anvil clouds in the upper troposphere and the convergence of longwave radiation in the middle-upper troposphere, with a peak at 300-hPa, during deep convection. First, that heating adds extra buoyancy and accelerates the rising motion in the upper troposphere in deep convection. The vertical acceleration in the upper troposphere creates a vacuum effect and demands for more deep convection to develop. Second, in response to that demand and required by mass balance arises the large-scale horizontal and vertical mass, moisture, and energy convergence. It strengthens deep convection and, with the feedback from continuing cloud radiative effect, creates conditions that can perpetuate deep convection and MJO development. That perpetuation does not occur however because those processes arising from the cloud radiative heating in the upper troposphere stabilize the troposphere till it supports no further deep convection. Weakening deep convection reduces cloud radiative effects. The subsequent reduction of the vacuum effect in the upper troposphere diminishes deep convection completing an MJO cycle. These results advance our understanding of the development of the MJO in the radiative-convective system over warm waters in the tropics. They show that while the embryo of intraseasonal oscillation may exist in the system its growth/development is largely dependent on cloud radiative effects and feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calculating Potential Radiological Emissions for Waste Management Activities at INL - 20068

At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), work involving radionuclides is evaluated for potential emissions from a project in order to comply with the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) regulations, 40 CFR 61 Subpart H. Emission calculations are documented in an Air Permitting Applicability Determination (APAD) to analyze unmitigated and mitigated emissions and determine if an Application to Construct (ATC) or continuous monitoring is required. To calculate the unmitigated and mitigated emissions, a spreadsheet was developed to provide ease in determining potential emissions by providing the maximum operating temperature and the material being used. The spreadsheet aids in determining the potential emissions for research projects and waste management activities at Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) and other locations across the INL site. Furthermore, it can also be used for periodic confirmatory measurements (PCM) to justify low emissions. Elements that factor into the unmitigated and mitigated calculations include the amount of each radionuclide used (in curies or grams), specific activity (if amount is given in grams), the temperature the material is heated to in Celsius, the dose conversion factor which is derived from Clean Air Act Assessment Package - 1988 (CAP-88) modeling, and the number of HEPA filters used for mitigated measures. The main drivers for calculating the unmitigated emissions for a project are the amount used per radionuclide, the maximum operating temperature, and the location of the work. The maximum operating temperature determines the airborne release factor which is dependent on the physical state of the radionuclide. Prior to October 2017, if the radionuclide was heated to greater than 100 deg. C, the radionuclide was assumed to be a gas, which has the highest airborne release factor. This assumption would be overly conservative for radionuclides with high melting and boiling points, which provided a challenge to demonstrate low emissions. In October 2017, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved an alternative method for INL. This method allows the airborne release factor to be determined by using the melting point and 90% of the boiling point of the radionuclide. This methodology was included in the spreadsheet to allow unmitigated emission calculations for APADs to be completed more efficiently and effectively. Results show a reduction in time completing air emission calculations as well as lower total emissions across all facilities at INL. MFC annual emissions were reduced by 62% from the previous year and Research and Education Campus (REC) facilities were reduced by 38% due to implementation of the approved alternative method. Time spent on APADs, PCMs, and documentation for the annual NESHAP report was also reduced significantly. The spreadsheet provided in Table I provides the potential emission calculations for the 'Advanced Retrieval and Disposition Techniques for Remote Handled Mixed Low Level Waste (RH MLLW) at the Radioactive Scrap and Waste Facility (RSWF)' project. Calculations show the Potential Effective Dose Equivalent (PEDE) at RSWF to be 7.27 E-04 mrem/yr (7.27 E-09 Sv/yr) which is well below the 0.1 mrem/yr threshold. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Incorporating an Interactive Fire Plume-Rise Model in the DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 (E3SMv1) and Examining Aerosol Radiative Effect

The vertical distribution of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) is important in regulating their impacts on weather and climate. The plume-rise process affects the injection height of BBA and interacts with the air parcel lifting and cloud processes. However, these processes are not represented in most global climate models. In this study, we replaced the fixed vertical profiles of monthly BBA emissions in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) with an interactive fire plume-rise model. The vertical distribution of BBA emissions was calculated as a function of ambient thermodynamic conditions from the host E3SMv1, with distributions of fire sizes and sensible heat fluxes derived from the observations. The maximum fire radiative power (FRP) technique was used to determine the fire size. Scaling-FRP technique is used to calculate the wildfire heat release. Daily BBA emission, superimposed with a fire diurnal cycle retrieved from the satellite observation, was included in model simulations. The model shows improved agreement with satellite retrievals and in situ measurement during the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Wildfire Experiment for Cloud chemistry, Aerosol absorption, and Nitrogen campaign. The model-observation comparison demonstrates the importance of the plume-rise model and fire diurnal cycle assumption in determining the BBA fields. We also find that E3SMv1 with new features produces a larger carbonaceous aerosol burden, leading to 0.13 W m –2 warming at the top of atmosphere compared to the default E3SMv1. This highlights the importance of accurately representing the BBA injection height and indicates a no-linear nature in the BBA-induced radiative effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Spatial Dipole Pattern in Asian Aerosol Changes on East Asian Summer Monsoon

