On Probabilities of Moderate Deviations of Empirical Measures for Contiguous Distributions
The large deviation principle for moderate deviation probabilities of empirical measures for contiguous distributions is proved.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Modeling magnetic fields from a DC power cable buried beneath San Francisco Bay based on empirical measurements
Here, the Trans Bay Cable (TBC) is a ±200-kilovolt (kV), 400 MW 85-km long High Voltage Direct Current (DC) buried transmission line linking Pittsburg, CA with San Francisco, CA (SF) beneath the San Francisco Estuary. The TBC runs parallel to the migratory route of various marine species, including green sturgeon, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout. In July and August 2014, an extensive series of magnetic field measurements were taken using a pair of submerged Geometrics magnetometers towed behind a survey vessel in four locations in the San Francisco estuary along profiles that cross the cable’s path; these included the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge (BB), the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge (RSR), the Benicia- Martinez Bridge (Ben) and an area in San Pablo Bay (SP) in which a bridge is not present. In this paper, we apply basic formulas that ideally describe the magnetic field from a DC cable summed vectorially with the background geomagnetic field (in the absence of other sources that would perturb the ambient field) to derive characteristics of the cable that are otherwise not immediately observable. Magnetic field profiles from measurements taken along 170 survey lines were inspected visually for evidence of a distinct pattern representing the presence of the cable. Many profiles were dominated by field distortions unrelated to the cable caused by bridge structures or other submerged objects, and the cable’s contribution to the field was not detectable. BB, with 40 of the survey lines, did not yield usable data for these reasons. The unrelated anomalies could be up to 100 times greater than those from the cable. In total, discernible magnetic field profiles measured from 76 survey lines were regressed against the equations, representing eight days of measurement. The modeled field anomalies due to the cable (the difference between the maximum and minimum field along the survey line at the cable crossing) were virtually identical to the measured values. The modeling yielded a pooled cable depth below the bay floor of 2.06 m (±1.46 std dev), and estimated the angle to the horizontal of the imaginary line connecting the crosssectional center of the cable’s two conductors (0.1143 m apart) as 178.9° ±61.9° (std dev) for Ben, 78.6°±37.0° (std dev) for RSR, and 139.9°±27.4° (std dev) for SP. The mean of the eight daily average currents derived from the regressions was 986 ±185 amperes (A) (std dev), as compared to 722 ±95 A (std dev) provided by Trans Bay Cable LLC. Overall, the regressions based on fundamental principles (Biot Savart law) and the vectorial summation of cable and geomagnetic fields provide estimates of cable characteristics consistent with plausible expectations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Calibration of a two-color soft x-ray diagnostic for electron temperature measurement
The two-color soft x-ray (SXR) tomography diagnostic on the Madison Symmetric Torus is capable of making electron temperature measurements via the double-filter technique; however, there has been a 15% systematic discrepancy between the SXR double-filter (SXR{sub DF}) temperature and Thomson scattering (TS) temperature. Here we discuss calibration of the Be filters used in the SXR{sub DF} measurement using empirical measurements of the transmission function versus energy at the BESSY II electron storage ring, electron microprobe analysis of filter contaminants, and measurement of the effective density. The calibration does not account for the TS and SXR{sub DF} discrepancy, and evidence from experiments indicates that this discrepancy is due to physics missing from the SXR{sub DF} analysis rather than instrumentation effects.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
STELLAR DIAMETERS AND TEMPERATURES. III. MAIN-SEQUENCE A, F, G, AND K STARS: ADDITIONAL HIGH-PRECISION MEASUREMENTS AND EMPIRICAL RELATIONS
