Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Device Failure Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

Optimizing performance and yield of vertical GaN diodes using wafer scale optical techniques

Abstract To improve the manufacturing of vertical GaN devices for power electronics applications, the effects of defects in GaN substrates need to be better understood. Many non-destructive techniques including photoluminescence, Raman spectroscopy and optical profilometry, can be used to detect defects in the substrate and epitaxial layers. Raman spectroscopy was used to identify points of high crystal stress and non-uniform conductivity in a substrate, while optical profilometry was used to identify bumps and pits in a substrate which could cause catastrophic device failures. The effect of the defects was studied using vertical P-i-N diodes with a single zone junction termination extention (JTE) edge termination and isolation, which were formed via nitrogen implantation. Diodes were fabricated on and off of sample abnormalities to study their effects. From electrical measurements, it was discovered that the devices could consistently block voltages over 1000 V (near the theoretical value of the epitaxial layer design), and the forward bias behavior could consistently produce on-resistance below 2 mΩ cm 2 , which is an excellent value considering DC biasing was used and no substrate thinning was performed. It was found that high crystal stress increased the probability of device failure from 6 to 20%, while an inhomogeneous carrier concentration had little effect on reverse bias behavior, and slightly (~ 3%) increased the on-resistance (R on ). Optical profilometry was able to detect regions of high surface roughness, bumps, and pits; in which, the majority of the defects detected were benign. However a large bump in the termination region of the JTE or a deep pit can induce a low voltage catastrophic failure, and increased crystal stress detected by the Raman correlated to the optical profilometry with associated surface topography.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reliability Estimation for One-Shot Devices (Rev. 1)

We present an engineering-oriented summary of statistical methods for estimation of the reliability (or equivalently, failure probability) of one-shot devices such as explosive detonators and other weapon components. Estimates may be given as single points or intervals, based on pass/fail tests, margin analysis, computational models, expert judgment, or a combination of these. We focus on highly reliable devices for which few or no failures are expected to occur in testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Statistical analysis of displacement damage in small devices from neutron and ion irradiation

Modern semiconductor devices, such as gate-all-around nanosheet field-effect transistors (GAA NS FETs), are smaller than displacement damage cascades from fission neutrons. In this regime, device failure may occur through low-probability single events, rather than by parametric degradation previously seen in larger devices. Here, we present a statistical model that predicts the probability of a damage event in a small device and the probability distribution of the magnitude, i.e., number of displacements within the device, from each event. The model is developed first for neutron irradiation and then for energetic ion irradiation. The model is consistent with results from recent experiments in which lithium-ion irradiation produced stepwise increases in subthreshold current in GAA NS FETs.

Wampler, W. R.↗

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

On the impact of tidal generation and energy storage integration in PV-rich electric distribution systems

Deep decarbonization of power system operations requires the maximal utilization of available renewable resources. At distribution-level operations, however, grid operators can face numerous challenges in integrating renewables at scale owing to the inherent intermittence of renewable energy resources. These include phenomena such as voltage fluctuations, which are typically mitigated through control actuators such as on-load tap changers (OLTC) as well as energy storage devices, such as battery energy storage systems (BESS). On the one hand, high intermittence of the available renewable portfolio may require increasingly aggressive control of actuators, thereby accelerating the probability of equipment failure. On the other hand, integrating BESS operations and having a diverse renewable generation portfolio can typically help stagger power/energy flow to mitigate the aforementioned adverse impacts. In this paper, we employ a Bayesian framework for equipment lifetime estimation to understand the impact of including tidal energy resources and BESS in distribution system operations for feeders having substantial distribution photovoltaic generation. Our results indicate that while tidal energy alone may slightly decrease equipment reliability, the adverse impact on reliability is significantly magnified by a generation portfolio consisting of tidal generation and photovoltaic generation. Here, we also study the tidal and photovoltaic hosting capacity problem with and without energy storage systems using equipment reliability as an added constraint. We conclude that energy storage increases the reliability-constrained hosting capacity of the distribution system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Risk-Averse Approach for Distribution Grid Expansion Planning

