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A Privacy First Path Analysis using Clickstream Data

In the modern digital economy, data-driven decision making is crucial for effectively meeting the ever-evolving demands of consumer engagement and satisfaction. Clickstream data has become invaluable for understanding customer behavior, yet concerns over privacy and security persist, especially with some internet service providers profiting from its sale. This article introduces an innovative methodology that blends experiential learning with advanced cryptographic techniques, including differential privacy and graph analytics. The core objective of this methodology is to estimate Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) by analyzing clickstream data, achieving an average prediction accuracy of 92.4% in user engagement levels while ensuring user anonymity through Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) analysis. Our study introduces the concept of a “data depositor” and a privacy manager, employing the composition theorem to merge non-adaptive queries effectively. Privacy budgets (? = 1.0, d = 10-5), sensitivity-specific techniques, and data partitioning were applied. Randomization and noise addition protect data integrity, with special handling for categorical values. This approach, differing from prior studies, offers a 12.6% improvement in privacy-preserving targeting accuracy while maintaining strict confidentiality, presenting a novel path forward in data-driven decision-making.

Frequency and Monetary (RFM) analysis↗

Modeling and Analysis of Clean Energy and Storage Technologies (CRADA Final Report, Project 1)

The goal of this project is to provide Southern Company Services, Inc. ("Participant") with custom scripts that can be used to create an average PV energy production profile, calculate lifetime energy value, calculate capacity value, and calculate the resultant financial metrics considering those value streams. Secondly, a fuel-cell model will be added to the public version of System Advisor Model (SAM). This standalone technology will incorporate PV and battery storage, allowing the participant to model the interaction of these three technologies. By adding this capability to a public version of SAM, a broad audience will be able to consider the system performance and financial benefits of installing a fuel cell as a baseline generator with PV. Thirdly, automated dispatch algorithms will be developed and added to SAM. These algorithms will enable Southern Company to dispatch a DC-connected front-of-the-meter battery system while considering price signals and PV clipping behavior. By adding these capabilities to a public version of SAM, users will be able to consider more complex and realistic ways of dispatching a battery system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range in value of all the components of avoided costs across the locations studied. -Of the five energy efficiency measures studied, those targeting residential air conditioning in summer-peaking electric systems have the most significant added value when the total time-varying value is considered. -The increased use of rooftop solar systems, storage, and demand response, and the addition of electric vehicles and other major new electricity-consuming end uses are anticipated to significantly alter the load shape of many utility systems in the future. Data used to estimate the impact of energy efficiency measures on electric system peak demands will need to be updated periodically to accurately reflect the value of savings as system load shapes change. -Publicly available components of electric system costs avoided through energy efficiency are not uniform across states and utilities. Inclusion or exclusion of these components and differences in their value affect estimates of the time-varying value of energy efficiency. -Publicly available data on end-use load and energy savings shapes are limited, are concentrated regionally, and should be expanded.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

We Just Want to Pump…You Up! Forecasting Grid-Connected Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Savings and Load Shifting Potential for the Southeast U.S.

Heat pump water heaters (HPWH) can achieve energy savings of 60-70% compared to conventional electric-resistance water heaters. However, even with a favorable simple payback period within the typical product lifetime, HPWHs make up only 1% of all electric water heaters sold in the residential sector. Market adoption is challenged, in part, by the lack of effective energy efficiency programs in the U.S. region with the greatest amount of residential electric water heaters. The recent integration of connected functionality into HPWHs offers the capability to shift load without undue negative impact on customers. This capability can provide value to utilities with peak load constraints, motivating them to promote HPWHs for the first time. This paper will present a methodology to forecast connected HPWH energy use and extrapolate load shifting potential for the Southeast U.S. region. The methodology leverages data from a robust connected HPWH field study conducted in the Pacific Northwest. A coefficient of performance (COP) relationship for HPWHs was developed using ambient and inlet water temperature data to forecast HPWH performance on a month-by-month basis. Using the forecasted COP, HPWH operating hours were calculated for meeting load, which serve as the proxy to extrapolate load shifting potential from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. As a use case, analytical results are presented for a specific utility. This methodology, in combination with market analysis, facilitates the development of customized energy savings and load shifting forecasts to understand the potential impacts of launching connected HPWH programs in specific utility service territories.

