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Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System

Use of Global Positioning System Measurements to Determine Geocentric Coordinates and Variations in Earth Orientation

Geocentric tracking station coordinates and short-period Earth-orientation variations can be measured with Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. Unless calibrated, geocentric coordinate errors and changes in Earth orientation can lead to significant deep-space tracking errors. Ground-based GPS estimates of daily and subdaily changes in Earth orientation presently show centimeter-level precision. Comparison between GPS-estimated Earth-rotation variations, which are the differences between Universal Time 1 and Universal Coordinated Time (UT1-UTC), and those calculated from ocean tide models suggests that observed subdaily variations in Earth rotation are dominated by oceanic tidal effects. Preliminary GPS estimates for the geocenter location (from a 3-week experiment) agree with independent satellite laser-ranging estimates to better than 10 cm. Covariance analysis predicts that temporal resolution of GPS estimates for Earth orientation and geocenter improves significantly when data collected from low Earth-orbiting satellites as well as from ground sites are combined. The low Earth GPS tracking data enhance the accuracy and resolution for measuring high-frequency global geodynamical signals over time scales of less than 1 day.

R P Malla

Model Spread in Tropical Low Cloud Feedback Tied to Overturning Circulation Response to Warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

Atmospheric dynamics

Final Thermal Design and Thermal Vacuum Testing of the StarBurst Instrument

The StarBurst Multimessenger Pioneer is a small satellite mission serving as a wide-field gamma-ray observatory designed to capture the initial emissions of short gamma-ray bursts, electromagnetic signatures of neutron star mergers. This paper presents the final thermal design and analysis of the StarBurst Instrument, comprising the bus-to-instrument interface plate, control electronics, and twelve crystal detector units, which form the core of the mission’s science capability. The passive thermal control system design requires consideration of restrictive keep-out zones, unknown orbital parameters, and narrow temperature limits of the detectors. Also summarized is the instrument level thermal vacuum cycle test, correlated model refinements, and updated model results. Following successful completion of the instrument test campaign, the hardware was integrated with the spacecraft bus for spacecraft level testing, including additional thermal vacuum testing. The results from the spacecraft level thermal vacuum test will further inform the instrument thermal model, ensuring accurate flight temperature predictions. StarBurst launches as a secondary payload in 2027 and has a mission duration of at least one year.

StarBurst

Earth Observations and Integrative Models in Support of Food and Water Security

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries.

Water Resources

Spacecraft Conceptual Design for Returning Entire Near-Earth Asteroids

In situ resource utilization (ISRU) in general, and asteroid mining in particular are ideas that have been around for a long time, and for good reason. It is clear that ultimately human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit will have to utilize the material resources available in space. Historically, the lack of sufficiently capable in-space transportation has been one of the key impediments to the harvesting of near-Earth asteroid resources. With the advent of high-power (or order 40 kW) solar electric propulsion systems, that impediment is being removed. High-power solar electric propulsion (SEP) would be enabling for the exploitation of asteroid resources. The design of a 40-kW end-of-life SEP system is presented that could rendezvous with, capture, and subsequently transport a 1,000-metric-ton near-Earth asteroid back to cislunar space. The conceptual spacecraft design was developed by the Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at the Glenn Research Center in collaboration with the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) team assembled to investigate the feasibility of an asteroid retrieval mission. Returning such an object to cislunar space would enable astronaut crews to inspect, sample, dissect, and ultimately determine how to extract the desired materials from the asteroid. This process could jump-start the entire ISRU industry.

solar electric propulsion

Hydrology Copilot: A Cloud-Native Ai System for Hydrological Data Analysis

The emergence of AI-driven Earth observation systems promises to broaden access to petabyte-scale geospatial data beyond domain specialists. However, translating this vision into operational scientific infrastructure requires addressing fundamental challenges in data virtualization, code transparency, and domain-specific reasoning. We present Hydrology Copilot, a cloud-native AI framework for natural-language-driven analysis of Earth observation data. To demonstrate operational capabilities at scale, we implement the system using NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System version 3 (NLDAS-3), which provides surface meteorological forcing and land-surface model output across North and Central America at 1-km resolution, from which drought diagnostics are derived. The system integrates five core contributions: (1) scalable data virtualization using Kerchunk-based cloud optimized access, achieving a 1.5 to 4.6 times improvement in I/O latency across benchmark queries spanning regional single-day extractions (4.6 times speedup) to continental monthly aggregations (1.5 times speedup); (2) transparent code generation through Microsoft Azure AI Foundry agents that expose executable Python workflows for scientific verification; (3) persistent conversational memory enabling multi-turn analytical discourse across sessions; (4) intelligent query validation that enforces dataset boundaries and resolves ambiguous requests before execution; and (5) a multi-agent architecture coordinating query parsing, code generation, and visualization. We evaluate the system through drought-monitoring workflows, demonstrating reliable code generation, accurate results validated against reference computations and the operational U.S. Drought Monitor, and efficient operation across increasingly complex tasks. By bridging natural-language interfaces with rigorous hydrological analysis, Hydrology Copilot advances beyond proof-of-concept demonstrations to provide a deployable framework for operational Earth science applications.

Data virtualization

The Earth Observing System (EOS) nickel-hydrogen battery

Information is given in viewgraph form on the Earth Observing System (EOS) nickel hydrogen battery. Information is given on the life evaluation test, cell characteristics, acceptance and characterization tests, and the battery system description.

Bennett, Charles W.

