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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM)

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. The model calculates the net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells). The model can be used to estimate the economics of a well or pad over its lifetime (development through site reclamation) based on (1) the capital and operating costs associated with well/pad development and operations, (2) the revenue associated with oil, gas, and condensate production streams, and (3) accounting for relevant tax policies and asset depreciation applicable for oil and gas operations. The main input for the model is the completion design and production data. Key financial considerations in the model include oil, gas, and condensate market prices, tax-related settings, royalty rates, the discount rate, minimum economic hurdle (IRR) [if performing break-even analysis], and project contingency. The financial consideration can be adjusted to reflect the level of granularity the user requires as input when calculating the economics for a well or pad development. In addition, the model affords users the option to provide their user inputs for all cost categories considered. As a result, the model can be used to generate a multitude of scenario cases for sensitivity analysis of the various financial considerations, as well as production and cost profiles. To make this seamless, the model has the capability for key economic outputs to be exported in large batches through macros-enabled functions on its “Model Output Summary” and “Multi-Well Cost Analysis. The spreadsheet model includes macros and user-defined functions, so the user must enable Excel’s macro capability for the model to function correctly.

Sheriff, Alana↗
DOE OSTI2022

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM): Description and User’s Manual

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. This document serves as the user’s manual for the model with descriptions of the procedures the user must follow to run the model. This document also describes the capabilities of the model and provides the equations that are used by the model to calculate technical quantities and key model outputs including net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells).

Sheriff, Alana↗
DOE OSTI2022

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM): Production Data for UShWEM

The Production Data for UShWEM.xlsx is an Excel file that is formatted and organized similarly to the Production Streams sheet of the FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM). The purpose of this file is to allow the user to import completion design and time-series production data for hundreds of wells into the UShWEM easily and quickly, and have their well data saved safely in an external location. For instructions on how to use the Production Data for UShWEM.xlsx file, see section 2.3 of the FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model: User’s Manual.

Sheriff, Alana↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2

This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

NETL’s Techno-Economic Modeling Resources for Analyzing Decarbonization Strategies Using CCUS

NETL has developed techno-economic models to evaluate the performance characteristics and cost drivers for elements of the carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS/CCS) value chain: CO2 capture, CO2 pipeline transport, CO2 saline storage, and oil production and CO2 storage using CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). These tools can be used individually to evaluate the economic opportunity for specific CCUS components, or they can be used in tandem to assess integrated CCUS systems. An overview and high-level description of the transport and storage models is presented in a poster along with useful outputs that can be generated with each.

Morgan, David↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Reliability and Economic Modeling for Transmission Across Large Regions: A Space Odyssey

Power flow modeling and stability analysis are needed to more-comprehensively assess system reliability but the development of the system portfolios and conditions require use of economic models (e.g., production cost). What are the state of art methods for efficiently linking economic and reliability models to enable examination of multiple snapshots and perform detailed nodal analyses?

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Models are Instrumental in Analyzing Decarbonization Strategies

This presentations provides a high-level overview of the NETL-developed techno-economic models associated with the CO2 transport and CO2 storage components of the carbon capture and storage (CCS)/carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) value chain. It also discusses the models’ capabilities through the discussion of select modeling applications (both internal and external) and highlights current model modifications and future work. It was presented at the CCUS 2023 conference, organized and presented by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), and Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) and held in Houston, Texas, April 25-27, 2023.

Guinan, Allison↗
DOE OSTI2022

NETL’s Techno-Economic Models for Assessing CO2 Pipeline Transport and Geologic Storage

Presentation at Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Workshop: Future Energy Roadmap – Navigating Through the Energy Transition, held in Galveston, Texas, August 22-23, 2022. The presentation provides an overview of the techno-economic models NETL has developed for assessing performance characteristics and cost drivers for CO2 pipeline transport (FECM/NETL CO2 Transport Cost Model or CO2_T_COM), CO2 saline storage (FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model or CO2_S_COM), and oil production and CO2 storage using CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) (FE/NETL CO2 Prophet Model or CO2_Prophet and FE/NETL Onshore CO2 EOR Cost Model or CO2_E_COM). A high-level description of each model is presented along with useful outputs that can be generated with each model. These tools can be used individually to evaluate the economic opportunity for specific CCUS components, or they can be used in tandem to assess an integrated CCUS value chain.

Morgan, David↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parallelized POD-based suboptimal economic model predictive control of a state-constrained Boussinesq approximation

Motivated by an energy efficient building application, we want to optimize a quadratic cost functional subject to the Boussinesq approximation of the Navier-Stokes equations and to bilateral state and control constraints. Since the computation of such an optimal solution is numerically costly, we design an efficient strategy to compute a sub-optimal (but applicationally acceptable) solution with significantly reduced computational effort. We employ an economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy to obtain a feedback control. The MPC sub-problems are based on a linear-quadratic optimal control problem subjected to mixed control and state constraints and a convection-diffusion equation, reduced with proper orthogonal decomposition. Finally, to solve each sub-problem, we apply a primal-dual active set strategy. The method can be fully parallelized, which enables the solution of large problems with real-world parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Herbicide‐resistant weed management with robots: A weed ecological–economic model