Based on CHARA Array measurements, we present the angular diameters of 23 nearby, main-sequence stars, ranging from spectral types A7 to K0, 5 of which are exoplanet host stars. We derive linear radii, effective temperatures, and absolute luminosities of the stars using Hipparcos parallaxes and measured bolometric fluxes. The new data are combined with previously published values to create an Angular Diameter Anthology of measured angular diameters to main-sequence stars (luminosity classes V and IV). This compilation consists of 125 stars with diameter uncertainties of less than 5%, ranging in spectral types from A to M. The large quantity of empirical data is used to derive color-temperature relations to an assortment of color indices in the Johnson (BVR{sub J} I{sub J} JHK), Cousins (R{sub C} I{sub C}), Kron (R{sub K} I{sub K}), Sloan (griz), and WISE (W{sub 3} W{sub 4}) photometric systems. These relations have an average standard deviation of {approx}3% and are valid for stars with spectral types A0-M4. To derive even more accurate relations for Sun-like stars, we also determined these temperature relations omitting early-type stars (T{sub eff} > 6750 K) that may have biased luminosity estimates because of rapid rotation; for this subset the dispersion is only {approx}2.5%. We find effective temperatures in agreement within a couple of percent for the interferometrically characterized sample of main-sequence stars compared to those derived via the infrared flux method and spectroscopic analysis.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
A long-term study of aerosol–cloud interactions and their radiative effect at the Southern Great Plains using ground-based measurements
Empirical estimates of the microphysical response of cloud droplet size distribution to aerosol perturbations are commonly used to constrain aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models. Instead of empirical microphysical estimates, here macroscopic variables are analyzed to address the influence of aerosol particles and meteorological descriptors on instantaneous cloud albedo and the radiative effect of shallow liquid water clouds. Long-term ground-based measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program over the Southern Great Plains are used. A broad statistical analysis was performed on 14 years of coincident measurements of low clouds, aerosol, and meteorological properties. Here two cases representing conflicting results regarding the relationship between the aerosol and the cloud radiative effect were selected and studied in greater detail. Microphysical estimates are shown to be very uncertain and to depend strongly on the methodology, retrieval technique and averaging scale. For this continental site, the results indicate that the influence of the aerosol on the shallow cloud radiative effect and albedo is weak and that macroscopic cloud properties and dynamics play a much larger role in determining the instantaneous cloud radiative effect compared to microphysical effects. On a daily basis, aerosol shows no correlation with cloud radiative properties (correlation = -0.01 ± 0.03), whereas the liquid water path shows a clear signal (correlation = 0.56 ± 0.02).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Sanov and central limit theorems for output statistics of quantum Markov chains
In this paper, we consider the statistics of repeated measurements on the output of a quantum Markov chain. We establish a large deviations result analogous to Sanov’s theorem for the multi-site empirical measure associated to finite sequences of consecutive outcomes of a classical stochastic process. Our result relies on the construction of an extended quantum transition operator (which keeps track of previous outcomes) in terms of which we compute moment generating functions, and whose spectral radius is related to the large deviations rate function. As a corollary to this, we obtain a central limit theorem for the empirical measure. Such higher level statistics may be used to uncover critical behaviour such as dynamical phase transitions, which are not captured by lower level statistics such as the sample mean. As a step in this direction, we give an example of a finite system whose level-1 (empirical mean) rate function is independent of a model parameter while the level-2 (empirical measure) rate is not.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Temperature retrievals from satellite radiance measurements - An empirical method
This paper presents a method for using satellite measurements to interpolate vertical temperature soundings between radiosonde stations. The calculations presented show that especially in the 1000-800 mb layer, where linear methods of temperature retrieval usually contain large errors, the proposed method reduces the errors substantially. The method finds a set of coefficients, which when multiplied by corresponding measured radiance quantities, yield zero temperature error at a radiosonde station. This derived set of coefficients is then applied to satellite radiance measurements at places between the radiosonde stations. The computations show, for example, that the average absolute error in the layer 1000-800 mb is only 0.3 K when the corresponding 'minimum-information' method error was 2.9 K. The method may be most applicable to measurements from geostationary satellites, but should also be applicable to measurements from polar orbiting satellites under certain conditions.
