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At least 19 records

Accurate Determination of Comet and Asteroid Orbits Leading to Collision With Earth

Movements of the celestial bodies in our solar system inspired Isaac Newton to work out his profound laws of gravitation and motion; with one or two notable exceptions, all of those objects move as Newton said they would. But normally harmonious orbital motion is accompanied by the risk of collision, which can be cataclysmic. The Earth s moon is thought to have been produced by such an event, and we recently witnessed magnificent bombardments of Jupiter by several pieces of what was once Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Other comets or asteroids may have met the Earth with such violence that dinosaurs and other forms of life became extinct; it is this possibility that causes us to ask how the human species might avoid a similar catastrophe, and the answer requires a thorough understanding of orbital motion. The two red square flags with black square centers displayed are internationally recognized as a warning of an impending hurricane. Mariners and coastal residents who know the meaning of this symbol and the signs evident in the sky and ocean can act in advance to try to protect lives and property; someone who is unfamiliar with the warning signs or chooses to ignore them is in much greater jeopardy. Although collisions between Earth and large comets or asteroids occur much less frequently than landfall of a hurricane, it is imperative that we learn to identify the harbingers of such collisions by careful examination of an object s path. An accurate determination of the orbit of a comet or asteroid is necessary in order to know if, when, and where on the Earth s surface a collision will occur. Generally speaking, the longer the warning time, the better the chance of being able to plan and execute action to prevent a collision. The more accurate the determination of an orbit, the less likely such action will be wasted effort or, what is worse, an effort that increases rather than decreases the probability of a collision. Conditions necessary for a collision to occur are discussed, and warning times for long-period comets and near-Earth asteroids are presented.

Roithmayr, Carlos M.↗

Human vertical eye movement responses to earth horizontal pitch

The vertical eye movements in humans produced in response to head-over-heels constant velocity pitch rotation about a horizontal axis resemble those from other species. At 60 degrees/s these are persistent and tend to have non-reversing slow components that are compensatory to the direction of rotation. In most, but not all subjects, the slow component velocity was well characterized by a rapid build-up followed by an exponential decay to a non-zero baseline. Super-imposed was a cyclic or modulation component whose frequency corresponded to the time for one revolution and whose maximum amplitude occurred during a specific head orientation. All response components (exponential decay, baseline and modulation) were larger during pitch backward compared to pitch forward runs. Decay time constants were shorter during the backward runs, thus, unlike left to right yaw axis rotation, pitch responses display significant asymmetries between paired forward and backward runs.

NASA Program Space Physiology and Countermeasures↗

Space Borne Event Timer

The Space Borne Event Timer is a part of the NASA laser ranging system that is intended to operate aboard the Space Shuttle orbiting over California. The object is to measure, by laser ranging, the earth movement along the San Andreas fault and possibly forecast future earthquakes. A number of cube reflector targets will be placed along both sides of the fault. The ranging system aboard the Space Shuttle will fire a burst of laser pulses at each target and detect the reflected light. Time differences between pulses from the two sides of the fault will indicate earth displacements. The Space Borne Event Timer is a CAMAC compatible system that provides extremely accurate timing data and controls the operation of the ranging system. For each event the time is given in 19.53 increments from the instant of firing the laser to the instant the reflected light is received back, within a range of 130 days.

Turko, B.↗

To assess the value of satellite photographs in resource evaluation on a national scale

The author has identified the following significant results. Small scale ERTS-1 imagery has enabled investigators to study large areas at a time. The imagery appears to confirm a new theory that Archean greenstone belts in NE Botswanna and SW Rhodesia are co-extensive and that these so-called schist relics formerly covered a much wider area than is apparent now. The central parts of the region bounded by the schist relics are believed to have suffered granitization. A remnant of an older drainage system to the southwest of the Okavango Swamps, which seems to have been newly discovered on the imagery, may be an indication of the seismic instability of the region. Even quite small earth movements in the swamps could radically affect the direction of water flow. The imagery has proved successful in showing areas infested by the water weed Salvinia Auriculata in the Chobe and Zambesi rivers. This will be immensely valuable in later surveys on the ground. If the satellite was to have continued working, the imagery would have enabled workers to determine the extent of encroachment of the weed without recourse to field observations.

