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Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030

The ocean plays an essential role in regulating Earth’s climate, influencing weather conditions, providing sustenance for large populations, moderating anthropogenic climate change, encompassing massive biodiversity, and sustaining the global economy. Human activities are changing the oceans, stressing ocean health, threatening the critical services the ocean provides to society, with significant consequences for human well-being and safety, and economic prosperity. Effective and sustainable monitoring of the physical, biogeochemical state and ecosystem structure of the ocean, to enable climate adaptation, carbon management and sustainable marine resource management is urgently needed. The Argo program, a cornerstone of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), has revolutionized ocean observation by providing real-time, freely accessible global temperature and salinity data of the upper 2,000m of the ocean (Core Argo) using cost-effective simple robotics. For the past 25 years, Argo data have underpinned many ocean, climate and weather forecasting services, playing a fundamental role in safeguarding goods and lives. Argo data have enabled clearer assessments of ocean warming, sea level change and underlying driving processes, as well as scientific breakthroughs while supporting public awareness and education. Building on Argo’s success, OneArgo aims to greatly expand Argo’s capabilities by 2030, expanding to full-ocean depth, collecting biogeochemical parameters, and observing the rapidly changing polar regions. Providing a synergistic subsurface and global extension to several key space-based Earth Observation missions and GOOS components, OneArgo will enable biogeochemical and ecosystem forecasting and new long-term climate predictions for which the deep ocean is a key component. Driving forward a revolution in our understanding of marine ecosystems and the poorly-measured polar and deep oceans, OneArgo will be instrumental to assess sea level change, ocean carbon fluxes, acidification and deoxygenation. Emerging OneArgo applications include new views of ocean mixing, ocean bathymetry and sediment transport, and ecosystem resilience assessment. Implementing OneArgo requires about $100 million annually, a significant increase compared to present Argo funding. OneArgo is a strategic and cost-effective investment which will provide decision-makers, in both government and industry, with the critical knowledge needed to navigate the present and future environmental challenges, and safeguard both the ocean and human wellbeing for generations to come.

ARGO↗

Comparisons of the v11.1 Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) X CO2 Measurements With GGG2020 TCCON

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) is NASA's first Earth observation satellite mission dedicated to studying the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on a global scale. The observations of reflected sunlight are inverted in a retrieval algorithm to produce estimates of the dry air mole-fractions of CO 2 (X CO2 ). The OCO-2 Level 2 data release, version 11.1 (v11.1) retrievals from the Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) algorithm, includes significant improvements in the X CO2 data product compared to older OCO-2 data versions. This work compares the v11.1 X CO2 from OCO-2 against X CO2 estimates collected from a global ground-based network known as the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), OCO-2's primary validation source. The OCO-2 project provides a version of the Level 2 data product, called “lite” files that include calibrated and bias-corrected XCO2 values, accessible together with all OCO-2 data products through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). This work shows that OCO-2 X CO2 observations made between September 2014 and December 2023, after quality filtering and the application of an averaging kernel correction, agree well with coincident TCCON data for all OCO-2 observational modes of land (nadir, glint, target) and ocean (glint). The aggregated, bias-corrected, and quality-filtered absolute average bias values are less than or equal to 0.20 parts per million (ppm) globally for all OCO-2 observation modes, where the biases do not indicate a statistically significant time dependence. The land nadir/glint mode has the lowest bias value of −0.03 ± 0.85 ppm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observation of a Knotted Electron Diffusion Region in Earth's Magnetotail Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental plasma process that alters the magnetic field topology and releases magnetic energy. Most numerical simulations and spacecraft observations assume a two‐dimensional diffusion region, with the electron diffusion region (EDR) embedded in the same plane as the ion diffusion region (IDR) and a uniform guide field throughout. Using observations from Magnetospheric Multiscale mission, we report a non‐coplanar, knotted EDR in Earth's magnetotail current sheet. The reconnection plane of the knotted EDR deviates by approximately 38° from that of the IDR, with the guide field exhibiting both a 38° directional shift and a twofold increase in amplitude. Moreover, the Hall magnetic field is bipolar in the EDR but quadrupolar in the IDR, indicating different Hall current structures at electron and ion scales. These observations highlight the importance of three‐dimensional effects and illustrate the complexity of multiscale coupling between the EDR and IDR during reconnection studies.

diffusion region↗

slewpy

slewpy is a Python package that allows the simulation of the science operations of an astrophysics space satellite mission. slewpy allows users to specify an astronomical target list with observing priorities and a satellite configuration (i.e., orbit and various satellite parameters). Taking these inputs, slewpy can be used to run a time-resolved simulation of an astrophysics mission and outputs simulated target observations given constraints such as satellite slewing rates between targets, observing time on a given target, and Sun-, Earth-, and Moon-limb observing constraints. slewpy provides the tools to test astrophysics space satellite mission designs against observing requirements for a given science case.

