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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian analysis for estimating statistical parameter distributions of elasto-viscoplastic material models

High temperature design methods rely on constitutive models for inelastic deformation and failure typically calibrated against the mean of experimental data without considering the associated scatter. Variability may arise from the experimental data acquisition process, from heat-to-heat material property variations, or both and need to be accurately captured to predict parameter bounds leading to efficient component design. Applying the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to produce statistical models capturing the underlying uncertainty in the experimental data is an area of ongoing research interest. This work varies aspects of the Bayesian MCMC method and explores their effect on the posterior parameter distributions for a uniaxial elasto-viscoplastic damage model using synthetically generated reference data. From our analysis with the uniaxial inelastic model we determine that an informed prior distribution including different types of test conditions results in more accurate posterior parameter distributions. The parameter posterior distributions, however, do not improve when increasing the number of similar experimental data. Additionally, changing the amount of scatter in the data affects the quality of the posterior distributions, especially for the less sensitive model parameters. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity study of the model parameters against the likelihood function prior to the Bayesian analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis help to determine the reliability of the posterior distributions and reduce the dimensionality of the problem by fixing the insensitive parameters. The comprehensive study described in this work demonstrates how to efficiently apply the Bayesian MCMC methodology to capture parameter uncertainties in high temperature inelastic material models. Quantifying these uncertainties in inelastic models will improve high temperature engineering design practices and lead to safer, more effective component designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equation-Free Coarse Control of Distributed Parameter Systems via Local Neural Operators

The control of high-dimensional distributed parameter systems (DPS) remains a challenge when explicit coarse-grained equations are unavailable. Classical equation-free (EF) approaches rely on fine-scale simulators treated as black-box timesteppers. However, repeated simulations for steady-state computation, linearization, and control design are often computationally prohibitive, or the microscopic timestepper may not even be available, leaving us with data as the only resource. We propose a data-driven alternative that uses local neural operators, trained on spatiotemporal microscopic/mesoscopic data, to obtain efficient short-time solution operators. These surrogates are employed within Krylov subspace methods to compute coarse steady and unsteady-states, while also providing Jacobian information in a matrix-free manner. Krylov-Arnoldi iterations then approximate the dominant eigenspectrum, yielding reduced models that capture the open-loop slow dynamics without explicit Jacobian assembly. Both discrete-time Linear Quadratic Regulator (dLQR) and pole-placement (PP) controllers are based on this reduced system and lifted back to the full nonlinear dynamics, thereby closing the feedback loop.

93B52, 93C20, 47N70, 65J15, 65M32, 68T07, 68T20, 6↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-parameter distributed fiber optic sensing using double-Brillouin peak fiber in Brillouin optical time domain analysis

In this paper, we demonstrate a multi-parameter fiber sensing system based on stimulated Brillouin scattering in a double-Brillouin peak specialty fiber with enhanced Brillouin gain response. The amplitude level of the second Brillouin gain peak, which originated from the higher-order acoustic modes, has been improved with an approximately similar amplitude level to the first Brillouin gain peak from the fundamental acoustic mode. Compared to other multi-Brillouin peak fibers presented in the literature, the proposed fiber significantly reduces the measured Brillouin frequency shift error, thus improving strain and temperature accuracies. By utilizing the sensitivity values of the strain and temperature associated with each Brillouin gain spectrum (BGS) peak, a successful discriminative measurement of strain and temperature is performed with an accuracy of ±13 μɛ, and ±0.5 °C, respectively. The proposed double-Brillouin peak fiber appears to be a possible alternative to other multi-BGS peak fibers, for instance, large effective area fiber and dispersion compensating fibers, which are inherently accompanied by large measurement errors due to the weak Brillouin gain values originating from the higher-order acoustic modes. The demonstrated results show different strain and temperature coefficients of 47 kHz/µɛ, 1.15 MHz/°C for peak 1 and 51 kHz/µɛ, 1.37 MHz/°C for peak 2. Moreover, the enhanced BGS peak gains having nearly the same amplitude levels enable the discriminative measurement of strain and temperature. Such fibers in Brillouin interrogation eliminate the need for complex monitoring setups and reduce measurement errors. We recommend that for long-distance natural gas pipeline monitoring, where discriminative strain and temperature measurement is crucial, the proposed double-Brillouin peak fiber can be highly beneficial.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multimodal spectroscopy of order parameter distributions

