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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Inter-Disciplinary Validation of Pre Earthquake Signals. Case Study for Major Earthquakes in Asia (2004-2010) and for 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

We carried out multi-sensors observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which we found, associated with the earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation, temperature and concentration of electrons in the ionosphere, radon/ion activities, and air temperature/humidity in the atmosphere. We used satellite and ground observations and interpreted them with the Lithosphere-Atmosphere- Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of possible paradigms we study and support. We made two independent continues hind-cast investigations in Taiwan and Japan for total of 102 earthquakes (M>6) occurring from 2004-2011. We analyzed: (1) ionospheric electromagnetic radiation, plasma and energetic electron measurements from DEMETER (2) emitted long-wavelength radiation (OLR) from NOAA/AVHRR and NASA/EOS; (3) radon/ion variations (in situ data); and 4) GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements collected from space and ground based observations. This joint analysis of ground and satellite data has shown that one to six (or more) days prior to the largest earthquakes there were anomalies in all of the analyzed physical observations. For the latest March 11 , 2011 Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows again the same relationship between several independent observations characterizing the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling. On March 7th we found a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation observed from satellite data and subsequently an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicated an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Beginning from this day we confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter in the lower ionosphere. These findings revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which indicated new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere.

Ouzounov, D.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Stress Promotion of the 1958 Mw∼7.8 Fairweather Fault Earthquake and Others in Southeast Alaska by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Inter-earthquake Stress Transfer

We assess how recent glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and inter-earthquake stress transfer modulated the state of stress on major faults in Southeast Alaska, and how these effects may have influenced recent large and moderate earthquakes. The Glacier Bay Icefield has lost >3,000 km3 of ice since ca. 1770, with ice thinning up to 1.5 km, and the rest of southeast Alaska has been deglaciating since ca. 1900. The resulting GIA response in the solid earth produces present-day surface uplift rates of up to ∼4 cm/yr, among the fastest on Earth. This rapid deformation occurs directly alongside and atop the Fairweather Fault, which accommodates 4–5 cm/yr of right-lateral motion through slip in frequent large earthquakes, recently including a Mw∼7.8 earthquake in 1958. We find that the 1958 earthquake nucleated very close to the location of maximum GIA-induced Coulomb stress increase on the Fairweather Fault between 1770 and 1958 (estimated at ∼0.2–0.6 MPa), on the only section of fault where GIA-induced stress changes had involved both right-lateral shearing and unclamping. The September 10, 1899 Mw∼8.1 Yakutat Bay earthquake also promoted failure on at least the northwest part of the eventual 1958 rupture. In turn, the 1899 and 1958 earthquakes and GIA promoted failure along the St. Elias compressional margin, the site of a Mw∼7.4 event in 1979. While rapid tectonic loading is very likely the main driver of earthquakes in southeast Alaska, we estimate that 23 of 30 instrumentally constrained Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in this region were also promoted by post-1770 GIA.

Chris Rollins↗
DOE OSTI2025

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observing of Pre-earthquake Transients Features in Atmosphere-ionosphere Associated with January 2020 Caribbean Earthquakes

Several significant earthquakes occurred in the Caribbean during January 2020. The first earthquake with M = 6.4 occurred on January 7 off the southern coast of Puerto Rico. An earthquake of M7.7occurred in the Caribbean Sea on January 28, 2020, around 19:10 UT on the island of Jamaica. After3 hours (21:55), another M 6.1 earthquake (NEIC / USGS) occurred in the Caribbean. We analyzed, retrospectively, four different atmosphere/ionosphere physical parameters of during the time of these earthquakes namely: (i) the lower atmosphere chemical potential (ACP); (ii) outgoing earth radiation (OLR) at the TOA; (iii) GPS/TEC and; (iv) the very-low-frequency (VLF/LF) signals. We found that at the beginning of January 2020, a rapid increase in satellite measurements of the earth’s atmosphere radiation was recorded, an anomaly appeared over Puerto Rico on January 6 (1 day before the M6.4), and the maxim anomaly appeared eastward from January 20 (eight days before theM7.7). The increases in ACP on January 20-23 were measured near the epicentral area of the M7.7event and coincided with the OLR anomaly. For the VLF analysis, we used the amplitude data of the NAU signal (signal frequency 40.75 kHz), which was received at Chapman University in Orange, California. The length of the signal propagation path from the transmitter to the receiver was about 5300 km. A significant decrease in signal amplitude, exceeding the level of two standard deviations, was observed before the January 7 earthquake (M = 6.4) off the coast of Puerto Rico. A more significant anomaly in the VLF signal was observed before the M7.7 earthquake on January 28. The pre-earthquake nature of the signals in the atmosphere and ionosphere was revealed by simultaneous analysis of satellite, GPS/TEC, and VLF/LF observations. They suggest that they follow a general temporal-spatial evolution pattern, which has been previously observed globally.

