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Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Review

A model for plant lighting system selection

A decision model is presented that compares lighting systems for a plant growth scenario and chooses the most appropriate system from a given set of possible choices. The model utilizes a Multiple Attribute Utility Theory approach, and incorporates expert input and performance simulations to calculate a utility value for each lighting system being considered. The system with the highest utility is deemed the most appropriate system. The model was applied to a greenhouse scenario, and analyses were conducted to test the model's output for validity. Parameter variation indicates that the model performed as expected. Analysis of model output indicates that differences in utility among the candidate lighting systems were sufficiently large to give confidence that the model's order of selection was valid.

NASA Center KSC

Smart medical systems with application to nutrition and fitness in space

Smart medical systems are being developed to allow medical treatments to address alterations in chemical and physiologic status in real time. In a smart medical system, sensor arrays assess subject status, which is interpreted by computer processors that analyze multiple inputs and recommend treatment interventions. The response of the subject to the treatment is again assessed by the sensor arrays, thus closing the loop. An early form of "smart medicine" has been practiced in space to assess nutrition. Nutrient levels are assessed with food frequency questionnaires, which are interpreted by flight surgeons to recommend inflight alterations in diet. In the future, sensor arrays will directly probe body chemistry. Near-infrared spectroscopy can be used to non-invasively measure several blood and tissue parameters that are important in the assessment of nutrition and fitness. In particular, this technology can be used to measure blood hematocrit and interstitial fluid pH. The non-invasive measurement of interstitial pH is discussed as a surrogate for blood lactate measurement for the development and real-time assessment of exercise protocols in space. Earth-based application of these sensors is also described.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies

An expert system for fault management assistance on a space sleep experiment

The expert system, Principal Investigator-in-a-box, or [PI], was designed to assist astronauts or other operators in performing experiments outside their expertise. Currently, the software helps astronauts calibrate instruments for a Sleep and Respiration Experiment without contact with the investigator on the ground. It flew on the Space Shuttle missions STS-90 and STS-95. [PI] displays electrophysiological signals in real time, alerts astronauts via the indicator lights when a poor signal quality is detected, and advises astronauts how to restore good signal quality. Thirty subjects received training on the sleep instrumentation and the [PI] interface. A beneficial effects of [PI] and training reduced troubleshooting time. [PI] benefited subjects on the most difficult scenarios, even though its lights were not 100% accurate. Further, questionnaires showed that most subjects preferred monitoring waveforms with [PI] assistance rather than monitoring waveforms alone. This study addresses problems of complex troubleshooting and the extended time between training and execution that is common to many human operator situations on earth such as in power plant operation, and marine exploration.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience

Dynamic control of photosynthetic photon flux for lettuce production in CELSS

A new dynamic control of photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) was tested using lettuce canopies growing in the Minitron II plant-growth/canopy gas-exchange system. Canopy photosynthetic rates (Pn) were measured in real time and fedback for further environment control. Pn can be manipulated by changing PPF, which is a good environmental parameter for dynamic control of crop production in a Controlled Ecological Life-Support Systems CELSS. Decision making that combines empirical mathematical models with rule sets developed from recent experimental data was tested. With comparable yield indices and potential for energy savings, dynamic control strategies will contribute greatly to the sustainability of space-deployed CELSS.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems

The Potential of AI Techniques for Remote Sensing

The current status of artificial intelligence AI technology is discussed along with imagery data management, database interrogation, and decision making. Techniques adapted from the field of artificial intelligence (AI) have significant, wide ranging impacts upon computer-assisted remote sensing analysis. AI based techniques offer a powerful and fundamentally different approach to many remote sensing tasks. In addition to computer assisted analysis, AI techniques can also aid onboard spacecraft data processing and analysis and database access and query.

J E Estes

A Landsat-based inventory procedure for agriculture in California

Agriculture, which occupies a vital position in the economy of the State of California, depends crucially on the available water. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) is, therefore, greatly concerned with the total water requirements for agricultural applications. In view of the limitations of an area-limited, single-date survey system, the DWR has been cooperating with NASA and the University of California in a study of the applicability of Landsat imagery and digital data as an aid in making decisions concerning the management of water resources. Attention is given to a statewide inventory of irrigated land, computer-assisted estimation and mapping of irrigated land, and a crop type analysis using Landsat digital data.

Wall, S. L.