Fritz, S.↗
Direct Measurement of Diffusion Coefficients: Evidence for Diffusive Stochastic Heating in Collisionless Plasmas
Open questions in collisionless plasma dissipation can be addressed using space-based observations in different astrophysical environments, with implications for both astrophysical and laboratory plasma systems. We study a low-𝛽, highly imbalanced, sub-Alfvénic stream observed by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) to identify and distinguish between signatures of stochastic heating (SH) and resonant heating (RH) by parallel ion cyclotron waves (∥-ICWs). Prior work studying this stream [Trevor A. Bowen et al., Stochastic heating in the sub-Alfvénic solar wind, Phys. Rev. Lett. 135, 255201 (2025)] showed that the SH rate, accounting for intermittency, matched the amplitude of the local energy transfer (LET) rate, while the RH rate did not. This comparison relied on a number of assumptions regarding the nature of the diffusive process and the calculation of the LET rate. We introduce a novel technique of inverting the proton guiding center equation to empirically measure velocity-space diffusion coefficients using three-dimensional proton velocity distribution functions, from the ion electrostatic analyzer (the Solar Probe Analyzer for Ions) on PSP. Measured diffusion coefficients are used to determine phase-space heating rates, leading to a calculation of a fully kinetic heating rate independent of assumptions made in prior work. We show that scale-dependent analytic expressions for SH via noncoherent fluctuations match the empirical measurements from PSP data, provided that we account for intermittency in the heating calculation. In contrast, the derived heating rates for SH that accounts for the effects of the helicity barrier and heating rates for RH via ∥-ICWs do not peak in the same region of velocity space as the empirical measurements, nor do they reach the required magnitude. Our approach provides novel methodology to uniquely identify and constrain heating processes in collisionless plasmas and shows evidence of a Fokker-Planck-like diffusive process in the near-Sun solar wind.
Plasma kinetic theory↗
Measurement and Analysis of Gamma-Rays Emitted From Spent Nuclear Fuel Above 3 MeV
The gamma-ray spectrum of spent nuclear fuel in the 3- to 6-MeV energy range is important for active interrogation since emitted gamma rays emitted from nuclear decay are not expected to interfere with measurements in this energy region. There is, unfortunately, a dearth of empirical measurements from spent nuclear fuel in this region. This work is an initial attempt to partially ll this gap by presenting an analysis of gamma-ray spectra collected from a set of spent nuclear fuel sources using a high-purity germanium detector array. This multi-crystal array possesses a large collection volume, providing high energy resolution up to 16 MeV. The results of these measurements establish the continuum count-rate in the energy region between 3- and 6-MeV. Also assessed is the potential for peaks from passive emissions to interfere with peak measurements resulting from active interrogation delayed emissions. As one of the first documented empirical measurements of passive emissions from spent fuel for energies above 3 MeV, this work provides a foundation for active interrogation model validation and detector development.
delayed gamma rays↗
Measurement of the vapor layer under a dynamic Leidenfrost drop
To understand the Leidenfrost phenomenon, which is the results of formation of a thin vapor layer, the progression of the vapor should be analyzed. However, due to the limitation of measuring techniques, the empirical measurement of the vapor layer under a dynamic Leidenfrost drop as a function of time has not been reported because the vapor is only tens of micrometers thick and forms within a tenth of a millisecond. Therefore, this paper presents a synchrotron X-ray imaging with the precise resolution to overcome the limitation of previous measurement technique. The liquid-vapor interfacial behavior of a drop of ethanol that is being levitated above a flat SiO 2 surface by the Leidenfrost phenomenon is analyzed depending on surface temperature. Measurements suggest that a thin (< 2 μm) vapor layer develops between the surface and the drop; i.e. that the liquid does not contact the solid. The measured thickness of this vapor layer under a dynamic Leidenfrost drop was less than the thickness of the vapor layer estimated by analytical solution of a model of vapor layer thickness for a static Leidenfrost drop. As a result, the new technique presented in this study will support transient numerical simulations or an analytical solution of the vapor layer under a dynamic Leidenfrost drop, and may have applications in research on the effects of artificial surface structure on the Leidenfrost phenomenon.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Prediction of impact sensitivity, heat of formation and heat of explosion using atomic connectivity