Since China implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, the aerosol emissions in East Asia have been greatly reduced, while emissions in South Asia have continued to increase. This has led to a dipole pattern of aerosol emissions between South Asia and East Asia. We report the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responses to the dipole changes in aerosol emissions during 2013–17 are investigated using the atmosphere model of Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We show that decreases in East Asian emissions alone lead to a positive aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 1.59 (±0.97) W m -2 over central-eastern China (25°–40°N, 105°–122.5°E), along with a 0.09 (±0.07)°C warming in summer during 2013–17. The warming intensified the land–sea thermal contrast and increased the rainfall by 0.32 (±0.16) mm day -1 . When considering both the emission reductions in East Asia and increases in South Asia, the ERF is increased to 3.39 (±0.89) W m -2 , along with an enhanced warming of 0.20 (±0.08)°C over central-eastern China, while the rainfall insignificant decreased by 0.07 (±0.16) mm day -1 . It is due to the westward shift of the strengthened western Pacific subtropical high, linked to the increase in black carbon in South Asia. Based on multiple EASM indices, the reductions in aerosol emissions from East Asia alone increased the EASM strength by almost 5%. Considering the effect of the westward shift of WPSH, the dipole changes in emissions together increased the EASM by 5%–15% during 2013–17, revealing an important role of South Asian aerosols in changing the East Asian climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Spatial Dipole Pattern in Asian Aerosol Changes on East Asian Summer Monsoon

Since China implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, the aerosol emissions in East Asia have been greatly reduced, while emissions in South Asia have continued to increase. This has led to a dipole pattern of aerosol emissions between South Asia and East Asia. Here, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responses to the dipole changes in aerosol emissions during 2013–17 are investigated using the atmosphere model of Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We show that decreases in East Asian emissions alone lead to a positive aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 1.59 (±0.97) W m -2 over central-eastern China (25°–40°N, 105°–122.5°E), along with a 0.09 (±0.07)°C warming in summer during 2013–17. The warming intensified the land–sea thermal contrast and increased the rainfall by 0.32 (±0.16) mm day -1 . When considering both the emission reductions in East Asia and increases in South Asia, the ERF is increased to 3.39 (±0.89) W m -2 , along with an enhanced warming of 0.20 (±0.08)°C over central-eastern China, while the rainfall insignificant decreased by 0.07 (±0.16) mm day -1 . It is due to the westward shift of the strengthened western Pacific subtropical high, linked to the increase in black carbon in South Asia. Based on multiple EASM indices, the reductions in aerosol emissions from East Asia alone increased the EASM strength by almost 5%. Finally, considering the effect of the westward shift of WPSH, the dipole changes in emissions together increased the EASM by 5%–15% during 2013–17, revealing an important role of South Asian aerosols in changing the East Asian climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct roles of land cover in regulating spatial variabilities of temperature responses to radiative effects of aerosols and clouds

Surface temperature responses to radiative perturbations due to aerosols and clouds are complicated by the land surface properties. To disentangle these complexities, this study, from a terrestrial surface energy budget perspective, isolates the underlying biophysical processes from the instantaneous radiative effects of aerosols and clouds on surface temperature using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1. It is found that in comparison with the global heterogeneous distributions of instantaneous radiative perturbations at the surface induced by aerosols and clouds, the spatial variations of the corresponding surface temperature responses to aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) during the daytime and cloud radiative effects (CRE) during the nighttime are amplified. It is because of the consistent global distribution of the local surface climate sensitivity (a function of land cover properties such as surface roughness and Bowen ratio) with those of daytime DRE and nighttime CRE. By applying identical anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions over eight major past, present and projected future anthropogenic aerosol emitting regions (i.e. Brazil, China, East Africa, India, Indonesia, South Africa, United States and Western Europe), surface temperature responses to aerosol radiative cooling in the daytime and cloud radiative warming in the nighttime over these regions positively regulated by local surface climate sensitivities are prominent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Moving beyond the Aerosol Climatology of WRF-Solar: A Case Study over the North China Plain

Numerical weather prediction (NWP), when accessible, is a crucial input to short-term solar power forecasting. WRF-Solar, the first NWP model specifically designed for solar energy applications, has shown promising predictive capability. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to investigate its performance under high aerosol loading, which attenuates incoming radiation significantly. The North China Plain is a polluted region due to industrialization, which constitutes a proper testbed for such investigation. Here, in this paper, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) on three surface shortwave radiation components (i.e., global, beam, and diffuse) during five heavy pollution episodes is studied within the WRF-Solar framework. Results show that WRF-Solar overestimates instantaneous beam radiation up to 795.3 W m -2 when the aerosol DRE is not considered. Although such overestimation can be partially offset by an underestimation of the diffuse radiation of about 194.5 W m -2 , the overestimation of the global radiation still reaches 160.2 W m -2 . This undesirable bias can be reduced when WRF-Solar is powered by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts, which then translates to accuracy improvements in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts. This work also compares the forecast performance of the CAMS-powered WRF-Solar with that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Under high aerosol loading conditions, the irradiance forecast accuracy generated by WRF-Solar increased by 53.2% and the PV power forecast accuracy increased by 6.8%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