Hepworth, J. V.↗

Recent and late quaternary changes in water level

Water level changes of both the Great Lakes and the sea are described along with methods of analyzing water level data. The influence of elastic deformation of the earth and viscosity is discussed. Causes of water level changes reviewed include: earth movements, geoid changes, storm surges or meteorological phenomena, and melting ice in Antarctica, Greenland, and the mountain glaciers.

R. I. Walcott↗

Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring

The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .

Rodell, Matthew↗

Spatial coding of eye movements relative to perceived earth and head orientations during static roll tilt

This purpose of this study was to examine the spatial coding of eye movements during static roll tilt (up to +/-45 degrees) relative to perceived earth and head orientations. Binocular videographic recordings obtained in darkness from eight subjects allowed us to quantify the mean deviations in gaze trajectories along both horizontal and vertical coordinates relative to the true earth and head orientations. We found that both variability and curvature of gaze trajectories increased with roll tilt. The trajectories of eye movements made along the perceived earth-horizontal (PEH) were more accurate than movements along the perceived head-horizontal (PHH). The trajectories of both PEH and PHH saccades tended to deviate in the same direction as the head tilt. The deviations in gaze trajectories along the perceived earth-vertical (PEV) and perceived head-vertical (PHV) were both similar to the PHH orientation, except that saccades along the PEV deviated in the opposite direction relative to the head tilt. The magnitude of deviations along the PEV, PHH, and PHV corresponded to perceptual overestimations of roll tilt obtained from verbal reports. Both PEV gaze trajectories and perceptual estimates of tilt orientation were different following clockwise rather than counterclockwise tilt rotation; however, the PEH gaze trajectories were less affected by the direction of tilt rotation. Our results suggest that errors in gaze trajectories along PEV and perceived head orientations increase during roll tilt in a similar way to perceptual errors of tilt orientation. Although PEH and PEV gaze trajectories became nonorthogonal during roll tilt, we conclude that the spatial coding of eye movements during roll tilt is overall more accurate for the perceived earth reference frame than for the perceived head reference frame.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Phoenix Climate: Employing NASA Earth Observations to Conduct Site Suitability Analyses on Residential Tree Planting Initiatives in Phoenix, AZ

Phoenix, Arizona is the hottest city in the United States, with daytime summer temperatures consistently reaching upwards of 100°F. As these daytime temperatures continue to climb, heat-related illnesses and morbidity also increase. The City of Phoenix hopes to secure funding to implement the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) residential tree equity accelerator program. This funding will be used for targeted investments in underserved neighborhoods to increase tree canopy cover, engaging 5,000 households across selected neighborhoods. By partnering with the City of Phoenix, the Arizona Office of Heat Mitigation, and Arizona State University’s Urban Climate Research Center, our team identified residential neighborhoods, block groups within qualified census tracts, and parcels to be prioritized in the ARPA program. We conducted an analysis using NASA Earth observations, movement and heat exposure data, sociodemographic data, and tree canopy data. For Earth observations, we acquired daytime land surface temperature from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and land cover classification from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD). The project will support the prioritization of city resources and tree plantings based on community vulnerability, as well as help initiate public engagement efforts and literacy with an interactive dashboard and GIS layers that contribute to the city’s property information portal.

Alison Bautista↗

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗

EQSIM: Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

The great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 is one of the most recognized, and sobering, demonstrations of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, these events still present a significant danger to life and economic security. To mitigate the potential devastation of future earthquakes and better prepare for these inevitable events, researchers are turning to high-performance computers to simulate the underlying geophysical processes and accurately quantify associated risks to critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