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At least 19 records

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production

A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) Framework: Synthesis, Foundational Overview, and Expert Case Studies

Land resources are central to understanding the relationship between humans and their environment. We broadly define a land resource to include all the ecological resources of climate, water, soil, landforms, flora, and fauna, and all the socioeconomic systems that interact with agriculture, forestry, and other land uses within some system boundary. Understanding the vulnerability of land resources to changes in land management or climate forcing is critical to developing sustainable land management strategies. Vulnerability assessments are complex given the multiple uses of the assessments, the multi-disciplinary nature of the problem, limited understanding, the dynamic structure of vulnerability, scale issues, and problems with identifying effective vulnerability indicators. Here, we propose a novel conceptual framework for vulnerability assessments of land resources that combines the driver– pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) framework adopted by the European Environment Agency to describe interactions between society and the environment, and the exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity (ESA) framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess impacts of climate change. The DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) framework operationalizes the process of assessing the vulnerability of a target system to external stressors. The DEVA framework includes the following elements: 1) Definition of the target system (Land resource), 2) Description of internal characteristics of the target system (State), 3) Description of target system vulnerability indicators (Adaptive capacity, Sensitivity), 4) Description of stressor characteristics (Drivers, Pressures), 5) Description of stressor vulnerability indicators (Exposure), 6) Description of target system response to stressors (Impacts), and 7) Description of modifications to target systems or stressors (Responses). In stating that they have “applied the DEVA framework”, analysts acknowledge that they have (a) considered the full breadth of each DEVA element, (b) have made conscious decisions to limit the scope and complexity of certain elements, and (c) can communicate both the rationale for these decisions and the impact of these decisions on the vulnerability assessment results and recommendations. The DEVA framework was refined during invited presentations and follow-up discussions from a series of Special Sessions with leading experts at two successive ASABE Annual International Meetings. Six case studies drawn from the sessions elaborate upon the DEVA framework and provide concrete examples of the key concepts. The DEVA approach gives engineers, planners, and analysts a new, flexible framework to apply a broad array of useful tools toward assessment of land resource system vulnerability.

Anandhi, Aauvadi↗

Transactive Energy Systems: The Market-based Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources

This paper synthesizes a unifying framework that captures a large class of transactive energy systems studied in the literature. The framework consists of four key elements: agent preferences, control decisions, information structure, and solution concept. Among them, agent preference specifies the preferred outcome by each agent and models the conflict of interest in decision making. Control decision specifies the set of decisions for each agent to maximize its payoff. Information structure describes the information available to each agent before it makes a decision. Solution concept encodes the rationality assumptions of each agent in the system. These elements are important in identifying and distinguishing different transactive energy systems. In this paper, we use them to analyze a number of important ones, including the competitive equilibrium, Stackelberg game, reverse Stackelberg game, and mechanism design. Each class of these problems is formulated as a special case of the proposed transactive energy systems. Their connections and differences are discussed. Available tools and results for each category of problems are surveyed.

