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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Phoenix Dust Storm (PHX-DUST) Scale: A Cooperatively Developed Dust Storm Scale for Phoenix, Arizona

Using extensive localized meteorological and air quality data for central Arizona from 2010 to 2023, we create a postevent dust storm scale for use by the primary stakeholders in central Arizona for the Phoenix metropolitan area called the Phoenix Dust Storm (PHX-DUST) scale. To ensure usability across a wide spectrum of users, a core concept was to “keep it simple.” The PHX-DUST scale is based on (i) maximum dust concentration for particulate matter (PM10) across the network in micrograms per cubic meter which determines category, e.g., “category 5 (the highest observed category)” and category 4; (ii) the number of network monitors achieving dust concentrations above a threshold of 500 μg m−3 (categorized as “widespread” or “isolated,” as measures of spatial extent); (iii) a duration parameter (which determines “long duration” or “short duration”); and (iv) a measure of wind speed over the affected area (maximum wind gust recorded over the network, which may not be the maximum wind of the storm). Using this index for the 189 dust storms impacting the Phoenix metropolitan area for the period 2010–23, the most severe dust storm occurred on 5 July 2011 and is classified as a “Category 5, Widespread, Long-Duration High-Gust” event. This initial attempt at defining the PHX-DUST scale holds valuable applications for research, education, and applied analyses. It demonstrates that a consortium of interested groups can effectively work to create products benefiting the weather community and general public. Here, the PHX-DUST scale can also serve as a foundational framework for application in other regions where dust storms pose a threat to the well-being of populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dust-void evolution driven by turbulent dust flux can induce runaway migration of Earth-mass planets

Torques from asymmetric dust structures (so-called dust-void and filamentary structures) formed around low-mass planets embedded in a nonturbulent dust-gas disk can exceed the torques produced by the gas disk component and then go on to dominate the planet’s orbital dynamics. Here, we investigate how these structures (hence the dust torque) change when the effect of turbulent dust diffusion and dust feedback are included, along with the direct implications on the migration of Earth-like planets. Using the FARGO3D code, we performed 2D and 3D multifluid hydrodynamic simulations, focusing on a non-migrating planet with a mass of M p = 1.5 M ⊕ in 2D and on migrating planets with M p ∈ [1.5, 12] M ⊕ in 3D. We varied the δ-dimensionless diffusivity parameter in the range [0, 3 × 10 −3 ] and considered three different Stokes numbers, St = {0.04, 0.26, 0.55}, which are representative of the gas-dominated, the transitional, and the gravity-dominated regimes, respectively. In our 2D models, we find that turbulent diffusion of dust prevents the formation of the dust-void and filamentary structures when δ > 3 × 10 −4 . Otherwise, dust structures survive turbulent diffusion flow. However, dust and total torques become positive only in transitional and gravity-dominated regimes. In our 3D models, we find that the dust-void is drastically modified and the high-density ring-shaped barrier delineating the dust-void disappears if δ ≳ 10 −4 , due to the effect of dust turbulent diffusion along with the back-reaction of the dust. For all values of δ, the filament in front of the planet is replaced by a low-density trench. Remarkably, as we have allowed the planets to migrate, the evolving dust-void can drive either runaway migration or outward (inward) oscillatory-torque migration. Our study thus suggests that low-mass Earth-like planets can undergo runaway migration in dusty disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dust semi-direct effects: low-level cloud response to free-tropospheric dust-induced longwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean

Aerosol semi-direct effect is the adjustment of the radiative budget due to the cloud response to radiation absorption. Although dust accounts for about a third of aerosols' shortwave absorption, our understanding of its semi-direct effect often relies on traditional shortwave-focused mechanisms previously established for biomass-burning aerosols, and implications of dust longwave absorption on clouds have yet to be explored. Here, we assess the low-level cloud cover (LLCC) response to changes in properties and characteristics of the free-tropospheric dust layer over the North Atlantic Ocean (May–August, 2007–2017). We find that, consistent with previous studies, LLCC typically responds positively (increases in clouds) to an overlying dust layer. However, this response weakens with increasing dust optical depth (DOD), dust geometric thickness (DGT), and dust-layer base height (DBH). Specifically, we find that the LLCC response weakens by 4.3 ± 1.04 % and 1.6 ± 0.65 %, respectively, for a one-standard-deviation increase in DOD and DGT, and a smaller response to DBH (0.19 ± 0.45 %). We also find that the weakened LLCC response is primarily due to enhanced dust-induced longwave-dominated cloud-top warming, which counteracts the mean cloud-top cooling by as much as 19 % (mean of 9 %). Sensitivity analysis further indicates that the variability in dust properties, influenced by dust size distribution and refractive index, dominates the changes in dust-induced cloud-top warming, rather than variabilities in cloud properties or thermodynamic profiles. Our result adds to the traditional understanding of LLCC enhancement through shortwave-driven atmospheric stability, often associated with aerosol semi-direct effects, and highlights the role of dust-induced cloud-top longwave warming in dust semi-direct effects.

Pandey, Satyendra K. [Univ. of California, Merced,↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Enceladus dust plume based on in situ measurements performed with the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer

We analyzed data recorded by the Cosmic Dust Analyzer on board the Cassini spacecraft during Enceladus dust plume traversals. Our focus was on profiles of relative abundances of grains of different compositional types derived from mass spectra recorded with the Dust Analyzer subsystem during the Cassini flybys E5 and E17. The E5 profile, corresponding to a steep and fast traversal of the plume, has already been analyzed. In this paper, we included a second profile from the E17 flyby involving a nearly horizontal traversal of the south polar terrain at a significantly lower velocity. Additionally, we incorporated dust detection rates from the High Rate Detector subsystem during flybys E7 and E21. We derived grain size ranges in the different observational data sets and used these data to constrain parameters for a new dust plume model. This model was constructed using a mathematical description of dust ejection implemented in the software package DUDI. Further constraints included published velocities of gas ejection, positions of gas and dust jets, and the mass production rate of the plume. Our model employs two different types of sources: diffuse sources of dust ejected with a lower velocity and jets with a faster and more colimated emission. From our model, we derived dust mass production rates for different compositional grain types, amounting to at least 28 kg s –1 . Previously, salt-rich dust was believed to dominate the plume mass based on E5 data alone. The E17 profile shows a dominance of organic-enriched grains over the south polar terrain, a region not well constrained by E5 data. By including both E5 and E17 profiles, we find the salt-rich dust contribution to be at most 1% by mass. This revision also results from an improved understanding of grain masses of various compositional types that implies smaller sizes for salt-rich grains. Our new model can predict grain numbers and masses for future mission detectors during plume traversals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Dust Production, Growth, and Destruction in Reionization-era Galaxies with the CROC Simulations. II. Predicting the Dust Content of High-redshift Galaxies

Abstract We model the interstellar dust content of the reionization era with a suite of cosmological, fluid-dynamical simulations of galaxies with stellar masses ranging from ∼10 5 to 10 9 M ⊙ in the first 1.2 Gyr of the Universe. We use a post-processing method that accounts for dust creation and destruction processes, allowing us to systematically vary the parameters of these processes to test whether dust-dependent observable quantities of galaxies at these epochs could be useful for placing constraints on dust physics. We then forward model observable properties of these galaxies to compare to existing data. We find that we are unable to simultaneously match existing observational constraints with any one set of model parameters. Specifically, the models that predict the largest dust masses D / Z ≳ 0.1 at z = 5—because of high assumed production yields and/or efficient growth via accretion in the interstellar medium—are preferred by constraints on total dust mass and infrared (IR) luminosities, but these models produce far too much attenuation in the ultraviolet (UV), preventing them from matching observations of β UV . To investigate this discrepancy, we analyze the relative spatial distribution of stars and dust as probed by IR and UV emission, which appear to exhibit overly symmetric morphologies compared to existing data, likely due to the limitations of the stellar feedback model used in the simulations. Our results indicate that the observable properties of the dust distribution in high redshift galaxies are a particularly strong test of stellar feedback.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2025

African dust transported to Barbados in the wintertime lacks indicators of chemical aging

