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Results for “Device Failure Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Reliability assessment of multiple quantum well avalanche photodiodes

The reliability of doped-barrier AlGaAs/GsAs multi-quantum well avalanche photodiodes fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated via accelerated life tests. Dark current and breakdown voltage were the parameters monitored. The activation energy of the degradation mechanism and median device lifetime were determined. Device failure probability as a function of time was computed using the lognormal model. Analysis using the electron beam induced current method revealed the degradation to be caused by ionic impurities or contamination in the passivation layer.

Yun, Ilgu↗

New Approach to Total Dose Specification for Spacecraft Electronics

Variability of the space radiation environment is investigated with regard to total dose specification for spacecraft electronics. It is shown to have a significant impact. A new approach is developed for total dose requirements that replaces the radiation design margin concept with failure probability during a mission.

Device Failure Probability↗

Optimizing performance and yield of vertical GaN diodes using wafer scale optical techniques

Abstract To improve the manufacturing of vertical GaN devices for power electronics applications, the effects of defects in GaN substrates need to be better understood. Many non-destructive techniques including photoluminescence, Raman spectroscopy and optical profilometry, can be used to detect defects in the substrate and epitaxial layers. Raman spectroscopy was used to identify points of high crystal stress and non-uniform conductivity in a substrate, while optical profilometry was used to identify bumps and pits in a substrate which could cause catastrophic device failures. The effect of the defects was studied using vertical P-i-N diodes with a single zone junction termination extention (JTE) edge termination and isolation, which were formed via nitrogen implantation. Diodes were fabricated on and off of sample abnormalities to study their effects. From electrical measurements, it was discovered that the devices could consistently block voltages over 1000 V (near the theoretical value of the epitaxial layer design), and the forward bias behavior could consistently produce on-resistance below 2 mΩ cm 2 , which is an excellent value considering DC biasing was used and no substrate thinning was performed. It was found that high crystal stress increased the probability of device failure from 6 to 20%, while an inhomogeneous carrier concentration had little effect on reverse bias behavior, and slightly (~ 3%) increased the on-resistance (R on ). Optical profilometry was able to detect regions of high surface roughness, bumps, and pits; in which, the majority of the defects detected were benign. However a large bump in the termination region of the JTE or a deep pit can induce a low voltage catastrophic failure, and increased crystal stress detected by the Raman correlated to the optical profilometry with associated surface topography.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Confidence Level Based Approach to Total Dose Specification for Spacecraft Electronics

A confidence level based approach to total dose radiation hardness assurance is presented for spacecraft electronics. It is applicable to both ionizing and displacement damage dose. Results are compared to the traditional approach that uses radiation design margin and advantages of the new approach are discussed.

Total Dose Distributions in Space↗

A Confidence-Based Approach to Including Survivors in a Probabilistic TID Failure Assessment

A probabilistic total ionizing dose (TID) failure assessment is extended to include survivor data, enabling the bounding of failure probability to a desired confidence level (CL) without failure data. The extension provides an avenue for analyzing microelectronics tested for TID without reaching a failure mode, a scenario often encountered by missions utilizing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. Using the type-I censored likelihood formulation and a realistic upper bound on expected device performance, the failure probability space is bounded by confidence contours within the context of a variable environment. The framework accommodates any type of distribution assumed for the part failure or the environment under consideration. Furthermore, the framework can be utilized pre-emptively to plan future device TID tests, minimizing costs while meeting survival requirements. Heritage data may also be used as survivors to further minimize testing costs when parts are from the same lot, but the amount of constraint derived from heritage is limited. Altogether, the framework enables a formal, mathematically rigorous analysis of radiation tolerant devices tested to a maximum dose, as well as flight heritage, in a hardness assurance methodology.

confidence↗

Reliability Estimation for One-Shot Devices (Rev. 1)

We present an engineering-oriented summary of statistical methods for estimation of the reliability (or equivalently, failure probability) of one-shot devices such as explosive detonators and other weapon components. Estimates may be given as single points or intervals, based on pass/fail tests, margin analysis, computational models, expert judgment, or a combination of these. We focus on highly reliable devices for which few or no failures are expected to occur in testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Statistical analysis of displacement damage in small devices from neutron and ion irradiation

Modern semiconductor devices, such as gate-all-around nanosheet field-effect transistors (GAA NS FETs), are smaller than displacement damage cascades from fission neutrons. In this regime, device failure may occur through low-probability single events, rather than by parametric degradation previously seen in larger devices. Here, we present a statistical model that predicts the probability of a damage event in a small device and the probability distribution of the magnitude, i.e., number of displacements within the device, from each event. The model is developed first for neutron irradiation and then for energetic ion irradiation. The model is consistent with results from recent experiments in which lithium-ion irradiation produced stepwise increases in subthreshold current in GAA NS FETs.

