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At least 19 records

A1 moonquakes - Problems of determining their epicenters and mechanisms

Review of some of the problems associated with the determination of epicenters and mechanisms of moonquakes with the aid of the four seismic stations now operating on the moon. No decoupling of compressional, transverse, and surface waves takes place there, no clear first arrivals can be found, and coherence between vertical and horizontal components on a seismograph stationed on the moon is poor. New techniques for locating epicenters are presented.

Meissner, R.↗

Earthquake epicenters and fault intersections in central and southern California

The author has identifed the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provided evidence for the existence of short transverse fault segments lodged between faults of the San Andreas system in the Coast Ranges, California. They indicate that an early episode of transverse shear has affected the Coast Ranges prior to the establishment of the present San Andreas fault. The fault has been offset by transverse faults of the Transverse Ranges. It appears feasible to identify from ERTS-1 imagery geomorphic criteria of recent fault movements. Plots of historic earthquakes in the Coast Ranges and western Transverse Ranges show clusters in areas where structures are complicated by interaction of tow active fault systems. A fault lineament apparently not previously mapped was identified in the Uinta Mountains, Utah. Part of the lineament show evidence of recent faulting which corresponds to a moderate earthquake cluster.

Abdel-Gawad, M.↗

Epicenter location by analysis for interictal spikes

The MEG recording is a quick and painless process that requires no surgery. This approach has the potential to save time, reduce patient discomfort, and eliminates a painful and potentially dangerous surgical step in the treatment procedure.

epilepsy MEG interictal spikes artificial neural n↗

Improved Regional and TeleseismicP-Wave Travel-Time Prediction and Event Location Using a Global 3D Velocity Model

A global validation dataset of 116 seismic events and 20,977 associated Pn and P arrivals is used to assess travel-time prediction and event location accuracy for the global-scale, 3D, P-wave velocity model called LLNL-G3Dv3 (Simmons et al., 2012). Strong regional trends that are observed for ak135 travel-time residuals are largely removed when LLNL-G3Dv3 is used for prediction. The 25th–75th quantile spread of travel-time residuals is reduced by 30%–40% at teleseismic distances, and the spread is reduced by ~60% at regional distances (<16°). Epicenter error decreases when more data are used to constrain event locations until more than ~40 arrivals times are used. At which point, epicenter error reduction tends to plateau. Median epicenter errors for the ak135 and LLNL-G3Dv3 models plateau at ~8:0 and ~5:5 km, respectively, for teleseismic P datasets. Median epicenter errors for the ak135 and LLNL-G3Dv3 models plateau at ~12:0 and ~4:0 km, respectively, for regional Pn datasets. We demonstrate that spatially correlated travel-time residual errors for the ak135 model lead to increasing epicenter error when ~40 to ~100 Pn arrivals are used to constrain the location. The effect of correlated error is mitigated by LLNL-G3Dv3, for which epicenter error steadily decreases to ~4 km when 100 Pn arrivals are used. The median area of 0.95 epicenter probability bounds for ak135 and LLNL-G3Dv3 are 1811 and 758 km 2 , respectively. The ak135 ellipses are inflated to achieve the desired rate of true events occurring inside the probability region, whereas LLNLG3Dv3 error ellipses based on empirical residual distributions cover the true location at the expected rate because location bias is minimal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Satellite Infrared Radiation Measurements Prior to the Major Earthquakes

This work describes our search for a relationship between tectonic stresses and increases in mid-infrared (IR) flux as part of a possible ensemble of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that may be related to earthquake activity. We present and &scuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of Jan 22, 2003 Colima (M6.7) Mexico, Sept. 28 .2004 near Parkfield (M6.0) in California and Northern Sumatra (M8.5) Dec. 26,2004. Previous analysis of earthquake events has indicated the presence of an IR anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. Our procedures analyze nighttime satellite data that records the general condtion of the ground after sunset. We have found from the MODIS instrument data that five days before the Colima earthquake the IR land surface nighttime temperature rose up to +4 degrees C in a 100 km radius around the epicenter. The IR transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +1 degree C and is significantly smaller than the IR anomaly around the Colima epicenter. Ground surface temperatures near the Parkfield epicenter four days prior to the earthquake show steady increase. However, on the night preceding the quake, a significant drop in relative humidity was indicated, process similar to those register prior to the Colima event. Recent analyses of continuous ongoing long- wavelength Earth radiation (OLR) indicate significant and anomalous variability prior to some earthquakes. The cause of these anomalies is not well understood but could be the result of a triggering by an interaction between the lithosphere-hydrosphere and atmospheric related to changes in the near surface electrical field and/or gas composition prior to the earthquake. The OLR anomaly usually covers large areas surrounding the main epicenter. We have found strong anomalies signal (two sigma) along the epicentral area signals on Dec 21, five days prior to the Northern Sumatra quake compared to the reference field for December 2001-2004 periods. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between a thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

