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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlating and Simulating Socio-Demographically Driven Residential End-Use Activity Schedules

Incorporating socio-demographic and behavioral considerations into decision-support tools is crucial for identifying gaps and addressing consumer needs to ensure reliable and affordable energy solutions. In energy simulation models, the correlation between socio-demographics and time-use behavior is not well-captured. Thus, we developed a large-scale simulation workflow to generate schedules for 10 residential activities across 24 population segments defined by age, income, and employment status. Using pre-pandemic 2015-2019 American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data, we used ANOVA to confirm the correlation between demographic factors and time use. We explored three k-modes clustering methods-backward, forward, and a new hybrid approach-to delineate the occupancy patterns based on demographics. Using the probability of cluster membership for each population segment and a time inhomogeneous Markov chain to generate activity transition probabilities for each cluster, we simulated 50,000 schedules per segment and validated them against the ATUS data. The hybrid method produced the most socio-demographically differentiated clusters while demonstrating comparable performance to other approaches, with an overall root mean square error of 0.12 for both weekday and weekend schedules. Thus, the hybrid method, where each cluster is dominated by certain demographic segments and occupancy patterns, offers more modeling versatility in terms of scenario analysis. The new workflow improves the socio demographic differentiation of energy consumption by considering differences in time use. This approach enables future research on demographically segmented time of use (TOU) energy consumption, including impacts of TOU utility bills and rate analysis, long-run marginal emissions, and energy retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recognizability of Demographically Altered Computerized Facial Approximations in an Automated Facial Recognition Context for Potential Application in Unidentified Persons Data Repositories

This study examined the recognizability of demographically altered facial approximations for potential utility in unidentified persons tracking systems. Five computer-generated approximations were generated for each of 26 African male participants using the following demographic parameters: (i) African male (true demographics), (ii) African female, (iii) Caucasian male, (iv) Asian male, and (v) Hispanic male. Overall, 62% of the true demographic facial approximations for the 26 African male participants examined were matched to a corresponding life photo within the top 50 images of a candidate list generated from an automated blind search of an optimally standardized gallery of 6159 photographs. When the African male participants were processed as African females, the identification rate was 50%. In contrast, less congruent identification rates were observed when the African male participants were processed as Caucasian (42%), Asian (35%), and Hispanic (27%) males. The observed results suggest that approximations generated using the opposite sex may be operationally informative if sex is unknown. The performance of approximations generated using alternative ancestry assignments, however, was less congruent with the performance of the true demographic approximation (African male) and may not yield as operationally constructive data as sex-altered approximations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗
DOE OSTI2025

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic drivers of gut microbiome diversity

Abstract The gut microbiome plays a central role in orchestrating metabolic, immune, and neurological functions essential for human health. While extensive research has explored the effects of diseases and pathological conditions on gut microbiome composition, the influence of demographic factors remains underexplored, limiting our understanding of microbiome variations in disease states. This study addresses this gap by investigating the impact of demographic variables, including age, sex, and geography, on gut microbiome diversity in healthy individuals. Using the American Gut Project’s extensive dataset and the QIIME2 bioinformatics pipeline, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of microbial profiles across diverse demographic groups. Our results revealed significant age-related shifts in microbial richness and composition, and geographic location strongly influenced phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, sex exhibited limited impact on microbial diversity within healthy BMI ranges. These findings highlight the critical role of demographic factors in shaping gut microbiome diversity, providing a foundational framework to better contextualize disease-related microbiome variations and advance personalized healthcare approaches.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2022

UrbanPop: A spatial microsimulation framework for exploring demographic influences on human dynamics

Ensuring the social equity of planning measures in social systems requires an understanding of human dynamics, particularly how individual relationships, activities, and interactions intersect with individual needs. Spatial microsimulation models (SMSMs) support planning for human security goals by representing human dynamics through realistic, georeferenced synthetic populations, that a) provide a complete representation of social systems while b) also protecting individual privacy. In this paper, we present UrbanPop, an open and reproducible SMSM framework for analysis of human dynamics with high spatial, temporal, and demographic resolution. UrbanPop creates synthetic populations of demographically detailed worker and student agents, positioning them first at probable nighttime locations (home), then moving them to probable daytime locations (work/school). Summary aggregations of these populations match the granular detail available at the census block group level in the American Community Survey Summary File (SF), providing realistic approximations of the actual population. UrbanPop users can select particular demographic traits important in their application, resulting in a highly tailored agent population. We first lay out UrbanPop's baseline methodology, including population synthesis, activity modeling, and diagnostics, then demonstrate these capabilities by developing case studies of shifting population distributions and high-risk populations in Knox County, TN during the global COVID-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global divergence in urban demographic change and migration patterns