heat pump water heater, energy savings, load shift↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2022

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: -Discount rate estimation methods and rationale -Data sources used and data limitations -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis A version of this analysis was most recently released in 2022. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Flexible FlueCO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions remain a significant challenge on the path to clean energy. There are increasing legislative, social, and environmental factors motivating CO2 emissions reduction from power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS in natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants is critical to achieve a net-zero carbon electricity grid. Enhanced 45Q tax credits provide new incentives, but currently available technologies are unable to profitably operate in grids with deep variable renewable penetration which require flexible NGCC operation. Luna Labs has developed the FlueCO2 membrane to enable a profitable NGCC-CCS process. The FlueCO2 membrane couples steam transport across the membrane to CO2 transport in the opposite direction, enabling high capture efficiencies and low energy costs even at low CO2 concentrations. The dual-phase membrane can operate in the range of typical flue gas temperatures and pressures and does not require temperature or pressure cycling. Luna Labs’ FlueCO2 technology enables flexible and profitable operation of NGCC plants with lower capital investment and impact on electricity prices. In this Phase 1 project, Luna Labs utilized experimental testing, modeling, process simulation, and standardized costing methodologies to evaluate the techno-economic value of a 650 MW greenfield NGCC plant with FlueCO2 (NGCC-FlueCO2). Key design requirements for operation were established and plant performance under load-leveling conditions was validated through computational fluid dynamics and process modeling. Luna Labs developed a dynamic modeling tool which modeled plant operational modes across a variety of tax structures and electricity pricing scenarios to project the overall Net Present Value (NPV) of the NGCC-FlueCO2. FlueCO2 minimizes the impact of CCS integration on plant operation by integrating directly into the NGCC heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). By tapping into the plant’s low-pressure (LP) steam, operators can divert LP steam to the greenfield NGCC and/or CCS process in response to dynamic markets. Since FlueCO2 will not significantly affect HRSG (or NGCC) operation, CCS only turns off during peak power demand (>$250/MWh). Under baseload conditions, FlueCO2 lowers the capital (37%), energy (36%) and carbon capture (<$40/tonne) costs and can increase the overall plant lifetime NPV by approximately ~$1B in comparison with NGCC solvent-based capture reference cases (NETL Case 31B). Luna Labs has shared its costing tools with several interested partners and customers, which follows a generalizable approach to costing analysis.

Kelly, Jesse↗

Markets and Economic Requirements for Fission Batteries and Other Nuclear Systems

