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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model

The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The dGen model can be used for identifying the sectors, locations, and customers for whom adopting DERs would have a high economic value, for generating forecasts as an input to estimate distribution hosting capacity analysis, integrated resource planning, and load forecasting, and for understanding the economic or policy conditions in which DER adoption becomes viable, and for illustrating sensitivity to market and policy changes such as retail electricity rate structures, net energy metering, and technology costs.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy I-Corps 2023: Distributed Wind Energy Toolkit

This presentation covers the purpose and scope of an Energy I-Corps project focused on refining a suite of analytical tools designed to support distributed wind deployment. These tools - the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen), Distributed Wind Tools Assessing Performance (TAP), and the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) - combine to provide users with the ability to simulate consumer purchasing behavior, accurately assess wind resource to better predict turbine performance, and effectively design and optimize hybrid systems that include distributed wind.

deployment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Distributed Generation in California

In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

USAID Colombia Young Leaders Workforce Training Program Action Plans: Forecasting Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia

As part of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Young Leaders Workforce Training Program in Colombia, the Association of Renewable Energies Colombia (SER) participants leveraged their training and professional experience to develop an action plan for modeling the projected adoption of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) out to 2050 for the city of Barranquilla, Colombia. This case study provides an overview of the key activities and outcomes of the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen™) Colombia project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting Distributed PV Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia [Slides]

The objective of the dGen Colombia project is to provide projections to 2050 on distributed PV deployment by sector for a range of scenarios for Barranquilla, Colombia. NREL used the open-source Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen) adapted for international projects for this analysis. As part of this analysis, technical potential, economic potential, and adoption projections of rooftop and groundmount PV for the city of Barranquilla are presented. Five main scenarios and their combinations were modeled to provide insight on the impact of increased demand from electric vehicles, air conditioning, and time-of-use tariffs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 8: Equitable Rooftop Solar Access and Benefits

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on analysis of customer-sited rooftop solar and storage as a means to reduce electricity bills for low- and moderate-income (LMI) households, multifamily building residents, and renters, who traditionally lack access to bill savings from rooftop solar. Specifically, NREL modeled customer-sited solar and storage adoption using the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen™)1 model through 2035 and developed scenarios to identify programs or policies that could support equitable access to bill savings from rooftop solar or solar-plus-storage. Scenarios tested include a direct-install program for LMI customers, net metering for LMI customers, and equitable distribution of benefits from installing solar between owners and renters of renter-occupied buildings. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Powered by dGen Webinar [Slides]

NLR's Powered By Webinar Series featuring NLR's dGen Modeling Tool. The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGenTM) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The model enables analysis at multiple geographic levels (national, state, and utility, or below) and offers sophistication in representation of decision-making regarding economic and behavioral considerations. Analysts have used dGen to answer questions about load forecasting and integrated resource planning, policy analysis, locational value of distributed energy resources, and more. dGen is open source, and various energy organizations - including independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and the California Energy Commission - use the model internally.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study - Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.

backup power↗
DOE OSTI2020

Open Source dGen: Beta Release

This presentation provides an update on the dGen beta release as it approaches the full release in September 2020. The presentation includes the open source approach, updates for the open source, a dGen setup and demo, and the road map for the full release and upcoming reports.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can Wholesale Electricity Markets Achieve Resource Adequacy and High Clean Energy Generation Targets in the Presence of Self-Interested Actors?

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wholesale Electricity Markets and Resource Adequacy with High Clean Energy Generation Targets

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wholesale Electricity Market Design to Support Resource Adequacy

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

agent based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Integrated Energy Systems: Advanced Nuclear Plants with Thermal Storage for Dynamic and Flexible Operation in Diverse Markets

