Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “DATA COVARIANCES”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear data covariances are critical input to determine upper sub-critical limits and to design experiments to increase it [Slides]

This presentation discusses how Upper Subcritical Limits (USL) are key parameters to determine operational limits in nuclear criticality safety evaluations. It also discusses an example of plutonium casting operation using tantalum at LANL PF-4. The Whisper tool at Los Alamos relies on many inputs, including covariance data, leading the presentation to ask if an existing benchmark data be used in Whisper to adjust nuclear data and covariances to justify a higher USL. If not, Whisper can be used to help design an optimal new benchmark experiment. The presentation also seeks to determine what the possible impacts are on USL and operational limits for plutonium casting. In conclusion, nuclear data covariances are used for by Whisper for: GSSL adjustment of nuclear data and covariances, identification of most similar existing benchmark experiments to application, simulation of Upper Subcritical Limit of application, and input to optimization techniques for designing most appropriate new benchmark experiment(s) to meet requirements. This requires a complete set of nuclear data covariances, benchmarks and k-effective sensitivity profiles (for both benchmarks and applications). The presentation concludes by asking if end users should trust results that depend on current covariance data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Whisper Use of Nuclear Data Covariances [Slides]

Whisper is statistical analysis code using sensitivity/uncertainty-based methods to determine baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) for nuclear criticality safety. Features of Whisper 1.1 include: GLLS method implemented to compute adjusted covariance based on current benchmark suite (1,100+ ICSBEP models), BLO “low-fidelity” covariance data used (44 energy groups), adjusted covariance is pre-computed and saved, and adjusted cross sections are NOT computed. Potential future efforts include: an extension to include angular distributions in benchmark selection and in GLLS adjustment, a move toward more modern covariance data (ENDF/B-VIII.0) and different group structure, and compute and store adjusted cross sections (trivial).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust inference of ecosystem soil water stress from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are invaluable for determining ecosystem water use strategies under soil water stress. However, existing stress inference methods require numerous subjective data processing and model specification assumptions whose effect on the inferred soil water stress signal is rarely quantified. These uncertainties may confound the stress inference and the generalization of ecosystem water use strategies across multiple sites and studies. In this research, we quantify the sensitivity of soil water stress signals inferred from eddy covariance data to the prevailing data and modeling assumptions (i.e., their robustness) to compile a comprehensive list of sites with robust soil water stress signals and assess the performance of current stress inference methods. To accomplish this, we identify the most prevalent assumptions from the literature and perform a digital factorial experiment to extract probability distributions of plausible soil water stress signals and model performance at 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET sites. Here, we develop a new framework that summarizes these probability distributions to classify and rank the robustness of each site’s soil water stress signal, which we display with a user-friendly heat map. We estimate that only 5%–36% of sites exhibit a robust soil water stress signal due to deficient model performance and poorly constrained ecosystem water use parameters. We also find that the lack of robustness is site-specific, which undermines grouping stress signals by broad ecosystem categories or comparing results across studies with differing assumptions. Lastly, existing stress inference methods appear better suited for eddy covariance sites with grass/annual vegetation. Our findings call for more careful and consistent inference of ecosystem water stress from eddy covariance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methodology for Generating Covariance Data of Thermal Neutron Scattering Cross Sections

This paper details and implements a framework for evaluating thermal neutron scattering cross sections that provide S(α,β) data and covariance data for hydrogen in light water. This methodology involves perturbing model parameters of molecular dynamics potentials and fitting the simulation results to experimental data. The framework is general and can be applied to any material or simulation method. The fit is made using the Unified Monte Carlo method to experimentally measure double-differential scattering cross sections of light water at the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Mean values and covariance data were generated for model parameters, phonon density of states, double-differential cross sections, and total scattering cross sections. These posterior parameter values were very similar to their prior values with a maximum relative error of 0.54%. This falls within in the Unified Monte Carlo–calculated uncertainties on the order of 2.7%. Additionally, posterior double-differential cross sections agree favorably with ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross sections. The new thermal scattering law was tested by comparing it against benchmarks from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook, which showed a slight improvement over the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library. Additionally, the covariance matrix of the phonon density of states was validated to confirm that the spread of k eff from the density of states used to generate the covariance matrix was similar to the spread of k eff from the density of states of the sampled covariance matrix.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

FluxSat: Long-term Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) for Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) based on satellite data calibrated with eddy covariance data