Recent episodes of natural disasters have challenged the resilience of power grids. Adequate distribution grid planning that properly captures the risk aversion of the utility system planner is a key factor to increase the flexibility of distribution networks to circumvent these events. In this paper, we propose a methodology to determine the optimal portfolio of investments in lines and storage devices in order to minimize a convex combination between expected value and CVaR of operational costs, including energy not served, while taking into account the multistage nature of the energy storage management within this context. While the expected value of energy not served has been traditionally employed to tackle routine failures, we also minimize the CVaR of energy not served to address high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology with a 54-Bus system test case.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cyber Attack Sequences Generation for Electric Power Grid

Security assessment of cyber-physical energy systems (CPESs) such as the electric power grid is a critical operation to maintain availability, reliability, and quality of service in the presence of persistent threats from malicious cyber actors. Existing security assessment approaches such as penetration testing and red teaming rely on subject matter expert experience and forensic cyber analysis of historical events to perform realistic, threat-informed assessments of CPES defense. CPESs have a large attack surface because of the heterogeneity and complexity of underlying topology, devices, measurements, and vulnerabilities. The aforementioned approaches lead to partial coverage of the attack surface with a large set of unknown but possible exploits. There is a need to automate the CPES attack surface discovery and contextualize it for relevant, highly probable, real-world attack scenarios. We propose a methodology and framework to facilitate the discovery of the CPES attack surface. We present a multilayer attack graph with ranked attack sequences to describe CPES failure scenarios. We present a work-in-progress framework that lists key components to automate the attack modeling and sequence generation. We demonstrate the published National Electric Sector Cybersecurity Organization Resource CPES failure scenario to highlight the trustworthiness of generated attack sequences.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters: Preprint

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

industry support↗

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

converter↗

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements (i.e., high, medium, and low) performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area-use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

life cycle analysis↗

The organic redox transistor for neuromorphic computing

Inspired by the in-memory computing architectures of biological systems, neuromorphic computing using crossbar arrays of artificial synapses based on non-volatile memory (NVM) devices with variable conductances has emerged as a new paradigm to enable massively parallel and ultra-low power computing hardware for data centric applications. Although inference has been demonstrated successfully using crossbars based on a variety of NMV technologies, efficient learning and scaling to large arrays (>10 6 elements) remains a challenge due to the synaptic elements' non-ideal electrical characteristics which degrades ANN accuracy. A further challenge is that in the conductive state memristors draw large currents >μA resulting in significant voltage drops in the interconnect wires and increased probability of failure in scaled arrays. We suggest the organic polymer redox transistor (RT) is an alternate approach that could solve many of these challenges, enabling both inference and parallel outer product updates, as recently demonstrated by Fuller et al. An RT consists of redox-active channel and gate electrodes in contact with a liquid or solid electrolyte. lon insertion through the electrolyte controls the channel electronic conductivity, while electron transfer through an external circuit maintains overall charge neutrality. Unlike a rechargeable battery, in the RT the voltage built-up across the electrolyte is kept to a minimum (typically <100 mV) by using the same material for the gate and channel. Elimination of the voltage offset simplifies integration of the RT into programmable arrays by enabling the use of various selectors. RTs based on inorganic and organic materials have been recently demonstrated with conductance tuning occurring at potentials of just a few mV and hundreds to thousands of linearly and symmetrically programmable conductance states, enabling near ideal accuracy in neural network simulations. Introduced in the 1980's, redox transistors with metallic gate electrodes and organic channel materials, also known as organic electrochemical transistors (OECTs), have been explored for a variety of applications such as chem- and bio-sensing, neural interfaces, and low cost printed circuits. A typical channel material for OECTs is the conducting polymer poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) doped with poly(styrene sulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS). PEDOT is a p-type semiconducting polymer with mobile positively charged polarons that hop chain-to-chain.

