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DIMPLES: Distributed Influence Maximization for Pandemic pLanning on Exascale Systems

We study exascale parallel algorithms for the selection of intervention or monitoring strategies in massive realistic socio-technical networks through scalable Influence Maximization (InfMax) algorithms. We employ novel techniques to enable efficient scaling on up to 8k nodes of OLCF Frontier, with 65k AMD GPUs and 458k AMD CPU cores. Current state-of-the-art InfMax tools are limited to networks with only a few million actors (vertices) and a few hundred million interactions (edges). By overcoming these limitations, we show that our approach is capable of processing a realistic social contact network of the United States with 285 million nodes and about 8 billion edges. This two orders-of-magnitude improvement over the previous state-of-the-art is obtained by leveraging algorithmic advancements for the InfMax problem and designing several problem-specific approaches to overlap communication with computation, improve GPU efficiency, and lower the application’s memory requirements. We evaluate strong scaling for computing 10k most influential seeds using up to 8k nodes of an exascale system, and weak scaling from 128 to 8k system nodes for seed sets ranging from 625 to 40k seeds. We achieve the fastest-known runtime of 25 minutes while performing 48 million diffusion simulations totaling 2.31 petabytes to identify 40k influential seeds using 8k nodes, and take 5.75 minutes to identify 10k seeds while using 4k nodes.

Minutoli, Marco [Pacific Northwest National Labora

Shape Optimization of Header Pipes in Power Plants for Enhanced Efficiency and Environmental Sustainability

In a power plant, the header pipe plays a pivotal role in optimizing the performance of diverse systems by serving as a central conduit for the collection and distribution of steam within the plant. This paper investigates the significance of header pipes within power plant setups, highlighting their critical influence on reliability, efficiency, and the performance of the power plant as a whole. The concept of shape optimization emerges as a crucial factor in power plant design and operation, with the potential to maximize performance while minimizing the use of materials. Shape optimization not only enhances efficiency but also contributes to reducing the environmental footprint of power plant installations. In this paper, we initially developed a methodology designed for optimizing header shapes with the primary goal of reducing the usage of costly new alloy materials and lowering the overall maintenance operation expenses. Secondly, we conducted a case study based on an authentic header sourced from an operational power plant.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS

Dynamically Learning Incentives for Load Control

As electrical generation becomes more distributed and volatile, and loads become more uncertain, controllability of distributed energy resources (DERs), regardless of their ownership status, will be necessary for grid reliability. Grid operators lack direct control over end-users' grid interactions, such as energy usage, but incentives can influence behavior -- for example, an end-user that receives a grid-driven incentive may adjust their consumption or expose relevant control variables in response. A key challenge in studying such incentives is the lack of data about human behavior, which usually motivates strong assumptions, such as distributional assumptions on compliance or rational utility-maximization. In this paper, we propose a general incentive mechanism in the form of a constrained optimization problem -- our approach is distinguished from prior work by modeling human behavior (e.g., reactions to an incentive) as an arbitrary unknown function. We propose feedback-based optimization algorithms to solve this problem that each leverage different amounts of information and/or measurements. We show that each converges to an asymptotically stable incentive with (near)-optimality guarantees given mild assumptions on the problem. Finally, we evaluate our proposed techniques in voltage regulation simulations on standard test beds. We test a variety of settings, including those that break assumptions required for theoretical convergence (e.g., convexity, smoothness) to capture realistic settings. In this evaluation, our proposed algorithms are able to find near-optimal incentives even when the reaction to an incentive is modeled by a theoretically difficult (yet realistic) function.

demand response

Innovative control mechanism for research and test reactors using mandrel-shaped control rods

Research and test reactors have historically played a pivotal role in supporting the initial development of nuclear reactors. They continue to provide essential data for enhancing fuel designs and material knowledge. However, with many such reactors aging and the growing demand for data to bolster advanced reactor development, it is more necessary to research potential design attributes of the next generation of research and test reactors. For test reactors dedicated to fuel and material testing, the design of control mechanisms significantly influences the stabilization of neutron flux levels in irradiation positions while sustaining criticality. This study presents an innovative control mechanism for potential research and test reactor designs. It employs small absorber rods that move in opposite axial directions to maintain axial symmetry of power and neutron flux during burnup cycles. These rods maximize reactivity worth while also offering flexibility to flatten the radial power distribution. An axial translation of the control mechanisms’ absorbers, as compared to the rotational movement of absorbers in control cylinders, also provides a benefit to available excess reactivity and cycle length. Additionally, this work utilizes a simplified core model of the Advanced Test Reactor to assess the performance of this control mechanism. Compared to the current control system based on rotating control cylinders, the new control mechanism has the potential to enhance, or at least maintain, neutronic performance parameters in this reactor design.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Quantifying concentration distributions in redox flow batteries with neutron radiography