The chemical processing (“aging”) of mineral dust is thought to increase dust light-scattering efficiency, cloud droplet activation, and nutrient solubility. However, the extent of African dust aging during long-range transport to the western Atlantic is poorly understood. Here, we explore African dust aging in wintertime samples collected from Barbados when dust is transported at lower altitudes. Ion chromatography (IC) analysis indicates that the mass concentrations of bulk nitrate, sulfate, and oxalate increase, relative to background conditions, when African dust reaches Barbados after transatlantic transport, indicating dust aging. However, aerosol mixing-state analysis from computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (CCSEM/EDX) indicates that approximately 67 % of dust particles are internally mixed with sea salt, while only about 26 % of dust particles contain no internally mixed components. SEM/EDX elemental mapping and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS) reveals that within internally mixed dust and sea salt particles, only sea salt components contain signs of aging as indicated by the loss of chloride and acquisition of nitrate and/or sulfate. Our results suggest that chemical aging may only modestly increase the solubility of nutrients in African dust during long-range transport. Because most dust that we measured was internally mixed with sea salt, chemical aging is not necessarily required to increase the hygroscopicity of dust, at least in the lower boundary layer. Further, our findings have implications for understanding the release of halogens from sea salts, which may be enhanced in internally mixed dust and sea salt particles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interacting dust grains in complex plasmas: Ion wake formation and the electric potential

Dust grains have been used as minimally invasive probes to determine plasma parameters including the plasma density, temperature, and electric field in a plasma discharge. However, the dust grains in a plasma generate local potential disturbances due to the collection of charge and the subsequent electrostatic interactions between the dust and charged plasma particles. Dust grains in close proximity to one another exhibit interesting non-reciprocal interactions and self-organize into structures such as one-dimensional filamentary chains, two-dimensional “zigzags,” and three-dimensional helices, among others. The formation of these structures suggests that although the dust grains may be less invasive than traditional plasma probes, the disturbance to the local plasma environment introduced by dust grains is non-trivial. Commonly used analytic forms of the electric potential describing complex plasmas have failed to resolve the near-dust region, and as a result are insufficient to provide insight about the formation of complex dust structures. Here, we use an N-body simulation to compute the electric potential from ion densities near various dust grain configurations. We provide an alternative description to the standard analytic model for the electric potential of dust and ion wakes based on a Gaussian shaped cloud of ions. The electric potential obtained from simulations is used to identify minimum energy configurations for two and three dust grains. It is further demonstrated that the minimum potential region identified for N dust grains and their associated ion wakes does not predict the minimum-energy configuration of N + 1 dust grains.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote-sensing detectability of airborne Arctic dust

Remote-sensing (RS)-based estimates of Arctic dust are oftentimes overestimated due to a failure in separating out the dust contribution from that of spatially homogeneous clouds or low-altitude cloud-like plumes. A variety of illustrations are given with a particular emphasis on questionable claims of using brightness temperature differences (BTDs) as a signature indicator of Arctic dust transported from mid-latitude deserts or generated by local Arctic sources. While there is little dispute about the presence of both Asian and local dust across the Arctic, the direct RS detectability of airborne dust, as ascribed to satellite (MODIS and AVHRR) measurements of significantly negative brightness temperature differences at 11 and 12 µm (BTD 11–12 ), has been misrepresented in certain cases. While it is difficult to account for all examples of strongly negative BTD 11–12 values in the Arctic, it is unlikely that airborne dust plays a significant role. One much more likely contributor would be water clouds in the Arctic inversion layer. The RS detectability of the impact of Arctic dust (notably due to Arctic dust from local sources) can, however, be of significance. Sustained dust deposition can substantially decrease (visible to shortwave IR) snow and ice reflectance albedo (pan-chromatic reflectance) and the signal measured by satellite sensors. Significantly negative BTD 11–12 values would, however, only represent a limited area near the drainage basin sources according to our event-level case studies. The enhanced ice-nucleating particle (INP) role of local Arctic dust can, for example, induce significant changes in the properties of low-level mixed-phase clouds (cloud optical depth changes <~ 1) that can readily be detected by active and passive RS instruments. It is critical that the distinction between the RS detectability of airborne Arctic dust versus the RS detectability of the impacts of that dust be understood if we are to appropriately parameterize, for example, the radiative forcing influence of dust in this climate-sensitive region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Anthropogenic Dust From Agricultural Sources in E3SMv1: Implementation, Evaluation, and Assessment of the Radiative Forcing