We present a multimodal spectroscopic paradigm that enables independent measurement of charge and spin degrees of freedom (DOF) in strongly correlated materials. This spin-based technique probes symmetry-specific Hamiltonian parameters by analyzing how the time delay between applied pulses (τ) affects the response. We demonstrate ways in which charge DOF that couple through the quadrupolar interaction (inversion symmetric) can be independently measured even in the presence of large magnetic noise (inversion asymmetric). The method quantifies both the strength of the interactions and their distribution (noise). We provide protocols to directly and independently measure the distribution of interaction strengths, even when the average value of the interaction is zero. By independently measuring distributions of different forms of disorder, this methodology can elucidate which microscopic symmetry drives a phase transition. Here, we discuss potential applications to study complex phase transitions in strongly interacting quantum materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Methods and devices for preventing computationally explosive calculations in a computer for model parameters distributed on a hierarchy of geometric simplices

A computer-implemented method of preventing computationally explosive calculations. The method includes obtaining, by a processor of the computer, measured data of one of a physical process or a physical object; performing hierarchical numerical modeling of a physical process inclusive of an Earth model containing at least one of (a) infrastructure in the ground and (b) a formation feature in the ground, wherein predicted data is generated; comparing the measured data to the predicted data to calculate an estimated error; analyzing the estimated error via an inversion process to update the at least one of the Earth model and infrastructure model so as to reduce the estimated error and to determine a final composite Earth model of at least one of the infrastructure and the feature; and using the final composite Earth model to characterize at least one of the process and the physical object.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimized asynchronous training of neural networks using a distributed parameter server with eager updates

A method of training a neural network includes, at a local computing node, receiving remote parameters from a set of one or more remote computing nodes, initiating execution of a forward pass in a local neural network in the local computing node to determine a final output based on the remote parameters, initiating execution of a backward pass in the local neural network to determine updated parameters for the local neural network, and prior to completion of the backward pass, transmitting a subset of the updated parameters to the set of remote computing nodes.

Hamidouche, Khaled↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dramatic relativistic effects on the ns dipole angular distribution asymmetry parameter, β ns , of heavy and superheavy elements

A theoretical study of the dipole photoelectron angular distribution asymmetry parameter, β, of the 6s, 5s and 4s subshells has been conducted for a range of closed-shell heavy, Hg (Z = 80), Rn (Z = 86), Ra (Z = 88) and superheavy, No (Z = 102), Cn (Z = 112), Og (Z = 118), Ubn (Z = 120) elements to understand the deviation of β from the nonrelativistic value of 2 owing to relativistic effects. It was found that the deviation, strongest in Cooper minimum regions, persists over all energy for all ns subshells, and the deviations increase with Z. Furthermore, three levels of relativistic calculations were performed in order to pinpoint the particular interactions responsible for the details of the behavior of the ns β's as functions of energy, n, and Z and, in addition to the effects of the (relativistic) spin–orbit interaction, interchannel coupling was found to be of crucial importance in the determination of the β parameter in most of the situations studied.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proxy-based Bayesian inversion of strain tensor data measured during well tests