NASA University Research Centers: Technical Advances in Aeronautics, Space Sciences and Technology, Earth Systems Sciences, Global Hydrology, and Education

This volume chronicles the proceedings of the 1998 NASA University Research Centers Technical Conference (URC-TC '98), held on February 22-25, 1998, in Huntsville, Alabama. The University Research Centers (URCS) are multidisciplinary research units established by NASA at 11 Historically Black Colleges or Universities (HBCU's) and 3 Other Minority Universities (OMU's) to conduct research work in areas of interest to NASA. The URC Technical Conferences bring together the faculty members and students from the URC's with representatives from other universities, NASA, and the aerospace industry to discuss recent advances in their fields.

T L Coleman

Power and Propulsion Element Steerable High Gain Antenna Lunar Transit Thermal Analysis Tracking Methodology

The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) is an ion thruster propulsion spacecraft developed as an element of Space Reactor (SR-1) Freedom to provide propulsion, communications and power for the spacecraft. PPE was originally being developed for the use with the lunar orbiting space station Gateway as one of the first two planned elements. PPE was to be launched with the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) element in a configuration called the Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV) that would arrive at a Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) around the Moon via a lunar transit spiral trajectory phase. The PPE communication system is equipped with two Steerable High Gain Antennas (SHGA) each steered by a two-axis gimbal (TAG) mechanism. A thermal analysis was conducted during the near-Earth spiral phase of the mission using Thermal Desktop (TD). This analysis utilized multiple axis Earth tracking articulators in combination with SINDA system internal environmental heating symbols to produce accurate Earth ground station tracking communication system temperatures. This presentation provides an overview of the communication system thermal model and the analysis methodology.

Thermal Analysis

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka

Anticipating Optical Availability in Hybrid RF/FSO Links Using RF Beacons and Deep Learning

Radiofrequency (RF) communications offer reliable but low data rates and energy-inefficient satellite links, while free-space optical (FSO) promises high bandwidth but struggles with disturbances imposed by atmospheric effects. A hybrid RF/FSO architecture aims to achieve optimal reliability along with high data rates for space communications. Accurate prediction of dynamic ground-to-satellite FSO link availability is critical for routing decisions in low-earth orbit constellations. In this paper, we propose a system leveraging ubiquitous RF links to proactively forecast FSO link degradation prior to signal drops below threshold levels. This enables pre-calculation of rerouting to maximally maintain high data rate FSO links throughout the duration of weather effects. We implement a supervised learning model to anticipate FSO attenuation based on the analysis of RF patterns. Through the simulation of a dense lower earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a simulated satellite network, highlighting the balance between predictive accuracy and prediction duration. An emulated cloud attenuation model is proposed to provide insight into the temporal profiles of RF signals and their correlation to FSO channel dynamics. Our investigation sheds light on the trade-offs between prediction horizon and accuracy arising from RF beacon numbers and proximity.

FSO availability

In-Orbit Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) Battery Switch

A viewgraph presentation outlines the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) power system and battery history. ERBS spacecraft and battery cell failures are listed with the reasons for failure. The battery management decision and stabilization of the batteries is discussed. Present battery operations are shown to be successful.

Ahmad, Anisa

Assessment of Near-Angle Scatter on Exo-Earth Coronagraphy

Near-Angle Scatter (NAS) of the host star’s light into the coronagraph dark hole may limit the ability of a potential Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) to detect and characterize an Earth-like planet around a Sun-like star. This paper summarizes a 5-year investigation of the impact of NAS on high-contrast coronagraphy. Science requirements were flowed down to a draft flux ratio noise ratio (FRN) error budget with allocations for NAS. The modeled sources of NAS include correlated (low and mid-spatial) surface structure, uncorrelated surface microroughness and coating structure, particulate contamination, micrometeoroid impacts and polarization leakage. The paper develops specifications for these sources of scattered light that meet their FRN error budget allocations, distinguishing between scatter that can and cannot be modulated. The development process utilizes an analytical expression that predicts scatter throughput into the dark hole based on BRDF/BSDF. Using this relationship, Photon Engineering performed a FRED® straylight analysis of the HWO EAC-1 (Exploratory Analytical Case #1) coronagraph to parametrically study predicted scattered light contrast in the dark hole. The model revealed that primary mirror microroughness or contamination is not a significant source of scattered light; the most critical surfaces are the smallest and those located closest to the coronagraph focal plane mask. The assessment found that uncorrelated microstructure, contamination, and micrometeoroid impacts require more investigation and potential significant sources of unmodulated scattered light, and highlights that slow thermal wavefront drift is an order of magnitude more impactful than fast mechanical jitter.

coronagraphy

Coding Performance of the Probe-Orbiter-Earth Communication Link

The coding performance of the Probe-Orbiter-Earth communication link is analyzed and compared for several cases. It is assumed that the coding system consists of a convolutional code at the Probe, a quantizer and another convolutional code at the Orbiter, and two cascaded Viterbi decoders or a combined decoder on the ground.

D Divsalar

A Unified Scaling Framework for Comparative Analysis of Major Electrical Machine Topologies

This paper presents a unified framework for comparing major electrical machine topologies under identical output and thermal constraints, with emphasis on supply-chain-aware selection among rare-earth-intensive, reduced-rare-earth, and rare-earth-free solutions. Using power factor and air-gap flux density as the principal descriptors, the framework links topology choice to relative size, copper demand, magnet dependence, cost sensitivity, and inertia. To support robust early-stage screening, the deterministic scaling model is combined with uncertainty representation, Monte Carlo scenario propagation, and hesitationaware ranking. The results show that rare-earth-rich machines remain compact and dense, whereas reduced-rare-earth and rare-earth-free alternatives become more attractive under specific material-risk and cost scenarios.

Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)