Li, Sen↗

Integration of Control Methods and Digital Twins for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Advanced nuclear reactors offer a new set of features to energy generation, due to their ability to adapt to variable energy demand, operate autonomously, be deployed in rural locations and monitored remotely, afford compact size and lower power ratings, and rely on novel technologies to achieve safer operations. Thus, a requirement for the success of these reactors is the use of intelligent forms of control to track changing power demands, make autonomous decisions, and reduce the need for human involvement. Regulatory requirements pertaining to control of nuclear reactors could be met via historical means of control; however, these are not expected to enable the level of highly autonomous operations desired in advanced nuclear reactors. Historical control methods rely on both logical and high-performance (HP) control. These two types of control are usually used separately, with a human element being introduced whenever decisions are cascaded from one science to another. AI/ML control, on the other hand, can replace the human element in the current U.S. fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) by acting as a supervisory optimizer that understands the plant internal/external variables in order to make control decisions, and can easily handle non-linear and multi-input/multi out (MIMO) decisions—another requirement for advanced nuclear reactors that could be difficult to handle via logical and HP control. Because of the harsh operating environments produced in advanced reactors, resulting in the frequent failure of sensors and other types of equipment, and considering the lack of operating history for advanced nuclear reactors, control of advanced nuclear reactors would necessitate relying on a model that can track and adapt to the actual process (i.e., a digital twin). This digital twin can make approximations when knowledge and data are unavailable and would evolve as more knowledge is gained. The reactor control must also be risk-informed to account for the high-consequence nature of advanced reactors. This report introduces a high-level (i.e., not method- or process-specific) integration of the three different control and digital twinning methods able to meet the requirements for advanced nuclear reactors. These methods could be applied during both the operational and design stages of these reactors. The aim is to demonstrate how each method interfaces with and highlights enabling solutions necessitated by the unique features of advanced nuclear reactors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Comprehensive Material Characterization and Simultaneous Model Calibration for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations is a credible material model. Our ultimate vision is to interlace material characterization and model calibration in a real-time feedback loop, where the current model calibration results will drive the experiment to load regimes that add the most useful information to reduce parameter uncertainty. The current work investigated one key step to this Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) paradigm, using a finite load-path tree to incorporate history/path dependency of nonlinear material models into a network of surrogate models that replace computationally-expensive finite-element analyses. Our reference simulation was an elastoplastic material point subject to biaxial deformation with a Hill anisotropic yield criterion. Training data was generated using either a space-filling or adaptive sampling method, and surrogates were built using either Gaussian process or polynomial chaos expansion methods. Surrogate error was evaluated to be on the order of 10 ⁻5 and 10 ⁻3 percent for the space-filling and adaptive sampling training data, respectively. Direct Bayesian inference was performed with the surrogate network and with the reference material point simulator, and results agreed to within 3 significant figures for the mean parameter values, with a reduction in computational cost over 5 orders of magnitude. These results bought down risk regarding the surrogate network and facilitated a successful FY22-24 full LDRD proposal to research and develop the complete ICC paradigm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Building and Executing Aggressive Research Plans in a Large National Laboratory Consortium: Insights from the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines Initiative

This report describes lessons learned in the establishment, execution and termination of a large, multi-institutional consortium, derived from the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines experience. The decision to form a consortium comes with benefits (in advancing challenging multidisciplinary research) and costs (in time and additional management funds). Once the decision is made, key elements to a strong start include establishing a shared vision and goals; engaging an experienced project manager early; instituting feedback and oversight mechanisms to ensure relevance, strong performance, and situational awareness. Once a consortium is up and running, DOE and leadership should strike the right balance between competition and collaboration; foster an environment that builds trust; and adjust the organizational structure as needed to maintain collaboration. Finally, DOE and the labs can plan effectively for a smooth transition as a consortium winds down. This report provides some additional lessons and details on these lessons that we hope future DOE and lab leaders will find useful as they contemplate standing up new consortia.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Decision-Making Framework to Evaluate Opportunities for Recovery of Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals in Produced Water Networks

Oil and gas development activities require a significant amount of water. Given the environmental impacts associated with high consumption and subsequent disposal of this water, there is a need for strategies to support effective reuse of, treatment of, and/or resource recovery from this produced water. These streams can contain appreciable concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) and critical minerals (CM) (e.g., Lithium), which are critical for many important applications in electronics, technology, manufacturing, energy, and medicine [1]. Along with REE/CM present in produced water, other waste streams such as fly ash from coal-fired power plants and acid mine discharge present other potential sources for recovery of REE/CM [2-4]. And with increases in demand for REE/CM, the need for recovery from wastewater streams is becoming even more important. There is a need to develop effective decision-making tools to evaluate the economic and environmental potential for REE/CM recovery from produced water networks while supporting the needs of drilling and hydraulic fracturing activities. In this work, we present our progress in developing a decision-making framework to efficiently design and operate produced water networks for REE/CM recovery. Our approach considers REE/CM recovery from produced water streams alongside other potential wastewater sources. The models consider the location and capacity of storage and decentralized treatment processes as well as the design and operation of pipeline and transportation networks to connect different sources and effectively schedule inventories, reuse, and recovery opportunities. We focus on the evaluation of opportunities for REE/CM recovery with treatment constraints on composition and flow. We demonstrate this framework with an illustrative case study that features diverse production sites, storage facilities, transportation, and treatment sites. This proposed framework will be deployed in an open-source software package that is compatible with the PARETO framework to deliver analysis and decision-making tools that allow stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate potential opportunities for REE/CM recovery in produced water networks.