Recent instrument developments have made it possible to measure the strain tensor caused by injecting or pumping fluid from aquifers or reservoirs, but the full value of these data is limited because the long runtimes of poroelastic forward models makes it impractical to use many inversion schemes. This limits the interpretation of strain data for managing the recovery of resources or storage of wastes in the subsurface. This paper describes a method of inverting deformation data using a poroelastic numerical simulator so the results can be used to manage reservoirs or aquifers. We developed a workflow designed to reduce the number of simulations sufficiently to make it feasible to use DREAMzs, an advanced Bayesian inversion method that translates the uncertainties from different sources into unbiased posterior parameter distributions and uncertainty envelopes around the field data. Using a KNN proxy model for the poroelastic simulator is key to reducing the overall computations, and the workflow includes a strategy for ensuring the proxy model results converge on the results from the simulator. The workflow is tested using an idealized example that verifies the ability to correctly identify parameters and characterize noise used to perturb the data. Field data from an injection test at an oil reservoir near Tulsa, Oklahoma, are also used to evaluate the efficacy of the workflow with a real dataset. The workflow identified 265 history matching solutions out of 1240 total simulation runs (21% acceptance ratio), where the results were used to characterize posterior parameter distribution and evaluate the prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, this workflow is significant because it enables strain tensor, or other geomechanical measurements to be interpreted to guide decision-making during energy and environmental processes in the subsurface.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Simulations of Taylor Bubbles in Vertical and Inclined Pipes with Upward and Downward Liquid Flow

Summary Two-phase flow is a common occurrence in pipes of oil and gas developments. Current predictive tools are based on the mechanistic two-fluid model, which requires the use of closure relations to predict integral flow parameters such as liquid holdup (or void fraction) and pressure gradient. However, these closure relations carry the highest uncertainties in the model. In particular, significant discrepancies have been found between experimental data and closure relations for the Taylor bubble velocity in slug flow, which has been determined to strongly affect the mechanistic model predictions (Lizarraga-García 2016). In this work, we study the behavior of Taylor bubbles in vertical and inclined pipes with upward and downward flow using a validated 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach with level set method implemented in a commercial code. A total of 56 cases are simulated, covering a wide range of fluid properties, pipe diameters, and inclination angles: Eo ∈ [10, 700]; Mo ∈ [1×10–6, 5×103]; ReSL ∈ [–40, 10]; θ ∈ [5°, 90°]. For bubbles in vertical upward flows, the simulated distribution parameter, C0, is successfully compared with an existing model. However, the C0 values of downward and inclined slug flows where the bubble becomes asymmetric are shown to be significantly different from their respective vertical upward flow values, and no current model exists for the fluids simulated here. The main contributions of this work are (1) the relatively large 3D numerical database generated for this type of flow, (2) the study of the asymmetric nature of inclined and some vertical downward slug flows, and (3) the analysis of its impact on the distribution parameter, C0.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Drivers of Methane Hydrobiogeochemistry in a Tidal River Floodplain System

The influence of coastal ecosystems on global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets and their response to increasing inundation and salinization remains poorly constrained. In this study, we have integrated an uncertainty quantification (UQ) and ensemble machine learning (ML) framework to identify and rank the most influential processes, properties, and conditions controlling methane behavior in a freshwater floodplain responding to recently restored seawater inundation. Our unique multivariate, multiyear, and multi-site dataset comprises tidal creek and floodplain porewater observations encompassing water level, salinity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ), nitrous oxide (pN 2 O), methane (pCH 4 ), and the stable isotopic composition of methane (δ 13 CH 4 ). Additionally, we incorporated topographical data, soil porosity, hydraulic conductivity, and water retention parameters for UQ analysis using a previously developed 3D variably saturated flow and transport floodplain model for a physical mechanistic understanding of factors influencing groundwater levels and salinity and, therefore, CH 4 . Principal component analysis revealed that groundwater level and salinity are the most significant predictors of overall biogeochemical variability. The ensemble ML models and UQ analyses identified DO, water level, salinity, and temperature as the most influential factors for porewater methane levels and indicated that approximately 80% of the total variability in hourly water levels and around 60% of the total variability in hourly salinity can be explained by permeability, creek water level, and two van Genuchten water retention function parameters: the air-entry suction parameter α and the pore size distribution parameter m. These findings provide insights on the physicochemical factors in methane behavior in coastal ecosystems and their representation in local- to global-scale Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quadrupole Effects in the Photoionisation of Sodium 3s in the Vicinity of the Dipole Cooper Minimum