Geringer-Sameth, Alex [Lawrence Livermore National↗

Southern Hemisphere Polar Infrared Radiation Experiment (SHIRE) Field Campaign Report

An extended-range atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) instrument to be deployed to Scott Base (78 S, 166 E) in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica for the purpose of synergizing with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-InfraRed Experiment (PREFIRE) satellite mission (https://prefire.ssec.wisc.edu/), examining the closure of atmospheric thermal emission, and providing validation for PREFIRE. The PREFIRE mission is the first satellite mission to map Earth’s spectrally resolved thermal emission, from 5 to 50 microns, over seasonal to annual timescales. These new observations represent the beginning of an intensive examination of the nature of thermal emission from Earth (emission from both the surface and atmosphere). A primary requirement of the PREFIRE mission is to provide validation of the retrieved variables. Numerous field sites in the Arctic (such as the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska observatory and Summit Station, Greenland) have existing instrumentation to facilitate validation, leaving an observational gap in Antarctica. Through SHIRE, we propose to establish a temporary, intensive measurement site in Antarctica to ensure that both poles are suitably represented, and benefit from this state-of-the art science. This will also allow Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric radiative states to be compared and contrasted. For SHIRE specifically, we also propose further objectives to examine the spectrally resolved thermal radiative closure of the polar atmosphere and the historical changes in Antarctic radiative forcing, using previous Antarctic field campaigns, such as the ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Evolution from the Chromosphere to the Heliosphere in the 2021 October 28 Solar Eruption

We perform a detailed study of the energetics for a well-observed solar eruption and flare that occurred on 2021 October 28. This event included a GOES class X1.0 flare, a global extreme-UV (EUV) wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that reached speeds of >2000 km s −1 . The event was observed from a variety of spacecraft in NASA’s Heliophysics System Observatory, including multiple missions near Earth, STEREO-A off the Sun-Earth line, and Solar Orbiter, near the Sun-Earth line at about 0.8 au. Using remote sensing, in situ observations, and in some cases scaling laws based on previous observations, we characterize the following quantities: free magnetic energy, energy in nonthermal electrons, energy in nonthermal ions, bolometric energy, energy deposited in the chromosphere, thermal energy radiated in the flare loops, energy dissipated by the EUV wave, CME kinetic and gravitational potential energy, CME energy flux in the heliosphere, and the energy partition in the CME shock. We find that the total energy released during the event is consistent with estimates of the pre-event stored magnetic energy, and the CME kinetic + potential energy dominates the energy partition.

solar coronal mass ejection shocks↗

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of UKESM aerosol size and composition using ATom measurements indicates missing marine aerosol formation mechanisms

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate through their interactions with radiation and clouds, yet large uncertainties remain in their simulation by global models. This study evaluates the United Kingdom Earth System Model version 1.1 (UKESM1.1) using global-scale aircraft observations from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, focusing on aerosol lifecycle processes in the remote marine atmosphere. We assess model performance in simulating aerosol precursor vapours, number size distributions, chemical composition, and environmental conditions. Several process improvements are tested, including sulfuric acid-ammonia nucleation, ammonium nitrate scheme, methanesulfonic acid condensation, and low-temperature isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol formation. Model biases differ significantly between the upper troposphere (UT) and the marine boundary layer (MBL). In the UT, UKESM1.1 overestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles while underestimating accumulation mode, indicating insufficient growth. In the MBL, the model overestimates primary aerosols (e.g. seasalt) and precursor gases but underestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles, even after incorporating updated nucleation and ammonium nitrate scheme. The persistence of low aerosol number concentrations, despite overestimated precursors, suggests missing formation pathways likely involving other species such as iodine, amines, and organic vapours. These limitations result in an unbalanced cloud condensation nuclei budget that over-relies on primary emissions. Sensitivity tests reveal that model outputs are strongly influenced by dimethyl sulfide emissions and vapour condensation schemes. Our results highlight the need for future model development to prioritise mechanistic representation of currently missing aerosol sources, rather than relying on empirical tuning, to improve aerosol-climate interaction estimates.