Pulsipher, Joshua↗

Typologies of actionable climate information and its use

Developing actionable climate information and integrating it into decision-making are two crucial elements for promoting effective societal responses to climate change. However, what constitutes actionable climate information, and how it is used, varies based on the actors, systems, and scales that are relevant to specific decisions. Yet, the terms ‘actionable climate information’ or ‘use of climate information’ are used abstractly. There is a lack of holistic understanding of the various types of information that can be deemed as usable by different users, and the different ways in which they may be used in decision-making. Typologies or generalizable categorizations can help both knowledge producers and users to better envision the entire landscape of climate information and its uses and can help to reduce the time and cost of actionable knowledge production. Through systematic coding and analysis of ~ 4 years of co-production engagements between climate scientists and resource managers, this paper presents empirically derived typologies of actionable climate information and its use, and explores whether certain uses are better informed by specific types of climate information. These typologies provide a valuable starting point for climate information producers, users, and boundary spanners working on climate-informed resource management, to reduce some of the time-intensive elements of the process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Significance of otolith calcium carbonate crystal structure diversity to microchemistry studies

Otoliths, calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) ear stones of fish, contain a wealth of information about fish life and environmental history yet the CaCO 3 polymorph form the otolith is made of is a critical, but seldom considered, piece of information during otolith analysis. Otolith trace element chemistry data increasingly informs management decisions, but recent work has shown that CaCO 3 polymorphs—aragonite, vaterite, and calcite—can bear on incorporation of trace elements in a non-trivial way. Most fishes are thought to have otoliths of the aragonite CaCO 3 form, but this construct is potentially outdated with many recent literature reports showing otherwise. Our study used previously unpublished neutron diffraction data and reports from published literature to address three objectives: (1) summarize the relative effects of otolith CaCO 3 polymorphism on otolith microchemistry, (2) summarize reports of otolith polymorphs to gain a better understanding of the extent of non-aragonite otoliths among fishes, (3) outline future research needed to align interpretations of microchemistry with our current understanding of otolith polymorph diversity. We found that while aragonite otoliths are the most common, so are exceptions. To illustrate, the ostensibly rare (among species) CaCO 3 form vaterite was reported in at least some otoliths of 40% of the species surveyed. Our work suggests that examination of the CaCO 3 polymorph composition of otoliths should become more common particularly in studies where results will or may be used to inform management decisions. Future research should work to attribute controls on otolith CaCO 3 polymorph expression using a combination of -omics and material characterization methods to enrich the life history and environmental information output from otoliths and increase our understanding of the assumptions made in otolith trace element chemistry studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Opportunities for an Integrated Web-Based Workbench for Data Access and Analysis - 20244

Management of environmental issues can require integration of multiple types of data and information, conducting data analysis and interpretation, and providing data visualization for effective communications. These data elements are important for site management to support regulator interactions and provide defensibility for remedial decisions. Databases and information repositories are core elements of managing data; however, efficient data access and analysis also enable effective site management. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site is an example of a complex site with a voluminous quantity of environmental data and a need for efficient site management. Different tiers of data and information tools have been developed and deployed to address site needs. These tools are configured for ready access via the web site interfaces and meet the rigorous quality requirements for environmental site management. Evolving efforts are focused on an integrated platform to meet site environmental management needs. In this platform, users can access site information at multiple levels of detail based on their need and permissions, so that data and associated analyses are presented within the context of the site mission and the user's management or technical needs. This concept is not only applicable at individual sites like Hanford but also applicable at other sites within the DOE complex. An integrated web-based architecture that links data visualization, data analytics, and management tools can provide holistic access to large data sets, minimize complexity, and maximize interactivity and technical communication. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Optimal carbon storage reservoir management through deep reinforcement learning