In these proceedings we revisit a large collection of explosives and explosive descriptors with the goal of predicting impact sensitivity using only local atomic environments that can be deciphered from molecular SMILES strings as descriptors without utilizing empirically measured values or computationally expensive electronic structure calculations. From the original database of nearly 500 descriptors, removing empirically measured and electronic structure values decreased the number of descriptors to 135, which we reduced to 18 the most important descriptors using Random Forests. The condensed model predicted impact sensitivity with essentially the same accuracy as the existing, more complex model (R 2 = 0.788 and RSME = 0.312), while remaining applicable to all types of explosives (Peroxides, azides, C-Nitros, Nitroamines, Nitrate Esters, etc.). In addition to impact sensitivity, we proposed similar models to accurately predict values heat of formation (ΔH f ) and heat of explosion (Q), with R 2 = 0.966 and 0.916, respectively. In conclusion, the work in these proceedings allows for prediction of explosive performance and sensitivity with only chemical structure information and an estimate of density.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Predictive Modeling and Diagnostic Monitoring of Extreme Science Workflows (Final Report)
This proposal addresses a critical issue of performance prediction identified in the report from the ASCR \Computational Modeling of Big Networks (COMBINE)" workshop: "end-to-end performance is not predictable due to a variety of factors. Even when some performance forecasts or predictions can be made, they often cannot explain the reasons why some predictions fail." We will develop new analytical models to predict the end-to-end performance of scientific workflows on DOE computing infrastructures, and use simulations and experimentation to validate and refine these models, as well as to pinpoint the sources of model inaccuracy. We will also use these models to help diagnose application and infrastructure problems, and to adapt the system based on this diagnosis. This section provides background in the areas relevant to the proposed work. RPI’s specific tasks within the Panorama project are as follows: (1) Develop Aspen-Simulation interface for Workflow Model Driven Simulation. (2) Validate manual performance models of two target workflow scenarios with empirical measurement and simulation. (3) Extend ROSS-Aspen API to simulate workflow descriptions when required. (4) Validate Aspen performance models of two target workflow scenarios with automatic performance model empirical measurement and simulation. (5) Design and implement final system to automatically generate Aspen performance models from workflow descriptions (including methods to compensate for limitations of Aspen analytical models). (6) Validate improved Aspen performance models with target workflow on production infrastructure. To date, all the project milestones assigned to us where reached within the best of our abilities over the course of the project performance period. Below describes the key outcome from our collaborative research in a system named, Durango .
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A second generation experiment in fault-tolerant software
Information was collected on the efficacy of fault-tolerant software by conducting two large-scale controlled experiments. In the first, an empirical study of multi-version software (MVS) was conducted. The second experiment is an empirical evaluation of self testing as a method of error detection (STED). The purpose ot the MVS experiment was to obtain empirical measurement of the performance of multi-version systems. Twenty versions of a program were prepared at four different sites under reasonably realistic development conditions from the same specifications. The purpose of the STED experiment was to obtain empirical measurements of the performance of assertions in error detection. Eight versions of a program were modified to include assertions at two different sites under controlled conditions. The overall structure of the testing environment for the MVS experiment and its status are described. Work to date in the STED experiment is also presented.
Knight, J. C.↗
Quantum chemical calculations for polymers and organic compounds
The relativistic effects of the orbiting electrons on a model compound were calculated. The computational method used was based on 'Modified Neglect of Differential Overlap' (MNDO). The compound tetracyanoplatinate was used since empirical measurement and calculations along "classical" lines had yielded many known properties. The purpose was to show that for large molecules relativity effects could not be ignored and that these effects could be calculated and yield data in closer agreement to empirical measurements. Both the energy band structure and molecular orbitals are depicted.