He, Xu-Cheng [Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom);↗

3D Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment at kennaook Cape Grim (3D-CAPE-k) Field Campaign Report

The objective of this campaign was to complement the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s Cloud And Precipitation Experiment at kennaook (CAPE-k) in northwest Tasmania by deploying scanning, fixed pointing angle, and in situ aerosol, cloud, and precipitation remote-sensing instruments during the last six months of the experiment. These instruments provided a three-dimensional (3D) context to the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) vertically pointing observations collected at the kennaook Cape Grim (KCG) site and captured a portion of the life cycle of the clouds before and after the passage over the AMF2 vertical column. These 3D cloud measurements will be used in the near future to 1) investigate how the vertical profiles of aerosol and cloud properties are representative of the broader area and how these properties evolve during the portion of the cloud life cycle captured by the scanning instruments, 2) quantify how accurate the cloud fraction derived with assumptions from vertically pointing observations are compared with direct 3D cloud fraction measurements, 3) evaluate cloud fraction and liquid water path in the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator–Convective-scale (ACCESS-C) forecast model, and 4) evaluate aerosol and cloud products from the European Space Agency/Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (ESA/JAXA) Earth Cloud Aerosol Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) mission using the scanning measurements, offering more chances of exact collocation, thereby complementing the statistical approach we are planning to employ with AMF2 observations for that same purpose.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗

Statistical Study of Energy Dissipation in Magnetic Structures During Turbulent Reconnection in the Earth's Magnetotail

Magnetic reconnection is a ubiquitous plasma phenomenon that plays a critical role in particle heating and energization. During reconnection, the topology of magnetic field rearranges, depositing energy into the surrounding plasma through bulk flow, thermal heating, or non-thermal particle acceleration. While the pathways of this transformation from magnetic energy into kinetic have been studied extensively in recent years through theoretical or case-by-case observations, comprehensive statistical studies remain limited. In this paper, we present a statistical investigation using data from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, and detail the particle energization mechanisms in magnetic structures found near reconnecting regions in turbulent Earth's magnetotail. We find that electrons with motion perpendicular to the magnetic field dominate $\vec{j}$ ⋅ $\vec{E}$ dissipation. In contrast to the conventional picture of unidirectional energy transfer to particles by laminar two-dimensional (2D) reconnection, we find that energy exchange within magnetic structures during turbulent reconnection tends to be bidirectional with only a small positive bias from electromagnetic fields to particles. Specific electron energization mechanisms are quantified, including those due to parallel electric field, Fermi energization from curvature drift, betatron heating from magnetic field inhomogeneity, and polarization drift.

Wang, Rachel [Princeton University, NJ (United Sta↗

Editorial: Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age

Editorial on the Research Topic Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age The near-Earth space environment is not only an operational hazard for space missions, but also a scientific laboratory for advancing our understanding and prediction of space plasma populations. This Research Topic is organized around three interconnected themes: observational datasets, machine-learning (ML) model development, and the discovery of new physical insights through those models. Its primary goal is to highlight the emerging capabilities in space environment prediction that are enabled, or will be enabled, by integrating advanced techniques—including AI/ML methods—with long-term curated datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DarkNESS: A skipper-CCD nanosatellite for dark matter searches

The Dark matter Nanosatellite Equipped with Skipper Sensors (DarkNESS) deploys a recently developed skipper-CCD architecture with sub-electron readout noise in low Earth orbit (LEO) to investigate potential signatures of dark matter (DM). The mission addresses two interaction channels: electron recoils from strongly interacting sub-GeV DM and X-rays produced through decaying DM. Orbital observations avoid attenuation that limits ground-based measurements, extending sensitivity reach for both channels. The mission proceeds toward launch following laboratory validation of the instrument. A launch opportunity has been secured through Firefly Aerospace’s DREAM 2.0 program, awarded to the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). As a result, this will constitute the first use of skipper-CCDs in space and evaluate their suitability for low-noise X-ray and single-photon detection in future space observatories.