Fission Batteries (FBs) are nuclear reactors defined by five characteristics which enable large-scale deployment: cost competitive, standardized sizes for economic mass production, easy installation and removal, secure and safe unattended operation with high reliability. FBs are not defined by technology or power level. Technical and market considerations suggest that most FBs will produce 20 to 30 MWt. This proceedings reports on the outcomes of two workshops that were held in January 2021 to better define markets and economic challenges for FBs. Three major markets were identified. The largest market is the industrial and commercial heat market. There are about 4000 industrial users (excluding utilities) that require more than one megawatt of heat. The number of customers versus size of heat demand was determined. In a low-carbon world there is the potential for many additional customers—including expanded biofuels production and district heat. The second market is for non-grid electricity. This includes co-generation plants that produce heat and electricity for a single customer. The third market is the maritime market with ~100,000 ships worldwide. In the United States, natural gas is the low-cost energy option today and will remain so unless constraints or taxes impact its use. If restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, the FB competition includes natural gas with carbon capture, biofuels, hydrogen and grid electricity. Natural gas with carbon capture is not economically viable on a small scale. Biofuels may be expensive but may be the economically preferred option for locations with small energy demands of a few megawatts. Hydrogen is a potential competitor with many of the characteristics of natural gas. Grid electricity is not a competitive source of heat. For FBs to be economically competitive, the price of delivered heat must be $20-50/MWh ($6-15/million BTU). The economically competitive range for non-grid electricity is estimated at $70-100/MWh. These electricity prices are competitive with the retail prices of electricity in many parts of the United States for the customer. FBs are not expected to be competitive selling wholesale electricity to the grid. To achieve the aforementioned cost targets for heat and electricity markets, FB designers must (1) maximize the power output within the constraints of a FB (e.g., truck transportability, passive decay heat removal), (2) drastically reduce the size of onsite staff, (3) adopt core designs with low fuel costs (enrichment and fabrication), and (4) develop a system design that is efficiently manufactured in factories. The business case depends upon more than being just a replacement for natural gas. The largest incentives for adoption of FBs is where they create new markets and new sources of revenue. An example is the paper and pulp industry that burns biomass wastes to provide heat and electricity to make paper. An external heat source could meet the demand for heat and electricity by the paper process and enable converting waste biomass into liquid biofuels rather than burning to provide heat. Other markets, such as data centers, are driven by special energy requirements such as extreme reliability. Most customers are not in the energy business but need heat and electricity to produce a product—a manufactured good, education, retail sales (shopping malls), marine transport or some other product. As a consequence, there will be large incentives to lease rather than own FBs. Leasing avoids the regulatory challenges that remain with the owner of the FB. Leasing creates large incentives for FP standardization of sizes and transportability to maintain the value of the FB at the end of the lease—similar to the leasing of jet engines and aircraft. The economic constraints combined with technical constraints suggest competitive FBs will likely have outputs exceeding 10 MWt. There appear to be little incentives for very long-lived reactor cores because such machines require much larger inventories of fuel. Maintenance requirements and the options to provide technology updates may favor shorter lifetimes (~5 years). The assessment is that there is the potential for FBs to be economically viable and play a major role in global decarbonization in three markets: heat, non-grid electricity and maritime applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines: Preprint

The global geothermal electricity market has significantly grown over the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 GWe in 2021 (GEA, 2016). Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. In particular, the turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. This study focuses on analysis of the global supply chain and manufacturing costs for Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) turboexpanders and steam turbines used in geothermal power plants. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). MSP is the minimum price that a company must sell its product for in order to pay back the capital and operating expenses during the plant lifetime (CEMAC, 2017). The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 dollar/kW and 30 dollar/kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. Sensitivity analysis indicated these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

The global geothermal electricity market has significantly grown over the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 GWe in 2021 (GEA, 2016). Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. In particular, the turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. This study focuses on analysis of the global supply chain and manufacturing costs for Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) turboexpanders and steam turbines used in geothermal power plants. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). MSP is the minimum price that a company must sell its product for in order to pay back the capital and operating expenses during the plant lifetime (CEMAC, 2017). The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 dollar/kW and 30 dollar/kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. Sensitivity analysis indicated these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Transactive System Program Communication System Cost Model