The heavy reliance on herbicides for weed control has led to an increase in resistant weeds in the United States. Robotic weed control is emerging as an alternative technology for removing weeds mechanically using artificial intelligence. We develop an integrated weed ecological and economic dynamic (I‐WEED) model to examine the biophysical and economic drivers of adopting robotic weed management and simulate the optimal timing and intensity of robotic adoption within and across growing seasons. We specify a cohort‐based weed growth model that relates yield damages to effective weed density and treats the susceptibility of weeds to herbicides as a renewable resource that can be regenerated by using mechanical weeding robots, due to a fitness cost that makes resistant weeds less prolific. Compared to myopic weed management which ignores resistance development, forward‐looking management leads to earlier adoption of robots and treating robots as complements instead of substitutes to herbicides. This weed management results in adopting fewer robots, deploying robots on a smaller portion of the land, higher profitability, and lower yield loss in the long run, relative to myopic management. Counterintuitively, myopic management leads to a lower resistance level through its higher robot adoption intensity. We also find that a lower level of initial weed seed resistance and/or a higher fitness cost result in a higher level of resistance because they create incentives for farmers to delay the adoption of robotic weed control. Our analysis shows the importance of jointly considering the interactions between weed ecology and economics in analyzing the incentives and effects of robotic weed management on weed resistance.

agricultural robotics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic Model and Analysis for Hydrogen (H2) Pipeline Transportation

Presentation at the 9th ELAEE (Latin American Energy Economics Meeting) July 28th – 30th, 2024 in PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The presentation highlights the FECM/NETL Hydrogen Pipeline Cost Model (H2_P_COM). The model estimates costs for transporting gaseous hydrogen in a pipeline from a source, such as a hydrogen production facility, to a final destination which may be a user of the hydrogen or a distribution center where hydrogen in the pipeline is diverted to multiple end users.

Cunha, Luciane↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tabulated Database of Closed-Loop Geothermal Systems Performance for Cloud-Based Technical and Economic Modeling of Heat Production and Electricity Generation: Preprint

To better understand the heat production, electricity generation performance and economic viability of closed loop geothermal systems in hot-dry-rock, the Closed Loop Geothermal Group, a consortium of several national labs and academic institutions has tabulated time-dependent numerical solutions and levelized cost results of two popular closed loop heat exchanger designs (u-tube and co-axial). The heat exchanger designs were evaluated for two working fluids (water and super-critical CO2) while varying seven continuous independent parameters of interest (i.e., mass flow rate, vertical depth, horizontal extent, borehole diameter, formation gradient, formation conductivity, and injection temperature). The corresponding numerical solutions (approximately 1.2 million per heat exchanger design) are stored as multi-dimensional HDF5 datasets and can be queried at off-grid points using multi-dimensional linear interpolation. A Python script was developed to query this database and estimate time-dependent electricity generation using an Organic Rankine cycle (for water) or direct turbine expansion cycle (for CO2) and perform a cost assessment. This document aims to give an overview of the HDF5 database file and highlights how to read, visualize, and query quantities of interest (e.g., levelized cost of electricity, levelized cost of heat) using the accompanying python scripts. Details regarding the capital, operation, and maintenance and levelized cost calculation using the TEA (techno-economic analysis) script are provided.

co-axial↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Value and Representing Competitiveness of Electricity System Technologies in Economic Models

Evaluating competition between electricity technologies is challenging because it depends on both their costs and their values. While technology costs can typically be estimated from projections of the cost components - capital, fuel, and O&M - estimating a technology's value is more complex due to its dependence on its contributions to multiple different grid services, each with prices that can vary substantially over space and time. In this work, using an electricity model of the contiguous United States, we develop relationships between relative value and share of total generation for major electricity generation technologies which, when paired with projections of technology costs, can be used to estimate technology competitiveness. We identify significant differences in the relationship between relative value and generation share for variable renewable energy (VRE) and non-VRE sources, but we demonstrate that all technologies require consideration of their dynamic values (in addition to cost) when evaluating competitiveness. In addition, we demonstrate that relative value of a technology is substantially impacted by not only its own generation share but also other aspects of the system state, in particular the mix of other technologies present in the system. Finally, we use the developed relative value relationships in combination with projections of future technology costs in a coarse resolution model that competes technologies based on a comprehensive competitiveness metric: profitability-adjusted LCOE (PLCOE). We show that this simple representation of technology competition approximately recovers the generation mix from a detailed model, which is not possible using LCOE alone. Such an approach can be used to improve the representation of technology competition in coarse-resolution models such as integrated assessment models, for which simplified metrics are often needed.

electricity model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon fiber design improvements based on economic models

Circular fiber geometries are predominant in commercial carbon fiber material systems, but the use of this fiber shape has numerous limitations. Circular geometries have continuous symmetry, which is helpful for various processing considerations, but also have the largest possible maximum diffusion thickness for a given fiber area. This characteristic means that circular carbon fibers always have the highest material processing cost and lowest production throughput compared to any other fiber shape with the same area and tow count. To quantify material cost and other benefits for non-circular carbon fiber geometries, process models for polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber production are developed in relationship to the carbon fiber shape, size, and tow count. For a given fiber shape, precursor production costs are shown to favor maximizing fiber size while conversion costs are minimized by the smallest fiber size. These competing cost trends result in a numerically optimal fiber size for a given shape and tow count, while both cost components are decreased by increasing tow count. Cost–performance tradeoffs for three lobe fiber geometries are studied by supplementing the cost trends with a numerical failure model to predict compressive strength for discrete shape variants. The shape selection is shown to be more sensitive to variations in cost than compressive strength while suboptimal shape designs can improve manufacturing robustness and achievable fiber volume fractions. Finally, an optimal three lobe carbon fiber is identified that balances the set of considerations while reducing costs and embodied energy and increasing production throughput compared to a commercial carbon fiber.

Carbon fiber↗
DOE OSTI2026

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