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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-based filtered dissipation rate modelling for multi-modal turbulent combustion: evaluating a priori model generalizability

Manifold-based models offer a computationally efficient alternative to directly transporting the thermochemical state in computational simulations of turbulent reacting flows, projecting the high-dimensional thermochemical state-space onto a low-dimensional manifold. Recent efforts have yielded a manifold-based model applicable to multi-modal combustion, enabling reconstruction of the thermochemical state from solutions to two-dimensional manifold equations in mixture fraction and generalized progress variable that are parameterised by three scalar dissipation rates. In coarse-grained simulations such as Large Eddy Simulation (LES), closure of the multi-modal manifold equations and subfilter variances/covariance requires closure of three filtered scalar dissipation rates. Here, the present work adopts a data-based approach, providing closure for the three filtered scalar dissipation rates via deep neural networks (DNNs). High-fidelity datasets corresponding to an autoigniting n-dodecane jet flame and a bluff body swirl-stabilized confined lifted spray flame of two aviation fuels (Jet-A and C1) with different ignition propensities are leveraged to generate training data that spans a diverse range of thermodynamic conditions and combustion modes, including low- and high-temperature ignition regimes in addition to premixed and nonpremixed behaviour. A final DNN model is trained to enforce inherent physical constraints by learning nonlinear functional transformations of the three filtered scalar dissipation rates. The generalizability of this constrained DNN model is demonstrated a priori via conditional statistics evaluated on the lifted spray flame with C1–a configuration that had not been included in the training data. Excellent DNN agreement with conditional DNS statistics is observed, and integrated gradients are computed to identify the most sensitive input variables. The similarity of the marginal PDFs of the most informative input variables and outputs across configurations are quantified via the Wasserstein metric, demonstrating that data-based models may successfully generalize to unseen parametric conditions so long as the most informative input variables share similar distributions across training and testing datasets.

Data-based modelling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of Scrap Melting Using an Electric Arc in Steel Manufacturing

Steel industry is crucial to the national economy and security. Around 67% of crude steel in the U.S is produced in electric arc furnaces (EAF), which is energy intensive. Around 140 EAFs operate in the U.S., consuming about 8.6x10 7 MMBtu/year of electricity. One of major challenges for EAFs includes maximizing the efficiency of the electrical energy provided in the form of electric arcs to melt various scrap mixes. To address this issue, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methodology is chosen to analyze scrap melting using the electric arc. Due to complex furnace phenomena and the wide variety of potential scenarios, high performance computing (HPC) is essential to yield comprehensive and detailed CFD analyses and systematic parametric studies for optimized EAF operation. The objectives are to 1) simulate scrap melting using electric arc, 2) evaluate electrode/arc position for optimum scrap melting and 3) establish reduced order model for CFD data-base for fast model calculation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of Silicon Content in a Blast Furnace via Machine Learning: A Comprehensive Processing and Modeling Pipeline

Silicon content plays an important role in determining the operational efficiency of blast furnaces (BFs) and their downstream processes in integrated steelmaking; however, existing sampling methods and first-principles models are somewhat limited in their capability and flexibility. Current data-based prediction models primarily rely on a limited set of manually selected furnace parameters. Additionally, different BFs present a diverse set of operating parameters and state variables that are known to directly influence the hot metal’s silicon content, such as fuel injection, blast temperature, and raw material charge composition, among other process variables that have their own impacts. The expansiveness of the parameter set adds complexity to parameter selection and processing. This highlights the need for a comprehensive methodology to integrate and select from all relevant parameters for accurate silicon content prediction. Providing accurate silicon content predictions would enable operators to adjust furnace conditions dynamically, improving safety and reducing economic risk. To address these issues, a two-stage approach is proposed. First, a generalized data processing scheme is proposed to accommodate diverse furnace parameters. Second, a robust modeling pipeline is used to establish a machine learning (ML) model capable of predicting hot metal silicon content with reasonable accuracy. The method employed herein predicted the average Si content of the upcoming furnace cast with an accuracy of 91% among 200 target predictions for a specific furnace provisioned by the XGBoost model. This prediction is achieved using only the past shift’s operating conditions, which should be available in real time. This performance provides a strong baseline for the modeling approach with potential for further improvement through provision of real-time features.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