Transactive energy is an economics and controls technique that aims to dynamically manage the generation and consumption of electricity within the power system. Much research has been done in the area of demonstrating the capability and performance of transactive systems, as well as valuing the benefits a transactive system can provide. Significantly less research has been done in the area of estimating the costs of a transactive system. This work aimed to build a model that would estimate the costs of the communications system that would be necessary to support a transactive system and be realized by a local utility. Dynamic pricing, and a customer’s response to this pricing, is a key aspect of a transactive system; this would require a two-way communication system between utilities and customers. Since the system will vary based on many factors, the cost model was consequently designed for use in a wide variety of applications. The cost model requires some basic user inputs regarding the system being analyzed, such as location and size. The user also identifies one or more generic circuit models that best represent the system. Additionally, a user can, but is not required to, change assumed equipment and installation costs and equipment lifetime within the model. These inputs will result in 20 year cost estimates for three different communication technologies that are capable of supporting the bandwidth needs of a transactive energy system. The three communication systems included in the model are cellular, fiber optic and wireless mesh. Each vary significantly from one another and offer unique advantages and barriers. A cellular network avoids high upfront costs, but is limited to areas where there is coverage by the service provider and subject to the ongoing rate established with the service provider. A fiber optic system requires a large up-front cost, but it will provide a reliable system to areas where cellular and mesh may be unable to do so. Additionally, fiber provides more bandwidth than necessary for transactive systems and can offer additional business opportunities. A mesh system can be installed for less upfront costs than fiber and offers enough bandwidth to support a transactive system, but the ability to model this technology is done with less certainty than the other two options. The estimated costs include the communication system that connects the customers to their nearest substation, in addition to the smart meter and radio that would be required for each customer. The communications from the substation to the utility are not included in estimates, as the need for upgrading that system would be assessed on a case-by-case basis. Although the cost of the smart meter and radio is included, no other appliance specific cost is included in the estimate provided by the model. The communication system is a key aspect of the development of a transactive system. This work resulted in easily being able to estimate the costs of a communication system specific to the system being studied. This cost model will aid ongoing valuation and simulation work in the field of transactive energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Agent-Based Coordination Scheme for PV Integration (ABC4PV)

Renewables and especially photovoltaics (PV) have benefitted significantly from a host of incentives and policies targeted toward enhanced integration and adoption of specific energy technologies. However, with the push to move forward into a subsidy-free market framework, behind-the-meter residential PV applications have generally struggled to retain their value (unlike utility scale and commercial projects) [1]. This project focused on developing control-theoretic solutions aimed at improving the integration and interaction of behind-the-meter residential PV with other distribution system assets (controllable and non-controllable) to enhance the integrated value of residential PV. To this end, a suite of decentralized control methodologies have been developed to enable effective coordination and control of behind-the-meter residential load customers’ PV, battery storage systems (BSS), controllable loads and other similar assets within a distribution feeder. This interaction aims at procuring energy savings and, thus, energy bill savings. The main source of savings is drawn from reducing the effect of demand charge pricing and is realized at the feeder level, assuming community level interaction and management among the aforementioned assets. Optimal control of the assets is implemented with a distributed optimization methodology, leveraging consensus-based algorithms. The results gathered from the optimal control simulations demonstrates that the savings can be duly achieved and the algorithm decision times (to dynamically control asset set points, for example) are fast. As for the overall efficiency of PV+BSS systems, to procure energy savings from curtailment of the demand charge pricing effects, the optimal control is set up so as to minimize the variance of the load for all customers, throughout a feeder and throughout time in a rolling horizon scheduling with model predictive control. The control takes into account inter-temporal electrochemical storage (battery) degradation costs: specifically, we have developed a long-term lifetime model for the BSS that weighs in the effect of the degradation factor in the dispatch formulations, thus, a considerable operating cost that affects energy decision making. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE – redefined for the purpose of quantifying asset integration effectiveness through the customers’ energy cost) is shown to be below the threshold set for the combined PV+BSS topology of $ 0.14/kWh for multiple cases of PV penetration all the way up to 50%, provided that a policy of shared ownership of and savings is in place. Further, the LCOE calculated for the case before the deployment PV+BSS systems is also achievable, i.e. the deployment of PV+BSS, if planned and scheduled optimally. will have no effect on customers’ energy costs. From the control methodology viewpoint, the developed consensus-based algorithms are shown to converge for a wide range of problem cases (spanning normal operating scenarios and contingencies), guaranteeing dispatch solutions under forecasting errors, communication break-downs and cyber-security attacks. The proposed control solutions are scalable and real-time implementable, with dispatch computations and device set-point updates converging in less than 2s in most practical instances of the above events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A New Method for Low Cost Production of Titanium Alloys for Reducing Energy Consumption of Mechanical Systems