Wampler, W. R.↗

Fault Tree Based Diagnosis with Optimal Test Sequencing for Field Service Engineers

When field service engineers go to customer sites to service equipment, they want to diagnose and repair failures quickly and cost effectively. Symptoms exhibited by failed equipment frequently suggest several possible causes which require different approaches to diagnosis. This can lead the engineer to follow several fruitless paths in the diagnostic process before they find the actual failure. To assist in this situation, we have developed the Fault Tree Diagnosis and Optimal Test Sequence (FTDOTS) software system that performs automated diagnosis and ranks diagnostic hypotheses based on failure probability and the time or cost required to isolate and repair each failure. FTDOTS first finds a set of possible failures that explain exhibited symptoms by using a fault tree reliability model as a diagnostic knowledge to rank the hypothesized failures based on how likely they are and how long it would take or how much it would cost to isolate and repair them. This ordering suggests an optimal sequence for the field service engineer to investigate the hypothesized failures in order to minimize the time or cost required to accomplish the repair task. Previously, field service personnel would arrive at the customer site and choose which components to investigate based on past experience and service manuals. Using FTDOTS running on a portable computer, they can now enter a set of symptoms and get a list of possible failures ordered in an optimal test sequence to help them in their decisions. If facilities are available, the field engineer can connect the portable computer to the malfunctioning device for automated data gathering. FTDOTS is currently being applied to field service of medical test equipment. The techniques are flexible enough to use for many different types of devices. If a fault tree model of the equipment and information about component failure probabilities and isolation times or costs are available, a diagnostic knowledge base for that device can be developed easily.

Iverson, David L.↗

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗

Accelerated battery-life testing - A concept

Test program, employing empirical, statistical and physical methods, determines service life and failure probabilities of electrochemical cells and batteries, and is applicable to testing mechanical, electrical, and chemical devices. Data obtained aids long-term performance prediction of battery or cell.

Mccallum, J.↗

Inadvertently programmed bits in Samsung 128 Mbit flash devices: a flaky investigation

JPL's X2000 avionics design pioneers new territory by specifying a non-volatile memory (NVM) board based on flash memories. The Samsung 128Mb device chosen was found to demonstrate bit errors (mostly program disturbs) and block-erase failures that increase with cycling. Low temperature, certain pseudo- random patterns, and, probably, higher bias increase the observable bit errors. An experiment was conducted to determine the wearout dependence of the bit errors to 100k cycles at cold temperature using flight-lot devices (some pre-irradiated). The results show an exponential growth rate, a wide part-to-part variation, and some annealing behavior.

flash memory program disturb wearout erase fail re↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Frame synchronization for a channel with different data rates

In some communication links, different data rates are used at different times on the same channel and each is assigned a separate frame synchronization (sync) marker. The frame search is completed within a finite number of frame intervals once both phase-lock and bit-sync are achieved because the incoming data rate can change. The probability of failure to frame-lock, and an upper bound of probability of false frame-lock in a frame search mode are derived for a communication link with a 10 to the -5th bit error probability. The probability of failure to detect data-rate change and the probability of false detection of data-rate change in a frame-lock mode are discussed. In a frame-lock mode, the probability of failure to detect data-rate change and probability detection of data-rate change an equal to 4.96 x 10 to the -12th. A frame-lock device can be used for the Space Station Freedom Ku-band return link.

Kwon, Hyuck M.↗

A study of the comparative performance of six lightning warning systems

An analysis of mining explosive accident reports indicates a need for clear and ample warning of approaching electrical storms to reduce injuries/fatalities due to lightning induced premature detonation. Six lightning warning devices were comparatively evaluated at three test sites. The devices tested were: (1) flash counter, (2) corona point, (3) radioactive probe, (4) field mill, (5) azimuth/range locator, and (6) triangulation locator. The test sites were chosen to provide system evaluation under varied thunderstorm conditions. The devices were tested at San Antonio, Texas, Kennedy Space Center, Florida and Langmuir Laboratory, New Mexico. Comparative performance is reviewed in terms of alarm reliability, false alarm, and failure to alarm probabilities. Lightning warning system requirements and methods of relating warning criteria to explosive hazard are discussed.

Johnson, R. L.↗

On the impact of tidal generation and energy storage integration in PV-rich electric distribution systems

Deep decarbonization of power system operations requires the maximal utilization of available renewable resources. At distribution-level operations, however, grid operators can face numerous challenges in integrating renewables at scale owing to the inherent intermittence of renewable energy resources. These include phenomena such as voltage fluctuations, which are typically mitigated through control actuators such as on-load tap changers (OLTC) as well as energy storage devices, such as battery energy storage systems (BESS). On the one hand, high intermittence of the available renewable portfolio may require increasingly aggressive control of actuators, thereby accelerating the probability of equipment failure. On the other hand, integrating BESS operations and having a diverse renewable generation portfolio can typically help stagger power/energy flow to mitigate the aforementioned adverse impacts. In this paper, we employ a Bayesian framework for equipment lifetime estimation to understand the impact of including tidal energy resources and BESS in distribution system operations for feeders having substantial distribution photovoltaic generation. Our results indicate that while tidal energy alone may slightly decrease equipment reliability, the adverse impact on reliability is significantly magnified by a generation portfolio consisting of tidal generation and photovoltaic generation. Here, we also study the tidal and photovoltaic hosting capacity problem with and without energy storage systems using equipment reliability as an added constraint. We conclude that energy storage increases the reliability-constrained hosting capacity of the distribution system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