Model-based optimization plays a central role in energy system design and management. The complexity and high-dimensionality of many process-level models, especially those used for geosystem energy exploration and utilization, often lead to formidable computational costs when the dimension of decision space is also large. This work adopts elements of recently advanced deep learning techniques to solve a sequential decision-making problem in applied geosystem management. Specifically, a deep reinforcement learning framework was formed for optimal multiperiod planning, in which a deep Q-learning network (DQN) agent was trained to maximize rewards by learning from high-dimensional inputs and from exploitation of its past experiences. To expedite computation, deep multitask learning was used to approximate high-dimensional, multistate transition functions. Both DQN and deep multitask learning are pattern based. As a demonstration, the framework was applied to optimal carbon sequestration reservoir planning using two different types of management strategies: monitoring only and brine extraction. Both strategies are designed to mitigate potential risks due to pressure buildup. Results show that the DQN agent can identify the optimal policies to maximize the reward for given risk and cost constraints. Finally, experiments also show that knowledge the agent gained from interacting with one environment is largely preserved when deploying the same agent in other similar environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Determination of the Charge Materials Range in Multistage Charge Burden Optimization for Foundry Furnaces

Optimization of charge burden for foundry furnaces lies in determining a percentage or mass (kg, t) of the share of each charge material in the burden with the lowest unit cost. A classic task of charge burden optimization requires a definition of an objective function, which most often defines the cost of the charge burden and a system of constraints, including technological assumptions such as the balance of chemical elements for the required chemical composition of the charge or molten metal, limitations of the mass fraction of the individual elements of the charge, and others. The solution for such an optimization task is a set of starting values for the devices which weigh and proportion the charge materials for a foundry furnace. The consequences of deviations from proper values, causes by inaccurate weighing or proportioning and human error as well, can be limited by using an appropriately designed and implemented multistage optimization algorithm. This article presents a mathematical model of such an algorithm and discussion of its practical application. The algorithm as described below can be an important element of computer-aided decision to be made by employees in the process of batch compilation or automatically control devices dosing individual batch components. An IT system with an implemented algorithm may significantly increase the efficiency of charge preparation for a foundry furnace, guaranteeing its correct chemical composition despite batch materials dosing errors. It will contribute to a significant improvement of economic indicators of liquid metal production, with the effect of boosting the competitiveness of the foundry industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scalable hierarchical abnormality localization in cyber-physical systems

A cyber-physical system may have monitoring nodes that generate a series of current monitoring node values over time that represent current operation of the system. A hierarchical abnormality localization computer platform accesses a multi-level hierarchy of elements, and elements in a first level of the hierarchy are associated with elements in at least one lower level of the hierarchy and at least some elements may be associated with monitoring nodes. The computer platform may then determine, based on feature vectors and a decision boundary, an abnormality status for a first element in the highest level of the hierarchy. If the abnormality status indicates an abnormality, the computer platform may determine an abnormality status for elements, associated with the first element, in at least one level of the hierarchy lower than the level of the first element. These determinations may be repeated until an abnormality is localized to a monitoring node.

Abbaszadeh, Masoud↗

Time irreversibility as an indicator of approaching tipping points in Earth subsystems

With shifting environmental trends, many Earth system elements may be poised to undergo critical transitions or ‘tipping’. Reliable anticipation of these tipping elements is vital to inform policy decisions. Many of the current methods for tipping point detection are based on loss of resilience or ‘critical slowdown’ of the system as it approaches a tipping point. However, these methods are prone to false alarms; the detected slowdown may be an artifact of nonstationary noise unrelated to tipping behavior. Here, we explore the efficacy of early warning signs based on a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework. The model-free detection method relies on the increased intrinsic time-irreversibility due to detailed balance breaking, preceding the onset of tipping or instabilities. We demonstrate that these EWSs are effective for tipping point detection and robust against false alarms due to nonstationary noise, using idealized models for two key elements of the Earth system that are prone to tipping: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Arctic sea-ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recycling Rare Earth Elements From End-of-Life Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicle Motors

In this presentation, we first provide context on the increasing demand for rare earth elements and the current state of rare earth element mining worldwide. We then justify our decision to choose end-of-life electric and hybrid electric vehicles as a feedstock and propose a superstructure-based approach to finding the optimal pathways for recovering rare earth elements in their commercialized rare earth oxide form from them.

