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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗
NASA NTRS2020

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗
NASA NTRS2021

Extreme Lows of Wheat Production in Brazil

Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.

Brazil↗
NASA NTRS1997

Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM)

In the recent couple of decades, due to international competition, the US launchers lost a considerable amount of market share in the international space launch industry'. Increased international competition has continuously affected the US dominance to eventually place great pressure on future US space launch programs. To compete for future payload and passenger delivery markets, new launch vehicles must first be capable of reliably reaching a number of desired orbital destinations with customer-desired payload capacities. However, the ultimate success of a new launch vehicle program will depend on the launch price it is capable of offering it's customers. Extremely aggressive pricing strategies will be required for a new domestic launch service to compete with low-price international launchers. Low launch prices, then, naturally require a tight budget for the launch program economy. Therefore, budget constraints established by low-pricing requirements eventually place pressure on new launch vehicles to have unprecedentedly low Life Cycle Costs (LCC's).

Lee, Michael Hosung↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

variations↗
NASA NTRS2020

The California Baseline Ozone Transport Study (CABOTS)

Ozone is one of the six “criteria” pollutants identified by the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendment of 1970 as particularly harmful to human health. Concentrations have decreased markedly across the United States over the past 50 years in response to regulatory efforts, but continuing research on its deleterious effects have spurred further reductions in the legal threshold. The South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins of California remain the only two “extreme” ozone nonattainment areas in the United States. Further reductions of ozone in the West are complicated by significant background concentrations whose relative importance increases as domestic anthropogenic contributions decline and the national standards continue to be lowered. These background concentrations derive largely from uncontrollable sources including stratospheric intrusions, wildfires, and intercontinental transport. Taken together the exogenous sources complicate regulatory strategies and necessitate a much more precise understanding of the timing and magnitude of their contributions to regional air pollution. The California Baseline Ozone Transport Study was a field campaign coordinated across Northern and Central California during spring and summer 2016 aimed at observing daily variations in the ozone columns crossing the North American coastline, as well as the modification of the ozone layering downwind across the mountainous topography of California to better understand the impacts of background ozone on surface air quality in complex terrain.

Ian C. Faloona↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing the Evolving Fragility of the Global Food System

The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18-year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85 of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9 (3.8) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11 (5.7) for 20052009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2 (2.2) to 14 (5.2). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.

complex networks↗
NASA NTRS1988

International and domestic mobile satellite regulatory proceedings: A comparison of outcomes and discussion of implications

It is argued that we are on the threshold of a new multibillion dollar industry that can enhance economic development, dramatically improve disaster assessment and relief operations, improve rural health care and solve many safety and security concerns of the transportation industry. Further delays in resolving conflicts between vested interests will be extremely costly to users, providers and equipment manufacturers. Conference participants are urged to move quickly and decisively towards solving outstanding problems.

Freibaum, Jerry↗
NASA NTRS2015

Susceptibility of South Korea to Extremes Affecting the Global Food System

Food security in South Korea is tightly linked to the global food system. The country's production of major grains declined from 5.8 million metric tons (mmt) in 1998 to 4.8 mmt in 2014, which caused the country's grain self suciency to decline from 31.4% to 24%. This decline is a consequence of several factors including reductions in domestic agricultural land, governmental policies supporting industry over agriculture, and a push towards trade liberalization. South Korea's self suciency is now one of the lowest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, leaving it vulnerable to disruptions in the global food system.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2019

Extreme-Temperature Carbon- and Ceramic-Matrix Composite Nozzle Extensions for Liquid Rocket Engines

