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Mission Assurance Modeling and Simulation: A Cyber Security Roadmap

This paper proposes a cyber security modeling and simulation roadmap to enhance mission assurance governance and establish risk reduction processes within constrained budgets. The term mission assurance stems from risk management work by Carnegie Mellon's Software Engineering Institute in the late 19905. By 2010, the Defense Information Systems Agency revised its cyber strategy and established the Program Executive Officer-Mission Assurance. This highlights a shift from simply protecting data to balancing risk and begins a necessary dialogue to establish a cyber security roadmap. The Military Operations Research Society has recommended a cyber community of practice, recognizing there are too few professionals having both cyber and analytic experience. The authors characterize the limited body of knowledge in this symbiotic relationship. This paper identifies operational and research requirements for mission assurance M&S supporting defense and homeland security. M&S techniques are needed for enterprise oversight of cyber investments, test and evaluation, policy, training, and analysis.

Gendron, Gerald

Development of alternative data analysis techniques for improving the accuracy and specificity of natural resource inventories made with digital remote sensing data

An investigation was conducted into ways to improve the involvement of state and local user personnel in the digital image analysis process by isolating those elements of the analysis process which require extensive involvement by field personnel and providing means for performing those activities apart from a computer facility. In this way, the analysis procedure can be converted from a centralized activity focused on a computer facility to a distributed activity in which users can interact with the data at the field office level or in the field itself. A general image processing software was developed on the University of Minnesota computer system (Control Data Cyber models 172 and 74). The use of color hardcopy image data as a primary medium in supervised training procedures was investigated and digital display equipment and a coordinate digitizer were procured.

Lillesand, T. M.

Ocean modelling on the CYBER 205 at GFDL

At the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, research is carried out for the purpose of understanding various aspects of climate, such as its variability, predictability, stability and sensitivity. The atmosphere and oceans are modelled mathematically and their phenomenology studied by computer simulation methods. The present state-of-the-art in the computer simulation of large scale oceans on the CYBER 205 is discussed. While atmospheric modelling differs in some aspects, the basic approach used is similar. The equations of the ocean model are presented along with a short description of the numerical techniques used to find their solution. Computational considerations and a typical solution are presented in section 4.

Cox, M.

Analyzing Cyber Security Threats on Cyber-Physical Systems Using Model-Based Systems Engineering

The spectre of cyber attacks on aerospace systems can no longer be ignored given that many of the components and vulnerabilities that have been successfully exploited by the adversary on other infrastructures are the same as those deployed and used within the aerospace environment. An important consideration with respect to the mission/safety critical infrastructure supporting space operations is that an appropriate defensive response to an attack invariably involves the need for high precision and accuracy, because an incorrect response can trigger unacceptable losses involving lives and/or significant financial damage. A highly precise defensive response, considering the typical complexity of aerospace environments, requires a detailed and well-founded understanding of the underlying system where the goal of the defensive response is to preserve critical mission objectives in the presence of adversarial activity. In this paper, a structured approach for modeling aerospace systems is described. The approach includes physical elements, network topology, software applications, system functions, and usage scenarios. We leverage Model-Based Systems Engineering methodology by utilizing the Object Management Group's Systems Modeling Language to represent the system being analyzed and also utilize model transformations to change relevant aspects of the model into specialized analyses. A novel visualization approach is utilized to visualize the entire model as a three-dimensional graph, allowing easier interaction with subject matter experts. The model provides a unifying structure for analyzing the impact of a particular attack or a particular type of attack. Two different example analysis types are demonstrated in this paper: a graph-based propagation analysis based on edge labels, and a graph-based propagation analysis based on node labels.

MBSE

Developing Deep Learning Models for System Remaining Useful Life Predictions: Application to Aircraft Engines

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an important part of ensuring reliable operations of complex safety- critical systems. System-level remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a much more complex problem than making estimations at the component level, and system-level RUL methodologies remain sparse in the literature. Model-based approaches have traditionally worked in the past for components such as capacitors, MOSFETs, batteries, or hard-drives (to name a few examples), but developing high fidelity dynamics models of cyber physical systems that can be used to study the effects of multiple degrading components in the system remains a challenging task. Some initial work on model-based System RUL predictions was demonstrated in Khorasgani, et al [1], but, to generalize the system-level prognostics problem, we have to resort to pure data driven and hybrid approaches. In this work, we propose an end-to-end data- driven framework for developing deep learning models to predict remaining useful life of cyber physical systems operating under unknown faulty conditions. The raw data is organized with a data schema that improves the model development process and down stream data analysis tasks. Due to the unknown faulty conditions, the raw sensor data is transformed into signals that expose the underlying degradation processes, which are then used for model development. Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the model parameters prior to training and validation. We show that this approach results in accurate predictions within 3 cycles to end of life (EOL). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the N-CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset recently released by NASA, which includes high fidelity degradation modeling, real world operating conditions, and a large set of fault operating modes.

Prognostics

Model Development Highlight for 1984: The GLA Fourth Order GCM

A number of improvements have been made to the GLA Fourth Order General Circulation Model and its associated run procedures during the past year. Major development efforts have been carried out in the following areas: (1) model resolution; (2) boundary fields and topography; (3) post-processing of model results on CYBER computer; and (4) model source code.

Pfaendtner, J.