D Ouzounov↗
NASA NTRS2012

From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events

Ouzounov, D.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interchangeable Use of GNSS and Seismic Data for Rapid Earthquake Characterization: 2021 Chignik Earthquake, Alaska

Earthquake magnitude estimation using peak ground velocities (PGV) derived from 13 Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data has shown promise for rapid 14 characterization of damaging earthquakes. Here we examine the feasibility of using 15 GNSS-derived velocity waveforms as interchangeable data for ground motion estimation 16 and other products that typically rely on strong-motion seismic records. Our study 17 compares PGVs derived from high-rate GNSS to those computed from high-rate seismic 18 records (strong-motion and velocity), at co- and closely-located stations. The recent 2021 Manuscript Click here to access/download;Manuscript;Manuscript_Final.docx 2 19 Mw 8.2 Chignik earthquake in Alaska that was recorded on co-located GNSS and strong20 motion sensors provides the perfect opportunity to compare the two data streams and 21 their application in rapid response. The Chignik velocity records appear almost identical 22 at co-located GNSS and strong-motion stations when observed at frequencies < 0.25 Hz. 23 GNSS and strong-motion derived velocity data are further employed to generate rapid 24 estimates of PGV-derived moment magnitudes for the earthquake. The moment 25 magnitude estimates from GNSS and joint GNSS/seismic data are within ~ ±0.4 26 magnitude units (Fang et al., 2020) of the final magnitude (Mw 8.2). ShakeMaps 27 generated for the 2021 Chignik earthquake using GNSS and seismic PGVs show notable 28 agreement between them, and show negligible shifts in PGV contours when co-/closely 29 located GNSS and seismic stations are substituted for one another. Therefore, we posit 30 that GNSS is a powerful alternative or addition to seismic data and vice versa.

Earthquake rapid response↗
NASA NTRS2005

Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

Reilinger, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric perturbations, and to distinguish ionospheric responses to processes of EQ preparation against the effects of other factors. The 2-D snapshots of the electron density over Japan showed abnormal increase over the maximum stress during the night, a few hours before the main shock. Our results from recording atmospheric and ionospheric conditions during the earthquake indicate the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionospheres occurring consistently over regions of maximum stress near the epicenter. Due to their long duration (hours and days) and spatial appearance (only over the Sendai region) these results do not appear to be caused by meteorological or magnetic activity. They reveal the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the earthquake, which indicates new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004).

Ouzonounov, D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Objective Image Segmentation: A Case Study of 2010 Haiti Earthquake

In this study, we perform a case study on imagery from the Haiti earthquake that evaluates a novel object-based approach for characterizing earthquake induced surface effects of liquefaction against a traditional pixel based change technique. Our technique, which combines object-oriented change detection with discriminant/categorical functions, shows the power of distinguishing earthquake-induced surface effects from changes in buildings using the object properties concavity, convexity, orthogonality and rectangularity. Our results suggest that object-based analysis holds promise in automatically extracting earthquake-induced damages from high-resolution aerial/satellite imagery.

image segmentation↗
NASA NTRS1988

Relationships of earthquakes (and earthquake-associated mass movements) and polar motion as determined by Kalman filtered, Very-Long-Baseline-Interferometry

A Kalman filter was designed to yield optimal estimates of geophysical parameters from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) group delay data. The geophysical parameters are the polar motion components, adjustments to nutation in obliquity and longitude, and a change in the length of day parameter. The VLBI clock (and clock rate) parameters and atmospheric zenith delay parameters are estimated simultaneously. Filter background is explained. The IRIS (International Radio Interferometric Surveying) VLBI data are Kalman filtered. The resulting polar motion estimates are examined. There are polar motion signatures at the times of three large earthquakes occurring in 1984 to 1986: Mexico, 19 September, 1985 (Magnitude M sub s = 8.1); Chile, 3 March, 1985 (M sub s = 7.8); and Taiwan, 14 November, 1986 (M sub s = 7.8). Breaks in polar motion occurring about 20 days after the earthquakes appear to correlate well with the onset of increased regional seismic activity and a return to more normal seismicity (respectively). While the contribution of these three earthquakes to polar motion excitations is small, the cumulative excitation due to earthquakes, or seismic phenomena over a Chandler wobble damping period may be significant. Mechanisms for polar motion excitation due to solid earth phenomena are examined. Excitation functions are computed, but the data spans are too short to draw conclusions based on these data.

Preisig, Joseph Richard Mark↗
NASA NTRS1995

Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

Bennett, Richard A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