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At least 19 records

Fine-scale application of WRF-CAM5 during a dust storm episode over East Asia: Sensitivity to grid resolutions and aerosol activation parameterizations

An advanced online-coupled meteorology and chemistry model WRF-CAM5 has been applied to East Asia using triple-nested domains at different grid resolutions (i.e., 36-, 12-, and 4-km) to simulate a severe dust storm period in spring 2010. Analyses are performed to evaluate the model performance and investigate model sensitivity to different horizontal grid sizes and aerosol activation parameterizations and to examine aerosol-cloud interactions and their impacts on the air quality. A comprehensive model evaluation of the baseline simulations using the default Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (AG) aerosol activation scheme shows that the model can well predict major meteorological variables such as 2-m temperature (T2), water vapor mixing ratio (Q2), 10-m wind speed (WS10) and wind direction (WD10), and shortwave and longwave radiation across different resolutions with domain-average normalized mean biases typically within±15%. The baseline simulations also show moderate biases for precipitation and moderate-to-large underpredictions for other major variables associated with aerosol-cloud interactions such as cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud optical thickness (COT), and cloud liquid water path (LWP) due to uncertainties or limitations in the aerosol-cloud treatments. The model performance is sensitive to grid resolutions, especially for surface meteorological variables such as T2, Q2, WS10, and WD10, with the performance generally improving at finer grid resolutions for those variables. Comparison of the sensitivity simulations with an alternative (i.e., the Fountoukis and Nenes (FN) series scheme) and the default (i.e., AG scheme) aerosol activation scheme shows that the former predicts larger values for cloud variables such as CDNC and COT across all grid resolutions and improves the overall domain-average model performance for many cloud/radiation variables and precipitation. Sensitivity simulations using the FN series scheme also have large impacts on radiations, T2, precipitation, and air quality (e.g., decreasing O3) through complex aerosol-radiation-cloud-chemistry feedbacks. The inclusion of adsorptive activation of dust particles in the FN series scheme has similar impacts on the meteorology and air quality but to lesser extent as compared to differences between the FN series and AG schemes. Compared to the overall differences between the FN series and AG schemes, impacts of adsorptive activation of dust particles can contribute significantly to the increase of total CDNC (~45%) during dust storm events and indicate their importance in modulating regional climate over East Asia.

WRF-CAM5, Aerosol activation, adsorptive activatio↗

Extended Accelerated Stress Testing (EAST) of Glass/Glass, Glass/Backsheet and Glass/Transparent Backsheet PV Modules: Influence of EVA and POE Encapsulants: Preprint

This paper presents the indoor extended accelerated stress testing (EAST) results of glass/glass (GG), glass/backsheet (GB) and glass/transparent backsheet (GT) modules having identical cells and two different encapsulant types, ethyl-vinyl-acetate (EVA) and polyolefin-elastomer (POE). Six 4-cell modules having the above-mentioned construction combinations were subjected to extended ultraviolet (UV; 600 kWh/m2), damp-heat (DH; 2000 hours) and thermal-cycling (TC; 600 cycles) tests. The post-stress UV fluorescent imaging, electroluminescent imaging, reflectance spectrophotometry and colorimetry results indicated that the grid finger degradation and encapsulant browning are slightly higher in the GG modules compared to the GB modules. The post-stress IV test results indicated, in general, that the GG/EVA modules tend to perform inferior to the GG/POE modules with the EAST evaluation.

EVA↗

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Large-scale Environments of Mesoscale Convective Systems East of the Rocky Mountains

The spatiotemporal variability and 3-dimensional structures of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) east of the U.S. Rocky Mountains and their large-scale environments are characterized across all seasons using 13 years of high-resolution radar and satellite observations. Long-lived and intense MCSs account for over 50% of warm season precipitation in the Great Plains and over 40% of cold season precipitation in the southeast. The Great Plains has the strongest MCS seasonal cycle peaking in May-June, while in the southeast, MCSs occur year round. Distinctly different large-scale environments across the seasons have significant impact on the structure of MCSs. Spring and fall MCSs commonly initiate under strong baroclinic forcing and favorable thermodynamic environments. MCS genesis frequently occurs in the Great Plains near sunset, although convection is not always surface triggered. Spring MCS features both large and deep convection, with large stratiform rain area and high volume rainfall. In contrast, summer MCSs often initiate under weak baroclinic forcing, featuring a high-pressure ridge with weak low-level convergence acting on the warm, humid air associated with the low-level jet. MCS genesis concentrates east of the Rocky Mountain Front Range and near the southeast coast in the afternoon. The strongest MCS diurnal cycle amplitude extends from the foothills of the Rocky Mountains to the Great Plains. Summer MCSs have the largest and deepest convective features, the smallest stratiform rain area and the lowest rainfall volume. Lastly, winter MCSs are characterized by the strongest baroclinic forcing and the largest MCS precipitation features over the southeast. Implications of the findings to climate modeling are discussed.