Lopez, J.↗
1–2.4 μm Near-IR Spectrum of the Giant Planet β Pictoris b Obtained with the Gemini Planet Imager
Using the Gemini Planet Imager located at Gemini South, we measured the near-infrared (1.0–2.4 μm) spectrum of the planetary companion to the nearby, young star β Pictoris. We compare the spectrum obtained with currently published model grids and with known substellar objects and present the best matching models as well as the best matching observed objects. Comparing the empirical measurement of the bolometric luminosity to evolutionary models, we find a mass of 12.9 ± 0.2 M{sub Jup}, an effective temperature of 1724 ± 15 K, a radius of 1.46 ± 0.01 R{sub Jup}, and a surface gravity of logg=4.18±0.01 [dex] (cgs). The stated uncertainties are statistical errors only, and do not incorporate any uncertainty on the evolutionary models. Using atmospheric models, we find an effective temperature of 1700–1800 K and a surface gravity of logg=3.5–4.0 [dex] depending upon the model. These values agree well with other publications and with “hot-start” predictions from planetary evolution models. Further, we find that the spectrum of β Pic b best matches a low surface gravity L2 ± 1 brown dwarf. Finally, comparing the spectrum to field brown dwarfs, we find the the spectrum best matches 2MASS J04062677–381210 and 2MASS J03552337+1133437.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Comparing deflection measurements of a magnetically steerable catheter using optical imaging and MRI
Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an emerging modality for interventional radiology, giving clinicians another tool for minimally invasive image-guided interventional procedures. Difficulties associated with endovascular catheter navigation using MRI guidance led to the development of a magnetically steerable catheter. The focus of this study was to mechanically characterize deflections of two different prototypes of the magnetically steerable catheterin vitro to better understand their efficacy. Methods: A mathematical model for deflection of the magnetically steerable catheter is formulated based on the principle that at equilibrium the mechanical and magnetic torques are equal to each other. Furthermore, two different image based methods for empirically measuring the catheter deflection angle are presented. The first, referred to as the absolute tip method, measures the angle of the line that is tangential to the catheter tip. The second, referred to the base to tip method, is an approximation that is used when it is not possible to measure the angle of the tangent line. Optical images of the catheter deflection are analyzed using the absolute tip method to quantitatively validate the predicted deflections from the mathematical model. Optical images of the catheter deflection are also analyzed using the base to tip method to quantitatively determine the differences between the absolute tip and base to tip methods. Finally, the optical images are compared to MR images using the base to tip method to determine the accuracy of measuring the catheter deflection using MR. Results: The optical catheter deflection angles measured for both catheter prototypes using the absolute tip method fit very well to the mathematical model (R{sup 2} = 0.91 and 0.86 for each prototype, respectively). It was found that the angles measured using the base to tip method were consistently smaller than those measured using the absolute tip method. The deflection angles measured using optical data did not demonstrate a significant difference from the angles measured using MR image data when compared using the base to tip method. Conclusions: This study validates the theoretical description of the magnetically steerable catheter, while also giving insight into different methods and modalities for measuring the deflection angles of the prototype catheters. These results can be used to mechanically model future iterations of the design. Quantifying the difference between the different methods for measuring catheter deflection will be important when making deflection measurements in future studies. Finally, MR images can be used to reliably measure deflection angles since there is no significant difference between the MR and optical measurements.
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
Measurement and Empirical Correlation of Transpiration-Cooling Parameters on a 25 degree Cone in a Turbulent Boundary Layer in Both Free Flight and a Hot-Gas Jet
Transpiration-cooling parameters are presented for a turbulent boundary layer on a cone configuration with a total angle of 250 which was tested in both free flight and in an ethylene-heated high-temperature jet at a Mach number of 2.0. The flight-tested cone was flown to a maximum Mach number of 4.08 and the jet tests were conducted at stagnation temperatures ranging from 937 R to 1,850 R. In general, the experimental heat transfer was in good agreement with the theoretical values. Inclusion of the ratio of local stream temperature to wall temperature in the nondimensional flow rate parameter enabled good correlation of both sets of transpiration data. The measured pressure at the forward station coincided with the theoretical pressure over a sharp cone; however, the measured pressure increased with distance from the nose tip.
Walton, Thomas E., Jr.↗