Cities are central to economic development, climate adaptation and social stability, yet globally consistent evidence on how city populations are changing remains limited. Here we analyze annual age- and sex-structured population estimates for more than 10,000 cities worldwide from 2000 to 2020 and show that urban demographic change was highly uneven. Globally, the ratio of children and older adults to working-age adults declined from 0.87 to 0.59, but smaller cities remained consistently younger than larger cities, especially in Africa. We also find pronounced spatial variation in urban sex ratios, including strong male surpluses in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, consistent with patterns of labor migration. Finally, we estimate that 45% of urban population growth was attributable to net migration and 55% to natural increase. These results show that national averages can obscure substantial differences between cities, and highlight the value of globally consistent city-level demographic estimates for understanding regional demographic change and informing locally tailored urban planning.

development studies↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Demographic Factors Behind the User Preferences in Ridesharing Services

Ridesharing is an increasingly prevalent form of transportation. Personal and pooled rideshare services are the two modes of ridesharing available on the market. While personal rideshare features higher time efficiency and better service experience, especially in terms of privacy, pooled rideshare has better energy efficiency and can reduce traffic congestion. To encourage users to utilize pooled rideshare, it is crucial to understand the factors behind preferences between pooled and personal rideshare services. This study conducted a survey study on a sample of 2,884 participants from the U.S. The stated-choice method was employed to collect the usage rate of pooled rideshare in designed scenarios. A detailed analysis of pooled rideshare usage rates among participants from different demographic backgrounds was performed. The results demonstrated demographic factors related to variations in pooled rideshare usage rates. Findings from this study explore the impacts of demographic factors on people's choices in ridesharing and provide important information for the modeling and optimization of ridesharing transportation systems.

Su, Haotian↗
DOE OSTI2025

DEMographic MicrOSimulation (DEMOS) v2.0

DEMOS is an agent-based simulation framework used to evolve population demographic characteristics or lifecycle events such as education, marital status etc. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies of short-term and long-term lifecycle events often influential in downstream transportation and land use modeling. An important facet of DEMOS is that it is dynamic, meaning it captures the impact of an agent's demographic characteristics in year 't' on their demographic status in year 't+1'. This has important consequences on medium- and long-term downstream modeling in different domains, such as transportation where decisions such as household vehicle transactions (i.e., buying, selling, or replacing a vehicle) depend current or past household vehicle holdings as well as household transitions. Other downstream modeling that can be enabled by DEMOS include building technology adoption or retrofit decisions, and more. DEMOS modules include: individual age progression year by year, individual mortality events, household restructuring events including marriage match-making; household birth events; individual education participation; individual labor force participation; child leaving household; household in-migration and out-migration for the region; household residence location choice and household mandatory destination choice (work and school). This version of DEMOS is tailored to be integrated with the land use simulation software UrbanSim.

Caicedo, Juan [UrbanSim, Inc.]↗
DOE OSTI2022

LANL Regular Employee Population and Demographics, FY15-21

This document summarizes an effort to compile and analyze the LANL regular employee population’s demographic attributes and trends between FY15-FY21 using MicroStrategy, a web-based data analytics and visualization tool. LANL’s HR Division collected and prepared data for the Weapons Program’s annual reporting activities for the 2017 through 2023 NNSA Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP). Los Alamos workforce data represent the fiscal year-end snapshot of the permanent employee population who are categorized by the Common Occupational Classification System (COCS). This work enables further analyses, including trends for all workforce attributes presented in the SSMPs as well as a definition of a crosswalk between COCS categorization and the internal laboratory job classification hierarchy. Data for other sites and the federal workforce, as shown in the SSMPs, are included and corresponding figures can be visualized within the MicroStrategy tool. A portable, Excel-based version of the tool was developed and shared with the multi-site workforce working group. This summary highlights selected aspects of the LANL regular workforce. The data analyses and visualizations communicate insights within three major themes regarding permanent LANL employees: 1) demographic transformation, 2) attrition, and 3) skills. Regarding demographic transformation, and consistent with the general trend across the enterprise, early career regular employees are the fastest growing group, with growth ranging between 12-34% year-to-year over the seven-year period analyzed. The data also reflect effects of internal and external factors on attrition; the large spike in separations in FY18 aligns with the contract transition from LANS to Triad and the dip in attrition between FY20-FY21 is likely a result of the global pandemic. The population of regular employees in general management, engineer, and operator COCS categories have the fastest growth rates amongst all the occupational categories. The MicroStrategy and Excel tools provide additional details and trends.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Demographic Variables on the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model Multigroup Analyses (PRAMMA)