Feng, Zhe↗

East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Clouds, Precipitation, and Climate (EAST-AIR CPC )

Aerosols have significant and complex impacts on regional climate in East Asia. Cloud-aerosol-precipitation interaction (CAPI) remains most challenging in climate studies. The quantitative understanding of CAPI requires good knowledge of aerosols, ranging from their formation, composition, transport, as well as their radiative, hygroscopic, and microphysical properties. A comprehensive review is presented here centered on the CAPI based chiefly, but not limited to, publication in the special section named as EAST-AIRcpc, concerning (1) observation of aerosol loading and properties; (2) any relationships between aerosols and meteorological variables affecting CAPI; (3) mechanisms behind CAPI; and (4) quantification of CAPI and their impact on climate. Heavy aerosol loading in East Asia has significant radiative effects by reducing surface radiation, increasing air temperature, and lowering the boundary layer height. A key factor is aerosol absorption which is particularly strong in central China. This absorption can have a wide range of impacts such as creating an imbalance of aerosol radiative forcing at the top and bottom of the atmosphere, leading to inconsistent retrievals of cloud variables from space-borne and ground-based instruments. Aerosol radiative forcing can delay or suppress the initiation and development of convective clouds whose microphysics can be further altered by the microphysical effect of aerosols. For the same cloud thickness, the likelihood of precipitation is influenced by aerosol: suppressing light rain and enhancing heavy rain, delaying but intensifying thunderstorms, and reducing the onset of isolated showers in most parts of China. Rainfall has become more inhomogeneous and more extreme in the heavily polluted urban regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental study of high-k turbulence during an energy confinement degradation phase in EAST ohmic plasmas

In this paper, we present experimental studies of both high-k(r) ( cm(-1), and , respectively; ) and high- ( cm(-1), and , respectively; ) turbulence behavior during an ohmic energy confinement degradation phase in experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST). High-k(r) turbulence from density fluctuation at and high- turbulence from density fluctuation at -0.97 were measured by tangential and poloidal CO2 laser collective scattering diagnostics, respectively. Note that k(r), , and are radial wavenumber, poloidal wavenumber, perpendicular wavenumber and ion gyroradius at electron temperature, respectively. Both high-k(r)/ turbulence power and energy confinement time are found to be temporally correlated to line-averaged electron density n(e) in the plasma current flat-top phase (I-p = 0.4 MA): when the n(e) shows continuous increase/decrease, the high-k(r)/ turbulence power increases/decreases correspondingly and the shows corresponding decrease/increase; the stable n(e) is related to stable both and high-k(r)/ turbulence power. Statistical results of high-k(r)/ turbulence power versus further imply that high-k(r)/ turbulence shows a strong correlation with plasma energy confinement degradation in high line-averaged n(e) condition, but high-k(r) and high- turbulence have relatively weak and no dependence on the transition between linear range in low-n(e) condition and energy confinement degradation in the high-n(e) condition, respectively. Moreover, profiles of electron temperature T-e and n(e) as well as their normalized gradients in a part of high- density fluctuation measurement region also have been given to qualitatively explain the enhancement of turbulence power with the increase of line-averaged n(e).

EAST tokamak↗

Evaluation of a multi-scale WRF-CAM5 simulation during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) has been applied at multiple scales over Eastern China (EC) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) to evaluate how increased horizontal resolution with physics designed for a coarser resolution climate model impacts aerosols and clouds, and the resulting precipitation characteristics and performance during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Despite large underpredictions in surface aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth, there is good spatial agreement with surface observations of chemical predictions, and increasing spatial resolution tends to improve performance. Model bias and normalized root mean square values for precipitation predictions are relatively small, but there are significant differences when comparing modeled and observed probability density functions for precipitation in EC and YRD. Increasing model horizontal resolution tends to reduce model bias and error for precipitation predictions. The surface and column aerosol loading is maximized between about 32N and 42N in early to mid-May during the 2010 EASM, and then shifts north while decreasing in magnitude during July and August. Changing model resolution moderately changes the spatiotemporal relationships between aerosols, cloud properties, and precipitation during the EASM, thus demonstrating the importance of model grid resolution in simulating EASM circulation and rainfall patterns over EC and the YRD. Results from this work demonstrate the capability and limitations in the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation representation of WRF-CAM5 for regional-scale applications down to relatively fine horizontal resolutions. Further WRF-CAM5 model development and application in this area is needed.