Dust emissions related to anthropogenic activities (i.e., anthropogenic dust) is not represented in most global climate models and its radiative impact remains unassessed. In this study, we develop a new and physically based method to parameterize anthropogenic dust emission from agricultural sources (i.e., agricultural dust, or AD) based on the DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). This method relates AD emission to the crop land use fraction in the E3SMv1 land component. Major AD sources simulated by our parameterization include those over Central America, the Sahel, North India, and North China. The annual averaged AD emission with diameter less than 10 μm is 567 Tg yr −1 in present-day (year 2000), which contributes to 13.3% of total dust emission. Model evaluation against satellite and ground-based observations shows that the new parameterization can represent AD emissions and global dust cycle reasonably well. We find that the total dust emission increases by 13.1% (495 Tg yr −1 ) from 1850 to 2000 due to the cropland land use fraction changes without considering the impact from climate changes. This induces a net dust direct effective radiative forcing of −0.041 W m −2 at top of the atmosphere. This dust-induced cooling exceeds 10% of the total anthropogenic aerosol direct effective radiative forcing from 1750 to 2014 estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Our findings indicate an important role of anthropogenic dust in global climate change, which should be included in future climate change assessments.

agricultural dust↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dust Direct Radiative Effect Including Large Particles and Component Minerals

The direct radiative effect (DRE) of dust aerosols in Earth system models (ESMs) remains highly uncertain, largely due to inadequate representations of particle size distribution (PSD) and mineral composition. Using NASA's Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) soil mineralogy data and observed PSD in an ESM that resolves dust mineral composition and emitted diameters from 0.1 to 70 μm, we find a near-neutral global dust net DRE (−0.057 W m −2 ), weaker than most previous estimates. Large dust (diameter >10 μm) contributes 30% of the global longwave dust optical depth, providing observational constraints on large-particle abundance, and offsets 20% of the dust shortwave cooling over major source regions. Incorporation of EMIT mineralogy reduces shortwave uncertainty by more than 50%. The remaining uncertainty mainly exists in processes controlling dust abundance, particularly the poorly understood transport of large dust, and longwave optical properties, which require additional observational constraints to more accurately quantify the dust DRE.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Dust Coagulation on Streaming Instability

Abstract Streaming instability (SI) in dust has long been thought to be a promising process in triggering planetesimal formation in the protoplanetary disks (PPDs). In this study, we present the first numerical investigation that models the SI in the vertically stratified disk together with the dust coagulation process. Our simulations reveal that, even with the initially small dust sizes, because dust coagulation promotes dust size growth, SI can eventually still be triggered. Specifically, dust coagulation, limited only by dust fragmentation, broadens the parameter boundaries obtained from previous SI studies using single dust species. We describe the various stages of dust dynamics along with their size evolution and explore the impact of different dust fragmentation velocities. Implications of these results for realistic PPDs are also discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

“Godzilla,” the Extreme African Dust Event of June 2020: Origins, Transport, and Impact on Air Quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin

In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.

Aerosols/particulates↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hypothesis on the dust-borne atmospheric transport of Coccidioides , causative fungal pathogen for coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever)

For many decades, the fungal pathogen (Coccidioides spp.) that causes coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) has been associated with dust exposure. However, the mechanism of atmospheric transport of arthroconidia has yet to be defined. As such, it is unclear whether the association between dust exposure and Coccidioides is coincidental or not: do soil-disturbing events simultaneously cause both free-floating Coccidioides conidia and dust particles (i.e., particulate matter) to become entrained in the atmosphere, or is Coccidioides attached to dust particles and they are jointly suspended? In this short article, we propose the dust-borne atmospheric transport hypothesis: Coccidioides conidia are transported in the atmosphere attached to dust particles, which protect the fungi from harsh environmental conditions like desiccation and UV exposure, allowing them to travel far while remaining viable in comparison to free-floating aerial transport. If true, the dust-borne atmospheric transport hypothesis provides a means for mechanistically modeling the transport and exposure risk of Coccidioides via atmospheric dispersion modeling and suggests health implications from simultaneous exposure to dust and a fungal pathogen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Deep, High-angular-resolution 3D Dust Map of the Southern Galactic Plane