The United States (US) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and its US industry partners are developing extreme-temperature composite nozzle extensions for a variety of cryogenic liquid rocket engine propulsion systems. Applications under consideration at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) include launch vehicle (upper stage), in-space, and lunar lander descent/ascent propulsion systems. Composite material systems of interest include carbon-carbon (C-C) and carbon/silicon-carbide (C-SiC) composites, as well as modified versions of such composites (coatings, mixed matrices, oxidation inhibitors, etc.). Missions addressed include access to low Earth orbit, the lunar surface, and more distant destinations. Cryogenic upper-stage and in-space liquid rocket engines are optimized for performance through the use of high area ratio nozzles to fully expand combustion gases to low exit pressures, increasing exhaust velocities. As a result of the large size of such nozzles, and the related engine performance requirements, composite nozzle extensions are being considered to reduce mass impacts. Currently, metallic and foreign composite nozzle extensions used on the Atlas V, Delta IV, Falcon 9, and Ariane 5 launch vehicles represent the state-of-the-art. Such extensions are limited to use at or slightly above 2000°F (1093°C). Materials under development by MSFC and its industry partners have the potential to operate at temperatures up to (or above) 4250°F (2343°C). Marshall Space Flight Center efforts are aimed at (a) further developing the technology and databases needed to enable the use of composite nozzle extensions on cryogenic liquid rocket engines, (b) developing and demonstrating low-cost capabilities for testing and qualifying such nozzle extensions, and (c) advancing the US domestic supply chain for nozzle extensions. Through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) Programs, low-level internal MSFC research projects, and teaming arrangements with domestic industry partners, composite material design, development, hot-fire test, and evaluation efforts are progressing. Hot- fire engine tests of subscale hardware have been conducted using oxygen/hydrogen (LOX/H2), oxygen/methane (LOX/CH4), and oxygen/kerosene (LOX/RP-1) propellants. These engine tests at MSFC have enabled the evaluation of both heritage and state-of-the-art material systems, demonstrating the initial capabilities of the extreme temperature materials and their fabrication methods. Recent, ongoing, and potential future work supporting cryogenic propulsion systems development will be presented. The composite nozzle extension technology and test capabilities being developed are intended to support both NASA and US Department of Defense requirements, as well as those of the broader Commercial Space industry.

Valentine, Peter G.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Biomorphic architectures for autonomous Nanosat designs

Modern space tool design is the science of making a machine both massively complex while at the same time extremely robust and dependable. We propose a novel nonlinear control technique that produces capable, self-organizing, micron-scale space machines at low cost and in large numbers by parallel silicon assembly. Experiments using biomorphic architectures (with ideal space attributes) have produced a wide spectrum of survival-oriented machines that are reliably domesticated for work applications in specific environments. In particular, several one-chip satellite prototypes show interesting control properties that can be turned into numerous application-specific machines for autonomous, disposable space tasks. We believe that the real power of these architectures lies in their potential to self-assemble into larger, robust, loosely coupled structures. Assembly takes place at hierarchical space scales, with different attendant properties, allowing for inexpensive solutions to many daunting work tasks. The nature of biomorphic control, design, engineering options, and applications are discussed.

Hasslacher, Brosl↗
NASA NTRS1971

Summary and recommendations for the NASA/MIT workshop on short haul air transport

The material is summarized that was covered by the MIT/NASA Waterville Valley workshop which dealt with the institutional, socio-economic, operational and technological problems associated with introducing new forms of short haul domestic air transportation. It was found that future air systems hold great potential in satisfying society's needs for a low noise, low landspace, high access, high speed, large network system for public travel over distances between 5 and 500 miles. It is concluded that quiet air systems are necessary for obtaining community approval, and is recommended that extremely high priority be assigned to the development of quiet aircraft for future short haul air systems.

Simpson, R. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Robust and Mass Efficient Thermal Protection Systems for Future Venus Missions

