Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx
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Kin G. Olivares↗
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Performance and operational economics estimates for a coal gasification combined-cycle cogeneration powerplant
A performance and operational economics analysis is presented for an integrated-gasifier, combined-cycle (IGCC) system to meet the steam and baseload electrical requirements. The effect of time variations in steam and electrial requirements is included. The amount and timing of electricity purchases from sales to the electric utility are determined. The resulting expenses for purchased electricity and revenues from electricity sales are estimated by using an assumed utility rate structure model. Cogeneration results for a range of potential IGCC cogeneration system sizes are compared with the fuel consumption and costs of natural gas and electricity to meet requirements without cogeneration. The results indicate that an IGCC cogeneration system could save about 10 percent of the total fuel energy presently required to supply steam and electrical requirements without cogeneration. Also for the assumed future fuel and electricity prices, an annual operating cost savings of 21 percent to 26 percent could be achieved with such a cogeneration system. An analysis of the effects of electricity price, fuel price, and system availability indicates that the IGCC cogeneration system has a good potential for economical operation over a wide range in these assumptions.
Nainiger, J. J.↗
Advanced Cogeneration Technology Economic Optimization Study (ACTEOS)
The advanced cogeneration technology economic optimization study (ACTEOS) was undertaken to extend the results of the cogeneration technology alternatives study (CTAS). Cost comparisons were made between designs involving advanced cogeneration technologies and designs involving either conventional cogeneration technologies or not involving cogeneration. For the specific equipment cost and fuel price assumptions made, it was found that: (1) coal based cogeneration systems offered appreciable cost savings over the no cogeneration case, while systems using coal derived liquids offered no costs savings; and (2) the advanced cogeneration systems provided somewhat larger cost savings than the conventional systems. Among the issues considered in the study included: (1) temporal variations in steam and electric demands; (2) requirements for reliability/standby capacity; (3) availability of discrete equipment sizes; (4) regional variations in fuel and electricity prices; (5) off design system performance; and (6) separate demand and energy charges for purchased electricity.
Nanda, P.↗
Assessment of industrial applications for fuel cell cogeneration systems
The fuel cell energy systems are designed with and without a utility connection for emergency back-up power. Sale of electricity to the utility during periods of low plant demand is not considered. For each of the three industrial applications, conceptual designs were also developed for conventional utility systems relying on purchased electric power and fossil-fired boilers for steam/hot water. The capital investment for each energy system is estimated. Annual operating costs are also determined for each system. These cost estimates are converted to levelized annual costs by applying appropriate economic factors. The breakeven electricity price that would make fuel cell systems competitive with the conventional systems is plotted as a function of naphtha price. The sensitivity of the breakeven point to capital investment and coal price is also evaluated.
Stickles, R. P.↗
Applications of thermal energy storage to process heat and waste heat recovery in the iron and steel industry
The system identified operates from the primary arc furnace evacuation system as a heat source. Energy from the fume stream is stored as sensible energy in a solid medium (packed bed). A steam-driven turbine is arranged to generate power for peak shaving. A parametric design approach is presented since the overall system design, at optimum payback is strongly dependent upon the nature of the electric pricing structure. The scope of the project was limited to consideration of available technology so that industry-wide application could be achieved by 1985. A search of the literature, coupled with interviews with representatives of major steel producers, served as the means whereby the techniques and technologies indicated for the specific site are extrapolated to the industry as a whole and to the 1985 time frame. The conclusion of the study is that by 1985, a national yearly savings of 1.9 million barrels of oil could be realized through recovery of waste heat from primary arc furnace fume gases on an industry-wide basis. Economic studies indicate that the proposed system has a plant payback time of approximately 5 years.
Katter, L. B.↗
Comparison of Integrated Gasifier-Combined Cycle and AFB-steam turbine systems for industrial cogeneration
In the cogeneration technology alternatives study (CTAS) a number of advanced coal fired systems were examined and systems using a integrated coal gasifier IGCC or a fluid bed combustor AFB were found to yield attractive cogeneration results in industrial cogeneration applications. A range of site requirements and cogeneration sizing strategies using ground rules based on CTAS were used in comparing an IGCC and an AFB. The effect of time variations in site requirements and the sensitivity to fuel and electricity price assumptions are examined. The economic alternatives of industrial or utility ownership are also considered. The results indicate that the IGCC system has potentially higher fuel and emission savings and could be an attractive option for utility ownership. The AFB steam turbine system has a potentially higher return on investment and could be attractive assuming industrial ownership.