Campbell, Patrick↗

Cold surges and dust events: Establishing the link between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and the Chinese loess record

The Chinese loess/palaeosol succession is one of the most comprehensive and intensively studied archives of Neogene and Quaternary global palaeoclimate events. Its stratigraphic details are widely recognised to indicate close links to the history and function of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) – one of the most active components of the Earth's climate system. But the formal meteorological links between the EAWM and dust emission, both in the present day and in the past, have not been established and with it, the veracity of the loess record as an indicator of the EAWM questioned. Here we show that present day major dust events over northern China, while largely occurring during spring, are nevertheless ‘conditioned’ by the strength of the preceding EAWM. We also demonstrate, for the first time, a close link between the occurrence of dust events and the strength of the EAWM. From these findings, linked to global-scale climate model simulations, we conclude that the Chinese loess succession provides a convincing proxy record of the strength of the East Asian Winter Monsoon.

Geology↗

Tidal energy resource characterization measurements at Cook Inlet’s East Foreland: Velocity and turbulence

To characterize tidal current and turbulence at a top tidal energy site off the East Foreland in Cook Inlet, Alaska, United States, three moorings were deployed for two months between July and August 2021, and a transect survey was conducted over the course of two tidal cycles at the end of the deployment period. Measurements of velocity and turbulence were then analyzed to better understand the site's hydrodynamics and power potential. Analysis reveals that swift, north-flowing flood currents peak at 4~m/s, while south-flowing ebb currents reach just over 3~m/s. Turbulence intensity ranges from 23\% at the seafloor to 8\% near the surface, and the presence of the foreland creates more intense turbulence near-shore during ebb tide than flood. Power availability at the site could be as high as 720~MW, or 13~kW/m$^2$, though the energy available to a marine energy device will be smaller than this estimate because of water-to-wire efficiency and wake losses. The results from this measurement campaign will inform the validation of a high-resolution tidal hydrodynamic model, as well as early tidal energy projects that are beginning to move beyond the prototyping and demonstration stages to full-scale deployments.

McVey, James R.↗

Kinematics and dynamics of the East Pacific Rise linked to a stable, deep-mantle upwelling [Kinematics and dynamics of the East Pacific Rise linked to whole mantel convective motions]

Earth’s tectonic plates are generally considered to be driven largely by negative buoyancy associated with subduction of oceanic lithosphere. In this context, mid-ocean ridges (MORs) are passive plate boundaries whose divergence accommodates flow driven by subduction of oceanic slabs at trenches. We show that over the past 80 million years (My), the East Pacific Rise (EPR), Earth’s dominant MOR, has been characterized by limited ridge-perpendicular migration and persistent, asymmetric ridge accretion that are anomalous relative to other MORs. We reconstruct the subduction-related buoyancy fluxes of plates on either side of the EPR. The general expectation is that greater slab pull should correlate with faster plate motion and faster spreading at the EPR. Moreover, asymmetry in slab pull on either side of the EPR should correlate with either ridge migration or enhanced plate velocity in the direction of greater slab pull. Based on our analysis, none of the expected correlations are evident. This implies that other forces significantly contribute to EPR behavior. We explain these observations using mantle flow calculations based on globally integrated buoyancy distributions that require core-mantle boundary heat flux of up to 20 TW. The time-dependent mantle flow predictions yield a long-lived deep-seated upwelling that has its highest radial velocity under the EPR and is inferred to control its observed kinematics. Lastly, the mantle-wide upwelling beneath the EPR drives horizontal components of asthenospheric flows beneath the plates that are similarly asymmetric but faster than the overlying surface plates, thereby contributing to plate motions through viscous tractions in the Pacific region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Moment Magnitudes of Local/Regional Events from 1D Coda Calibrations in the Broader Middle East Region [Moment Magnitudes of Small to Moderate Size Regional Events from Coda Calibration in the Broader Middle East]