Several international Venus missions, both orbiter, and in-situ probe are in the works after a prolonged absence. Future missions are expected to be long-duration lander missions and balloon missions to investigate the cloud layer. The entry mass for these in-situ missions will be significantly higher, and the aeroshell will be larger, than previous missions. Two cardinal requirements govern the selection and use of thermal protection systems (TPS), namely, robustness to assure mission safety during entry and mass efficiency so that the useful mass for science is maximized. One cannot trade mission safety for mass when it comes to TPS. The robustness of the TPS is a paramount requirement as it is a single point of system failure. At the same time, TPS mass is carried for the entire mission duration prior to entry, and any excess TPS mass is at the cost of science payload. Future missions will benefit enormously from TPS options with mass and performance benefits far beyond advanced carbon-carbon (ACC) that is currently proposed for the DAVINCI mission. NASA STMD, and SMD jointly invested in the development of 3-D woven thermal protection systems in the last decade, and as a result, the Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) TPS has been matured to TRL 6. It is ready for future mission use including Venus. The HEEET project focused on developing a broad technology base, applicable for missions not only to Venus, but also to Saturn, the Ice Giants, and higher speed sample return missions such as Mars Sample Return requiring extreme robustness due to bio-hazards. The dual-layer HEEET (DL-HEEET) is proven to be extremely robust. DL-HEEET performed well in arc jet and laser testing conditions where heritage carbon-phenolic failed. HEEET also proved to be more mass efficient compared to Carbon-Phenolic. Recently, the principal author was invited to present his perspectives to the 2023-2032 Planetary Sciences Decadal Venus subcommittee on the current state of TPS for future Venus missions [1]. In addition to pointing out successful TPS and other developments in the last decade in support of entry systems, the principal author made two findings: 1) importance of and need to sustain TPS capabilities that took nearly a decade to develop and 2) the opportunity to further optimize TPS mass without sacrificing robustness to further enable future in-situ missions. This talk will focus on the above two recommendations and provide the rationale for them. The intent of the talk is to seek advocacy from the VEXAG community for the criticality of TPS sustainment and the benefits of 3D woven TPS optimization. TPS Capability Sustainment: HEEET development was necessitated by the atrophy of heritage carbon-phenolic. Atrophy has impacted other TPS materials as well. Avcoat, the TPS that successfully allowed astronauts to explore the Moon in the 1960s and 70s, took nearly a decade and $10’sM to recover in support of Orion/Artemis. One of the most used TPS materials, SLA 561V, had to be recovered prior to its use on Mars Pathfinder. Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA), the TPS that replaced SLA 561V on MSL, has undergone multiple replacements and recovery due to constituent rayon changes. Recently, NASA invested in a domestic rayon replacement program and also invested in FMI to consolidate PICA capability for NASA missions, as a result of FMI’s decision to discontinue commercial FiberForm, which is needed for PICA. TPS used for planetary missions are unique and have no other commercial or defense use. In addition, low mission cadence is also a driver for TPS atrophy. Hence, NASA, as the steward, must take steps to ensure and sustain TPS capabilities. In this talk, we outline steps NASA can take to keep abreast of emerging risks and target risk mitigation steps to ensure TPS capability sustainment for Venus and other extreme environment missions. Next Generation of Mass efficient and Robust TPS: NASA invested in an alternate TPS to PICA based on felt-technology called Conformal-PICA which has the potential to save 30% - 50% mass over PICA. The development was discontinued at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of ~ 5. 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) is a single layer variant of HEEET, based on the insulating layer only (SL-HEEET) and currently baselined for the Mars Sample Return Mission Earth Entry System due to its mass efficiency (30% more mass efficient than DL- HEEET). Currently, SL-HEEET is limited to aeroshell diameters of < 1.3m. The SL-HEEET was compared to DL-HEEET in the recent ADVENT flag-ship class mission study in support of the Planetary Science Decadal. SL HEEET was the recommended TPS based on 30% mass savings for both the balloon and lander missions. Given C-PICA and SL-HEEET have superior reliability and mass efficiency, advocacy from VEXAG is sought for completing their further development to TRL 5/6 in this decade so as to enable TPS readiness for future missions.

Thermal Protection Systems↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Water Resources Program

With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. In addition to the numerous water availability issues, water quality related problems are seriously affecting human health and our environment. The potential crises and conflicts especially arise when water is competed among multiple uses. For example, urban areas, environmental and recreational uses, agriculture, and energy production compete for scarce resources, not only in the Western U.S. but throughout much of the U.S. and also in numerous parts of the world. Mitigating these conflicts and meeting water demands and needs requires using existing water resources more efficiently. The NASA Water Resources Program Element works to use NASA products and technology to address these critical water issues. The primary goal of the Water Resources is to facilitate application of NASA Earth science products as a routine use in integrated water resources management for the sustainable use of water. This also includes the extreme events of drought and floods and the adaptation to the impacts from climate change. NASA satellite and Earth system observations of water and related data provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as precipitation, snow, soil moisture, water levels, land cover type, vegetation type, and health. NASA Water Resources Program works closely to use NASA and Earth science data with other U.S. government agencies, universities, and non-profit and private sector organizations both domestically and internationally. The NASA Water Resources Program organizes its projects under five functional themes. I) Streamflow and Flood Forecasting 2) Water Supply and Irrigation (includes evapotranspiration) 3) Drought 4) Water Quality 5) Climate and Water Resources. To maximize this activity NASA Water Resources Program works closely with other government agencies (e.g., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA); the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), USAID, the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)), universities, non-profit national and international organizations, and the private sector. The NASA Water Resources program currently is funding 21 active projects under the functional themes (http://wmp.gsfc.nasa.gov & http://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/applied-sciences/).

Toll, David L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s LSII: Ensuring Cohesive, Executable Strategy for Technology Development

In 2019, NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) established the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (LSII) which has evolved into a key agency asset aimed at spurring technology development and providing risk reduction for lunar surface system and infrastructure development. In the five years since its inception, LSII’s work has serviced the needs of technology stakeholders from U.S. industry, academia, government agencies, non-profit institutions, and has expanded to include participation from international organizations. Continued domestic and foreign engagement has gained rapid momentum through LSII’s Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC), an innovative approach that encourages public-private partnerships and collaboration across sectors to support NASA’s existing technology investments and prepare for increasingly complex lunar surface technology demonstrations.