Comparison of Standardized Uptake Value-Based Positron Emission Tomography and Computed Tomography Target Volumes in Esophageal Cancer Patients Undergoing Radiotherapy

Purpose: To study various standardized uptake value (SUV)-based approaches to ascertain the best strategy for delineating metabolic tumor volumes (MTV). Methods and Materials: Twenty-two consecutive previously treated esophageal cancer patients with positron emission tomography (PET) imaging and computed tomography (CT)-based radiotherapy plans were studied. At the level of the tumor epicenter, MTVs were delineated at 11 different thresholds: SUV {>=}2, {>=}2.5, {>=}3, {>=}3.5 (SUV{sub n}); {>=}40%, {>=}45%, and {>=}50% of the maximum (SUV{sub n%}); and mean liver SUV + 1, 2, 3, and 4 standard deviations (SUV{sub Ln{sigma}}). The volume ratio and conformality index were determined between MTVs, and the corresponding CT/endoscopic ultrasound-based gross tumor volume (GTV) at the epicenter. Means were analyzed by one-way analysis of variance for repeated measures and further compared using a paired t test for repeated measures. Results: The mean conformality indices ranged from 0.33 to 0.48, being significantly (p < 0.05) closest to 1 at SUV{sub 2.5} (0.47 {+-} 0.03) and SUV{sub L4{sigma}} (0.48 {+-} 0.03). The mean volume ratios ranged from 0.39 to 2.82, being significantly closest to 1 at SUV{sub 2.5} (1.18 {+-} 0.36) and SUV{sub L4{sigma}} (1.09 {+-} 0.15). The mean value of the SUVs calculated using the SUV{sub L4{sigma}} approach was 2.4. Conclusions: Regardless of the SUV thresholding method used (i.e., absolute or relative to liver mean), a threshold of approximately 2.5 yields the highest conformality index and best approximates the CT-based GTV at the epicenter. These findings may ultimately aid radiation oncologists in the delineation of the entire GTV in esophageal cancer patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Review of the November 11, 1905 Earthquake: Seismic Intensity Data, Magnitude, and Location Report

The macroseismic location and magnitude of the Shoshone 1905 earthquake has been based on the application of objective and quantitative approaches that produce estimates of earthquake source location and magnitude, and associated uncertainties. The performance of all three approaches applied depends critically on the characteristics of the seismic intensity field. Regional intensity attenuation relations were derived based on a calibration set of earthquakes and then, the procedure was validated using three independent very recent events. The macroseismic epicenter location was determined by either a grid search procedure, the spatial distribution of the sites experiencing the largest intensities, or a combination of both. The macroseismic magnitude estimates are based on the derived regional intensity attenuation relations. There is consistency in the location and magnitude of the November 1905 earthquake as obtained by the three methods. The overlapping region of the 68% bootstrap resampling solutions suggests a reliable epicenter location within 41.550N ? 42.060N and 113.478W ? 112.320W. This region encloses the original Oaks (1992) epicenter location. Macroseismic magnitude estimates range between 5.87 and 6.05.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric perturbations, and to distinguish ionospheric responses to processes of EQ preparation against the effects of other factors. The 2-D snapshots of the electron density over Japan showed abnormal increase over the maximum stress during the night, a few hours before the main shock. Our results from recording atmospheric and ionospheric conditions during the earthquake indicate the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionospheres occurring consistently over regions of maximum stress near the epicenter. Due to their long duration (hours and days) and spatial appearance (only over the Sendai region) these results do not appear to be caused by meteorological or magnetic activity. They reveal the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the earthquake, which indicates new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004).

Ouzonounov, D.↗

Analysis of rupture area of aftershocks caused by twin earthquakes (Case study: 11 April 2012 earthquakes of Aceh-North Sumatra)