Talin, Albert Alec↗

Failure investigation and mitigation after experimental research reactor fuel plate deformation in an irradiation device

Experimental research reactor fuel testing is conducted in the Belgian Reactor 2 (BR2) of the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK CEN) in dedicated irradiation vehicles or rigs. One such vehicle allows flat full-size fuel plates to be irradiated by inserting them into slotted baskets that captures a narrow portion of the longitudinal edges of the plates. The motion of the fuel plates within the baskets is possible within the narrow slots and thus, the plate is considered to be unattached. The design intentionally omits fixing mechanisms of the fuel plates to the baskets to facilitate the inspection and repositioning of the plates between the irradiation cycles and the accommodation of thermal expansion of the plates in the lateral direction. However, loosely inserted fuel plates have weak structural boundary conditions allowing for larger out-of-plane deflections caused by hydrodynamic loads exerted by the flowing coolant, as compared to those of fixed plates. Unexpected large deformations of plates occurred in several irradiation cycles that further resulted in a loss of cladding integrity. These deformations could not be attributed to a single source. This triggered a series of thermal hydraulic, structural, and fluid-structure interaction analyses aiming at understanding the observed phenomenon. The analyses revealed that, for a certain combination of unfavorable manufacturing and assembly tolerances, fuel plate edges could escape out of the slots in the irradiation basket due to the hydrodynamic load. Subsequently, the plate could become wedged inside the basket coolant channel opening. This resulted in reduced coolant flow and accelerated temperature increase and thermal expansion of the plate while under irradiation. This unfavorable feedback loop could then lead to excessive plate surface temperatures, deformed plates and cladding failure, as was observed in the experiments. These analyses not only provided a probable cause of the fuel plate failures, but also resulted in a new and improved design of the irradiation basket to avoid these issues in the future. In conclusion, a series of recent successful irradiations confirm that the sources of failures were identified correctly, and the implemented mitigations were adequate.

BR2↗

Simulation and Analysis on Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) under SBLOCA scenario by using Cardinal to support the fracture mechanics analyses

The structural components that comprise nuclear reactors and their supporting structures are subjected to harsh operating environments that can challenge their integrity, especially after exposure for extended durations or under accident condition. As one of the most significant components of a Reactor, the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is exposed to an aggressive environment during the operation time (e.g. more than 40 years). Ageing degradation mechanisms (e.g. thermos-fatigue) could grow initial defects up to a critical size, increasing the susceptibility to failure in the RPV. The conventional methods are mostly based on simple crack and structure geometries. Very limited studies consider the real conditions of the RPV subjected to a thermal shock due to a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). During a LOCA event, the most severe conditions take place when the emergency core cooling (ECC) water is injected inside the cold legs filled initially with hotter water and/or steam. The rapid cooling of the down-comer and the internal RPV surface followed probably by re-pressurization of the RPV causes large temperature gradients and variation of pressure which induces thermal-mechanical stresses. In order to develop the model for integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized thermal shock (PTS), a multi-physics simulation, which includes the thermo-hydraulic, thermo-mechanical and fracture mechanics analyses is necessary. The multi-physics simulations are performed using Cardinal, a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and other multi-physics sub-modules within the MOOSE framework. Cardinal now fully supports MOOSE stochastic perturbations of NekRS models with varying boundary conditions, initial conditions, material properties, and any other quantity which is defined by a kernel (such as coefficients in a momentum source model). The implementation is designed in a flexible manner so that scalar values are sent from MOOSE into a user scratch space in NekRS, which can then be applied for any purpose within the NekRS case files (both on the host and device). When modeling PTS, several factors can impact the results significantly. In this report, the impacts of the geometry of the model, Reynolds number and buoyancy effect are investigated. Two geometry, i.e., a simplified model and a realistic RPV model, with both laminar and turbulent flow condition are adopted for the PTS simulation with and without buoyancy effect. The purpose of the investigation is to understand the impact of these factors on the prediction of temperature history of RPV. The accurate prediction on the temperature evolution, which will be exported to Grizzly code for further analyses on the progression of aging mechanisms and their effects on the integrity of RPV structures, is very crucial. Based on the understanding of these factors, a more sophisticated model is built to analysis the PTS under SBLOCA scenario. A literature survey is conducted to pick the SBLOCA scenario for the multi-physics simulation. The analysis helps to explain the form and the transformation of the cold plum when the ECC is activated under SBLOCA. This model can be can be applied to study the PTS effect for different RPV configurations. The results can help to assess structural component degradation for advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