Energy supply, distribution, and demand are continuously evolving in accordance with the integration of new power generation sources. In the United States, there is a progressive shift toward incorporating fluctuating energy sources such as wind and solar into the energy mix, alongside the distributed generation. Simultaneously, we are seeing a revolution in consumer technologies such as electric vehicles, energy devices for both residential and commercial use, and industrial processes—all contributing to a fundamental change in energy consumption dynamics. These scenarios have led to huge demand for enhanced flexibility from nuclear power plants (NPPs), requiring them to operate with unprecedented adaptability. Furthermore, advanced NPPs (A-NPPs) could potentially apply to scenarios in which power generation flexibility is prioritized over its current and conventional baseload generation capacity for traditional demand patterns. The present work covers several configurations for coupling nuclear energy production with thermal energy storage (TES). Previous work evaluated systems entailing a simple nuclear-TES configuration that used steam as a heat source for the TES of three different advanced reactors (ARs), but its heat diversion ratio (HDR) for charging was limited. The present work proposes a new configuration that features full decoupling of the nuclear reactor and the power cycle, using reactor coolant (i.e., gas) as a heat source for the TES and offering a theoretically unlimited HDR. This configuration is, however, more complex, as both high- and low-temperature TES (HT-TES and LT-TES) systems are required in order to cover the extended temperature range. Although this configuration imposes certain limitations on the discharge system configuration, it also presents the opportunity to design a more efficient system. For this case in particular, a steam reheat cycle is advantageous. Conventional TES systems take advantage of nominal efficiency when discharging, whereas the reheat cycle in the fully decoupled TES system affords a significant efficiency increase over conventional cases. Material selection, component/equipment sizing, and costing analyses were performed, followed by economic dispatch and size optimization. Dynamic models were developed for the decoupled system in order to generate insights into aspects of off design operation (e.g., drops in cycle efficiency), and these models enable exploration of potential mitigation strategies for addressing such drops. The models also highlight the need to design fail-safes that ensure continuous operational stability and minimize the impact of power ramping on the reactor parameters.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

FERC Order No. 2222 and Considerations for Distributed Wind

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued Order No. 2222 in October 2020. The rule directs Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators (ISOs) to amend their tariffs and participation models to accommodate heterogeneous distributed energy resource (DER) aggregations in the wholesale energy markets that they operate, including capacity, energy, and ancillary service markets. The Commission issued the rule to better capture the benefits provided by DERs deployed in the United States, whose use has been expanding rapidly. The Commission defines DERs as “any resource located on the distribution system, any subsystem thereof or behind a customer meter,” including but not limited to “electric storage resources, distributed generation, demand response, energy efficiency, thermal storage, and electric vehicles and their supply equipment.” The rule aims to increase DER participation in wholesale markets by allowing the creation of DER aggregations, in which multiple DERs that are too small to meet minimum capacity requirements for wholesale markets individually would be able to participate in markets as a single unit. As of June 20, 2023, all ISOs have filed initial compliance plans and a number have begun implementation. Compliance dates range from 2024 to 2029, with Midcontinent ISO having the latest date of compliance proposed for 2029. Southwest Power Pool still has an outstanding date, having no final order yet from FERC, but a target date of the third quarter of calendar year 2025. The rule, which is technology agnostic and requires ISOs to create participation plans that accommodate different DERs, provides an opportunity for distributed wind market expansion. In addition, distributed wind can bring benefits to heterogenous DER aggregations. These benefits include resource diversity (i.e., a complementary generation profile to other types of distributed generation), its small footprint and ability to be co-located with load, and its potential to provide frequency response, voltage support, and black start services, among other ancillary services. This report provides a status update on FERC Order No. 2222, the current state of ISO compliance, and information relevant to the distributed wind industry as DER aggregators and other stakeholders expand their participation to wholesale energy markets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Planning and Operations in Electricity Markets Under System Transformation

United States electricity markets, planning mechanisms, and operational procedures are currently evolving in concert with three key trends. First, a range of new resources—solar, wind, energy storage, hybrid co-located storage, and distributed energy—are coming online and require new solutions to ensure they are efficiently integrated into existing systems. Second, consumers now face more opportunities to participate in markets by providing demand response and engaging in two-way interactions with the grid. Third, there is an increasing need for enhanced coordination between generation and transmission planning as well as across transmission and distribution systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