Lunar↗
NASA NTRS1997

Mutagenic effects of a single and an exact number of alpha particles in mammalian cells

One of the main uncertainties in risk estimation for environmental radon exposure using lung cancer data from underground miners is the extrapolation from high- to low-dose exposure where multiple traversal is extremely rare. The biological effects of a single alpha particle are currently unknown. Using the recently available microbeam source at the Radiological Research Accelerator Facility at Columbia University, we examined the frequencies and molecular spectrum of S1- mutants induced in human-hamster hybrid (A(L)) cells by either a single or an exact number of alpha particles. Exponentially growing cells were stained briefly with a nontoxic concentration of Hoechst dye for image analysis, and the location of individual cells was computer-monitored. The nucleus of each cell was irradiated with either 1,2,4, or 8 alpha particles at a linear energy transfer of 90 keV/microm consistent with the energy spectrum of domestic radon exposure. Although single-particle traversal was only slightly cytotoxic to A(L) cells (survival fraction approximately 0.82), it was highly mutagenic, and the induced mutant fraction averaged 110 mutants per 10(5) survivors. In addition, both toxicity and mutant induction were dose-dependent. Multiplex PCR analysis of mutant DNA showed that the proportion of mutants with multilocus deletions increased with the number of particle traversals. These data provide direct evidence that a single a particle traversing a nucleus will have a high probability of resulting in a mutation and highlight the need for radiation protection at low doses.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2003

Carbon-Based Wear Coatings: Properties and Applications

The technical function of numerous engineering systems - such as vehicles, machines, and instruments - depends on the processes of motion and on the surface systems. Many processes in nature and technology depend on the motion and dynamic behavior of solids, liquids, and gases. Smart surface systems are essential because of the recent technological push toward higher speeds, loads, and operating temperatures; longer life; lighter weight and smaller size (including nanotechnology); and harsh environments in mechanical, mechatronic, and biomechanical systems. If proper attention is not given to surface systems, then vehicles, machines, instruments, and other technical systems could have short lives, consume excessive energy, experience breakdowns, result in liabilities, and fail to accomplish their missions. Surface systems strongly affect our national economy and our lifestyles. At the NASA Glenn Research Center, we believe that proper attention to surface systems, especially in education, research, and application, could lead to economic savings of between 1.3 and 1.6 percent of the gross domestic product. Wear coatings and surface systems continue to experience rapid growth as new coating and surface engineering technologies are discovered, more cost-effective coating and surface engineering solutions are developed, and marketers aggressively pursue, uncover, and exploit new applications for engineered surface systems in cutting tools and wear components. Wear coatings and smart surface systems have been used widely in industrial, consumer, automotive, aerospace, and biomedical applications. This presentation expresses the author's views of and insights into smart surface systems in wear coatings. A revolution is taking place in carbon science and technology. Diamond, an allotrope of carbon, joins graphite, fullerenes, and nanotubes as its major pure carbon structures. It has a unique combination of extreme properties: hardness and abrasion resistance; adhesion and friction; thermal conductivity; chemical and thermal inertness; corrosion and wear resistance; radiation resistance and biocompatibility; electronic, acoustic, and electrochemical characteristics; and environmental compatibility. These properties make diamond attractive for a wide range of diverse applications. In particular, chemical-vapor-deposited (CVD) diamond coatings offer a broad potential, since size and cost are not as limiting. The production of large, superhard diamond films or sheets at low cost make designer materials possible. This presentation is divided into two sections: properties and applications of hard coatings. The first section is concerned with the fundamental properties of the surfaces of CVD diamonds and related materials. The surface properties of hard coatings with favorable coefficients of friction (less than or equal to 0.1) and dimensional wear coefficients (less than or equal to 10(exp -6) cubic millimeters/N.m) in specific environments are discussed. The second section is devoted to applications. Examples of actual, successful applications and of potential challenging applications of the coatings.such as CVD diamond, diamondlike carbon, and cubic boron nitride-are described. Cutting tools coated with CVD diamond are of immediate commercial interest. Other applications, such as microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), valves, and bearings of CVD diamond, are being developed, but at a slow pace. There is a continually growing interest in commercializing diamondlike carbon for wear parts applications, such as biomedical parts and implants, forming dies, transport guides, magnetic tapes and disks, valves, and gears. Cubic boron nitride films are receiving attention because they can be used on tools to machine ferrous materials or on wear parts in sliding contact with ferrous materials.

Miyoshi, Kazuhisa↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