Abstract The continued advancement of electrochemical technologies requires an increasingly detailed understanding of the microscopic processes that control their performance, inspiring the development of new multi-modal diagnostic techniques. Here, we introduce a neutron imaging approach to enable the quantification of spatial and temporal variations in species concentrations within an operating redox flow cell. Specifically, we leverage the high attenuation of redox-active organic materials (high hydrogen content) and supporting electrolytes (boron-containing) in solution and perform subtractive neutron imaging of active species and supporting electrolyte. To resolve the concentration profiles across the electrodes, we employ an in-plane imaging configuration and correlate the concentration profiles to cell performance with polarization experiments under different operating conditions. Finally, we use time-of-flight neutron imaging to deconvolute concentrations of active species and supporting electrolyte during operation. Using this approach, we evaluate the influence of cell polarity, voltage bias and flow rate on the concentration distribution within the flow cell and correlate these with the macroscopic performance, thus obtaining an unprecedented level of insight into reactive mass transport. Ultimately, this diagnostic technique can be applied to a range of (electro)chemical technologies and may accelerate the development of new materials and reactor designs.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Advancing the understanding of coastal disturbances with a network-of-networks approach

Coastal ecosystems are at the nexus of many high priority challenges in environmental sciences, including predicting the influences of compounding disturbances exacerbated by climate change on biogeochemical cycling. Extreme events such as hurricanes, flooding, landslides, and wildfires influence biogeochemical cycling in these systems. However, while research in coastal science is fundamentally transdisciplinary – as drivers of biogeochemical and ecological processes often span scientific and environmental domains – traditional place-based approaches are still often employed to understand coastal ecosystems. In this perspective, we argue that integration among distributed research sites from a macrosystem perspective is crucial to understand how compounding disturbances affect coastal ecosystems. We identify a roadmap for the implementation of an integrated network-of-networks framework that leverages existing research network sites in coastal ecosystems to advance continental-scale process understanding for studying extreme events and global change. We also identify specific ways that existing research efforts can maximize mutual benefit, and where additional infrastructure investments might increase return-on-investment along the coast, using the coastal continental US as a case study.

Myers-Pigg, Allison N. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]

Characterization of carbonaceous aerosols during TRACER-CAT

Absorbing aerosols (AA) have an important impact on the global radiation budget and cloud properties. The composition and properties of AA can vary substantially throughout the atmosphere, depending on the particle source and the influence of chemical aging. Uncertainties associated with the radiative effects of AA remain substantial. A key contributor to this uncertainty is understanding the extent to which coatings in general, and water uptake especially, alters absorption by AA particles and how this depends on particle composition. We deployed new and existing experimental tools during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign in Houston, TX as part of the Carbonaceous Aerosols Thrust (CAT) to provide detailed characterization of aerosol optical, chemical, and physical properties. Our TRACER-CAT measurements complemented and expanded on the planned TRACER instrumentation, allowing for more detailed characterization of aerosol properties of relevance to cloud development (a core focus of TRACER), such as the composition of particles that can act as cloud condensation nuclei, than would otherwise be available. Our measurements have allowed for assessment of the relationship(s) between AA optical properties (with a focus on absorption) and the chemical and physical characteristics (including the mixing state of black carbon (BC) containing particles). These field observations occurred in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory in summer 2022 during the TRACER intensive operating period. The instrumentation we co-deployed provided for measurement of (i) multi-wavelength dry aerosol absorption, scattering, and extinction, (ii) the size-dependent composition and abundance of sub-micron aerosol, differentiating between those particles that do and do not contain BC, (iii) BC-specific concentrations and size distributions, (iv) particle size, and (v) the first field measurements at an ARM site of the influence of RH on multi-wavelength absorption by ambient AA. We have leveraged the natural variability of the atmosphere and of aerosol sources in the Houston region to (i) specifically disentangle contributions to light absorption from BC, absorbing organic carbon (brown carbon), and coatings on BC, (ii) characterize the mixing state of BC and assess the factors that give rise to compositional differences between BC-containing and BC-free aerosol, and (iii) establish how water uptake influences absorption and how any such effect depends on particle composition and BC mixing state. Overall, our study contributed to the mission of the Atmospheric System Research program in multiple ways. Through the deployment of complementary, advanced instrumentation for characterization of a wide range of aerosol properties our work helped to maximize the scientific impact of the TRACER campaign. Our work also allowed for development of new insights into the relationship(s) between aerosol composition, hygroscopicity, and the mixing state of BC with aerosol optical properties. Through this, our work has provided knowledge that can improve understanding and model representation of aerosol processes as they affect the Earth’s radiation budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Investigation of Flux Spreading in a Light-Trapping, Planar-Cavity Receiver for Enclosed Solar Particle Heating