Nainiger, J. J.↗
Regional characteristics relevant to advanced technology cogeneration development
To assist DOE in establishing research and development funding priorities in the area of advanced energy conversion technoloy, researchers at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory studied those specific factors within various regions of the country that may influence cogeneration with advanced energy conversion systems. Regional characteristics of advanced technology cogeneration possibilities are discussed, with primary emphasis given to coal derived fuels. Factors considered for the study were regional industry concentration, purchased fuel and electricity prices, environmental constraints, and other data of interest to industrial cogeneration.
Manvi, R.↗
An expert system for cogeneration energy system selection
A demonstration expert system has been developed which assists engineers in cogeneration energy system selection by asking them such applications-related questions as the desired electrical and thermal loads, fuel price, and electric rates. The answers given will be interfaced with the expert system's knowledge base to recommend candidate systems. Attention is given to expert system use results obtained for a sample site; their suitability is compared to that of the detailed results obtained by an earlier cogeneration system study.
Birur, G. C.↗
A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 2: Derivation of system energy price equations
The methodology presented is a derivation of the utility owned solar electric systems model. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs including a specified return on investment. Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break-even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero.
Chamberlain, R. G.↗
Reinventing the Solar Power Satellite
The selling price of electrical power varies with time. The economic viability of space solar power is maximum if the power can be sold at peak power rates, instead of baseline rate. Price and demand of electricity was examined from spot-market data from four example markets: New England, New York City, suburban New York, and California. The data was averaged to show the average price and demand for power as a function of time of day and time of year. Demand varies roughly by a factor of two between the early-morning minimum demand, and the afternoon maximum; both the amount of peak power, and the location of the peak, depends significantly on the location and the weather. The demand curves were compared to the availability curves for solar energy and for tracking and non-tracking satellite solar power systems in order to compare the market value of terrestrial and solar electrical power. In part 2, new designs for a space solar power (SSP) system were analyzed to provide electrical power to Earth for economically competitive rates. The approach was to look at innovative power architectures to more practical approaches to space solar power. A significant barrier is the initial investment required before the first power is returned. Three new concepts for solar power satellites were invented and analyzed: a solar power satellite in the Earth-Sun L2 point, a geosynchronous no-moving parts solar power satellite, and a nontracking geosynchronous solar power satellite with integral phased array. The integral-array satellite had several advantages, including an initial investment cost approximately eight times lower than the conventional design.
Landis, Geoffrey A.↗
Analysis of the financial factors governing the profitability of lunar helium-3
Financial factors influencing the profitability of the mining and utilization of lunar helium-3 are examined. The analysis addressed the following questions: (1) which financial factors have the greatest leverage on the profitability of He-3; (2) over what range can these factors be varied to keep the He-3 option profitable; and (3) what ultimate effect could this energy source have on the price of electricity for U.S. consumers. Two complementary methods of analysis were used in the assessment: rate of return on incremental investment required and reduction revenue requirements (total cost to customers) achieved. Some of the factors addressed include energy demand, power generation costs with and without fusion, profitability for D-He(3) fusion, annual capital and operating costs, launch mass and costs, He-3 price, and government funding. Specific conclusions are made with respect to each of the companies considered: utilities, lunar mining company, and integrated energy company.
Kulcinski, G. L.↗
A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 1: Summary
The utility owned solar electric system methodology is generalized and updated. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs (including a specified return on investment). Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero. While the model was designed for photovoltaic generators with a possible thermal energy byproduct, it applicability is not limited to such systems. The resulting owner-dependent methodology for energy generation system assessment consists of a few equations that can be evaluated without the aid of a high-speed computer.