A computer assisted teleoperator control station with tactile feedback

A computer-assisted teleoperator control system for making comparative performance evaluations is described. A local and a remote control station, each with decision-making capability, communicate with each other through a simulated time delay. Supervisory control at three increasingly automatic levels is possible. The highest level of programmed control is facilitated through the ARM language which was developed to permit easily readable program manuscripts to be written and assembled into programs of motions by novice programmers. Experimental results show the advantage of this form of supervisory control with both direct and delayed (3 sec) manipulation tasks. In addition, two systems to measure and reproduce force distributions have been designed. One system reproduces contact on the external surfaces of the remote hand using 21 airjet simulators. Another system reproduces the shape of the contact between object and jaws using 288 piezoelectric (bimorph) stimulators.

Hill, J. W.

Diagnostic instrumentation aboard ISS: just-in-time training for non-physician crewmembers

INTRODUCTION: The performance of complex tasks on the International Space Station (ISS) requires significant preflight crew training commitments and frequent skill and knowledge refreshment. This report documents a recently developed "just-in-time" training methodology, which integrates preflight hardware familiarization and procedure training with an on-orbit CD-ROM-based skill enhancement. This "just-in-time" concept was used to support real-time remote expert guidance to complete ultrasound examinations using the ISS Human Research Facility (HRF). METHODS: An American and Russian ISS crewmember received 2 h of "hands on" ultrasound training 8 mo prior to the on-orbit ultrasound exam. A CD-ROM-based Onboard Proficiency Enhancement (OPE) interactive multimedia program consisting of memory enhancing tutorials, and skill testing exercises, was completed by the crewmember 6 d prior to the on-orbit ultrasound exam. The crewmember was then remotely guided through a thoracic, vascular, and echocardiographic examination by ultrasound imaging experts. RESULTS: Results of the CD-ROM-based OPE session were used to modify the instructions during a complete 35-min real-time thoracic, cardiac, and carotid/jugular ultrasound study. Following commands from the ground-based expert, the crewmember acquired all target views and images without difficulty. The anatomical content and fidelity of ultrasound video were adequate for clinical decision making. CONCLUSIONS: Complex ultrasound experiments with expert guidance were performed with high accuracy following limited preflight training and multimedia based in-flight review, despite a 2-s communication latency. In-flight application of multimedia proficiency enhancement software, coupled with real-time remote expert guidance, facilitates the successful performance of ultrasound examinations on orbit and may have additional terrestrial and space applications.

Inservice Training/methods

Real time simulation of computer-assisted sequencing of terminal area operations

A simulation was developed to investigate the utilization of computer assisted decision making for the task of sequencing and scheduling aircraft in a high density terminal area. The simulation incorporates a decision methodology termed Constrained Position Shifting. This methodology accounts for aircraft velocity profiles, routes, and weight classes in dynamically sequencing and scheduling arriving aircraft. A sample demonstration of Constrained Position Shifting is presented where six aircraft types (including both light and heavy aircraft) are sequenced to land at Denver's Stapleton International Airport. A graphical display is utilized and Constrained Position Shifting with a maximum shift of four positions (rearward or forward) is compared to first come, first serve with respect to arrival at the runway. The implementation of computer assisted sequencing and scheduling methodologies is investigated. A time based control concept will be required and design considerations for such a system are discussed.

Dear, R. G.

Of red planets and indigo computers: Mars database visualization as an example of platform downsizing

The last decade has witnessed tremendous advancements in the computer hardware and software used to perform scientific visualization. In this paper, we consider how the visualization of a particular data set, the digital terrain model derived from the Viking orbiter imagery, has been realized in four distinct projects over this period. These examples serve to demonstrate how the vast improvements in computational performance both decrease the cost of such visualization efforts and permit an increasing level of interactivity. We then consider how even today's graphical systems require the visualization designer to make intelligent choices and tradeoffs in database rendering. Finally, we discuss how insights gleaned from an understanding of human visual perception can guide these design decisions, and suggest new options for visualization hardware and software.

NASA Center ARC

Determining flexor-tendon repair techniques via soft computing

An SC-based multi-objective decision-making method for determining the optimal flexor-tendon repair technique from experimental and clinical survey data, and with variable circumstances, was presented. Results were compared with those from the Taguchi method. Using the Taguchi method results in the need to perform ad-hoc decisions when the outcomes for individual objectives are contradictory to a particular preference or circumstance, whereas the SC-based multi-objective technique provides a rigorous straightforward computational process in which changing preferences and importance of differing objectives are easily accommodated. Also, adding more objectives is straightforward and easily accomplished. The use of fuzzy-set representations of information categories provides insight into their performance throughout the range of their universe of discourse. The ability of the technique to provide a "best" medical decision given a particular physician, hospital, patient, situation, and other criteria was also demonstrated.

Therapy, Computer-Assisted/methods