Reliable moment magnitude estimates for seismic events in the Middle East region can be difficult to obtain due to the uneven distribution of stations, the complex tectonic structure, and regions of high attenuation. In this paper, we take advantage of the many new broadband seismic stations that have become available through improved national networks and numerous temporary deployments. We make coda envelope-amplitude measurements for 2247 events recorded by 68 stations over 13 narrow frequency bands ranging between 0.03 and 8 Hz. The absolute scaling of these spectra was calculated based on independent waveform modeling solutions of the moment magnitudes for a subset of these events to avoid circularity. Using our 1D path calibrations, we determined coda-based magnitudes for a majority of the events. We obtain fairly good agreement with waveform-modeled seismic moments for the larger events (Mw>4.5) at low frequencies (<0.7 Hz). As expected, the coda-derived source spectra become increasingly scattered at higher frequencies (>0.7 Hz) because of unaccounted 2D path effects, as well as mixing of both Sn coda and Lg coda, which have different attenuation behavior. This scatter leads to increased variance in the magnitudes estimated for smaller events in which low-frequency amplitudes are below the noise levels and the higher frequencies are the only signals available. We quantify the expected variance in coda envelope amplitudes as a function of frequency using interstation scatter as our metric. Finally, the net results of this study provide thousands of new 1D coda magnitude estimates for events in the broad region, as well as the necessary initial starting model for use in a new related 2D coda study (Pasyanos et al., 2016).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Contribution of urbanization to the increase of extreme heat events in an urban agglomeration in east China

Abstract The urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is emblematic of China's rapid urbanization during the past decades. Based on homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature data, the contributions of urbanization to trends of summer extreme temperature indices (ETIs) in YRD are evaluated. Dynamically classifying the observational stations into urban and rural, this study presents unexplored changes in temperature extremes during the past four decades in YRD and quantifies the amplification of the positive trends in ETIs by the urban heat island effect. Overall, urbanization contributes to more than one third of the increase of intensity of extreme heat events in the region, which is comparable to the contribution of greenhouse gases. Compared to rural stations, more notable shifts to the right in the probability distribution of temperature and ETIs are found in urban stations. The rapid urbanization in YRD has resulted in large increases in the risk of heat extremes.

Yang, Xuchao↗

Persistent organic pollutants, skull size and bone density of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from East Greenland 1892–2015 and Svalbard 1964–2004

Highlights: • Density in East Greenland males decreased over time. • Size in East Greenland females tented to decrease over time. • Size was highest in Svalbard polar bears. • Density was positive correlated to POPs. • Environmental changes and POPs may affect bone density and size. We investigated skull size (condylobasal length; CBL) and bone mineral density (BMD) in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from East Greenland (n = 307) and Svalbard (n = 173) sampled during the period 1892–2015 in East Greenland and 1964–2004 at Svalbard. Adult males from East Greenland showed a continuous decrease in BMD from 1892 to 2015 (linear regression: p < 0.01) indicating that adult male skulls collected in the early pre-pollution period had the highest BMD. A similar decrease in BMD over time was not found for the East Greenland adult females. However, there was a non-significant trend that the skull size of adult East Greenland females was negatively correlated with collection year 1892–2015 (linear regression: p = 0.06). No temporal change was found for BMD or skull size in Svalbard polar bears (ANOVA: all p > 0.05) nor was there any significant difference in BMD between Svalbard and East Greenland subpopulations. Skull size was larger in polar bears from Svalbard than from East Greenland (two-way ANOVA: p = 0.003). T-scores reflecting risk of osteoporosis showed that adult males from both East Greenland and Svalbard are at risk of developing osteopenia. Finally, when correcting for age and sex, BMD in East Greenland polar bears increased with increasing concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) i.e. ΣPCB (polychlorinated biphenyls), ΣHCH (hexachlorohexane), HCB (hexachlorobenzene) and ΣPBDE (polybrominated diphenyl ethers) while skull size increased with ΣHCH concentrations all in the period 1999–2014 (multiple linear regression: all p < 0.05, n = 175). The results suggest that environmental changes over time, including exposure to POPs, may affect bone density and size of polar bears.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the contributions of Northern Hemisphere dust sources to dust outflow from East Asia

