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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Fast emulation of quantum three-body scattering

Here, we develop a class of emulators for solving quantum three-body scattering problems. They are based on combining the variational method for scattering observables and the recently proposed eigenvector continuation concept. The emulators are first trained by the exact scattering solutions of the governing Hamiltonian at a small number of points in its parameter space, and then employed to make interpolations and extrapolations in that space. Through a schematic nuclear-physics model with finite-range two and three-body interactions, we demonstrate the emulators to be extremely accurate and efficient. The computing time for emulation is on the scale of milliseconds (on a laptop), with relative errors ranging from 10 –13 to 10 –4 depending on the case. The emulators also require little memory. We argue that these emulators can be generalized to even more challenging scattering problems. Furthermore, this general strategy may be applicable for building the same type of emulators in other fields, wherever variational methods can be developed for evaluating physical models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Security Programs - Cyber: MMAREJBLIGE – Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulation for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations - 23-0644

Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulations for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations (MMAREJBLIGE) introduces an agent-based modeling framework into real-time cyber-physical emulation to achieve a context-aware environment that introduces operator/attacker/external-condition variability to improve emulation fidelity and testing rigor. We detail our agent framework design, internal communication via message passing, and time synchronization, as well as the individual components of the system. We include a brief analysis of several scenarios run on a real-time, hardware-in-the-loop, Industrial Control Systems (ICS) test-bed which include normal operation, physical disruption, disruption with mitigation, and disruption with mitigation during a cyber denial-of-service (DOS) attack.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2017

Emulation of Condensed Fuel Flames Using a Burning Rate Emulator (BRE) in Microgravity

The Burning Rate Emulator (BRE) is a gaseous fuel burner developed to emulate the burning of condensed phase fuels. The current study details several tests at the NASA Glenn 5-s drop facility to test the BRE technique in microgravity conditions. The tests are conducted for two burner diameters, 25 mm and 50 mm respectively, with methane and ethylene as the fuels. The ambient pressure, oxygen content and fuel flow rate are additional parameters. The microgravity results exhibit a nominally hemispherical flame with decelerating growth and quasi-steady heat flux after about 5 seconds. The BRE burner was evaluated with a transient analysis to assess the extent of steady-state achieved. The burning rate and flame height recorded at the end of the drop are correlated using two steady-state purely diffusive models. A higher burning rate for the bigger burner as compared to theory indicates the significance of gas radiation. The effect of the ambient pressure and oxygen concentration on the heat of gasification are also examined.

flames↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Unified Testing Platform to Mature Blockchain Applications for Grid Emulation Environments

Blockchain technology is a relatively novel technology that can be used to develop more decentralized, autonomous and tamper-evident solutions. A feature that can aid Transactive Energy Systems to reach their goals by enabling individual actors to communicate and reach consensus with other participants in a more decentralized fashion. However, technical barriers to evaluate and adopt this type of technology within the electrical domain still exist. To facilitate this task, BLOSEM Unified Testing Platform (UTP), a DOE-sponsored, multi-lab effort intends to accelerate the development of solutions by offering a common set of reusable services that can be used to interconnect existent grid tools with blockchain services. UTP is intended to serve as development platform that can provide application engineers with the technical means to evaluate potential blockchain solutions, by enabling them to concentrate on the actual application functionalities while at the same time abstracting the connectivity and performance measurement tasks. The use of BLOSEM UTP is further demonstrated by implementing two potential use cases that are intended to validate both the feasibility of implementing these applications as blockchain-based solutions while also demonstrating the features provided by UTP.