This project investigated an innovative manufacturing process intended to minimize the cost of production of titanium materials and components, and increase the adoption of Ti components for energy consuming applications, such as automobiles. A key innovation of the proposed manufacturing approach is a novel Ti powder sintering technology for making titanium materials with ultrafine grain microstructure in the as-sintered state with minimum, or an absence, of post-sintering processes. The new sintering technology is termed Hydrogen Sintering and Phase Transformations (HSPT), and constitutes a promising manufacturing technology that can be used to produce titanium (Ti) materials and components in a near-net-shape form, thus also minimizing machining costs. Our objective was to meet, or possibly surpass, the mechanical property levels for ASTM B348 Grade 5 for wrought Ti-6Al-4V. Although specific applications call for varying mechanical property requirements, ASTM B348 was created for the demanding applications of the aerospace industry, and is the established standard for Ti-6Al-4V. While the primary goal was to meet, or exceed this standard, the team also had the goal of demonstrating this could be done at a significantly lower cost of production. Interim goals of the project were to fully develop this novel sintering process, and provide sufficient baseline testing to make the method practical and attractive to industry. By optimizing the process parameters for the sintering of titanium hydride (TiH 2 ) powders in a hydrogen atmosphere and controlling the phase transformations during and after sintering, the HSPT process was expected to reduce the energy consumption, and thus cost, of making Ti alloys and fabricating Ti components. The process was designed such that no high temperature melting is required for producing Ti alloys; little or no post-sintering processing is needed for producing desired microstructures (and therefore enhanced mechanical properties), and finally, minimum machining is needed to fabricate finished Ti components. An energy analysis within this report provides more detail, but calculated values indicate that the HSPT process is less than half as energy intensive as conventional wrought processing, while producing mechanical properties that are comparable. In addition to the energy savings anticipated from the industrial production of Ti components, a second prong of energy savings resides in the use phase of components produced, primarily from use in the transportation sector. Titanium has a number of material qualities appropriate for the auto industry, particularly low mass and corrosion resistance. By reducing the weight of automobiles and other vehicles, energy costs and CO 2 production will be reduced over the lifetime of the vehicles, and components in corrosive environments on vehicles, such as exhaust systems and other under carriage parts, may not have to be replaced during a vehicle’s lifetime. Our analysis indicates that by replacing only 5.6 kg of steel parts in an auto with Ti components across the entire US fleet would save approximately 486 million gallons of gasoline per year. This correlates to a reduction of 3.6 million metric tons of CO 2 per year. The potential for replacing many more of the steel parts in automobiles with lighter weight titanium components is clear. The project was very successful overall, meeting all milestones and surpassing project goals in terms of mechanical properties and microstructures produced. In addition to tensile properties, fatigue properties were emphasized in the project work. Powder metallurgy processes often have porosity to some degree in their final microstructure, and porosity is a well-known cause of crack initiation and low fatigue performance. Although many automobile applications do not undergo fatigue stress regimes, many others do encounter cyclic stress, and design criteria in the latter case require good fatigue properties. Production and testing of HSPT parts showed excellent tensile properties and fracture toughness, and fatigue properties that exceeded all previously reported powder metallurgy Ti methods, overlapping with wrought processed values. Fatigue limits exceeded 500 MPa and tensile strength exceeded 1,000 MPa while maintaining good ductility. Microstructures produced during the project period easily surpassed pre-project expectations. In addition to producing very fine grains in the as-sintered state (without post sintered thermo-mechanical work), porosity was reduced and industrially relevant microstructures previously undemonstrated in any other powder metallurgy titanium method were produced using HSPT materials. These microstructures, both bi-modal and globularized, were produced with simple post-sinter heat treatments, but without the need for energy intensive mechanical work. The employed heat treatments expanded the available mechanical property range (tensile strength vs. ductility) of the HSPT system in Ti-6Al-4V. The project has resulted in the publication, thus far, of five refereed journal articles and five conference proceedings papers, as well as a patent application, two dissertations and a master’s thesis. Two additional journal articles are currently under review, and at least three others are currently in preparation, with several additional students anticipated to graduate within the coming year. Presentations and papers were a particular focus of the second half of the project, once significant experimentation had been performed and analyzed. As part of our efforts to disseminate information of our results, the Ti research teams within Prof. Fang’s and Prof. Chandran’s research groups had a strong presence at the 13th World Conference on Ti, August 16-20, 2015, in San Diego. Several research groups in the US and in Europe are now performing experiments using the HSPT process. Accompanying efforts to bring HSPT to the Ti community at large, and industry in particular, work has continued with our partners and with other interested industrial Ti users and producers, including Boeing and GKN (a major powder metallurgy parts manufacturer). Commercialization has been a central focus of the final phase of the project, and Reading Alloys signed a provisional licensing agreement in summer of 2015. They are currently seeking an appropriate customer with which to pursue initial parts manufacturing efforts. Other licensing options and partners are continuing to be pursued. The promise of lightweight, strong and corrosion resistant Ti alloys with long fatigue lifetimes for automobile or transportation applications has been the vision of the metal industry since titanium came to the attention of scientists and engineers. The sole limitation of realizing these goals has been cost, which is primarily a function of energy used in production. The HSPT process was shown through this work to be capable of realizing this goal, and facilitating the practical use of titanium in US automotive and other industries.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Solid electrolyte for solid-state batteries: Have lithium-ion batteries reached their technical limit?