Gross primary production (GPP), the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) assimilated by plants through photosynthesis, is one of the most variable and uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Global GPP has been estimated with a number of process-based models, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), driven by observed environmental changes, are used for global carbon budget assessments and long-term (climate) prediction. Benchmarking these and other models globally with data-driven GPP estimates is critical for understanding the land sink and ensuring accurate forecasts of the carbon cycle. In addition, global data-driven GPP estimates are crucial for studies of interannual variability, including trends that are linked to mechanisms with large uncertainties, such as the indirect CO 2 fertilization effect related to greening. In response to a community need for a GPP data set that well captures spatio-temporal variability, we developed FluxSat, a data-driven approach that optimizes the use of satellite reflectance data from the NASA MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites, calibrated using ground-based eddy covariance (EC) data. We are enhancing (spatially, higher resolution) and extending FluxSat (in time, with additional sensors) to create a high quality long term GPP Earth System Data Record (ESDR) for use in model benchmarking, carbon cycle modeling, and studies of trends and interannual variability. Our team’s objectives are to: 1. Update and document the current MODIS FluxSat GPP (daily, 0.05o and 0.5o resolutions) products with latest available MODIS and EC data sets; 2. Extend FluxSat GPP record forward in time with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on operational weather satellites going forward; 3. Extend FluxSat GPP record backward in time using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on weather satellites dating back to 1981; 4. Provide higher spatial resolution MODIS and VIIRS GPP (0.0083o). 5. Thoroughly evaluate all FluxSat products with independent data; and 6. Create a homogenized long-term GPP record spanning 40+ years. We will discuss plans for this long-term data set that is supported through the NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program.

gross Primary Production↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Nuclear Data Covariances on Integral Experiment Design with Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) uses MCNP6.2 and the Whisper code for criticality safety analyses of the Hanford Tank Farm. Together the codes derive baseline upper subcritical limits (USLs) for the waste models using experimental benchmarks. Whisper returns higher USLs, i.e. , has less of a conservative penalty, when the neutronic similarity of the experimental benchmarks to the application is high. Unfortunately, few critical benchmarks have high similarity to the Hanford tanks. The waste in the tanks is highly dilute in plutonium and contains large masses of weakly neutron-absorbing elements like iron and manganese. Experimental benchmarks typically have low sensitivity to these absorbers because they are present as structural materials. Lacking similar benchmarks, new Thermal Epithermal eXperiment (TEX) configurations with high Pu content and interstitial iron absorbers have been designed for the criticality safety validation. The features of the design have been iterated upon to maximize the similarity between the experiment and different Hanford waste models. The similarity is quantified with sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification using the representativity coefficient, or c k . The representativity calculation requires nuclear data covariances, which may differ between nuclear data libraries and between library versions. Because of these variations, the optimal design may depend on the nuclear data covariances library. A scenario can be envisioned where an experiment is designed, and c k is maximized, with one set of covariance data. However, when the covariance data is changed, say from ENDF/B-VII.1 to ENDF/B-VIII.0, and the benchmark is used in a criticality safety evaluation, the experiment becomes suboptimal with respect to c k . In this paper, we present how the optimal design of the new TEX experiments varied depending on the nuclear data covariances used to calculate c k . We compare ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0, as if the library had been updated since the design of the experiment. Additionally, we use JEFF3.3 to simulate if the covariance data of a different library had been used. The results show that the covariances do have an important effect on the designs, less so for thermal systems (where the data are more consistent between evaluations) and more so for epithermal systems where more differences exist.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data The first iteration [Slides]

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data The first iteration [Slides]

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data: The first iteration

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Study of the Covariance Data in ENDF/B VIII.0 for Low Z Isotopes

Thirty group covariance data have been produced from ENDF/B VIII.0 MF 33 for H1, H2, He4, Li6, Li7, Be9, B10, B11, C12, C13, N15, O16, the JENDL O16 and F19. Multi-group cross section covariance data was produced by NJOY routine ERRORR. Negative eigenvalues were found only for F19, but the covariance constraints required for the condition of the sum of partial cross sections being equal to the resultant total cross section were found to be incorrect for H2, Li6, B10, C12, C13, and O16. An easy correction is suggested for Li6 and C13. In closing, an expansion of the ENDF-6 formats manual is suggested for the MF 33 chapter and a new proposed covariance normalization scheme is proposed.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Covariance Data Development and Testing for Advanced Reactors

