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At least 19 records

Securing the legacy of TESS through the care and maintenance of TESS planet ephemerides

Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the TESS mission relies on precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-up characterization studies. We investigate the severity of ephemeris deterioration for simulated TESS planets and find that the ephemerides of 81% of those will have expired (i.e. mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes, impeding the efficient scheduling of follow-up observations) one year after their TESS observations. This rapid deterioration is driven primarily by the relatively short time baseline of TESS observations. In particular, of the simulated planets that would be recommended as potential James Webb Space Telescope targets by Kempton et al. (2018), 80% will have 1 mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes by the earliest time JWST would observe them. The recently-approved extension to the TESS mission means that the ephemerides of most (though not all) primary mission planets will eventually be rescued, but the benefits of these new observations can only be reaped two years after the primary mission observations. Moreover, even with the advent of the TESS mission extension, the ephemerides of most primary mission TESS planets (as well as those newly discovered during the extended mission) will again have expired by the time future facilities such as the ELTs, Ariel and the possible LUVOIR/OST missions come online. We identify categories of TESS planets for which the ephemeris deterioration is most severe, and provide strategies for maintaining their ephemerides fresh through additional follow- up transit observations. We find that the longer the baseline between the TESS and the follow-up observations, the longer the ephemerides stay fresh, and that 51% of simulated primary mission TESS planets will require space-based observations to refresh their ephemerides.

Surveys

Precise GPS ephemerides from DMA and NGS tested by time transfer

It was shown that the use of the Defense Mapping Agency's (DMA) precise ephemerides brings a significant improvement to the accuracy of GPS time transfer. At present a new set of precise ephemerides produced by the National Geodetic Survey (NGS) has been made available to the timing community. This study demonstrates that both types of precise ephemerides improve long-distance GPS time transfer and remove the effects of Selective Availability (SA) degradation of broadcast ephemerides. The issue of overcoming SA is also discussed in terms of the routine availability of precise ephemerides.

W. Lewandowski

Securing the Legacy of TESS through the Care and Maintenance of TESS Planet Ephemerides

Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission relies on precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-up characterization studies. We investigate ephemeris deterioration for simulated TESS planets and find that the ephemerides of 81% of those will have expired (i.e., 1σ mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes) 1 yr after their TESS observations. We verify these results using a sample of TESS planet candidates as well. In particular, of the simulated planets that would be recommended as James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) targets by Kempton et al., ∼80% will have midtransit time uncertainties >30 minutes by the earliest time JWST would observe them. This rapid deterioration is driven primarily by the relatively short time baseline of TESS observations. We describe strategies for maintaining TESS ephemerides fresh through follow-up transit observations. We find that the longer the baseline between the TESS and the follow-up observations, the longer the ephemerides stay fresh, and that 51% of simulated primary mission TESS planets will require space-based observations. The recently approved extension to the TESS mission will rescue the ephemerides of most (though not all) primary mission planets, but the benefits of these new observations can only be reaped 2 yr after the primary mission observations. Moreover, the ephemerides of most primary mission TESS planets (as well as those newly discovered during the extended mission) will again have expired by the time future facilities such as the ELTs, Ariel, and the possible LUVOIR/Origins Space Telescope missions come online, unless maintenance follow-up observations are obtained.

Diana Dragomir

Orientation of the JPL Ephemerides, DE 200/LE 200, to the dynamical equinox of J 2000

The lunar and planetary ephemerides, DE 200/LE 200 have been recently produced at JPL. They will form the basis of the ephemerides in the 'Astronomical Almanac' starting in the year 1984. The origin has been referenced to the J 2000 dynamical equinox of the ephemerides themselves. The procedure for this orientation is described here in detail. Analyses of the ephemerides also provide comparisons with the equinox of the FK 4 and with presently adopted values for the earth's obliquity.

Standish, E. M., Jr.

Ephemerides of the major Neptunian satellites determined from earth-based astrometric and Voyager imaging observations

The Voyager project used Neptunian satellite ephemerides to support both navigation and acquisition of scientific data. The development of postencounter ephemerides for the satellites Triton, Nereid, and 1989N1 is discussed. Primary results are the final set of model parameters which generate orbits that best fit both the earth-based satellite observations and data acquired by Voyager. The ephemerides are compared with those generated preencounter, and the accuracy of the final ephemerides is assessed. Mean orbital elements are also provided as a geometrical representation for the satellite orbits.

Jacobson, R. A.

The JPL planetary ephemerides

JPL ephemerides are discussed, with emphasis on what they represent and which aspects are well-determined. The determination of planetary ephemerides using spacecraft ranging data, radar ranging data, lunar laser ranging data, and optical transit data, is examined. Numerical estimates are presented, expected progress in the future is briefly considered, and possible uses for the ephemerides are discussed.

Standish, E. M., Jr.

Planetary ephemerides

Goals and methods are outlined whereby the Jet Propulsion Laboratory is attempting to develop improved ephemerides which accurately reflect the motions of planets as an inertial system. It is demonstrated that in the ideal situation a radar observation is largely independent of the problems usually associated with the precessional motion of the earth's axis and is a reliable method for obtaining inertial mean motions. Based upon the hypothesis that the modern JPL ephemerides are valid in a fixed coordinate system, the implications are explored concerning optical observations of the sun, precession, equinox drift and the relationship between dynamical and universal time scales, as well as comparisons with Newcomb (1898) ephemerides.

Lieske, J. H.

Satellite ephemerides for Voyager Saturn encounter

Satellite ephemerides played an important role in the navigation of the Voyager 1 and 2 Saturn encounters. They were used in the models of the gravitational forces acting on the spacecraft and of the onboard optical navigation measurements. They also were used in predicting the pointing directions of the onboard instruments for satellite scientific observations. This paper describes the form of the Voyager Saturn satellite ephemerides and gives the values of the parameters used in the ephemeris generation. The update of those parameters as part of the optical navigation process is also discussed, and the best Voyager ephemerides are presented and compared to those based on earlier Saturn satellite theories.