We present a deep, high-angular-resolution 3D dust map of the southern Galactic plane over 239° < l < 6° and ∣ b∣ < 10° built on photometry from the DECaPS2 survey, in combination with photometry from VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea, the Two Micron All Sky Survey, and “Unofficial” Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and parallaxes from Gaia Data Release 3 where available. To construct the map, we first infer the distance, extinction, and stellar types of over 700 million stars using the brutus stellar inference framework with a set of theoretical MESA Isochrone and Stellar Tracks (MIST) stellar models. Our resultant 3D dust map has an angular resolution of 1′ , roughly an order of magnitude finer than existing 3D dust maps and comparable to the angular resolution of the Herschel 2D dust emission maps. We detect complexes at the range of distances associated with the Sagittarius-Carina and Scutum-Centaurus arms in the fourth quadrant, as well as more distant structures out to a maximum reliable distance of d ≈ 10 kpc from the Sun. The map is sensitive up to a maximum extinction of roughly A V ≈ 12 mag. We publicly release both the stellar catalog and the 3D dust map, the latter of which can easily be queried via the Python package dustmaps. When combined with the existing Bayestar19 3D dust map of the northern sky, the DECaPS 3D dust map fills in the missing piece of the Galactic plane, enabling extinction corrections over the entire disk ∣b∣ < 10°. Our map serves as a pathfinder for the future of 3D dust mapping in the era of LSST and Roman, targeting regimes accessible with deep optical and near-infrared photometry but often inaccessible with Gaia.

Milky Way galaxy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dust and Ions: Self Organization and Stability (Final Report)

This project explores the stability and structure of systems with non-reciprocal interactions, challenging the traditional understanding based on Newton's third law, which states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Reciprocal forces are fundamental to the stability of systems ranging in size from atomic nuclei to galactic clusters. Our research investigates what happens when the forces between two objects are not equal and opposite. We used dusty plasmas as a model system to study non-reciprocal interactions. In a plasma chamber, micron-sized dust particles acquire a negative charge and form 2D planar "dust crystals" when levitated by the electric field present in the plasma sheath at the interface between the plasma and the lower surface of the chamber. This electric field also drives a vertical ion flow, creating a positively charged "plasma wake" downstream of the dust grains. While horizontally aligned dust grains interact reciprocally, a slight vertical displacement causes non-reciprocal interactions due to the attraction of the lower dust grain to the upper dust grain’s ion wake. Our experiments investigated the range of plasma conditions (gas pressure and system power) where stable dusty plasma structures are able to self-organize, aided by the ion wake. We studied systems ranging from pairs of dust particles to large 2D crystals, providing insights into the conditions that lead to stable or unstable structures. We used numerical simulations to investigate how ion wakes changed in response to changes in the operating conditions as well as how the wakes of separate grains interact when dust grains are in close proximity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

exoALMA. XI. ALMA Observations and Hydrodynamic Models of LkCa 15: Implications for Planetary Mass Companions in the Dust Continuum Cavity

In the past decade, the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) has revealed a plethora of substructures in the disks surrounding young stars. These substructures have several proposed formation mechanisms, with one leading theory being the interaction between the disk and newly formed planets. In this Letter, we present high angular resolution ALMA observations of LkCa 15’s disk that reveal a striking difference in dust and CO emission morphology. The dust continuum emission shows a ringlike structure characterized by a dust-depleted inner region of ~40 au in radius. Conversely, the CO emission is radially smoother and shows no sign of gas depletion within the dust cavity. We compare the observations with models for the disk–planet interaction, including radiative transfer calculation in the dust and CO emission. This source is particularly interesting, as the presence of massive planets within the dust cavity has been suggested based on previous near-IR observations. We find that the level of CO emission observed within the dust cavity is inconsistent with the presence of planets more massive than Jupiter orbiting between 10 and 40 au. Instead, we argue that the LkCa 15 innermost dust cavity might be created either by a chain of low-mass planets or by other processes that do not require the presence of planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