Bridging the Gap Between Requirements and Model Analysis: Evaluation on Cyber-Physical Challenge Problems

We present a framework for introducing high-level requirement specifications in the automated analysis of dataflow models. By integrating the FRET requirements elicitation tool with the CoCoSim analyzer, our framework enables the analysis of hierarchical Simulink models against requirements written in a restricted English language. More precisely, we support: automatic extraction of Simulink model information and association of high-level requirements with target model signals and components; translation of temporal logic formulas into synchronous dataflow CoCoSpec specifications as well as Simulink monitors; and interpretation of counterexamples produced by the analysis both at the requirement and model level. The features provided by our framework are generic and can be used to integrate other requirements elicitation and Simulink/Lustre analysis tools. We report on the lessons learned from the application of our approach to the Lockheed Martin Cyber-Physical, aerospace-inspired challenge problems. For the analysis, we used the Kind2, Zustre, and Simulink Design Verifier (SLDV) tools.

Simulink

Algorithms for solving large sparse systems of simultaneous linear equations on vector processors

Very efficient algorithms for solving large sparse systems of simultaneous linear equations have been developed for serial processing computers. These involve a reordering of matrix rows and columns in order to obtain a near triangular pattern of nonzero elements. Then an LU factorization is developed to represent the matrix inverse in terms of a sequence of elementary Gaussian eliminations, or pivots. In this paper it is shown how these algorithms are adapted for efficient implementation on vector processors. Results obtained on the CYBER 200 Model 205 are presented for a series of large test problems which show the comparative advantages of the triangularization and vector processing algorithms.

David, R. E.

Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general calculation model. Volume 3: Vectorized code for the Cyber 205

Volume 3 of a 3-volume technical memoranda which contains documentation of the GLAS fourth order genera circulation model is presented. The volume contains the CYBER 205 scalar and vector codes of the model, list of variables, and cross references. A dictionary of FORTRAN variables used in the Scalar Version, and listings of the FORTRAN Code compiled with the C-option, are included. Cross reference maps of local variables are included for each subroutine.

Kalnay, E.

Preliminary results in implementing a model of the world economy on the CYBER 205: A case of large sparse nonsymmetric linear equations

A brief description of the Model of the World Economy implemented at the Institute for Economic Analysis is presented, together with our experience in converting the software to vector code. For each time period, the model is reduced to a linear system of over 2000 variables. The matrix of coefficients has a bordered block diagonal structure, and we show how some of the matrix operations can be carried out on all diagonal blocks at once.

Szyld, D. B.

Bridging the Gap Between Requirements and Model Analysis : Evaluation on Ten Cyber-Physical Challenge Problems

Formal verfication and simulation are powerful tools to validate requirements against complex systems. [Problem] Requirements are developed in early stages of the software lifecycle and are typically written in ambiguous natural language. There is a gap between such requirements and formal notations that can be used by verification tools, and lack of support for proper association of requirements with software artifacts for verification. [Principal idea] We propose to write requirements in an intuitive, structured natural language with formal semantics, and to support formalization and model/code verification as a smooth, well-integrated process. [Contribution] We have developed an end-to-end, open source requirements analysis framework that checks Simulink models against requirements written in structured natural language. Our framework is built in the Formal Requirements Elicitation Tool (fret); we use fret's requirements language named fretish, and formalization of fretish requirements in temporal logics. Our proposed framework contributes the following features: 1) automatic extraction of Simulink model information and association of fretish requirements with target model signals and components; 2) translation of temporal logic formulas into synchronous dataflow cocospec specifications as well as Simulink monitors, to be used by verification tools; we establish correctness of our translation through extensive automated testing; 3) interpretation of counterexamples produced by verification tools back at requirements level. These features support a tight integration and feedback loop between high level requirements and their analysis. We demonstrate our approach on a major case study: the Ten Lockheed Martin Cyber-Physical, aerospace-inspired challenge problems.

Mavridou, Anastasia

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems

SimCheck: An Expressive Type System for Simulink

MATLAB Simulink is a member of a class of visual languages that are used for modeling and simulating physical and cyber-physical systems. A Simulink model consists of blocks with input and output ports connected using links that carry signals. We extend the type system of Simulink with annotations and dimensions/units associated with ports and links. These types can capture invariants on signals as well as relations between signals. We define a type-checker that checks the wellformedness of Simulink blocks with respect to these type annotations. The type checker generates proof obligations that are solved by SRI's Yices solver for satisfiability modulo theories (SMT). This translation can be used to detect type errors, demonstrate counterexamples, generate test cases, or prove the absence of type errors. Our work is an initial step toward the symbolic analysis of MATLAB Simulink models.

Roy, Pritam

Computational Models of Trustworthiness and Trust in Autonomous Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper, we propose an approach to developing a concept of actionable trust in multi-agent,cyber-physical-human systems in safety-critical and time-critical environment of air transportation. Actionable trust requires computational models of trustworthiness and trust, for use during system design and in real time, during operations. We describe the models, examine their computability and scalability, as well as what remains to be done.

Autonomous Systems

Analysis and Monitoring of Cyber-Physical Systems via Environmental Domain Knowledge & Modeling

While verifying adherence to a specification (i.e., specification-based testing) is important, the results are only as valid as the specification itself. Problematically, verifying a system specification must be done within the context of changing or even unknown environmental domain knowledge that could render the specification ineffective or incorrect. This issue is even more apparent in the context of self-adaptive systems, where uncertainty in both the system configuration and environment can impact the validity of the system. This paper introduces a method to explicitly model domain knowledge of the environment as a secondary system to enable design-time verification against documented environmental assumptions (i.e., those elements external to the system). In addition, run-time monitors are used to detect scenarios in the actual environment not specified by the modeled environmental domain knowledge. Rather than simply identifying unexpected inputs, our approach is able to identify run-time violations of the environmental domain knowledge, even when inputs appear valid based on the domain assumptions embedded in the system specification. These violations can then be used to correspondingly update the system and environmental specifications via automated run-time adaptation or subsequent design-time revisions. We illustrate our approach by applying our method to a running example of a goal-based model of a baby monitor.

Byron DeVries

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks