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More Than Recycling: The Importance of Multiple Metrics for a Circular Economy for PV in the Energy Transition

Energy transition to carbon-free electricity is a crucial pillar of the Circular Economy. Renewable energy reduces environmental impacts and decarbonizes the production of other goods. But, manufacturing renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic (PV) modules, require energy inputs that are currently carbon intensive. So, how do we decarbonize and circularize these critical technologies to achieve a sustainable energy transition? This work proposes that effective capacity-the installed capacity accounting for degradation rates and failures-is a critical metric to evaluate renewable energy technologies on the path toward circular economy and energy transitions. Our analyses also emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics incorporating mass and energy flows to identify potential tradeoffs and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically.

bifacial↗

A conceptual framework for residential energy security in the context of clean energy transitions

Energy security is a crucial aspect of human well-being. As climate change impacts become more evident, countries are constructing equitable, resilient, and sustainable clean energy transition policies to reduce emissions while ensuring energy security. Climate policies globally highlight the importance of national energy security. Furthermore, adequate and affordable access to household energy is also critical to the continued prioritization of climate mitigation. However, past energy security discussions within the broader climate research and policymaking community primarily focused on national-level energy supply as a critical metric of energy security. Less research has explored the potential implications of energy transitions for residential energy security, often focusing on a single dimension of residential energy security. Thus, we conduct a review of journal articles and governmental plans to develop a conceptual framework of residential energy security and facilitate communication among researchers and policymakers. The framework is designed around four foundational pillars, five metrics measuring residential energy security, and seven drivers influencing the metrics. Additionally, we provide policy examples to show how this framework can be applied to inform decision-making. Thus, this paper makes important contributions to the literature by (a) creating a framework to better understand the concept of energy security at the household level for future research and policy-relevant communications, (b) identifying gaps in the current literature, and (c) highlighting instances where aspects of residential energy security are discussed in policies and governmental plans, which help serve as guiding examples for future applications of our framework in the policymaking processes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Governing in Time: Temporal Capacity and the Feasibility of Energy Transitions

Energy systems function as both technological systems and temporal institutions that shape how societies coordinate, justify, and support collective choices over time. This paper introduces the concept of governance horizons to explain why energy transitions can remain morally supported yet become institutionally weak under increasing pressure. We argue that governability depends on institutions' capacity to synchronize across multiple timeframes - aligning short-term decisions with intermediate coordination and long-term commitments. When this synchronization fails, transitions struggle not because their goals are dismissed, but because governance lacks sufficient time to justify, coordinate, and uphold decisions. Comparative analysis of San Antonio, Texas, and Interior Alaska reveals how energy system pressures generate distinct temporal configurations: San Antonio exhibits governance horizon stretching, where institutions must simultaneously meet near-term reliability demands and long-term transformation goals, while Interior Alaska exhibits horizon compression, where extreme environmental constraints force decision-making into short stabilization cycles. In both contexts, public support for sustainability goals coexists with institutional strain because evaluative judgments are unevenly distributed over time. A temporal configuration analysis is introduced as a diagnostic analytic stance for identifying these patterns. By treating temporal alignment as an explanatory variable rather than a background condition, this approach clarifies how feasibility, sequencing, and legitimacy are shaped by constraints on institutional time. The analysis demonstrates that successful energy transitions depend not only on technological innovation or institutional support, but on governance systems’ ability to sustain credible coordination across multiple time horizons.

Comparative case study↗

Measuring Sustainability of PV in Energy Transition: Mass, Energy, and Circularity

Energy transition to a carbon-free energy system is crucial for global decarbonization and underpins circular economy (CE) goals. Photovoltaic (PV) technology is required for energy transition, but manufacturing and circular pathways can be material, energy, and carbon-intensive. Therefore, we need a prioritization of sustainability strategies for PV evolution. In this study, we compare sustainable PV module designs in terms of their entailed mass, energy, circularity, and carbon impacts to achieve Energy Transition. Results will support decision-makers through data-backed scenario and tradeoff analyses offering prioritization of sustainable PV module designs and CE pathways for meeting Energy Transition goals.

carbon↗

Measuring Sustainability of Solar Modules for Energy Transition: Mass, Energy, and Circularity

Transition to a carbon-free energy system is crucial for global decarbonization and underpins Circular Economy (CE) goals. Photovoltaic (PV) technology is required for Energy Transition, but manufacturing and circular pathways can be material, energy, and carbon-intensive. Therefore, we need a prioritization of sustainability strategies for PV evolution and lifecycle management in the context of Energy Transition. This study employs a suite of quantitative metrics to compare different proposed sustainability strategies for PV modules on their ability to achieve Energy Transition. Proposals for sustainable PV range from high-yield, high-efficiency paradigms, to short-lived and fully recyclable, to long-lasting, indestructible modules. We leverage a global decarbonization deployment schedule through 2100 with the open-source PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool to quantify the impacts of different evolving module design scenarios covering the range of proposed sustainability strategies. First, modules are compared on effective capacity and required replacements to meet and maintain decarbonization capacity targets through 2100. We demonstrate the effects of lifetime, degradation, and reliability on effective capacity. Next, we quantify and compare virgin material demands and lifecycle wastes, examining the impacts of lifetime and recycling rates. Finally, and critically for renewable energy technologies, we quantify the energy demands required to achieve the decarbonization capacity targets and calculate energy balance metrics (net energy, energy return on investment). These results are then summarized into a metric matrix, demonstrating tradeoffs and the importance of longevity. Our suite of mass and energy metrics provides stakeholders and decision-makers with quantitative data on circular economy choices for PV in the energy transition, enabling informed evaluation of tradeoffs of different PV module designs and CE pathways.

circular economy↗

More Than Recycling: How Should We Define Circularity Goals for PV in a Global Energy Transition? Preprint

Energy transition to carbon-free electricity is a crucial pillar of the Circular Economy. Renewable energy reduces environmental impacts and decarbonizes the production of other goods. But, manufacturing renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic (PV) modules, require energy inputs that are currently carbon intensive. So, how do we decarbonize and circularize these critical technologies to achieve a sustainable energy transition? This work proposes that effective capacity-the installed capacity accounting for degradation rates and failures-is a critical metric to evaluate renewable energy technologies on the path toward circular economy and energy transitions. Our analyses also emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics incorporating mass and energy flows to identify potential tradeoffs and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically.

bifacial↗

Near-optimal energy transitions for energy-state trajectories of hypersonic aircraft

A problem of the instantaneous energy transition that occurs in energy-state approximation is considered. The transitions are modeled as a sequence of two load-factor bounded paths (either climb-dive or dive-climb). The boundary-layer equations associated with the energy-state dynamic model are analyzed to determine the precise location of the transition.

Ardema, M. D.↗

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗

Just Transition Principles: Prepared for the APEC Energy Working Group Workshop on Promoting a Just Energy Transition

A global energy transition from fossil energy to clean energy is unfolding. Just transition is an iterative, continuous process of moving from a fossil-fuel economy to a green economy that provides decent, productive, and ecologically sustainable livelihoods; nurtures social dialogue; and equitably distributes costs and benefits of the energy system. It is aimed at supporting affected workers and communities and affirms that the transition is towards a more equitable energy system. Though the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region as a whole is largely representative of global energy transition trends, APEC’s member economies – and communities within them – will have their own transition nuances. Approaches to just transition must therefore recognize both the global and the local transition dynamics. The report offers eight just transition principles that can help inform work that assures the current energy transition, and its future iterations, are fair and equitable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Grand Challenges: wind energy research needs for a global energy transition

Wind energy is anticipated to play a central role in enabling a rapid transition from fossil fuels to a system based largely on renewable power. For wind power to fulfill its expected role as the backbone – providing nearly half of the electrical energy – of a renewable-based, carbon-neutral energy system, critical challenges around design, manufacture, and deployment of land and offshore technologies must be addressed. During the past 3 years, the wind research community has invested significant effort toward understanding the nature and implications of these challenges and identifying associated gaps. The outcomes of these efforts are summarized in a series of 10 articles, some under review by Wind Energy Science (WES) and others planned for submission during the coming months. This letter explains the genesis, significance, and impacts of these efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Intentional and Responsible Energy Transitions: Integrating Design Choices in the Pursuit of Carbon-Neutral Futures

The transitions of energy systems to carbon neutrality are among is one of the most ambitious, complex, uncertain, significant, and transformative projects in human history. They will therefore demand extraordinarily thoughtful, informed, and careful leadership. In recent years, this project has reached an important turning point, with widespread agreement to decarbonize energy systems by 2050. We argue that the next step is to engage leaders in doing the work necessary to achieve that goal. Specifically, we argue that regional leaders, across sectors, should build collaborative initiatives to intentionally and responsibly design and advance regional energy transitions. These transitions will entail navigating uncertain and unknown terrain, requiring diverse organizations and communities to work together to chart and construct potential pathways, assess their implications, and collectively work to make progress. To address these challenges, we recommend adopting region-first, anticipatory, justice-oriented approaches. In such approachesthis process, regions can collaboratively identify, deliberate, design, and navigate toward endpoints along complex and shifting pathways that recognize that design will matter. Efuture energy systems will deeply shape and be shaped by the futures of both societies and economies. Transitions will therefore need to be inclusive, to provide broad public input into both how to proceed with transitions and the goals that guide their design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

When energy doesn’t add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions

Global progress in energy transitions to support climate mitigation goals has been slower than anticipated; this has prompted shifts away from traditional paradigms of regulated energy ownership towards a model of energy democratization by local communities and individuals. For example, in the United States, local communities in over 250 cities, counties, and states have made pledges to reach 100% renewable electrification by target dates ranging from 2020 to 2050. However, the availability of infrastructure and the competition for renewable energy resources, as well as lack of awareness of these limitations, present significant barriers to overcome. In this study, we explored a subset of 31 of these cities to assess their current electricity generation and how much further they have to go to meet their goals. Through an energyshed framework, we estimated powerplant electricity allocation to each city assuming competition for power from various renewable and non-renewable resource types, as well as look at the ‘best case scenario’ assuming 100% allocation of renewable-sourced electricity for a handful of cities in order to understand the existing and planned energy mixes for 2021 and the following 20 years. It is likely most cities will meet 10% of their energy demand with renewable energy, with best cases scenarios reaching between 35% and 65% renewable penetration, within the next 20–30 years. This highlights the need for infrastructural development in the energy sector, as well as intentional planning efforts in order to make these energy goals a reality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A framework to centre justice in energy transition innovations

The important role of justice in energy transition technologies has been a topic of increasing interest in recent years. However, key questions remain about how inequities influence energy transition innovations (ETIs) from their design to their widespread use, which ETIs receive more funding, and who controls ETI research, prototyping and deployment. Here, in this work, we propose a framework to centre justice in energy transition innovations (CJI) and examine how three tenets of justice (recognition, procedural and distributional justice) influence each level of ETI, including niche, regime and landscape levels. We examine wind energy in Mexico and multiple ETIs in Los Angeles as use cases to show how our CJI framework can help reveal the specific inequities undermining just energy transitions at crucial analytical levels of ETI in practice. Our CJI framework offers a path for promoters, practitioners and underserved communities to target the problems these groups face and create ETIs that better address their specific aspirations, needs and circumstances.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sunshine, Wine, and Wool - Agrivoltaics in Texas' Energy Transition

Achieving Texas' renewable energy goals while maintaining land for agriculture requires strategic cross-sector collaboration. In this session, researchers, ranchers, and developers will discuss opportunities and challenges at the energy-agriculture nexus - specifically, emerging trends in agrivoltaics, Texas-relevant considerations, R&D opportunities, and the potential role of agrivoltaics in Texas' energy transition.

agriculture↗

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: Bainbridge Island, Washington - Cohort 2 Technical Assistance: Pathways to 100% Renewable Energy

The City of Bainbridge Island (COBI) applied for and received technical assistance from the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) in part to achieve their goal of 100% renewable electricity generation by 2040, five years ahead of the Washington State goal, and to increase its energy resilience in the face of natural disasters. To help address these goals, the City of Bainbridge Island (COBI) applied for and received technical assistance from the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) during 2022-2024. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, ETIPP provides technical assistance to remote coastal and island communities interested in approaches to renewable and resilient energy transitions. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) completed the technical analysis aspects of the project, supported by the community partner Spark Northwest and the program administrator, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This report begins by describing the approach to technical assistance in the ETIPP project, followed by the development of future scenarios for electric demand based on current use. Potential pathways to 100% renewable energy are identified and analyzed by technology contributions from solar energy, anaerobic biodigestion, distributed wind, and marine energy. The combinations of these technologies and contributions to meet demand are discussed, along with potential policies and programs for implementation of the most relevant technologies moving forward. The report concludes with recommendations for next steps for COBI to meet the goal of 100% renewable energy generation by 2040 on- and off-island, and key caveats to consider.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Fair and Equitable Clean Energy Transition in Alachua County

Alachua County, Florida is committed to transitioning to renewable energy in order to address the climate crisis and secure energy justice for low-income and underserved communities. Alachua County's community-led Project EMPOWER (Energy Modernization for People, Opportunity, Work, Equity, and Renewables) is focused on making the clean energy transition fair and equitable for everyone, and is partnering with the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot.

Alachua County↗