blockchain co-simulation↗
NASA NTRS2004

Space Communications Emulation Facility

Establishing space communication between ground facilities and other satellites is a painstaking task that requires many precise calculations dealing with relay time, atmospheric conditions, and satellite positions, to name a few. The Space Communications Emulation Facility (SCEF) team here at NASA is developing a facility that will approximately emulate the conditions in space that impact space communication. The emulation facility is comprised of a 32 node distributed cluster of computers; each node representing a satellite or ground station. The objective of the satellites is to observe the topography of the Earth (water, vegetation, land, and ice) and relay this information back to the ground stations. Software originally designed by the University of Kansas, labeled the Emulation Manager, controls the interaction of the satellites and ground stations, as well as handling the recording of data. The Emulation Manager is installed on a Linux Operating System, employing both Java and C++ programming codes. The emulation scenarios are written in extensible Markup Language, XML. XML documents are designed to store, carry, and exchange data. With XML documents data can be exchanged between incompatible systems, which makes it ideal for this project because Linux, MAC and Windows Operating Systems are all used. Unfortunately, XML documents cannot display data like HTML documents. Therefore, the SCEF team uses XML Schema Definition (XSD) or just schema to describe the structure of an XML document. Schemas are very important because they have the capability to validate the correctness of data, define restrictions on data, define data formats, and convert data between different data types, among other things. At this time, in order for the Emulation Manager to open and run an XML emulation scenario file, the user must first establish a link between the schema file and the directory under which the XML scenario files are saved. This procedure takes place on the command line on the Linux Operating System. Once this link has been established the Emulation manager validates all the XML files in that directory against the schema file, before the actual scenario is run. Using some very sophisticated commercial software called the Satellite Tool Kit (STK) installed on the Linux box, the Emulation Manager is able to display the data and graphics generated by the execution of a XML emulation scenario file. The Emulation Manager software is written in JAVA programming code. Since the SCEF project is in the developmental stage, the source code for this type of software is being modified to better fit the requirements of the SCEF project. Some parameters for the emulation are hard coded, set at fixed values. Members of the SCEF team are altering the code to allow the user to choose the values of these hard coded parameters by inserting a toolbar onto the preexisting GUI.

Hill, Chante A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-accuracy emulators for observables in ΛCDM, N eff, Σ m ν, and w cosmologies

ABSTRACT We use the emulation framework CosmoPower to construct and publicly release neural network emulators of cosmological observables, including the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectra, matter power spectrum, distance-redshift relation, baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and redshift-space distortion (RSD) observables, and derived parameters. We train our emulators on Einstein–Boltzmann calculations obtained with high-precision numerical convergence settings, for a wide range of cosmological models including ΛCDM, wCDM, ΛCDM + Neff, and ΛCDM + Σmν. Our CMB emulators are accurate to better than 0.5 per cent out to ℓ = 104, which is sufficient for Stage-IV data analysis, and our P(k) emulators reach the same accuracy level out to $k=50 \, \, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, which is sufficient for Stage-III data analysis. We release the emulators via an online repository (CosmoPower Organisation), which will be continually updated with additional extended cosmological models. Our emulators accelerate cosmological data analysis by orders of magnitude, enabling cosmological parameter extraction analyses, using current survey data, to be performed on a laptop. We validate our emulators by comparing them to class and camb and by reproducing cosmological parameter constraints derived from Planck TT, TE, EE, and CMB lensing data, as well as from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 4 CMB data, Dark Energy Survey Year-1 galaxy lensing and clustering data, and Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 12 BAO and RSD data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wave-function-based emulation for nucleon-nucleon scattering in momentum space

Emulators for low-energy nuclear physics can provide fast and accurate predictions of bound-state and scattering observables for applications that require repeated calculations with different parameters, such as Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we extend a scattering emulator based on the Kohn variational principle (KVP) to momentum space (including coupled channels) with arbitrary boundary conditions, which enable the mitigation of spurious singularities known as Kohn anomalies. We test it on a modern chiral nucleon-nucleon (N N) interaction, including emulation of the coupled channels. We provide comparisons between a Lippmann-Schwinger equation emulator and our KVP momentum-space emulator for a representative set of neutron-proton (n p) scattering observables, and also introduce a quasi-spline-based approach for the KVP-based emulator. Furthermore, our findings show that while there are some trade-offs between accuracy and speed, all three emulators perform well. Self-contained Jupyter notebooks that generate the results and figures in this paper are publicly available.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emulation Framework for Distributed Large-Scale Systems Integration

Recent trends in systems engineering include integration of very large-scale systems, which entails significant challenges when they are geographically dispersed. In these scenarios, intelligent integration of distributed large-scale systems requires significant coordination among hardware elements as well as all software components. The approach of integrated systems (both computing platform and experimental equipment) for end-to-end orchestration is called federation. Virtual frameworks can aid in the testing, assessment, and implementation of a functional system of interconnected resources. We present an emulation framework that replicates the software environments of multi-site federations of computing systems and instruments. Our emulation framework allows systems engineers to reduce developmentcost and avoid disruptions to production infrastructure. Our framework was effectively used to develop and test software modules for various tasks including container orchestration and instrument access. For performance assessment, however, the emulated framework is severely limited in providing accurate network and IO measurements at 10 Gbps and higher data rates. The data transfer performance profiles estimated using these emulated measurements are usually inaccurate for high bandwidth and high latency connections, since emulation does not accurately reflect the critical network transport dynamics.We utilize measurements from a physical testbed with hardware network emulators to obtain data transfer profiles that closely match the expected profiles for the emulated federations. We show the effectiveness of our approach by an illustrative example of integrated (federated) multi-site ultra large-scale systems that are connected via high speed wide area networks.