Laliwala, Chris↗

Nonlinear Interface Reduction for Time-Domain Analysis of Hurty/Craig-Bampton Superelements with Frictional Contact

Virtual prototyping in engineering design relies today on modern numerical models of contacting structures with accurate resolution of interface mechanics, which strongly affect the system-level stiffness and energy dissipation due to frictional losses. High-fidelity modeling within the localized interfaces is required to resolve local quantities of interest that may drive design decisions. The high-resolution finite element meshes necessary to resolve inter-component stresses tend to be computationally expensive, particularly when the analyst is interested in response time histories. The Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) transformation is a widely used method in structural dynamics for reducing the interior portion of a finite element model while having the ability to retain all nonlinear contact degrees of freedom (DOF) in physical coordinates. These models may still require many DOF to adequately resolve the kinematics of the interface, leading to inadequate reduction and computational savings. This study proposes a novel interface reduction method to overcome these challenges by means of system-level characteristic constraint (SCC) modes and properly orthogonal interface modal derivatives (POIMDs) for transient dynamic analyses. Both SCC modes and POIMDs are computed using the reduced HCB mass and stiffness matrices, which can be directly computed from many commercial finite element analysis software. Comparison of time history responses to an impulse-type load in a mechanical beam assembly indicate that the interface-reduced model correlates well with the HCB truth model. Localized features like slip and contact area are well-represented in the time domain when the beam assembly is loaded with a broadband excitation. The proposed method also yields reduced-order models with greater critical timestep lengths for explicit integration schemes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Visualization for Scientific Discovery, Decision-Making, and Communication

Visualization–the use of visual elements to explore data, form hypotheses, or convey conclusions–is an integral part of the scientific process. Starting from an initial exploration of new data to illustrating outcomes to the general public, visualization is one of the most intuitive and powerful modes of communication. With the explosion of new data sources and types, unprecedented volumes of data, and new technologies, such as virtual reality and AI, visualization has become increasingly essential but also ever more challenging. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) sponsored a Basic Research Needs workshop in January 2022 to understand the major opportunities and grand challenges in visualization tools and technologies for scientific computing, with a special focus on DOE-relevant applications and goals. The workshop identified five priority research directions (PRDs) for visualization to support scientific discovery, decision-making, and communication.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Report for the ASCR Workshop on Visualization for Scientific Discovery, Decision-Making, and Communication

Visualization—the use of visual elements to explore data, form hypotheses, or convey conclusions—is an integral part of the scientific process. Starting from an initial exploration of new data to illustrating outcomes for the general public, visualization is one of the most intuitive and powerful modes of communication. With the explosion of new data sources and types, unprecedented volumes of data, and new technologies, such as virtual reality (VR) and artificial intelligence (AI), visualization has become increasingly essential but also ever more challenging. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) sponsored a Basic Research Needs workshop in January 2022 to understand the major opportunities and grand challenges in visualization tools and technologies for scientific computing as well as for DOE-relevant applications and goals in general. The workshop identified five priority research directions (PRDs) for visualization to support scientific discovery, decision making, and communication. The first three PRDs describe interconnected research themes addressing the need for new techniques to deal with complex data, uncertainty, and interpretability (PRD 1); the need for scalable and interoperable software stacks (PRD 2); and the challenges and opportunities inherent in new technologies, such as VR, cloud, or exascale computing (PRD 3). The remaining two PRDs describe foundational research themes that recognize the potential of visualizations to provide equitable access to information and to strengthen the scientific discourse (PRD 4); and the need to consider human factors when designing visualizations (PRD 5). Collectively, these PRDs form the pillars for a coherent, long-term research and development strategy in Visualization for Scientific Discovery, Decision-Making, and Communication in the context of the Office of Science’s mission scope.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