Alpine, Phoenix [University of Illinois, Urbana-Ch↗

DarkNESS: A skipper-CCD NanoSatellite for Dark Matter Searches

The Dark matter Nanosatellite Equipped with Skipper Sensors (DarkNESS) deploys a recently developed skipper-CCD architecture with sub-electron readout noise in low Earth orbit (LEO) to investigate potential signatures of dark matter (DM). The mission addresses two interaction channels: electron recoils from strongly interacting sub-GeV DM and X-rays produced through decaying DM. Orbital observations avoid attenuation that limits ground-based measurements, extending sensitivity reach for both channels. The mission proceeds toward launch following laboratory validation of the instrument. A launch opportunity has been secured through Firefly Aerospace's DREAM 2.0 program, awarded to the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). This will constitute the first use of skipper-CCDs in space and evaluate their suitability for low-noise X-ray and single-photon detection in future space observatories.

Alpine, Phoenix [Illinois U., Urbana (main)] (ORCI↗

ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) 2024 Workshop Report

The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is to improve the understanding and representation of cloud and aerosol processes and their interaction with the Earth's surface in Earth system models (ESMs) by providing comprehensive field observations and supporting advanced data analytics. The ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) was chartered in March 2019 to help improve the performance and scientific impact of ARM measurements of clouds and precipitation. The group aims to identify and address gaps in measurement capabilities, maximize the scientific impact of ARM data, and effectively serve the scientific community. To achieve these goals, the group includes experts in cloud and precipitation science, as well as representatives from ARM infrastructure, including instrument mentors, engineers, data quality officers, and data product translators. Prior to CPMSG, early discussions on cloud and precipitation measurements primarily focused on improving radar systems, but have since evolved to include a broader scope involving radiometers and other instruments. Since its formation, the CPMSG has gathered feedback using science traceability matrices. CPMSG aims to keep these as living documents to show the measurement needs, scientific drivers, roadblocks, maturity of measurements and retrievals, and pathways to model improvements. The group meets quarterly to discuss and prioritize measurement and operational improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) 2024 Workshop Report

The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is to improve the understanding and representation of cloud and aerosol processes and their interaction with the Earth's surface in Earth system models (ESMs) by providing comprehensive field observations and supporting advanced data analytics. The ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) was chartered in March 2019 to help improve the performance and scientific impact of ARM measurements of clouds and precipitation. The group aims to identify and address gaps in measurement capabilities, maximize the scientific impact of ARM data, and effectively serve the scientific community. To achieve these goals, the group includes experts in cloud and precipitation science, as well as representatives from ARM infrastructure, including instrument mentors, engineers, data quality officers, and data product translators. Prior to CPMSG, early discussions on cloud and precipitation measurements primarily focused on improving radar systems, but have since evolved to include a broader scope involving radiometers and other instruments. Since its formation, the CPMSG has gathered feedback using science traceability matrices. CPMSG aims to keep these as living documents to show the measurement needs, scientific drivers, roadblocks, maturity of measurements and retrievals, and pathways to model improvements. The group meets quarterly to discuss and prioritize measurement and operational improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Full Device Evaluation of Metal Halide Perovskite Solar Cells in Low Earth Orbit Aboard the International Space Station

This study investigates how sustained low Earth orbit (LEO) exposure affects metal halide perovskite (MHP) thin films and perovskite solar cells (PSCs). It examines samples deployed on the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) 15 and 16 missions. Five methylammonium lead iodide (MAPI) thin films are deployed on MISSE-16, each with distinct UV filters to selectively attenuate AM0 spectral bands. While post-flight optical analysis reveals that the least UV-exposed film exhibits the highest emission and lowest non-radiative recombination rate, no clear correlation is observed among the rest, and all MAPI films maintained excellent integrity throughout the mission. MISSE-15 deployed eight PSCs with diverse structures, MHP compositions, and contact materials. Post-flight analysis reveals stable, highly emissive MHPs, but damaged contacts due to ion migration, which caused loss of electrical response. The MISSE missions demonstrate MHPs' suitability for space applications, while highlighting the need for improved interfacial layers and contact materials to enhance charge carrier mobility, prevent ion migration, and improve charge carrier extraction efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