Building on our prior research with a national survey sample of 5385 US participants, the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM) was built upon two factor analyses. This exploratory study extends the PRAM framework using the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model Multigroup Analyses (PRAMMA) to examine how 16 demographic variables influence and interact with the acceptance of Pooled Rideshare (PR), filling a gap in understanding user segmentation and personalization. Using a national sample of 5385 US participants, this methodological approach allowed for the evaluation of how PRAM variables such as safety, privacy, service experience, and environmental impact vary across diverse groups, including gender, generation, driver’s license, rideshare experience, education level, employment status, household size, number of children, income, vehicle ownership, and typical commuting practices. Factors such as convenience, comfort, and passenger safety did not show significant differences across the moderators, suggesting their universal importance across all demographics. Furthermore, geographical differences did not significantly impact the relationships within the model, suggesting consistent relationships across different regions. The findings highlight the need to move beyond a “one size fits all” approach, demonstrating that tailored strategies may be crucial for enhancing the adoption and satisfaction of PR services among various demographic groups. The analyses provide valuable insight for policymakers and rideshare companies looking to optimize their services and increase user engagement in PR.

moderator↗
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Relationships Between Flight Crew Demographics and Perceptions of Interval Management

The Interval Management Alternative Clearances (IMAC) human-in-the-loop simulation experiment was conducted to assess interval management system performance and participants' acceptability and workload while performing three interval management clearance types. Twenty-four subject pilots and eight subject controllers flew ten high-density arrival scenarios into Denver International Airport during two weeks of data collection. This analysis examined the possible relationships between subject pilot demographics on reported perceptions of interval management in IMAC. Multiple linear regression models were created with a new software tool to predict subject pilot questionnaire item responses from demographic information. General patterns were noted across models that may indicate flight crew demographics influence perceptions of interval management.

Remy, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2022

Modeling Demographic-Driven Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Biogeochemical Cycling in NASA GISS’s Earth System Model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)

We developed a demographic vegetation model, BiomeE, to improve the modeling of vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies' ModelE Earth system model. This model includes the processes of plant growth, mortality, reproduction, vegetation structural dynamics, and soil carbon and nitrogen storage and transformations. The model combines the plant physiological processes of ModelE's original vegetation model, Ent, with the plant demographic and ecosystem nitrogen processes that have been represented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's LM3-PPA. We used nine plant functional types to represent global natural vegetation functional diversity, including trees, shrubs, and grasses, and a new phenology model to simulate vegetation seasonal changes with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Competition for light and soil resources is individual based, which makes the modeling of transient compositional dynamics and vegetation succession possible. Overall, the BiomeE model simulates, with fidelity comparable to other models, the dynamics of vegetation and soil biogeochemistry, including leaf area index, vegetation structure (e.g., height, tree density, size distribution, and crown organization), and ecosystem carbon and nitrogen storage and fluxes. This model allows ModelE to simulate transient and long-term biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the climate system and land ecosystems. Furthermore, BiomeE also allows for the eco-evolutionary modeling of community assemblage in response to past and future climate changes with its individual-based competition and demographic processes.

Biogeochemical cycles↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Impact of Demographic Lifecycle States on Time to Vehicle Purchase: Insights from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

This study examines the impact of demographic lifecycle stages on the timing of vehicle purchases, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2021. Survival analysis was employed to model the duration until households purchase vehicles, incorporating key lifecycle variables such as age, employment status, marital status, childbirth, home ownership, and the presence of school-going children. The life table results indicate that early adulthood (ages 20–35) is the prime period for vehicle acquisition, with significant peaks around ages 25 to 30. Additionally, the instantaneous hazard of purchasing a vehicle is highest in the late 40s and early 50s. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, employment, marital status, and home ownership significantly increase the likelihood of purchasing a vehicle, while living in multi-unit dwellings decreases it. Interaction effects reveal that married individuals with employed spouses are substantially more likely to purchase vehicles. In conclusion, this study serves as a steppingstone toward integrating demographic lifecycle analysis into car ownership modeling that better reflects real-world scenarios and increases the accuracy of policy and strategic planning.

Car ownership↗