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) technology development has recently focused on increasing the operating temperatures to accommodate high efficiency power cycles and thermochemical processes. Inert solid particles as heat transfer media enable solar receivers to operate above 700 degrees Celsius resulting in increased system thermal efficiency compared to the conventional molten salt based CSP system. An open-cavity falling-particle solar receiver that can efficiently heat particles by direct heating from concentrated solar radiation faces challenges with large particle losses from wind and unable to support thermochemical reactions. A light-trapping, planar cavity reiver (LTPCR) where particles are indirectly heated can significantly minimize the particle losses during the operation, support thermochemical reactions, and offer scalability potential. The LTPCR features an array of vertical planar receiver/absorber panels arranged within a cavity configuration. Concentrated solar radiation from heliostats is focused onto the receiver walls, where heat is indirectly transferred to solid particles flowing inside the receiver channels. Heat transfer occurs through direct contact between the receiver panel walls and particles, and can be enhanced by fluidizing particles with air. This fluidization increases particle-wall contact and extends particle residence time, maximizing heat transfer efficiency. The unique vertical planar receiver structure originated from a near-blackbody tubular light absorber, effectively distributing the incoming solar beam spread across the panel walls and trapping light. This flux spreading effect, driven by cosine projection, converts high incident solar flux into a lower, more uniform heat flux on the panel walls. This redistribution enhances heat transfer efficiency between particle-wall or reaction gases-wall, while preventing localized overheating of the receiver panel. Indirect planar cavity solar receivers completely separate solid particles from the ambient environment that can greatly reduce the thermal losses in heated particles resulting in high efficiency at high temperatures above 700 degrees Celsius. This design ensures no particle losses to the environment during the operation while open-cavity designs can experience significant particle losses from wind. An experimental investigation was conducted to observe flux spreading on the receiver panel wall. A lab-scale prototype planar receiver, fabricated using Haynes 230 alloy, was tested under direct concentrated solar radiation using the high-flux solar furnace (HFSF) facility at NREL. The experiment was performed under normal peak radiative heat fluxes ranging from 800 to 1900 kW/m2. A temperature distribution on the panel wall was measured using a thermal imaging camera (FLIR A 6600). To prevent overheating at the receiver front tip, prism-shaped heat shields (Zircar UNIFROM C1) were placed in front of the receiver, and their influence on flux spreading was also studied. Absorbed flux distribution on the panel wall was modeled using SolTrace. The total solar power and flux distributions delivered from HFSF were determined based on the heliostat mirror optical properties, direct normal irradiance (DNI) on the on-sun testing days, peak flux measurement during the on-sun testing, and shutter/attenuator settings Due to the large incident angles of the solar beam on the panel wall, the angular optical properties of Haynes 230 alloy and Zircar heat shields were incorporated into the model. This flux distribution model was then integrated into a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict the receiver panel wall temperature, which was compared with the experimental measurements. Both prediction and measurements identified a temperature hotspot at the backside of the panel, indicating that the incident solar beam can fully reach to the rear of the receiver. The heat shields positioned at the front of the receiver effectively reduced the excessive temperature rise at the receiver front tip. Overall, the temperature was well distributed over the panel wall, with a minor hotspot at the back of the receiver. The model slightly overpredicted the temperature, possibly due to discrepancies in optical properties of the panel and an underprediction of thermal loss in the receiver. The advancement of the particle LTPCR offers a viable alternative to open-cavity receivers by addressing particle loss issues. Additionally, it presents a pathway for enabling solar thermochemical processes, extending CSP technology beyond power generation to fuel and chemical production.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

The bulk motion of gas in the core of the Centaurus galaxy cluster

Galaxy clusters contain vast amounts of hot ionized gas known as the intracluster medium (ICM). In relaxed cluster cores, the radiative cooling time of the ICM is shorter than the age of the cluster. However, the absence of line emission associated with cooling suggests heating mechanisms that offset the cooling, with feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) being the most likely source. Turbulence and bulk motions, such as the oscillating (‘sloshing’) motion of the core gas in the cluster potential well, have also been proposed as mechanisms for heat distribution from the outside of the core. Here we present X-ray spectroscopic observations of the Centaurus galaxy cluster with the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission satellite. We find that the hot gas flows along the line of sight relative to the central galaxy, with velocities from 130 km s −1 to 310 km s −1 within about 30 kpc of the centre. This indicates bulk flow consistent with core gas sloshing. Although the bulk flow may prevent excessive accumulation of cooled gas at the centre, it could distribute the heat injected by the AGN and bring in thermal energy from the surrounding ICM. The velocity dispersion of the gas is found to be only ≲120 km s −1 in the core, even within about 10 kpc of the AGN. This suggests that the influence of the AGN on the surrounding ICM motion is limited in the cluster.

galaxies and clusters