This report documents the ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariance data development and testing performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory performed under the auspices of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy. This work supports modeling and simulation of advanced reactor designs in the US by analyzing, validating and improving the nuclear data that provide underlying physics for calculations. This report assesses nuclear data uncertainty information for neutron cross sections, provided in the form of covariance matrices, in the 2018 ENDF/B-VIII.0 library. A review and interpretation of some of the issues with the current covariance library is provided. A new approach to augment the ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariance matrix to accurately reflect uncertainties in the results of modeling and simulation reliant on the current nuclear data library is documented. Rigorous testing of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariance data is documented. Finally, the performance of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariance data for advanced reactor applications is assessed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Covariance Data in Unresolved Range [Slides]

This presentation touches on the covariance data in unresolved range. This presentation talks about how the URR has several limitations and the focus on covariance information. The talk briefly outlines the limitations and fosters a discussion that can lead to format proposals.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Production and use of nuclear parameter covariance data: an overview of challenging cross cutting scientific issues

Nuclear data users’ requirements for uncertainty data started already in the seventies, when several fast reactor projects did use extensively “statistical data adjustments” to meet data improvement for core and shielding design. However, it was only ~20–30 years later that a major effort started to produce scientifically based covariance data and in particular since ~2005. Most work has been done since then with spectacular achievements and enhanced understanding both of the uncertainty evaluation process and of the data utilization in V&V. This paper summarizes some key developments and still open challenges.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

WPEC SG44 Subgroup Report: Investigation of Covariance Data in General Purpose Nuclear Data Libraries [Slides]

Presentations were as follows: Progress on the Development of Thermal Scattering Covariance Formats, New Paradigm for Nuclear Data Evaluation, The Role of Fission Yield Correlations to Obtain Realistic Uncertainty Values in the Summation Method, ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data: The First Iteration, Status and Requirements of Nuclear Data Variance-Covariance Matrices for the Neutronic Assessment of Fast Reactor Cores, The Identification and Treatment of Unrecognized Uncertainties and the Impact on Evaluated Uncertainties– SG44, Improved Calibration of Nuclear Resonance Parameters, Report on the CSEWG Covariance and Measurement Session Initiative on Creating Templates of Expected Measurement Uncertainties, The Nuclear Data Belief Network, Investigation of Covariance Data in General Purpose Nuclear Data Libraries, and Computational Benchmark Proposal.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

5-10 Years Cross-cutting Priorities on the Topic of Nuclear Data Covariances and Uncertainty Quantification for Users

The goal of this meeting was to draft a whitepaper on prioritized nuclear data covariance and uncertainty quantification needs impacting users for the next 5 to 10 years. These needs are described herein in an actionable context (i.e., a high-level plan is given to address them), and are feasible for the community to tackle the need (i.e., high-level idea of funding is provided). It should be noted that each of these proposed projects are ideal for training new nuclear data evaluators who are also integrated into application needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

THE INFLUENCE OF CHANGES IN NUCLEAR COVARIANCE DATA ON THE CALCULATION OF Ck FOR HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM SOLUTION SYSTEMS

Since their initial development nearly 20 years ago, sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) techniques have been increasingly applied to criticality safety validation. These techniques can generally be applied quickly and for a range of purposes after the initial investment of calculating sensitivities for a safety analysis model and a range of potential benchmark experiments. This paper discusses these applications and how they have been affected by changes in covariance data libraries.Critical experiment selection is the most prominent area in which S/U methods impact validation efforts. These methods allow for rigorous calculation of similarity between safety analysis models and potential benchmarks. The most widely used of these methods is the integral parameter ck, although other integral parameters such as E and some non-integral parameters have also been explored. The ck parameter calculates the fraction of nuclear data–induced uncertainty shared between an application and an experiment; this metric is predicated on the assessment that nuclear data errors are the most likely source of computational bias. Therefore, values of ck are inherently dependent on the nuclear covariance library used to calculate them and inevitably change when these data change.Past studies have shown how much the ck values can vary, especially in difficult validation cases like burnup credit. These significant changes are the result of differences in the relative uncertainties of nuclides with large sensitivities, and they imply differences in benchmark applicability to the safety analysis model. This paper demonstrates that more common criticality safety models involving single fissile species have significantly less variability of ck between covariance libraries, thus enhancing confidence in the application of S/U methods for experiment selection in these scenarios. This paper presents case studies examining the impact of these changes on some hypothetical safety analysis systems.

Clarity, Justin↗