CLPNets: Coupled Lie–Poisson neural networks for multi-part Hamiltonian systems with symmetries

To accurately compute data-based prediction of Hamiltonian systems, it is essential to utilize methods that preserve the structure of the equations over time. We consider a particularly challenging case of systems with interacting parts that do not reduce to pure momentum evolution. Such systems are essential in scientific computations, such as discretization of a continuum elastic rod, which can be viewed as the group of rotations and translations $SE(3)$. The evolution involves not only the momenta but also the relative positions and orientations of the particles. The presence of Lie group-valued elements, such as relative positions and orientations, poses a problem for applying previously derived methods for data-based computing. We develop a novel method of data-based computation and complete phase space learning of such systems. We follow the original framework of SympNets (Jin et al., 2020) and LPNets (Eldred et al., 2024), building the neural network from phase space mappings that preserve the Lie–Poisson structure. We derive a novel system of mappings that are built into neural networks describing the evolution of such systems. We call such networks Coupled Lie–Poisson Neural Networks, or CLPNets. We consider increasingly complex examples for the applications of CLPNets, starting with the rotation of two rigid bodies about a common axis, progressing to the free rotation of two rigid bodies, and finally to the evolution of two connected and interacting $SE(3)$ components, describing the discretization of an elastic rod into two elements. Our method preserves all Casimir invariants to machine precision, preserves energy to high accuracy, and shows good resistance to the curse of dimensionality, requiring only a few thousand data points for all cases studied (three to eighteen dimensions). Additionally, the method is highly economical in memory requirements, requiring only about 200 parameters for the most complex case considered.

Data-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Importance Sampling Model-Based Diffusion for Trajectory Optimization

Trajectory optimization for robotic systems remains a challenging problem. This is especially true for robotic systems featuring nonlinear dynamics and many degrees of freedom. Data-based or model-free diffusion has recently been popularized in the fields of artificial intelligence and trajectory optimization. Model-Based Diffusion provides a data-free method of trajectory optimization, trained at runtime on a system dynamics model, suitable for high-dimensional models. This paper examines how importance sampling can enhance the performance of Model-Based Diffusion for trajectory optimization. Here, we quantify the benefits of importance sampling across three long horizon planning tasks. These results show as much as a 13x improvement in sample efficiency depending on environment and optimization parameters.

Golembeski, Seth [Georgia Institute of Technology,↗
DOE OSTI2026

BatFIT (Battery Feature Inference Toolbox) [SWR-26-034]

This package implements several data-based techniques for parameter fitting in Li-ion battery models. It uses BATMODS-lite to generate the data . The repository contains the code that is used for the paper "Neural posterior estimation is accurate, tractable and scalable for inverse parameter inference in Li-ion batteries", M. Hassanaly, C. R. Randall, P. J. Weddle, P. J. Gasper, C. Kelly, T. R. Tanim, K. Smith.

Hassanaly, Malik [National Laboratory of the Rocki↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Past, Present and Future of Structural Health Monitoring: An Overview of Three Ages

This paper presents an overview of the discipline of structural health monitoring (SHM), organised in terms of three proposed ages. The first age is delineated by the prehistory of SHM and the period where nondestructing testing methods evolved into an organised set of principles built upon physics-based models; this age ended when the model-based approaches reached an impasse in terms of their ability to properly deal with real-world problems. The second age of SHM began with a transition to data-based methods based on statistical pattern recognition, which provided a holistic approach to SHM problems for the first time. This age arguably ended when the methods foundered in situations where the necessary training data were scarce. It is argued here that the third age began with the development of population-based SHM, which has been designed to overcome the problem of data scarcity. As there is very limited space in a single article to provide a comprehensive overview, an appendix has been provided here that gives a very systematic bibliography of SHM reviews—a meta-bibliography.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