Jacobson, R. A.

Ephemerides of the Uranian satellites determined from earth-based astrometric and Voyager imaging observations

Uranian satellite ephemerides were needed by the Voyager project to support both navigation and acquisition of scientific data. This paper outlines the mathematical modeling approach taken to generate those ephemerides and discusses their pre-encounter development, real time updating, and post-encounter refinement. The results presented include the final set of model parameters which generate the ephemerides that best fit the Voyager optical data as well as the earth based observations of the satellites.

Jacobson, R. A.

Numerical planetary and lunar ephemerides - Present status, precision and accuracies

Features of the emphemeris creation process are described with attention given to the equations of motion, the numerical integration, and the least-squares fitting process. Observational data are presented and ephemeride accuracies are estimated. It is believed that radio measurements, VLBI, occultations, and the Space Telescope and Hipparcos will improve ephemerides in the near future. Limitations to accuracy are considered as well as relativity features. The export procedure, by which an outside user may obtain and use the JPL ephemerides, is discussed.

Standish, E. Myles, Jr.

The dynamics of global positioning system orbits and the determination of precise ephemerides

The suggestion made on the basis of the analytical orbit perturbation theory that the errors in the ephemerides of the GPS satellites are due mostly to resonant effects that can be corrected by adjusting a few parameters in a empirical acceleration formula is tested using simulations and actual data analysis. Data from the Spring 1985 Experiment were used to calculate improved ephemerides, and these ephemerides were used in the estimation of the coordinates of GPS stations within the continental United States, previously positioned with VLBI. The results of this test support the idea that the errors are mostly of a resonant nature and can be corrected.

Colombo, Oscar L.

The use of precise ephemerides, ionospheric data, and corrected antenna coordinates in a long-distance GPS time transfer

Over intercontinental distances, the accuracy of The Global Positioning System (GPS) time transfers ranges from 10 to 20 ns. The principal error sources are the broadcast ionospheric model, the broadcast ephemerides and the local antenna coordinates. For the first time, the three major error sources for GPS time transfer can be reduced simultaneously for a particular time link. Ionospheric measurement systems of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) type are now operating on a regular basis at the National Institute of Standards and Technology in Boulder and at the Paris Observatory in Paris. Broadcast ephemerides are currently recorded for time-transfer tracks between these sites, this being necessary for using precise ephemerides. At last, corrected local GPS antenna coordinates are now introduced in GPS receivers at both sites. Shown here is the improvement in precision for this long-distance time comparison resulting from the reduction of these three error sources.

Lewandowski, Wlodzimierz W.

Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

Kostoff, J. L.

Modeling the Uncertainties of Solar System Ephemerides for Robust Gravitational-wave Searches with Pular-timing Arrays

The regularity of pulsar emissions becomes apparent once we reference the pulses’ times of arrivals to the inertial rest frame of the solar system. It follows that errors in the determination of Earthʼs position with respect to the solar system barycenter can appear as a time-correlated bias in pulsar-timing residual time series, affecting the searches for low-frequency gravitational waves performed with pulsar-timing arrays. Indeed, recent array data sets yield different gravitational-wave background upper limits and detection statistics when analyzed with different solar system ephemerides. Crucially, the ephemerides do not generally provide usable error representations. In this article, we describe the motivation, construction, and application of a physical model of solar system ephemeris uncertainties, which focuses on the degrees of freedom (Jupiterʼs orbital elements) most relevant to gravitational-wave searches with pulsar-timing arrays. This model, BAYESEPHEM, was used to derive ephemeris-robust results in NANOGravʼs 11 yr stochastic-background search, and it provides a foundation for future searches by NANOGrav and other consortia. The analysis and simulations reported here suggest that ephemeris modeling reduces the gravitational-wave sensitivity of the 11 yr data set and that this degeneracy will vanish with improved ephemerides and with pulsar-timing data sets that extend well beyond a single Jovian orbital period.

M Vallisneri

Present and future ephemerides: requirements and limitations

This paper discusses the various aspects of the planetary and lunar ephemerides at JPL. First, the question of the independent variable of the ephemerides is reviewed. Next, the paper mentions the navigational requirements of past missions and those expected in the future.

ephemerides navigation

Improved Ephemerides of Pluto

The history of the Pluto ephemerides created at JPL is given. The uncertainties of present and possible future ephemerides are illustrated, and it is shown how rapidly the error grows for any present-day ephemeris of Pluto which is extrapolated into the future - tens of thousands of kilometers after only a decade. Continuing the observations into the future will not only reduce the extrapolation time but time will provide a substantial improvement to the ephemeris itself.

ephemerides

Planetary ephemerides

Planetary ephemerides accuracy and navigation during interplanetary missions, discussing machine readable ephemerides for outer planets

Melbourne, W. G.

Improved ephemerides of the Galilean satellites

Over 4800 earth-based observations of Jupiter's Galilean satellites have been analyzed in order to develop improved ephemerides of the satellites for the Voyager mission, using the new theory of motion of the Galilean satellites. Included are over 1700 eclipses of the satellites by Jupiter spanning the interval 1878-1974, 85 mutual events (eclipses and occultations) observed in 1973, and over 2900 exposures on photographic plates from 1967-1978. The resulting ephemerides (labeled E-2) were employed for the Voyager I encounter and are in error by less than 200 km at the time of Jupiter close approach. A very small (0.066 deg) amplitude of the Laplacian free libration is indicated by the data.

Lieske, J. H.