Mineral dust aerosols can substantially influence the Earth's climate by altering the radiation budget and modifying cloud microphysical and radiative properties. Through long-range transport, dust aerosols could have a global impact. Here, using a fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and the tracer-tagging technique, we conduct quasi-global simulations to investigate the characteristics of dust intercontinental transport in the Northern Hemisphere and the source contributions to dust outflow from East Asia. Model results show that total dust emission from the main deserts (i.e., North Africa desert (NFD), Middle East desert (MED) and East Asia desert (EAD)) is about 4531 Tg yr-1, in which 66% is from NFD, 24% is from MED and 10% is from EAD. During long-range transport, the NFD and MED dust plumes are separated into two branches by the Tibetan Plateau, with higher dust concentration of 4 µgm-3 in the northern branch (37° N-60° N). The imported dust mass from NFD and MED to East Asia is 16.0 Tg yr-1 and 33.8 Tg yr-1, respectively; the local dust mass emitted from EAD can circumnavigate and import about 0.41 Tg yr-1 of dust into East Asia. As part of the “Asian outflow”, the MED and NFD dust is transported above 600 hPa with concentration of 2 µgm-3, while the EAD dust is mainly transported below 600 hPa with concentration of 3 µgm-3. The total outflow dust mass from East Asia is 12.0, 9.7 and 7.7 Tg yr-1 from EAD, NFD and MED, respectively. Dust particles dominate the aerosol mass concentration with a fraction of 56.5% in southern East Asia and 75.4% in northern East Asia. Moreover, dust number from EAD dominates the total aerosol number north of 37oN below 600 hPa, with a size range of 0.156–0.625 µm, but the NFD dust number is mainly above 600 hPa. MED dust number dominates the total column aerosol number south of 37 oN, with a size range of 0.312–0.625 µm. Quantifying dust source contributions and the associated dust number loading and size distribution over East Asia is important for understanding the role of East Asian dust outflow in climate and hydrological cycle.

dust aerosol, mass flux, source contribution, dust↗

Central and Eastern North America Ground-Motion Characterization (NGA-East)

This document is the final project report of the Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA) project (NGA-East). The NGA-East objective was to develop a new ground-motion characterization (GMC) model for the CENA region. The GMC model consists of a set of new ground-motion models (GMMs) for median and standard deviation of ground motions and their associated weights to be used with logic-trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). NGA-East is a large multidisciplinary project coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), at the University of California. The project has two components: (1) a set of scientific research tasks, and (2) a model-building component following the framework of the “Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3” (Budnitz et al. 1997; NRC 2012). Component (2) is built on the scientific results of component (1) of the NGA-East project. This report documents the tasks under component (2) of the project. Under component (1) of NGA-East, several scientific issues were addressed, including: (a) development of a new database of ground motion data recorded in CENA; (b) development of a regionalized ground-motion map for CENA, (c) definition of the reference site condition; (d) simulations of ground motions based on different methodologies; and (e) development of numerous GMMs for CENA. The scientific tasks of NGA-East were all documented as a series of PEER reports. The scope of component (2) of NGA-East was to develop the complete GMC. This component was designed as a SSHAC Level 3 study with the goal of capturing the ground motions’ center, body, and range of the technically defensible interpretations in light of the available data and models. The SSHAC process involves four key tasks: evaluation, integration, formal review by the Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP), and documentation (this report). Key tasks documented in this report include review and evaluation of the empirical groundmotion database, the regionalization of ground motions, and screening sets of candidate GMMs. These are followed by the development of new median and standard deviation GMMs, the development of new analyses tools for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in ground motions, and the documentation of implementation guidelines of the complete GMC for PSHA computations. Appendices include further documentation of the relevant SSHAC process and additional supporting technical documentation of numerous sensitivity analyses results. The PEER reports documenting component (1) of NGA-East are also considered “attachments” to the current report and are all available online on the PEER website (https://peer.berkeley.edu/). The final NGA-East GMC model includes a set of 17 GMMs defined for 24 ground-motion intensity measures, applicable to CENA in the moment magnitude range of 4.0 to 8.2 and covering distances up to 1500 km. Standard deviation models are also provided for site-specific analysis (single-station standard deviation) and for general PSHA applications (ergodic standard deviation). Adjustment factors are provided for consideration of source-depth effects and hanging-wall effects, as well as for hazard computations at sites in the Gulf Coast region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