Imam, Neena↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian Process Emulators for Volcanic Ash Dispersion Model Tephra2

It is necessary to predict volcanic ash deposition since falling ash is harmful to human activities. Because simulators built for this purpose are computationally expensive, it is popular to use statistical emulators for geophysical hazard analyses, where a large number of simulations are required. Gaussian stochastic process emulators are able to approximate expensive simulations in an accurate and efficient way. Using a relatively small number of simulation runs, a well-trained emulator can accurately predict simulation outputs at massive new input points in a few seconds. Under different explosive eruption conditions, we constructed Gaussian stochastic process emulators for Tephra2, a simulation tool for estimating the accumulation of volcanic ash over a region. Historical wind records are used as input wind data, without assuming a Gaussian wind speed profile or common wind direction among elevations. While there are several inputs for Tephra2, we use no more than three physically motivated variables as emulator inputs to reduce the computational cost of emulations. The emulator outputs predict the mass of tephra per unit area at 50281 grid points around a predetermined vent location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

James A Franke↗
DOE OSTI2023

A localized ensemble of approximate Gaussian processes for fast sequential emulation

More attention has been given to the computational cost associated with the fitting of an emulator. Substantially less attention is given to the computational cost of using that emulator for prediction. This is primarily because the cost of fitting an emulator is usually far greater than that of obtaining a single prediction, and predictions can often be obtained in parallel. In many settings, especially those requiring Markov Chain Monte Carlo, predictions may arrive sequentially and parallelization is not possible. In this case, using an emulator procedure which can produce accurate predictions efficiently can lead to substantial time savings in practice. In this paper, we propose a global model approximate Gaussian process framework via extension of a popular local approximate Gaussian process (laGP) framework. Our proposed emulator can be viewed as a treed Gaussian process where the leaf nodes are laGP models, and the tree structure is learned greedily as a function of the prediction stream. The suggested method (called leapGP) has interpretable tuning parameters which control the time‐memory trade‐off. One reasonable choice of settings leads to an emulator with a training cost and makes predictions rapidly with an asymptotic amortized cost of .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

BUQEYE guide to projection-based emulators in nuclear physics

The BUQEYE collaboration (Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification: Errors in Your effective field theory) presents a pedagogical introduction to projection-based, reduced-order emulators for applications in low-energy nuclear physics. The term emulator refers here to a fast surrogate model capable of reliably approximating high-fidelity models. As the general tools employed by these emulators are not yet well-known in the nuclear physics community, we discuss variational and Galerkin projection methods, emphasize the benefits of offline-online decompositions, and explore how these concepts lead to emulators for bound and scattering systems that enable fast and accurate calculations using many different model parameter sets. We also point to future extensions and applications of these emulators for nuclear physics, guided by the mature field of model (order) reduction. All examples discussed here and more are available as interactive, open-source Python code so that practitioners can readily adapt projection-based emulators for their own work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adaptive Control and Scaling Approach for the Emulation of Dynamic Sub-scale Torque Loads

Previous research by the authors proposed a control and scaling approach for emulating dynamic sub-scale torque loads. This approach produced an emulation controller that successfully regulated the dynamic behavior of a sub-scale electro-mechanical system intended to be a dynamical representation of the sub-scale turboelectric powertrain of a single-aisle commercial aircraft. The sub-scale system provides an environment without turbomachinery or rotors for the initial testing of electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) control algorithms as they would be applied to a full-scale EAP system. The sub-scale turbomachinery/rotor torque loads were produced by electric machines (EMs) driven by the control and scaling approach, a full-scale turboelectric powertrain model, and an advanced EAP control algorithm. Although successfully tested, this approach produces an emulation controller that does not guarantee asymptotic stability. Modifying the original control law and integrating adaptive control techniques into the emulation controller allows the designer to guarantee asymptotic stability. This paper introduces the idea behind the emulation controller modifications, derives the controller, proves asymptotic stability, describes the implementation of the controller on a sub-scale electro-mechanical system intended to represent a parallel hybrid-electric turbofan engine, and describes the testing of a full-scale advanced EAP control algorithm. The turbofan engine and emulation controller performance are compared to results obtained using the previous, non-adaptive control and scaling approach.

adaptive↗