With increasing demand for electrical power on a distribution grid lacking storage capabilities, utilities and project developers must stabilize what is currently still intermittent energy production. In fact, over half of utility executives say “the most important emerging energy technology” is energy storage. Advanced, low-cost battery designs are providing promising stationary storage solutions that can ensure reliable, high-quality power for customers, but research challenges and questions lefts. Have lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) reached their technical limit? The industry demands are including high costs, inadequate energy densities, long recharge times, short cycle-life times and safety must be continually addressed. Safety is still the main problem on developing the lithium ion battery.The safety issue must be considered from several aspects, since it would become serious problems, such as an explosion in a Japan Airlines 787 Dreamliner’s cargo hold, due to the battery problem. The combustion is mainly due to the leakage or shortcut of the electrodes, caused by the liquid electrolyte and polymer separator. For this reason, the research on solid electrolyte for replacing the existing liquid electrolyte is very important. The materials used in existing lithium ion battery, such as a separator and liquid electrolyte must be replaced to new solid electrolytes, solid materials that exhibits high ionic conductivity. Due to these reasons, research on solid state ionics materials have been vastly growing worldwide, with the main aim not only to search new solid electrolyte to replace the liquid one, but also looking for low cost materials and environmentally friendly. A revolutionary paradigm is also required to design new stable anode and cathode materials that provide electrochemical cells with high energy, high power, long lifetime and adequate safety at competitive manufacturing costs. Lithium superionic conductors, which can be used as solid electrolytes, promise the potential to replace organic liquid electrolytes and thereby improve the safety of next-generation high-energy batteries. Li{sub 3}PO{sub 4} has been proved to be a good candidate for solid electrolyte, due to its easy in preparation, low cost, high melting temperature and good compatibility with the electrode materials. In the present work, Li{sub 3}PO{sub 4} has been prepared by wet chemical reaction, a simple method with the advantage of recycling a waste product H{sub 3}PO{sub 4}. The crystal structure has been characterized by both neutron and x-ray diffraction. The use of neutron scattering plays important role on observing the light atoms such as lithium ion. The x-ray diffraction results showed the crystal structure of orthorhombic phase P m n 21 (31), that belongs to the β-Li{sub 3}PO{sub 4}, with the lattice parameters are a = 6.123872, b = 5.250211, c = 4.876378. The conductivity of β-Li{sub 3}PO{sub 4} was around 10{sup −8} S/cm. Furthermore, the future application of the solid electrolyte layer in lithium ion battery will also be considered. It is concluded that the used of local resources on producing the solid electrolyte Li{sub 3}PO{sub 4} for lithium ion battery will give more added values to the researches and national industry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