The 11 April 2012 earthquakes off-shore Aceh-North Sumatra are unique events for the history of Indonesian earthquake. It is unique because that they have similar magnitude, 8.5 Mw and 8.1 Mw; close to epicenter distance, similar strike-slip focal mechanism, and occuring in outer rise area. The purposes of this research are: (1) comparing area of earthquakes base on models and that of calculation, (2) fitting the shape and the area of earthquake rupture zones, (3) analyzing the relationship between rupture area and magnitude of the earthquakes. Rupture area of the earthquake fault are determined by using 4 different formulas, i.e. Utsu and Seki (1954), Wells and Coppersmith (1994), Ellsworth (2003), and Christophersen and Smith (2000). The earthquakes aftershock parameters are taken from PGN (PusatGempabumiNasional or National Earthquake Information Center) of BMKG (Indonesia Agency Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics). The aftershock epicenters are plotted by GMT’s software. After that, ellipse and rectangular models of aftershock spreading are made. The results show that: (1) rupture areas were calculated using magnitude relationship which are larger than the the aftershock distributions model, (2) the best fitting model for that earthquake aftershock distribution is rectangular associated with Utsu and Seki (1954) formula, (3) the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the larger area of the fault.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Proximal Observations of Epicentral Infrasound Generated by Shallow Low-Magnitude Earthquakes in the Permian Basin, West Texas

Infrasound generated by earthquakes and explosions is generally detected at receivers at epicentral distances of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. However, proximal (<50 km) observations are especially important for low-magnitude earthquakes and low-yield explosions that may not generate signals capable of being detected at great ranges. Here, in this study, we present on the signals detected on an infrasound array 3 km away from two M L 2.9 earthquakes in the Permian Basin of west Texas. Local infrasound (LIS), generated at receivers during the passage of seismic waves, was detected following each earthquake. Epicentral infrasound (EIS), created at or near the epicenter and propagating away as a sound wave, was also detected. Array processing methods show that the EIS signals arrive from the same direction as the earthquake epicenters and at acoustic speeds. To our knowledge, these are the first observations of laterally propagating EIS at proximal ranges following an earthquake of any magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY202 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY2020 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time-separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A search for ELF/VLF emissions induced by earthquakes as observed in the ionosphere by the DE 2 satellite

ELF/VLF data from 63 DE 2 orbits coincident with large (magnitude not less than 5.0) earthquakes were examined individually and compared with control orbits not coincident with earthquakes. No unusual emissions coincident with the passing of the DE 2 satellite near an epicenter within a certain temporal and spatial window were identified for any orbit. About 63 percent of the orbits showed an ELF or VLF emission above 10 micro-V/m in at least one of the 20 channels when the satellite passed near and epicenter; 37 percent were quiet in all channels.

Henderson, T. R.↗

Satellite IR Thermal Measurements Prior to the September 2004 Earthquakes in Central California

We present and discuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of September 18 near Bodie (M5.5) and September 28,2004 near Parkfield(M6.0) in California. Previous analysis of earthquake events have indicated the presence of a thermal anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. The procedures used in our work is to analyze weather satellite data taken at night and to record the general condition where the ground cools after sunset. Two days before the Bodie earthquake lower temperature radiation was observed by the NOAA/AVHRR satellite. This occurred when the entire region was relatively cloud-free. IR land surface nighttime temperature from the MODIS instrument rose to +4 C in a 100 km radius around the Bodie epicenter. The thermal transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +l C and it is significantly smaller than the Parkfield epicenter, however, for that period showed a steady increase 4 days prior to the earthquake and a significant drop of the night before the quake. Geosynchronous weather satellite thermal IR measurements taken every half hour from sunset to dawn, were also recorded for 10 days prior to the Parkfield event and 5 days after as well as the day of the quake. To establish a baseline we also obtained GOES data for the same Julian sets were then used to systematically observe and record any thermal anomaly prior to the events that deviated from the baseline. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between an thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

Ouzounov, D.↗

Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground-motion measurements were available. Development of a global tsunami-warning system utilizing an expanded network of coastal GPS stations was under consideration at the time of reporting the information for this article.

Song, Y. Tony↗

Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku Earthquake Revealed by Joined Satellite and Ground Observations. Preliminary Results

The recent M9 Tohoku Japan earthquake of March 11, 2011 was the largest recorded earthquake ever to hit this nation. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters - outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), GPS/TEC, Low-Earth orbit tomography and critical frequency foF2. These changes characterize the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the onset of this earthquake. Our first results show that on March 8th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data and an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting on this day in the lower ionospheric there was also confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3-11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground based ionosondes, which return to normal after the main earthquake. We found a positive correlation between the atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies and the Tohoku earthquake. This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere/ionosphere to the Great Tohoku earthquake.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku Earthquake Revealed by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations. Preliminary Results

We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the M9 Tohoku Japan earthquake of March 11, 2011. Data include outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), GPS/TEC, Low-Earth orbit ionospheric tomography and critical frequency foF2. Our first results show that on March 8th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data and an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting on this day in the lower ionospheric there was also confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3-11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake The joined preliminary analysis of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters during the M9 Tohoku Japan earthquake has revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere/ionosphere to the Great Tohoku earthquake.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