Chamberlain, R. G.↗
Space Based Solar Power
This study evaluates the potential benefits, challenges, and options for NASA to engage with growing global interest in space based solar power (SBSP). Utilizing SBSP entails in-space collection of solar energy, transmission of that energy to one or more stations on Earth, conversion to electricity, and delivery to the grid or to batteries for storage. Experts in both the aerospace and energy sectors are debating the benefits of SBSP as more organizations globally begin SBSP technology development programs. Proponents claim SBSP could deliver large amounts of electricity at competitive prices and with fewer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than terrestrial renewable electricity technologies while accelerating development of the space economy. Skeptics say SBSP has no clear development path and would divert billions of dollars from known terrestrial solutions while damaging the environment. While it is generally understood that SBSP is cost prohibitive and technically infeasible today, this study assesses operating SBSP systems in 2050. Part of NASA’s mission is to innovate for the benefit of humanity – it is through this lens that the Agency weighs whether and how to support SBSP development.
Space Based Solar Power↗
Energy and cost savings results for advanced technology systems from the Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study /CTAS/
The Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS), a program undertaken to identify the most attractive advanced energy conversion systems for industrial cogeneration applications in the 1985-2000 time period, is described, and preliminary results are presented. Two cogeneration options are included in the analysis: a topping application, in which fuel is input to the energy conversion system which generates electricity and waste heat from the conversion system is used to provide heat to the process, and a bottoming application, in which fuel is burned to provide high temperature process heat and waste heat from the process is used as thermal input to the energy conversion system which generates energy. Steam turbines, open and closed cycle gas turbines, combined cycles, diesel engines, Stirling engines, phosphoric acid and molten carbonate fuel cells and thermionics are examined. Expected plant level energy savings, annual energy cost savings, and other results of the economic analysis are given, and the sensitivity of these results to the assumptions concerning fuel prices, price of purchased electricity and the potential effects of regional energy use characteristics is discussed.
Sagerman, G. D.↗
Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study
Even at reduced rates of growth, the demand for electric power is expected to more than triple between now and 1995, and to triple again over the period 1995-2020. Without the development of new power sources and advanced transmission technologies, it may not be possible to supply electric energy at prices that are conductive to generalized economic welfare. Solar power is renewable and its conversion and transmission from space may be advantageous. The goal of this study is to assess the economic merit of space-based photovoltaic systems for power generation and a power relay satellite for power transmission. In this study, satellite solar power generation and transmission systems, as represented by current configurations of the Satellite Solar Station (SSPS) and the Power Relay Satellite (PRS), are compared with current and future terrestrial power generation and transmission systems to determine their technical and economic suitability for meeting power demands in the period of 1990 and beyond while meeting ever-increasing environmental and social constraints.
Source record↗
Photovoltaics as a terrestrial energy source. Volume 2: System value
Assumptions and techniques employed by the electric utility industry and other electricity planners to make estimates of the future value of photovoltaic (PV) systems interconnected with U.S. electric utilities were examined. Existing estimates of PV value and their interpretation and limitations are discussed. PV value is defined as the marginal private savings accruing to potential PV owners. For utility-owned PV systems, these values are shown to be the after-tax savings in conventional fuel and capacity displaced by the PV output. For non-utility-owned (distributed) systems, the utility's savings in fuel and capacity must first be translated through the electric rate structure (prices) to the potential PV system owner. Base-case estimates of the average value of PV systems to U.S. utilities are presented. The relationship of these results to the PV Program price goals and current energy policy is discussed; the usefulness of PV output quantity goals is also reviewed.
Smith, J. L.↗
Coal conversion products Industrial applications
The synfuels economic evaluation model was utilized to analyze cost and product economics of the TVA coal conversion facilities. It is concluded that; (1) moderate yearly future escalations ( 6%) in current natural gas prices will result in medium-Btu gas becoming competitive with natural gas at the plant boundary; (2) utilizing DRI price projections, the alternate synfuel products, except for electricity, will be competitive with their counterparts; (3) central site fuel cell generation of electricity, utilizing MBG, is economically less attractive than the other synthetic fuels, given projected price rises in electricity produced by other means; and (4) because of estimated northern Alabama synfuels market demands, existing conventional fuels, infrastructure and industrial synfuels retrofit problems, a diversity of transportable synfuels products should be produced by the conversion facility.
Warren, D.↗
Assessing Energy-Generating Systems
Economics of user specified thermal and electrical systems analyzed. OMEGA finds normative prices and break-even values of system parameters. Applies to electrical and thermal energy generation systems owned by utility, business or consumer.
Chamberlain, R. G.↗