A procedure to obtain relativistic expressions for photoionisation angular distribution parameters using the helicity formulation is discussed for open-shell atoms. Electric dipole and quadrupole transition matrix elements were considered in the present work, to study the photoionisation dynamics of the 3s electron of the sodium atom in the vicinity of the dipole Cooper minimum. We studied dipole–quadrupole interference effects on the photoelectron angular distribution in the region of the dipole Cooper minimum. Interference with quadrupole transitions was found to alter the photoelectron angular distribution, even at rather low photon energies. The initial ground and final ionised state discrete wavefunctions of the atom were obtained in the present work using GRASP, and we employed RATIP with discrete wavefunctions, to construct continuum wavefunctions and to calculate transition amplitudes, total cross-sections and angular distribution asymmetry parameters.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian Approach to the Eagar–Tsai Model for Melt Pool Geometry Prediction with Implications in Additive Manufacturing of Metals

Here, this paper focuses on improving the melt pool geometry predictions and quantifying uncertainties using an adapted version of the Eagar–Tsai (E–T) model that incorporates temperature-dependent properties of the material as well as powder conditions. Additionally, Bayesian inference is employed to predict distributions for the E–T model input parameters of laser absorptivity and powder bed porosity by incorporating experimental results into the analysis. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is then used with these parameter distributions to estimate the melt pool depth and associated uncertainty. Our results for the 316L stainless steel suggest that both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity are strongly influenced by the laser power. In contrast, the scanning speed has only a marginal effect on both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity. We constructed a printability map using the Bayesian E–T model based on power-dependent input parameter values to demonstrate the merit of the approach. The Bayesian approach improved the accuracy in predicting the keyhole regions in the laser power-scan speed parameter space for the 316L stainless steel. Although applied to a specific adaptation of the E–T model, the method put forth can be extended to quantify uncertainties in other numerical models as well as in the estimation of unknown parameters.

316L Stainless Steel (SS).↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Sequential Design of Experiments (SDoE) to Large Pilot-Scale Solvent-Based CO2 Capture Process at Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM)

The United States Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2) program has developed a framework for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) that aims to maximize knowledge gained from budget- and schedule-limited pilot scale testing. SDoE was applied to the planning and execution of campaigns for testing CO2 capture systems at pilot-scale in order to optimally allocate resources available for the testing. In this methodology, a stochastic process model is developed by quantifying the parametric uncertainty in submodels of interest; for a solvent-based CO2 capture system, these may include physical properties and equipment performance submodels (e.g., mass transfer, interfacial area). This uncertainty is propagated through the full process model, over variable operating conditions, for estimating the resulting uncertainty in key model outputs (e.g., percentage of CO2 capture, solvent regeneration energy requirement). In developing a data collection plan, the predicted output uncertainty is incorporated into an algorithm that seeks simultaneously to select process operating conditions for which the predicted uncertainty is relatively high and to ensure that the entire space of operation is well represented. This test plan is then used to guide operation of the pilot plant at varying steady-state conditions, with resulting process data incorporated into the existing model using Bayesian inference to refine parameter distributions. The updated stochastic model, with reduced parametric uncertainty from data collected, is then used to guide additional data collection, thus the sequential nature of the experimental design. The SDoE process was implemented at the pilot test unit (12 MWe in scale) at Norway’s Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in a summer 2018 test campaign with aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA). During the test campaign, the varied operating conditions included the flowrates of circulated solvent, flue gas, and reboiler steam and the CO2 concentration in the flue gas. The process data were used to update probability distributions of mass transfer and interfacial area parameters of a stochastic process model developed by the CCSI2 team. Two iterations of the SDoE process were executed, resulting in the uncertainty in model predicted CO2 capture percentage decreasing by an average of 58.0 ± 4.7% over the full input space of interest. This work demonstrates the potential of the SDoE process for model refinement through reduction in process model parametric uncertainty, and ultimately risk in scale-up, in CO2 capture technology performance.

carbon capture↗